Some help to deal with an outage

When this happens It’s a fact of life when trading on the Betting exchanges that sometimes things go badly wrong.

One such instance is when you have a trade in market and your screen freezes. There are a few things you can do to help yourself here.

Internet Issues:

Most people now have smart phones / tablets – Log into Betfair with 4g – If your internet goes you have a backup.

You can close a trade by phone if you are quick.

You can offset the bet on another exchange, such asBetdaq / S Markets or matchbook if you have a funded account. This isn’t as easy as it sounds.

Get friendly with your neighbour, see if you can blag their wifi password :)

Exchange Outage:

This happened on Saturday afternoon last on Betfair. When this happens your options are somewhat limited. There is one particular safeguard I regularly use; Take SP.

Take SP is a feature built into the major 3rd party vendor apps such as Gruss, Bet Angel and Geek Toy. If you enable this (I have a video, showing how to do this) it gives you some protection. It’s not perfect, but it can help save you from a huge loss.

In this video, it shows how to use guardian within Bet Angel to “Take SP”. What I would suggest is that you change the time of enabling Take SP to fit in the timeframe you are trading in. It’s no good taking SP 5 seconds from the scheduled start of the race is you have a trade in 3 minutes out and Betfair goes down. Peter makes a better fist of showing you this in his training videos.

If you Google “Using SP automation as a safety feature – YouTube” it will come up as the top answer.

My video is at the end of the post.

You may notice I have had a revamp of my Workshops for the rest of 2017. If you are interested in learning how to trade take a look HERE

Cheers Steve

 

Merry Christmas

 

No cringeworthy video, no witty little message. Just this….

A genuine “I wish you and your loved ones a very Merry Christmas and prosperous New Year”.

Peace and Love to you all

Steve

 

Tap Tap Boom?

Something happened to one of the guys I Mentor on Saturday that I want to share with you.

The trade(s) were on the Newcastle Utd v Wolves match in the Championship. So quite a strong market.

There were bets placed prior to kick off.

In Match Odds and also cover bets in the Correct Score market.

After the 1st goal to Wolves further bets were placed in the Match odds and correct score markets. Finally at half time a couple of other bets were placed in the same markets.

At 4.06pm. Just after Half Time the market was suspended and then closed. The bets were settled. No explanation.

So my Man the turns his attention to other markets and forgets the Newcastle match as the markets is settled. It’s over in terms of trading.

At 16:40 he notices that his balance was down and investigated why. To his shock and dismay he discovered that the Newcastle market had reopened and his bets had re appeared. There was no liquidity in the market and no way to exit these open positions. He was unable to trade out of his position and he ended up with a loss of almost £500.

If the match had not had closed when it did, he would have ended up at worst with a scratch position as the strategy he uses ensures this.

Betfair altered this account at 16:19, but did not notify him. He claims they could have easily have done this as he had already had a conversation about this it on Twitter.

After complaining to Betfair about this he received this email.

Hi *****,

 Thanks for getting in touch.

 Please accept our sincere apologies for the issues you experienced with the Newcastle game today. As you are aware, we settled the Newcastle markets prematurely as 1-0 during the second half. You can see this in your account statement where the 1-0 bet has been paid out as a winner initially.

Once the error was realised we unsettled all markets and they were eventually restored for trading. I appreciate your frustration in this matter as by the time the markets were active again you would have lost the best chance to trade your positions. It’s an unfortunate situation and we apologise for any inconvenience caused by this. Please be aware that if you place a bet with the intention of subsequently placing a separate bet to reduce the liability incurred by the initial bet, there can never be a guarantee that the Services will be available at the point you wish to place the subsequent bet (this is the case regardless of whether or not the unavailability of the Services is due to a matter beyond our reasonable control). Although we will offer this facility whenever possible, we aren’t liable to refund losses if there are technical issues which prevent this. As a goodwill gesture I have added a £25 free bet to your account, please be aware this is purely a gesture to you as a customer not an admission of any guilt regarding the issues today.

 Let me know if there’s anything else I can help with. Or maybe our FAQs will come in handy?

