Are you still in the game?

Cheltenham is over for another year and this Saturday we see the 169th running of The Lincoln Handicap. One signifies an end, the other, quite rightly in Spring, signals a beginning.

Historically, the time between Xmas and Cheltenham is the most testing period of the trading year. Very little happens, often nothing if the weather’s bad enough, and the whole thing becomes a real grind. This period is when many would-be traders are shaken out of the markets for the last time. Sighing at a depleted or empty account, they question if this for them, is this an alchemy they do not have the recipe for and never will. Sound familiar? Don’t be put off. There is a difference between giving up and knowing it cannot work. Ask yourself two questions and then decide if you still want to label the whole thing “Experience” and put it on the shelf.

  1. Have I exhausted every opportunity to make this work?
  2. Am I simply giving up because I can’t find the answers?

Betting exchange trading holds so many opportunities. There are so many ways to skin that proverbial cat. If you read a previous post you’ll see how often people contact us when close to throwing in the towel. Once they become part of MGWorld they understand what they may have walked away from. You can do it, you just don’t know you can.., yet.

2018 workshops


Cheltenham 2018

If you are a regular reader of my blog, you will know that I always post something up about Cheltenham. I am almost like the Anti Christ here, and really don’t want to pour cold water on what Racing fans know is the greatest racing spectacle on earth. I am coming at this from a trading angle, not a betting/gambling angle.

So what is “Cheltenham” and why do we hear so much about it?

Cheltenham is an annual event, it runs over 4 days in mid-March. It is the climax of the National Hunt season and if it was held in the USA they would call it “The World Championships”. It is a festival of racing and a massive social occasion too. There is a massive rivalry between the Irish horses and the UK runners. In recent years the Irish have certainly had the best of it.

Why are we hearing so much about Cheltenham? It seems everywhere you look there are people jumping on the “Cheltenham” bandwagon. It’s one of the few times in the racing calendar that the mainstream press mention horse racing.

Bookies have “offers”, mostly to get new customers coming at you thick and fast. A Matched Bettors heaven.  I don’t want to drone on too much, so I’ll cut to the chase.

The racing is on the face of it very competitive, big fields and often the favourite is in close to double figures. Depending on your style of trading this can be good or bad. For us swing traders, it’s mostly bad. On the upside, you can get huge amounts safely into the market. But bad, because, it possibly won’t swing 20 ticks.

You will see seeming impossible amounts of money that you are in a queue behind, but this money gets matched much quicker than in a normal race, so it sort of evens itself out.

If you like to turn over large amounts in what can be stable markets, then this is for you. If volatility is what you trade on. Then, by all means, give it a go. But you may get frustrated.

What I am attempting to do with this post is manage your expectations. I guarantee that Twatter, Facebook and every blog you read will be full of stories or daring do and huge profits. For most of you, the week will be a disappointment. That’s because the Cheltenham frenzy has raised your level of expectation so high that it will be almost impossible to reach.

Enjoy the spectacle, it’s the best week of the year, but it’s not all about money. The fear of missing out will rear its ugly head for sure over the next few days. Go in with low expectations and it will be more enjoyable.

Steve @itsamugsgame

Jon @headgamestrader

Just a quick note to say we still have a couple of places left on the next Workshop on 26th March. You can book here

If we can do it, you can do it.

So often people believe there must be something very specific about traders who achieve success. Believing these people to have the “genius gene”, access to the “secret sauce” or that they are members of a covert club of betting exchange alchemists. It’s not difficult to fall into this idea, particularly if you’ve spent a great deal of time and money trying to uncover these secrets only for them to always elude you. But the reality is much, much simpler. Each and every successful trader has one thing in common; perseverance. Successful traders do not give up. However, this may be the only thing some successful traders share because traders come from all walks of life, and that’s the beauty of trading. Anyone can do it, anyone. If you have an open mind, patience and are willing to commit to constant, continuous learning, you can become a successful trader. 

Neither of us has a genius gene, we don’t have a special recipe and we certainly don’t have membership to any covert clubs. (Steve does have a thing for gimp masks, so that may not be altogether true). What we do have is a strategy, a strategy that, when employed correctly, offers you real possibility to achieve what you want from your trading. Don’t be fooled, your PC won’t instantly become a cash machine. You need to learn how to use this strategy effectively, this takes time, dedication, enormous amounts of patience, very real commitment. It’s not easy, but it is real.

