Webinar 31st July

Featured

You may know that I hosted a webinar in June. Just some basic principles that I apply to my own trading and I wanted to share.

The webinar was a great success and the feedback I received was overwhelmingly positive. This has inspired me to hold another one.

I have cleared a space in my diary for Wednesday evening 31st July 2019

What I found during the last webinar was the amount of questions that were flying at me. Mostly random. It seems that many of you have a thirst for information.

I would ask that if you wish to take part that you simply subscribe to my email list. Due to the GDPR rules Aweber who host my email subscriptions will send what is known as a opt in email to confirm you want to receive emails from me. I cannot resend these and you will need to confirm once you have subscribed. These will almost always end up in spam, so be warned.

A few days before the webinar I will email my whole mailing list and invite you to register with Zoom for the webinar. Places are limited.

I invite you to email me at steve@itsamugsblog.co.uk with any questions or topic you would like me to discuss. I will do my best to fit as many as I can in. I will as always answer with honesty and a smidgin of humour.

If this is something that interests you. Make sure you are on my mailing list by next weekend 27th July. If you are not sure if you are, simply drop me a line at the above email.

Lets get these questions/ Topics in!

Cheers
Steve

Ask Steve Question

Featured

I have a question from Chris

“If you were starting from scratch in 2019, what steps would you take
i.e. which sports would you trade, how to identify a good educator and
learning about mindset”

So 3 interesting questions, I’ll address them each in turn.

I think the first question is relatively easy for me. I think you have to trade something you are a) passionate about and b) know a little bit about the sport. I don’t think there is anything worse than spending a huge amount of time learning about something you dislike. When you hit tough times, and you will. It is another excuse to give up. So start off with trading a sport you enjoy.

Second question. How do you identify a good educator?
This is and will be a controversial question and answer. As there will be many opinions. This is only mine.
To start with, find someone who specialises in the sport you want to learn. It would be pointless asking me to teach you about football trading when my speciality is Horse Racing. Or even ask me to teach you In Play Racing. I simply do not do it.


The next part is due diligence. Find out what you can about the person in question. Are they credible? What exactly are they offering? Can they supply you with testimonials or references, From real people, not ones they have made up! Will / can they put you in touch with previous or present customers? What is their reputation like? Do they have a track record? Do they offer any support?
Just a little caveat here. Don’t listen to people who tell you how great they are. Listen to OTHER people telling you how great that person is”
If you were having a big extension built on your house, how would you choose your builder? Same piss, different pot.


There is a mostly negative vibe about Betfair Trading education. There is a good reason for that. Some are not very good! Another reason is learning to win consistently, is bloody hard. The constant bombardment by the “look at me ” merchants do not help. The making it look so easy approach raises expectations and you find that many aspiring traders will rock up, expect to spend a day at a course and expect to be at the same level as the trainer.
Not possible. Am I the only one saying this? If so there are more disingenuous fuckers around that I feared. This is why I encourage and offer long term support. It’s no coincidence that the people who stick at it make more money than the ones that go “around the houses” constantly.

Last question: Learning about mindset.
Mindset, or psychology if you like is a tough one. I believe this to be a specialised field that requires specialised guidance. So it is something I don’t say too much about. Other than to impart the bits I do know about.
There is no doubt that one of the key skills you need is discipline and patience. However, the best way to learn these skills is to understand that if you have a process to follow that works, and you trust that process. All you need to do is follow that. Trust The Process. Then it becomes clear that the controlled losses are part of the cost of doing business. They are factored in. Then they become less important and aids disipline.
What i am saying in a nutshell is. If you gain the knowledge to be able to build a little consistancy into your trading, this mindset side of trading suddenly becomes so much easier. There are many things we can work on that help with mindset. Without making it a stand alone subject. Everything you do has an influence on your state of mind.

So some tough questions there. i hope I have answered them. Please comment if you would like to discuss or disagree any of these points.
I would like to make clear that I will not publish any comments that mention other educators about. My points have been made generally based on my observations. If you have purchased educational material from someone and it has not delivered what you hoiped. Please take that up with them. I will not comment on others products I do not have experience of personally.

thanks to Chris for the questions. Please keep them coming

Cheers
Steve

Ask Steve Question about the accu​racy​ of odds.

I have a really interesting question from Plamen.

 Do you think that the money we see in the last three odds 1 minute before kick-off / at the Betfair / can give us a guideline what are the expectations for the final result?

It’s a known fact that over the long term that Betfair closing odds (or Betfair SP BSP) are highly accurate. But this is something we discussed in the question about overbet runners. LINK

However, in Football there is a more dominant bookmaker. That’s Pinnacle.
Pinnacle claim that if you can beat their opening prices by 1.5 points you win in the long term.