 Thanks,

*****

Betfair Customer Service Manager

 

So a Free £25 bet and a no admission of guilt caveat, even though the admission of guilt is glaringly obvious! Oh, plus a handy hint to read the FAQ’s!

Whenever I read the words “inconvenience and “unfortunate” in this context (he just lost £500 quid!!!!!) it really pisses me off.

In a previous Twitter message Betfair said this:

“Unfortunately our live service provider auto settled the game early, we have had to re track the markets and bets as such and settled accordingly. Apologies for this”

Tap Tap Boom eh?

After further complaining and a threat to take this to IBAS the response was this:

“Thanks for getting in touch.

We’re very sorry to hear about your dissatisfaction with the matter.

The market would appear as closed however this is with the complete intention of having it reopened as my colleague explained we would still settle according to the result however to opportunity for further trading and cashout would not be a possible as a result of circumstances beyond our control.

Despite this you would notice your bet has been settled according to the result however subsequent may not be a possibility as a result of the occourance. Unfortunately our position on the matter has not changed and whilst we can understand the inconvenience this may have caused, we will still be able to provide with the same free bet amount however would not be able to provide much more I’m afraid.

Let me know if there’s anything else I can help with. Or maybe our FAQs will come in handy? “

My question to Betfair is this. Do you understand how a Betting Exchange works? You change the interpretation of your Ts & C’s to suit YOU. This is a clear error on your behalf. Even though you hide behind a “3rd party service provider”, how is it possible for customer to be close to £500 out of pocket due to something that he has no control over. If you are saying that that’s the way it goes  – “sorry for any inconvenience” how can anyone trade with any sort of confidence? Do you accept that when TRADING you open up positions with much larger liabilities than if straight betting (as on the Sportsbook). We do this with a view to locking in profit or Loss. It’s the fundamental part of TRADING. 

I am totally disgusted by both the condescending attitude of the Consumer service “managers” that replied to my friend, also the total lack of understanding of their own business model and how THEIR customers use it.

So here are the facts, You make up you own mind.

 

 

 

Gruss Settings

Been a while since I had a chance to blog. Really busy with mentoring, trading and …..living!

I picked up a comment from a guy called David who asked about sharing the way I set up Gruss. I have been sharing my settings with my workshop groups for ages, but though it may help a few of you if you wanted to set up as I do. When you have a new software package it can be pretty daunting find your way around it. This video just scratches the surface of what the software can do. But these are my basic ladder settings.

Not sure if anyone gives a flying fuck what I am up to at the moment and maybe what there isn’t too much material going up. In terms of trading videos, these are pretty time consuming and to be honest I think that if you watch the material I have up you can get the guest of what I do. I have no real desire to keep repeating the same old material over and over.

My Workshops have been a massive success and my network of guys who I Mentor within what we call “MG World” are going from strength to strength. At last count we had something like 20 full time traders in the group now. So it isn’t all about me. These guys all bring their own skills and experience to the group. All have attended a workshop with me, so we all trade the same way and this is incredibly helpful to the less experienced guys. I have 2 workshops left this year, 26th Sept and 21st November. I don’t have too many places left for September, so if you were thinking of booking I would advise you to do it sooner rather than later. Having many taking up the option to join the Mentor group too which is fantastic.

LINK to Racing Workshop page

Been enjoying the dry weather and a chance to get out on my Motorcycle. My illness last year stopped me getting out too much, so by time this spring came I had cabin fever and was desperate to put some miles on. Been taking advantage of the quite Monday and Tuesday afternoons to get some serious miles in. By the time Wednesday comes I am chomping at the bit to trade again.

Although I haven’t blogged too much, I do post stuff on my Facebook group. https://www.facebook.com/ItsAMugsGame/

As always, happy to answer any questions you have.

