The FA CUP

The FA Cup- What Happened?
Like many of you of a “certain age” the FA Cup is a magical thing. My earliest memories of Football are triggered by the Cup. The very first one I remember was the 1973 Final between Sunderland and Leeds. The magic of the FA Cup encapsulated in that one match. The mighty Leeds utd. Bremner, Hunter, Clark, Jones, Reaney, Lorimer, Giles and Harvey. Against 2nd division Sunderland. The joy of that victory from the Sunderland team and fans is something I have never forgotten, it may have been the trigger for my life long love affair with Football.
Back in the early 70’s and in fact all the way upto the early 1990’s we were treated to very few live matches on TV. The Cup Final being the main one. The build up was fabulous. They followed the teams pretty much from breakfast at the hotel all the way to wembley. They had cameras on the coach and it was no stop from 9:00am until the end of the match. The passion was captured brilliantly. The FA Cup was the trophy all teams wanted to win. Perhaps more so the the League title itself?
If I go though my early memories of those magical days I can clearly recall Liverpool dominating the game, I can’t remember Newcastle being there at all! ’75 – Bobby Moore playing against his beloved West Ham, 76′ – Another incredible match. Southampton slaying the mighty Manchester United. Then onto the 80’s trevor Brookings header in the 1980 final. Ricky Villa getting the winner in the replay for Spurs against Man City in ’81. 1986 the Merseyside final, I recall reds sitting next Blues, and them all singing together, basking in the glory of Merseyside.
We then come to the best day of my life. 16th May 1987. My City, My Team Coventry City, massive underdogs up against the might of Spurs. It was one of the greatest Cup Finals ever, and if any of you support the “little ” clubs, the unfashionable teams. The ones where no one outside they the area supports them. You may be lucky enough to know how it feels when you finally get to win something. This is why Leicester has had such amazing support from the neutrals. The people who as sick of our game being dominated by the same 5 or 6 clubs, year after year. That night in Coventry it was something so special we will never forget it. The people of Leicester experienced the same sort of joy last week.
The following year even crazier. Coventry knocked out in the 3rd round by non league Sutton Utd. (That was Sutton’s own Cup Final) The trophy won by WIMBLEDON – I still can’t believe it now!
’89 another Merseyside Cup Final and then in ’90 the fantastic 3-3 Man utd v Palace match. Which takes us nicely to today.
I can’t remember anymore Cup Finals after that. All the ones I have spoke about were easy to recall. The years, the scores, the scorers. After that nothing. I could not even tell you how won last year. Nor do I care. So what happened?
Was it that getting to Wembley is no big deal anymore? The semis are there now, even the League 2 play offs are played there. It’s the same old, same old. Is it that the top teams play shadow teams through some rounds? They are not that bothered if they win it or not.
I am not sure if the 9 -16 year olds of today watch it with the reverence that people of my age did when they were boys. For me it’s dead. They can shove it right up their arses, along with the 5:30 pm kick off.

York, The Dante and Betdaq SP

Well it’s mid May already and we are starting to get a bit of heat in the sun. The big meeting in May (apart from the Guineas meeting) is at York and includes the Dante. The Dante is usually considered the most important of all the Derby trials. In recent times the stats are impressive.Winners of the Dante have won the derby in ’94 – Erhaab, 97 – Benny The Dip, ’04 North Light, ’05 Motivator, ’07 Authorized, ’15 Golden Horn (also won the Arc).

In 2014 The Grey Gadsby won the St James Palace at Royal Ascot and back in ’95 Classic Cliche won the St Ledger, So this race has a rich history. I expect the winner to shorten significantly in the Derby Ante post betting.

Something else of note today is Betdaq announcing a new product . They are calling it XSP. I expect it to be the same as BFSP. Although I haven’t seen the way they are going to calculate it as yet.

I am a big fan of Betfair’s SP. What is important to note about these type of SP products though is they are a SAFETY NET and NOT an exit strategy. They are often inefficient and you do better by taking the price on offer to close. However, if you lost your connection, or the site goes down. They can be a godsend and adds an extra level of security.

Another workshop for me this weekend. They are something I look forward to immensely. Always fun and it’s great to set traders on the right path. Taking bookings for July and September now if interested. You can get the details HERE

Update:

The Dante: Wings of desire was 17 seconds before he won the race – as I speak it’s 6 to Lay 5.2 to back. The Dante Fav Midterm was 4.2 during most of the race 6.6 at the furlong pole and now 17.5 to back

Chester May Meeting

One of my favourite meetings of the year is held in the first week of May at Chester. With the first two Classics out of the way, and the end of the jumps season last weekend, the Flat season proper is now underway.