My answer here may seem a bit lazy. But to be perceftly honest, if you can find reliable and well written information from someone who knows more than you about the subject in question. It would be wrong not to bring attention to that.

So first is this article may Pinnacle themselves Market Movement in Betting
The 2nd link is from Football_Data.co.uk Article I though it was very well-argued and very useful.

I hope this helps understand your question. My thanks for asking it.

Cheers
Steve

Persistance​​​/Support/Knowledge

As an established educator of aspiring traders, I am in the privileged position of having met hundreds of traders from every walk of life. From City bankers to emergency service workers, from armed service personnel to mum’s trying to learn to trade and juggle 3 jobs and look after a family.

There are many factors against us while we are trying to learn this difficult skill. Some can be easily overcome. Others not so.

I have a strong reputation for “saying it like it is”. So I have never positioned myself as someone with a magic wand that can miraculously turn you into a pro trader if you spend a day with me.

Now, there are lots and lots of pieces of useful information and hacks I can give you to improve facets of your trading. All have a value, and if implemented will make money. Or at least help you stop losing money.

I realise I have a skill that means I can make something that is pretty difficult to look very easy. I get told this daily. But the truth is. The nuts and bolts of pre-race trading are really not difficult to grasp. I teach them at a workshop, and due to the style of teaching, I am confident that nearly all the attendees understand the signals that drive a market. But this is just the beginning.

For the best chance of success there are a few more ingredients that are needed.

  • Screentime
  • Patience
  • Mental toughness
  • Tenacity
  • Knowledge
  • Persistence
  • Support

I can give you some of these items, but what you have inside is very important, as are constraints on your time.

All of the above are important, but I believe the 3 that you need above all else is knowledge, persistence; That never give up attitude and support. Support from someone who knows what they are talking about and can guide you down that dark and sometimes lonely road.

If you think that the person to help you on this journey is me. You are welcome to book a call with me and discuss what might be best for you. THIS IS NOT A SALES CALL
Just an opportunity to chat with me informally to see where you are at and if I can help you.

You can book 15 minutes of my time free of charge and without obligation,
calendly.com/steve_mg

Ask Steve about Betfair Trading. Overbet Runners

Question from Danny.

“Having recently read the book thinking fast and slow by Daniel Kahneman. I have literally just sat and watched a lot of pre off horse racing markets lately without entering I can’t help think that I see a pattern.
It seems to me that people are just following sheep a lot of the time and just backing for the sake of backing, therefore, horses are completely over backed.
Do you think people back more then they lay so there is an edge in laying over backed horses? I’m sure you can expand on this with your knowledge”.

This is an interesting question from Danny. Sometimes I have a very strong opinion about a certain subject and other times not so much. This is one of the latter. but I am happy to explore this and see if I can help shine some of my experiences on it.

Firstly I wanted to find out a little about the author Daniel Kahneman whom Danny referenced. I have never heard of him, so as always google was my friend. This is what Wikipedia threw up.

Daniel Kahneman is an Israeli-American psychologist and economist notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, as well as behavioral economics, for which he was awarded the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. Wikipedia

What I know for sure is that there are many more backers than layers. Laying is a pretty new concept to the masses. so it will come as no surprise that Backers rule. Most horses drift, not because they are being layed. It’s because no one is backing them. There are some horses that are being actively layed. But they are vastly outnumbered by passive drifters.

Let me explore what Danny asked.
If you convert the Betfair starting price to give an implied chance of winning. So 2 would be 100/2 = 50%. A runner in a market at 2 has a 50% chance of winning. The LONG TERM accuracy of this on Betfair is around 99.8%. So if we take the assumption that 50% @ 2.0 win. Then 50% will lose. Where this becomes interesting and will fry your brain. Is what if the percentage is skewed by overbet horses. Runners, that have no right to be a 50% chance as their true odds is 66%? But have been overbet. Or is that accounted for already within the stats? What about front runners? The trend nowadays is for them to attract money based on their running style. It has nothing to do with the chances of actually winning. just the way the run and travel in a race.

I did read something a few years back that backing horses that drifted badly were more profitable than backing steamers. based on bigger odds I guess.

There is a plethora of ifs and buts within this, its fascinating and as Danny suggests may be an angle in it. I am more inclined to think that the in play market has a bigger influence on prices than many realise, and that may be a good place to start. but with something else to consider.