Cheers

Steve

The FA CUP

The FA Cup- What Happened?
Like many of you of a “certain age” the FA Cup is a magical thing. My earliest memories of Football are triggered by the Cup. The very first one I remember was the 1973 Final between Sunderland and Leeds. The magic of the FA Cup encapsulated in that one match. The mighty Leeds utd. Bremner, Hunter, Clark, Jones, Reaney, Lorimer, Giles and Harvey. Against 2nd division Sunderland. The joy of that victory from the Sunderland team and fans is something I have never forgotten, it may have been the trigger for my life long love affair with Football.
Back in the early 70’s and in fact all the way upto the early 1990’s we were treated to very few live matches on TV. The Cup Final being the main one. The build up was fabulous. They followed the teams pretty much from breakfast at the hotel all the way to wembley. They had cameras on the coach and it was no stop from 9:00am until the end of the match. The passion was captured brilliantly. The FA Cup was the trophy all teams wanted to win. Perhaps more so the the League title itself?
If I go though my early memories of those magical days I can clearly recall Liverpool dominating the game, I can’t remember Newcastle being there at all! ’75 – Bobby Moore playing against his beloved West Ham, 76′ – Another incredible match. Southampton slaying the mighty Manchester United. Then onto the 80’s trevor Brookings header in the 1980 final. Ricky Villa getting the winner in the replay for Spurs against Man City in ’81. 1986 the Merseyside final, I recall reds sitting next Blues, and them all singing together, basking in the glory of Merseyside.
We then come to the best day of my life. 16th May 1987. My City, My Team Coventry City, massive underdogs up against the might of Spurs. It was one of the greatest Cup Finals ever, and if any of you support the “little ” clubs, the unfashionable teams. The ones where no one outside they the area supports them. You may be lucky enough to know how it feels when you finally get to win something. This is why Leicester has had such amazing support from the neutrals. The people who as sick of our game being dominated by the same 5 or 6 clubs, year after year. That night in Coventry it was something so special we will never forget it. The people of Leicester experienced the same sort of joy last week.
The following year even crazier. Coventry knocked out in the 3rd round by non league Sutton Utd. (That was Sutton’s own Cup Final) The trophy won by WIMBLEDON – I still can’t believe it now!
’89 another Merseyside Cup Final and then in ’90 the fantastic 3-3 Man utd v Palace match. Which takes us nicely to today.
I can’t remember anymore Cup Finals after that. All the ones I have spoke about were easy to recall. The years, the scores, the scorers. After that nothing. I could not even tell you how won last year. Nor do I care. So what happened?
Was it that getting to Wembley is no big deal anymore? The semis are there now, even the League 2 play offs are played there. It’s the same old, same old. Is it that the top teams play shadow teams through some rounds? They are not that bothered if they win it or not.
I am not sure if the 9 -16 year olds of today watch it with the reverence that people of my age did when they were boys. For me it’s dead. They can shove it right up their arses, along with the 5:30 pm kick off.

York, The Dante and Betdaq SP

Well it’s mid May already and we are starting to get a bit of heat in the sun. The big meeting in May (apart from the Guineas meeting) is at York and includes the Dante. The Dante is usually considered the most important of all the Derby trials. In recent times the stats are impressive.Winners of the Dante have won the derby in ’94 – Erhaab, 97 – Benny The Dip, ’04 North Light, ’05 Motivator, ’07 Authorized, ’15 Golden Horn (also won the Arc).

In 2014 The Grey Gadsby won the St James Palace at Royal Ascot and back in ’95 Classic Cliche won the St Ledger, So this race has a rich history. I expect the winner to shorten significantly in the Derby Ante post betting.

Something else of note today is Betdaq announcing a new product . They are calling it XSP. I expect it to be the same as BFSP. Although I haven’t seen the way they are going to calculate it as yet.

I am a big fan of Betfair’s SP. What is important to note about these type of SP products though is they are a SAFETY NET and NOT an exit strategy. They are often inefficient and you do better by taking the price on offer to close. However, if you lost your connection, or the site goes down. They can be a godsend and adds an extra level of security.

Another workshop for me this weekend. They are something I look forward to immensely. Always fun and it’s great to set traders on the right path. Taking bookings for July and September now if interested. You can get the details HERE

Update:

The Dante: Wings of desire was 17 seconds before he won the race – as I speak it’s 6 to Lay 5.2 to back. The Dante Fav Midterm was 4.2 during most of the race 6.6 at the furlong pole and now 17.5 to back

Chester May Meeting

One of my favourite meetings of the year is held in the first week of May at Chester. With the first two Classics out of the way, and the end of the jumps season last weekend, the Flat season proper is now underway.