If you don’t give up, if you have enough patience, open mindedness, a willingness to learn and are ready to commit, book your seat, 2018 Workshops

Steve & Jon.


Jon Murphy…In his own words

Earlier in the Month I announced my partnership with my good friend Jon Murphy.

Already the members of MGWorld are feeling the benefits of having Jon involved with the project. Having someone who has made the long and hard journey to becoming a full-time trader can only be of massive benefit to anyone wanting to make the same transition.

As I said before, Jon’s skill set really complements my own, to give you guys even more.

Jon has made a video introducing himself and the reasons why we got together.

Cheers Steve




WTF did I do that for?!

How many times have you asked yourself that?

How many times have you said; “I cant believe I’ve just done that, again”.

There are aspects of our subconscious that, when we are presented with certain situations, will simply take over. Leaving us bewildered by our actions, actions that are in complete conflict with what we want to achieve. You know what you want to do, you know what you don’t want to do, but you still go against your rules. Rules you’ve told yourself over and over you will absolutely stick to. How many times has that little devil voice told you “Hang on a bit longer, it’ll come back” or “Go on. It’s a front runner. You’ll get it back in the run…”? This little voice is your worst enemy and, try as you might to get rid of it, every time you’re in the red end of a trade, that little voice begins to whisper.







Trading psychology is a much bigger beast than many people realise. Some very lucky people are predisposed to the right mental make up but the vast majority are not, me included. But, armed with some knowledge, understanding and a few simple tricks, you can begin to get a handle on that self sabotage, improve your mental confidence and, as a consequence, your trading results.

As well as Strategy, Market Assessment, Trade Management, Analysis, Low Hanging Fruit, etc, the MGWorld Foundation Course focuses heavily on Trading Psychology. Helping you understand the root cause of an issue, how to identify and avoid counter productive behaviors. Stopping the internal dialogue that leads you to creating those reds over and over again.

If you want to stop making such crucial errors with your trading, if you want to be part of a community whose members strive daily to help each other achieve, if you want access to continuous learning and development, access to pro traders with a wealth of knowledge and experience, you need to seriously consider the MGWorld Racing Workshop and Mastermind Group.

2018 MGWorld Workshops





MGWorld grows at a rate of knots. Faster than I ever thought it could. So much so, it’s become necessary to bring in additional expertise, not just to help with the day to day running of MGWorld, but to offer a different perspective, a different set of skills and, as a result, greater value to MGWorld members.
Jon Murphy has been trading for many years but joined MGWorld back in 2014. Bringing a wealth of knowledge and experience, from the very start Jon began offering help and advice across all aspects of trading, on-hand to assist members on a daily basis with all manner of questions, writing papers on a broad range of trading topics. Holding webinars to offer detailed understanding of our main strategies and, in particular, trading psychology.
Knowledge, experience and readiness to help are invaluable, but Jon and I share a greater common trait; we are both passionate about helping others achieve success within trading.
As partners in MGWorld, we believe we can offer our members even greater learning, a more in-depth understanding of the markets and the best opportunity to succeed.







If you don’t already follow Jon, you’ll find him here @headgamestrader







Fear Of Missing Out


The fear of missing out is one of the biggest hurdles we face as traders. We see it on a daily basis with our Mastermind Group and on all the social media platforms too. It’s a monster alright.


So what is FOMO? How many times have you seen the old bandwagon leaving town? The urge to jump on is sometimes just too great to overcome. So you just manage to get on as it sails on by. Just as it slams into reverse gear and makes you giddy with the pace it reverses at!


During the Workshops we do, the very first thing that is said is to do with finding a SAFE place to put your money. It’s almost “exit first” then see if you have an entry point. Many times FOMO takes over, and all common sense and safe entries are forgotten.


The secret is to learn how to get on that Band Wagon before it leaves town. In fact even better if you can drive that bastard! Then when you have got as many as possible along with you for the ride. You jump off and leave it to find its own way.


The alternative is when you miss the initial move, find the driver. Who is driving this Band Wagon? When I say that I mean which other runner (s) are moving in the opposite direction due to the BW move? Watch them very closely. The candlestick graphs may be a mirror as in the diagram below.

See the collation of the candlesticks?

FOMO pic







This may suggest that the drift on the fav is being primarily caused by the steam on the 2nd favourite. So who is the driver? Which is driving which?

The way we look at it is the Favourite always wants to be backed. Everyone wants a winner, don’t they? So where better to start than with the fav?