Chester has some incredible history, which I am going to bore you with now. It’s an incredibly picturesque course and you can see the old City Walls surrounding part of the track.

The racecourse lies on the banks of the Dee. It was a harbour during Roman times but was closed as the river silted up thus making navigation impossible. Towards the centre of the in field is a raised mound which is decorated by a small cross known as a “rood”. It is from this that the race course derives the name “Roodee”; Roodee is a corruption of “Rood Eye”, meaning “The Island of the Cross”.

Racing began on the site in 1539 and was allowed by the then Mayor Henry Gee. This is where the term “Gee-Gee” comes from. The course is an oval, akin to a Greyhound track. It is 1m and 1furlong around and runs anti clockwise. It’s tight turns and very short straight of 239 yards make it very challenging.

So enough of the history lesson. What about Trading?

What you will see from the next 3 days is well catalogued. Races over 5 and 6 furlongs favour heavily runners drawn low. They have a huge advantage. Hold up horses always struggle here. that’s not to say it’s not impossible to be held up and win. But track position; even in longer races is very important. I think having a well balanced horse is important too. They are always turning. Pretty sure the back 2 lay boys will be out in force today. It could be a way in to piggy back some of the late money as the low runners are backed. But it’s by no means a given it will happen. Be aware of being on a low drawn drifter. It could turn quickly against you close to the off.

Look for Tom Dascombe runners too. Dascombe trains for the Ex Football Legend and Pundit Michael Owen at Manor House Stables. This huge , well financed operation is local to Chester and Owen’s favourite place being a Chester boy. I always look for his runners here, if there is money down they usual keep steaming in. As with any trade I get involved in. The most important thing I am looking for is my signals that I use to identify a trade. But if you are armed with the knowledge of perhaps why a runner is moving in a certain direction, then it gives added confidence and I can stake accordingly. Just a quick scan through sees Dascombe as the Fav in the 1st Race. The 2:10 Lily Agnes Stakes – Fiery Character. In the 3:45 he also has the favourite. It’s called Roudee (hmmmm). He also has the big 40/1 outsider in the 4:20.

The other trainer to look out for is Adien O’Brein. He likes to run some of his nicer young horses here.

There are some good races today. The highlight being the Chester Cup. Run over 2m 2f (2 complete circuits) and with 19 runners it is very competitive. Not sure of a way in yet as a trading angle.

Have a good un  – Steve

Favourite Week of the Year?

Cheltenham – A Unique and Glorious Week

 

Tried hard not to jump on the Cheltenham bandwagon. Every single person with a vested interest in making money from traders have their snouts in the trough. I don’t want to big it up at all, in fact I have a slightly different perspective,

 

Firstly, let me say that as a person who makes his living from Racing, and first and foremost is a huge fan of the sport. I love Cheltenham week. It has always held my imagination and for any Racing fan, it is the World Cup and Olympics all in one. I love everything about it and I am very excited about the week ahead.

 

Now with my trading head on I see things a little differently. Cheltenham is a fucking pain in the arse. We have had poor Racing for over a week, trainers have the better horses put away for Cheltenham, traders are keeping things tight so they have as much of a trading bank as is possible. The week after Cheltenham is another dead week too. So for the pleasure of 1 week we lose 3. Can I make as much in that one week as to make up for the poor trading on offer in the other 3? No, it’s doubtful.

 

You will know that I am pretty much a swing trader. My aim is to get involved in trades that give me more than 1 or 2 ticks. I also like to trade at the shorter end of the market. Where most of my trades are on runners with odds under or around 4.0. These types of races are at an premium at Cheltenham.

 

That’s not to say I cannot do well. On the races where I can get involved in a swing, I can add in pretty much as much money as I like, with the knowledge of a stable exit position should things go wrong. Not something I can do on a Monday afternoon at Wolverhampton.

 

I think the hype is such that many traders, especially newer ones will be thinking that you just have turn up. The promise of extra liquidity will be a licence to print money. But when you get to trade the race that has 20K sitting in front of your £25 it’s almost overwhelming.