The running style of a horse is sometimes critical to its chances of winning. There are animals that HAVE to lead. If they don’t get an uncontested lead, they sulk and run badly. Does the collective market take this into account when deciding the odds it will start at? You see these uneasy in the market, but then as the race unfolds, and the horses gets his lead, the odds drop more than they should by rights. Is it because the market had to see if the horse got his lead before it was prepared to get the runner to its true odds in play?

The big question is. How do you know if something is overbet or being supported quite rightly into its correct chance of winning?

Over the years I have seen many huge gambles win and seen them lose. I think that this is a topic that is not cut and dried and needs much more study before deciding if it as a viable strategy.

I’d like to thank Danny for his question, I have answered it the best I can. But I would love to hear other thoughts on this. Please comment. We can continue to explore this together


Webinar: Open Invitation

Next Thursday 20th June at 8:00pm I would like to invite you to join me in my 1st “public” webinar. This is something I have never done before. I often conduct webinars for my group of traders in MGW. I have never held one open to all. Details of how to join in will be at the bottom of this page.
Please note that this invitation is open to all and is free

This is a great opportunity for me to reach new people, perhaps people who have not really heard of me, or know what I am about. Most of my YouTube material is becoming dated (I am going to be removing a lot of it soon). A chance to showcase what I do and for some of you guys to get to hear me talk about different aspects of being a Pro Trader, the challenges I have faced, how I overcame them. What works and more importantly, what doesn’t.
I hope I will be able to give you good information, entertain and pass an hour or so with something worthwhile that you can take away. Even if you get just 1 thing that you can implement into your trading, and it makes 5% difference. Then it’s worth the effort, it’s free, so you have nothing to lose (except an hour of your life). You may have to record Emmerdale, and I hope not to run into Love Island……….

What will I be talking about?
I have a few topics that I will be covering. For this webinar, it will be “general” trading advice. I will also hope to answer a few questions too.

I am planning to cover:

  • Your Bank
  • Race Selection
  • Your Trading Operation
  • Expectations
  • Execution
  • Motivation

To be able to participate there are a couple of things you need to do. Firstly is be on my email subscriber list. I will add a subscribe box at the end of this page for you.
On Tuesday evening I will send out an invitation to everyone who is on this list. You will then need to register to join the webinar.
This is completely FREE!

So what is this all about? Why am I doing this?

So “Why”? The cynical bastards amongst you will be wanting to know what I get out of it. If you are thinking that btw. Please don’t bother signing up to come. I am increasingly frustrated with negative people that worry more about what others are getting, losing sight of what they are gaining. I don’t want these people in my life. Simple as that. If you have that attitude you will always struggle to get to where you want to be. I don’t waste my time on people like that anymore.

I do sincerely hope that can join me on Thursday evening.

As part of GDPR you will need to confirm your email to go onto my mail list. make sure you look in your spam folder to find this. it comes almost straight away after you subscribe. Any issues with this. Please get in touch at mugsgame@hotmail.co.uk so I can help you sort it.








 
 
 
 
 

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Scheduling Time

Something I have always (until recently) been crap at doing is managing my time. I always used to rock up and get on with it. This worked fine as I had nothing to do all day but trade. As I have spoken about a lot recently. This has now changed. I have a life to live and other things to do. So my time is always under pressure. I needed a way to deal with this.

I now have a diary, well 2 diaries really. One is electronic called Schedule Once other is a hardbound one from Collins in A4 size. What I do now is allocated blocks of my time. I ONLY engage in the task in my time slot. I turn off everything else. Phone, Social Media, TV etc.

So if on a given day I may have allocated 2 hours to trade between 2:00pm and 4:00pm and maybe a further hour between 7:00 and 8:00pm. So that is when I trade. I focus 100% on this task and blank out everything else. I wish I had done this years ago. I am trading less, but the quality is way higher.

Here is a great example: I love Cheltenham. It is a special week of my year. Even going back to the early 1990’s I would take a week sick from work, Once my gaffer spotted the pattern I had to take 4 days flexible holiday I had every year to cover it. I haven’t missed a Cheltenham race since then. But this year that all changes. On Tuesday I have to be somewhere else. My Mum has a hospital appointment, it’s my responsibility to take her. Now usually I would shirk this and insist that my Brother or Sister had a day off work and I would cover their loss of wages. But that is a shit way of living I am sure you would agree. I want to sit and listen to what the consultant has to say. for myself, trying to get my Mother to explain is always a challenge!

This feels almost liberating. I am free! Now we all know that “real Pro’s” would NEVER miss a Saturday, let alone a day from the festival. Probably means I am a fake eh?