So if it’s drifting, this must be caused by another runner(s) – Usually more than 1. In this case, I take it that the “driver” is Ladder 2. I have layed the favourite. So when is the exit point? That’s either to exit the lay trade or even an opportunity to grab that reverse gear I spoke about if you missed getting on the Band Wagon.

Wait until the driver stops, there will be signs it’s slowing down. There is almost always a delay before the odds start to react on the connected runner. In this case the fav. That’s the signal we are looking for.


Just remember next time you jump on that Band Wagon. Here in MGW, we are waiting to get off at just about that time.


If you are serious about Trading and would like to learn. Please take a look at our Workshops (LINK) and Mastermind Program (LINK)


Add us on Twitter at @itsamugsgame and @Headgamestrader or perhaps visit the Facebook page at

Are you Pavlov’s dog?


If you’re not aware of Ivan Pavlov, in brief, he had some dogs that, thinking they were about to be fed, would salivate whenever he came into the room. Regardless of whether he fed them or not, the dog’s pleasure sensors would leap into action. Ivan began to study this further using a bell to signal feeding time. The dogs then associated the bell with being fed which, again, got their juices flowing. Such was the influence of the bell, no matter how often Ivan rang the bell without feeding the dogs, they still got enormously excited when they heard it.
Another set of scientists, more recently, took the concept even further with rats. They set up a button that would, only 50% of the time, deliver a drop of sugar water when pressed. These rats overcame numerous obstacles to press the button, they even put themselves through physical pain to reach the button and the sugar water. So much so, the scientists laid down an electrified floor which the rats readily crossed in the hope that on this occasion the sugar water would be dispensed. (Some of the rat’s feet were burnt to nubs but they still persisted)

Now, you may be thinking what the blue blazes does this have to do with trading? Well, apply the same principle to the markets. Are you making the same mistakes over and over, blowing bank after bank, in the hope of this one delivering? When those reds keep burning your feet, it’s the intermittent greens that keep you salivating.


Account Security

One of the things I talk about on my Workshops is how to manage your accounts. Betfair is not like Lloyds.

You have had your bank account hacked and have an account with Lloyds.

You: “ Hello, is that Lloyds?. I have had £12,456 taken from my account”

Lloyds: “ Very sorry to hear that Sir, we will transfer that amount straight to your account now”

You: Cheers

Same scenario with Betfair.

You: Hello, is that Betfair? I have had £3459 taken from my account”

You: Hello? Hello?

Betfair – Sniggering heard in the background – “Er, oh. Sorry about that. But your password is your own responsibility. If it’s used and your money was taken, that’s not our fault. I can, however, offer you a £25 free bet on our Sportsbook as a way of helping you overcome this inconvenience”

Betfair, to their credit, do have another level of protection that you can activate. How successful it is I have no idea. But any extra security has to be welcomed and used.

It’s called 2 step authentication. It’s basically an app for your smartphone. When you log into Betfair, you open the app and use the 6 digit code that is provided. It’s very easy to implement.

Betfair has made an excellent series of videos that show you how it works and how to get it. I will post them below. I strongly recommend you get this if you haven’t already.


If you are interested in learning how I trade. I have a few places left for my Workshop on 29th January Link To Workshop Page





Dealing With Quiet Periods

With a little “down time” I thought I would share with you my thoughts about how I deal with these days where Racing is badly affected by abandoned meetings.

I often hear comments like “I just want to make £5 a race” or “£100 a day”. I think this timescale is ridiculous and adds pressure to your trading. On a 30 race day, your target of £150 is under severe pressure if after 20 races you are not “on target” or even down for the day. This will affect your decision-making process for the rest of the day, make no mistake.

I always look at the “Big Picture” – This Big Picture extends beyond even Months and into Quarters. How many Companies do you see publishing their results on a weekly basis? Sure, it’s always a good idea to keep track of exactly where you are in the short term. But this is for information purposes only.

When I first started trading I diversified quickly, finding a way to make money from a market, then moving on to something else. Nowadays i trade pretty much exclusively on Pre-race markets. But having what could be called a “portfolio” of different markets to trade is smart if you are relying on your trading.


  • Always look at the bigger picture
  • Create a Portfolio of strategies on different sports
  • Accept that there are quiet periods in whatever is your main Sport you trade. – The Tennis boys have been quiet lately
  • Use the quiet periods to be productive, either finding new sports to trade or have a productive time with your loved ones. Did you know there is a baby boom within trading circles every October :)