 

One of the scariest things is the shear volume of money in the market. You might think twice about sticking in your £25 behind that £20k as I already mentioned. But imagine it like this; You have a basket of shopping and you are in your local Tesco’s. It’s Christmas and there are 100’s of people with big trolley loads at the checkouts. If this was a Tuesday when there were 7 checkouts open it would be a massive problem. But it isn’t. There are 35 checkouts open, and there are 2 members of staff on each one, helping to pack your shopping and get you through as quick as possible. So in the big scheme of things, you only have to wait a little longer than usual. Same with the fill rates at Cheltenham, big queue, but faster fill rate = quick turnaround

 

 

So a couple of tips that may help you enjoy Cheltenham

 

  • Keep your expectations in check
  • Don’t get too overwhelmed with the amounts of money in the queue in front of you
  • Know that the more traded volume that has followed into a market the slower it will react, especially before the Live shows.
  • Expect any of the Mullins/Ruby Walsh to shorten appreciably with they have winners in previous races. These like last year are ripe for accumulators.
  • Don’t get carried away by the occasion. Normal trading rules still apply.

I am not getting to write too much at the minute. But rest assured that I am still battling away with Trading and running my community of Traders  – MG World as we call it.

In respect of the Racing Workshops, they are a great success. I have just 1 place left for March 28th and a handful for May 16th. I will be releasing some new dates in the next week or so for the rest of the year. Racing Workshops

Hope you get a nice green week,

Cheers

Steve

 

 

 

New Year – Clean Slate

First off I want to wish you all a very Happy New Year!

Many people join in with the tradition of the ol’ New Years resolution. I’m not so much one for that. It usually involves me vowing never to eat another bacon sandwich or Pork Pie again. Ever. But by by brekkie time the Bacon finds itself lodged between 2 slices of bread and as I single handily keep Melton Mobray’s economy afloat, it would be irresponsible for me to ditch the odd Pork Pie :)

But it can be a good time to have a look at your trading and review your past results and seek improvement. My Mentorship group are well versed in me going on about reviewing past trades. A minimum requirement is good record keeping, which I have blogged about before, you can read that HERE.

Another thing you can do is record them on video, I often say that when I watch even really good trades back I am like an 8 year old watching Dr Who, with a cushion over my face. You see every little error you make. But it helps you improve for sure. If you keep making the same mistakes over and over it becomes almost reckless. So you need to find that inner strength to STOP!

If you want to record your trades you can use this great FREE software, it’s the choice of gamers that post their videos on You Tube. You can get it HERE . It’s called OBS. Configuring it is easy if you type OBS into You Tube, there are lots of videos showing how to set it up and use it. That’s how I learned :)

So this is a good time to turn over a new leaf. To leave all of those sloppy and reckless trades behind. Tighten things up and concentrate on making small improvements. I heard Dave Brailsford who is the team principle for Team GB Cycling and also the SKY Racing team talk about a concept he referred to as the “aggregation of marginal gains.” He explained it as “the 1 percent margin for improvement in everything you do.” His believed that if you improved every area related to cycling by just 1 percent, then those small gains would add up to a massive  improvement.

He looked he nutrition of riders, their training program, the ergonomics of the seat, and the weight of the tyres. They searched for 1 percent improvements in tiny areas that were overlooked by almost everyone else. They found the pillow that offered the best sleep and taking it with them to hotels, testing for the most effective type of massage gel, and teaching riders the best way to wash their hands to avoid infection. They searched for 1 percent improvements everywhere. The results are well documented.

This concept is nothing new. You may have read about my time working at Toyota and way they use Kaizen: The concept of continuous improvement. It works in the same way and lends itself very well to trading.

There is something that is used in Kaizen called PDCA – Or Plan-Do-Check-Act. Simply put….

Plan -Make a Plan

Do – Carry out your plan

Check – Check the results of your actions

Act – Carry out you corrective actions

PDCA-1

 

 

 

 

 

Hope this gives you some ideas for your trading in the New Year. If you are interested in learning how I trade have a look at my Racing Workshops!

 

Happy New Year

 

 

Christmas message

Unlike the Queen, I will not be delivering a video message. You will not want to be seeing my ugly mug that’s for sure!

I do however want to thank all of my readers for their amazing support over the past year(s). I don’t get to blog as much as I would like. But it’s great that you keep coming back.

Exciting times ahead for me and what I am trying to achieve. A couple of new adventures planned for next year, including a new delivery system for my Workshops.

I wish all of you and your families a wonderful Christmas and a very happy and prosperous New Year.