I can pack more into these shorter sessions than I used to. It also means I do not feel guilty about doing other activities. This would work really well for you guys with full-time jobs AND family life to fit in. Don’t flit from one thing to another. If you only have 1 hour to trade. That’s fine. But do ONLY that. The quality of your sessions will show improvement week on week.

Give it a go. You have nothing to lose.

On a side note. I have just 4 places left for my Workshop on 8th April. Please get in touch if you wish to come along. Or just the booking info on this page.http://www.itsamugsblog.co.uk/2016-racing-workshops/

Trading v Life

Just wanted to share my thoughts about trading and lifestyle and to let you know how it works for me, and some challenges I have faced.

When I started trading more seriously in 2004 onwards it was relentless. I lived and breathed it. If I wasn’t at work I was trading or doing something trading related. Everything else fitted in. That hard work paid off as I was able to trade full time after I was made redundant from my job in July 2006. Imagine having an ATM in your spare room, where you could help yourself to cash, without the balance of your bank account being affected. That’s how it was.

Friends call around, it’s so obvious you want them to fuck off so you can get back to trading, it makes them uncomfortable after a few visits, they stop coming. Friendships ended, Invitations dry up, family engagements become unpleasant. funerals missed, holidays forsaken, relationships destroyed, families broken. For what? This was my situation.

The pursuit of money, greed for want of another word. The question I ask myself often was was it all worth it? No, it wasn’t. if I had those 10 years again it would be very different. But at this point in my life, I can make different choices.

The expectations of what a “pro trader” is or isn’t are often open for debate on forums and Twitter. I have read some frankly ridiculous statements lately, About what constitutes a “Pro Trader”. How much they should earn to be classified as a Pro, whether or not they pay higher rate Premium Charge and even one first-class numpty trying to say that a true pro would never miss a Saturday trading. A true pro would be involved in the markets every single day, What a load of fucking shite!

You never hear me bragging about how much I do or don’t make. I have stated I am in Betfair’s’ higher rate Premium Charge bracket. You may see a few videos showing decent wins, and the odd screenshot too. But you will have also saw some videos of red screens from me. It’s all part of the game. You will have NEVER seen a Betfair PL shot of my account and you never will. Frankly, it is of no one’s business but my own. My credibility to teach other traders has nothing to do with how much money I make. My ability to explain how to do is much more relevant. Now I can wheel out 100’s of people that will happily testify that I can do that pretty well. The bottom line is this. Come to a workshop or don’t come. I hold 6 a year and that will never increase, currently, I have 20 people at a time. This is a number that works for everyone. It allows the interaction required, and I can comfortably answer every question asked. I often joke at the start of a workshop that no one is leaving until every question has been answered, even if we are still here at 9:00pm tonight! they are always full, without exception. I often turn people away.

In the last few years, I have made some pretty big changes in my personal life. I don’t want to detail them all, because they are personal. But there are some I want to share, because they may help someone reading this, both to understand a little more about me and what drives me as a pro trader.

My workshops and education have been a big part of things for 5 years now. I don’t write too much these days, and rarely make videos for public consumption. But I do have a vibrant community that I look after. I don’t trade every day, in fact, I have completely changed the way I work. I now have a diary where I allocate time slots to different tasks. So when I am answering emails – I answer emails, in that time allotted. When I am trading, I trade. But in the time I have set out. No more and no less. This structure means I get much more done, and I have my life back.

The result is I am very happy with my life now, I can do the things I want. I am happy to trade when I want to, and take time off to do other things when I want to. Trading supplements my life, it doesn’t dictate it anymore. Does this mean that I am unable to articulate how to trade to others? Does this diminish my ability? have I forgotten 14 years worth of knowledge and experience? Seriously?

If you feel you cannot escape from a life that is dominated by gambling or trading. If all you can think about is trading and money, please talk to someone, please reach out for help. I am happy to give my time freely to talk things through with you and try to help or advise some professional councilling. Trading is a fabulous hobby, and even a profession if you get good at it. But please keep in mind that there are things outside of this that are more important.Please keep this in mind. Stay safe.

Steve


Failure

I just want to add a few words about failure. Why do people fail? This can be applied to just about anything and not trading specifically.

Why do people fail?

  • The wrong environment
  • They do not have a strong enough reason why.
  • They do not follow the plan
  • The going gets tough……..
  • They are thinking in the short term
  • They do not feel the pain

The importance of a reason why

  • It provides clarity and focus
  • It helps keep you focused
  • It helps to motivate you
  • It keeps you determined

Does any of this ring true? just some things to look at. The list is certainly not exhaustive