Chester has some incredible history, which I am going to bore you with now. It’s an incredibly picturesque course and you can see the old City Walls surrounding part of the track.

The racecourse lies on the banks of the Dee. It was a harbour during Roman times but was closed as the river silted up thus making navigation impossible. Towards the centre of the in field is a raised mound which is decorated by a small cross known as a “rood”. It is from this that the race course derives the name “Roodee”; Roodee is a corruption of “Rood Eye”, meaning “The Island of the Cross”.

Racing began on the site in 1539 and was allowed by the then Mayor Henry Gee. This is where the term “Gee-Gee” comes from. The course is an oval, akin to a Greyhound track. It is 1m and 1furlong around and runs anti clockwise. It’s tight turns and very short straight of 239 yards make it very challenging.

So enough of the history lesson. What about Trading?

What you will see from the next 3 days is well catalogued. Races over 5 and 6 furlongs favour heavily runners drawn low. They have a huge advantage. Hold up horses always struggle here. that’s not to say it’s not impossible to be held up and win. But track position; even in longer races is very important. I think having a well balanced horse is important too. They are always turning. Pretty sure the back 2 lay boys will be out in force today. It could be a way in to piggy back some of the late money as the low runners are backed. But it’s by no means a given it will happen. Be aware of being on a low drawn drifter. It could turn quickly against you close to the off.

Look for Tom Dascombe runners too. Dascombe trains for the Ex Football Legend and Pundit Michael Owen at Manor House Stables. This huge , well financed operation is local to Chester and Owen’s favourite place being a Chester boy. I always look for his runners here, if there is money down they usual keep steaming in. As with any trade I get involved in. The most important thing I am looking for is my signals that I use to identify a trade. But if you are armed with the knowledge of perhaps why a runner is moving in a certain direction, then it gives added confidence and I can stake accordingly. Just a quick scan through sees Dascombe as the Fav in the 1st Race. The 2:10 Lily Agnes Stakes – Fiery Character. In the 3:45 he also has the favourite. It’s called Roudee (hmmmm). He also has the big 40/1 outsider in the 4:20.

The other trainer to look out for is Adien O’Brein. He likes to run some of his nicer young horses here.

There are some good races today. The highlight being the Chester Cup. Run over 2m 2f (2 complete circuits) and with 19 runners it is very competitive. Not sure of a way in yet as a trading angle.

Have a good un  – Steve

Favourite Week of the Year?

Cheltenham – A Unique and Glorious Week

 

Tried hard not to jump on the Cheltenham bandwagon. Every single person with a vested interest in making money from traders have their snouts in the trough. I don’t want to big it up at all, in fact I have a slightly different perspective,

 

Firstly, let me say that as a person who makes his living from Racing, and first and foremost is a huge fan of the sport. I love Cheltenham week. It has always held my imagination and for any Racing fan, it is the World Cup and Olympics all in one. I love everything about it and I am very excited about the week ahead.

 

Now with my trading head on I see things a little differently. Cheltenham is a fucking pain in the arse. We have had poor Racing for over a week, trainers have the better horses put away for Cheltenham, traders are keeping things tight so they have as much of a trading bank as is possible. The week after Cheltenham is another dead week too. So for the pleasure of 1 week we lose 3. Can I make as much in that one week as to make up for the poor trading on offer in the other 3? No, it’s doubtful.

 

You will know that I am pretty much a swing trader. My aim is to get involved in trades that give me more than 1 or 2 ticks. I also like to trade at the shorter end of the market. Where most of my trades are on runners with odds under or around 4.0. These types of races are at an premium at Cheltenham.

 

That’s not to say I cannot do well. On the races where I can get involved in a swing, I can add in pretty much as much money as I like, with the knowledge of a stable exit position should things go wrong. Not something I can do on a Monday afternoon at Wolverhampton.

 

I think the hype is such that many traders, especially newer ones will be thinking that you just have turn up. The promise of extra liquidity will be a licence to print money. But when you get to trade the race that has 20K sitting in front of your £25 it’s almost overwhelming.