Cheers

Steve

Legend

As a proud Coventrian I would like to pay tribute to the most important person to grace our fine City since the Earl of Mercia, Lord Leofric’s wife the Lady Godiva rode naked though the streets of Coventry on her white horse in protest of her Husband’s oppressive taxation of his tenants…….. Jimmy Hill OBE.CBE

Jimmy was an inspirational man who many will know only as a presenter on Match of The Day. He was so much more than that.

His playing career spanned over 350 games, the majority for Fulham, where he became Chairman of the Professional Footballers Association (PFA). He campaigned for the abolition of the then £20 maximum wage that a footballer could earn. He was successful in 1961.

He came to us in 1961 at the age of just 33 and took over what then was a struggling 3rd Division club (League 2 now). Coventry in the 1960’s was an awesome place. After the City was destroyed by the Luftwaffe in November 1940, it was a time of redevelopment and transformation. A new Cathedral, a vibrant Motor Industry, we were turning out Iconic cars such as the E type Jaguar, Triumph TR4 and 5, The London “Black Cab” and the best Motorcycle ever made. The Triumph Bonneville. He harnessed this energy and transformed the club. Changing our kit to Sky Blue, adopting the nickname “The Sky Blues” and even wrote what became the club song to the tune of the old Eton Boating tune. “The Sky Blue Song” He also added visionary innovations such as pre match entertainment to encourage the fans to arrive early to build atmosphere. He created what was the first ever colour match day program. Arranged match day trains for the travelling fans to see away matches and oversaw the instillation of the games first electronic scoreboard.

Something not so well known was Jimmy’s “pop and crisp” nights. He got the players in to give out pop and crisps to 100’s of young fans and sign autographs. The forerunner to the community programs that clubs all run nowadays.

He oversaw a redevelopment of the ground which all helped City gain promotion from the old 3rd Division into the top division (Division 1) in 1967, He quit before the start of the clubs first season in the top flight.

He became a Director of Coventry City in 1975, before taking over as Chairman. Making Highfield Road England’s first all seater stadium in 1981.

Most will probably know Jimmy through his media work, his time on Match of The Day being the most notable. He was never afraid to be controversial and it was his idea to have a panel of pundits. Jimmy is also credited with persuading the FA to introduce 3 points for a win, which has been adopted all over the World. At a match between Liverpool and Arsenal in 1972 the linesman was injured. Jimmy stepped in to run the line. Incredible.

In terms of important changes to the way Football is played, managed and viewed in modern times, Jimmy was the guy who forced and innovated those changes. Jimmy Hill was the most important figure that the game has ever had.

My deepest condolences go to Jimmy’s family. To the people of Coventry he will always be “Our Jimmy”. We will miss him terribly. He was and always will be a Legend.

jimmy

Bit of a Mess!

Hi Guys,

Thought it was time I stuck a video up. I still record lots of video, but have been going though some changes behind the scenes in MG World. My Mentorship program is full and i am working on my new Racing Workshop content. It goes without saying that these videos are at a much higher level than what I can post up on You Tube, Saying that no one can accuse me of not helping aspiring traders by giving them a nudge in the right direction.

I have changed my trading set up too and now am back to using a Windows PC, my recording software has also changed and I have been trying to find ways of getting my video and screen to the highest quality I can. Not quite there yet, but hope it’s ok. I hope to be able to throw out a few more videos again now.

If you fancy attending one of my Racing Workshops, they are fantastic value and of the highest quality. I’ll show you exactly what I do and why I do it. LINK to Racing Workshop

Hope you enjoy – I made a real hash of this!

Communication & Social Media

Over the time I have been writing my blog, you may know that I struggle to maintain it as often as i should . I have the Twitter account @itsamugsgame, but 142 characters is sometimes a waste of time. Sometimes i want to make a small comment, or see something that i want to reference. The blog is a little to “serious’ for that. So I have decided to make more use of Facebook. It seems that this might be the way to go for me.

I will still be using the blog, and sometimes what I post on Facebook will be replicated on here and visa versa. i want to reach as many people as possible, I think that Facebook is much more mobile friendly, and as we all know mobile communication is the future (and present on doubt).

So if you are interested in what i have to say (oh dear oh dear)  Please Like my Facebook page and you will be able to hear a bit more from me.

https://www.facebook.com/ItsAMugsGame/ is the place where I hang out. See you there!

Cheers

Steve