 

One of the scariest things is the shear volume of money in the market. You might think twice about sticking in your £25 behind that £20k as I already mentioned. But imagine it like this; You have a basket of shopping and you are in your local Tesco’s. It’s Christmas and there are 100’s of people with big trolley loads at the checkouts. If this was a Tuesday when there were 7 checkouts open it would be a massive problem. But it isn’t. There are 35 checkouts open, and there are 2 members of staff on each one, helping to pack your shopping and get you through as quick as possible. So in the big scheme of things, you only have to wait a little longer than usual. Same with the fill rates at Cheltenham, big queue, but faster fill rate = quick turnaround

 

 

So a couple of tips that may help you enjoy Cheltenham

 

  • Keep your expectations in check
  • Don’t get too overwhelmed with the amounts of money in the queue in front of you
  • Know that the more traded volume that has followed into a market the slower it will react, especially before the Live shows.
  • Expect any of the Mullins/Ruby Walsh to shorten appreciably with they have winners in previous races. These like last year are ripe for accumulators.
  • Don’t get carried away by the occasion. Normal trading rules still apply.

I am not getting to write too much at the minute. But rest assured that I am still battling away with Trading and running my community of Traders  – MG World as we call it.

In respect of the Racing Workshops, they are a great success. I have just 1 place left for March 28th and a handful for May 16th. I will be releasing some new dates in the next week or so for the rest of the year. Racing Workshops

Hope you get a nice green week,

Cheers

Steve

 

 

 

New Year – Clean Slate

First off I want to wish you all a very Happy New Year!

Many people join in with the tradition of the ol’ New Years resolution. I’m not so much one for that. It usually involves me vowing never to eat another bacon sandwich or Pork Pie again. Ever. But by by brekkie time the Bacon finds itself lodged between 2 slices of bread and as I single handily keep Melton Mobray’s economy afloat, it would be irresponsible for me to ditch the odd Pork Pie :)

But it can be a good time to have a look at your trading and review your past results and seek improvement. My Mentorship group are well versed in me going on about reviewing past trades. A minimum requirement is good record keeping, which I have blogged about before, you can read that HERE.

Another thing you can do is record them on video, I often say that when I watch even really good trades back I am like an 8 year old watching Dr Who, with a cushion over my face. You see every little error you make. But it helps you improve for sure. If you keep making the same mistakes over and over it becomes almost reckless. So you need to find that inner strength to STOP!

If you want to record your trades you can use this great FREE software, it’s the choice of gamers that post their videos on You Tube. You can get it HERE . It’s called OBS. Configuring it is easy if you type OBS into You Tube, there are lots of videos showing how to set it up and use it. That’s how I learned :)

So this is a good time to turn over a new leaf. To leave all of those sloppy and reckless trades behind. Tighten things up and concentrate on making small improvements. I heard Dave Brailsford who is the team principle for Team GB Cycling and also the SKY Racing team talk about a concept he referred to as the “aggregation of marginal gains.” He explained it as “the 1 percent margin for improvement in everything you do.” His believed that if you improved every area related to cycling by just 1 percent, then those small gains would add up to a massive  improvement.

He looked he nutrition of riders, their training program, the ergonomics of the seat, and the weight of the tyres. They searched for 1 percent improvements in tiny areas that were overlooked by almost everyone else. They found the pillow that offered the best sleep and taking it with them to hotels, testing for the most effective type of massage gel, and teaching riders the best way to wash their hands to avoid infection. They searched for 1 percent improvements everywhere. The results are well documented.

This concept is nothing new. You may have read about my time working at Toyota and way they use Kaizen: The concept of continuous improvement. It works in the same way and lends itself very well to trading.

There is something that is used in Kaizen called PDCA – Or Plan-Do-Check-Act. Simply put….

Plan -Make a Plan

Do – Carry out your plan

Check – Check the results of your actions

Act – Carry out you corrective actions

PDCA-1

 

 

 

 

 

Hope this gives you some ideas for your trading in the New Year. If you are interested in learning how I trade have a look at my Racing Workshops!

 

Happy New Year