5 Things To Avoid When Trading

5 Things To Avoid When Trading

 

  1. Distractions
  2. No exit plan
  3. FOMO
  4. Get involved in markets that haven’t matured
  5. Letting previous trades influence you

 

 

Distractions

You will have read similar words from me before on this subject. If you are some sort of Zen warrior, you may be able to build some mental barriers to block out outside distractions. However, for us mere mortals we need to put extra steps in place. Just having a quiet area to work in, without the influence of any outside interference is something I consider very important. Imagine taking the family to work with you and then try to do your job!

 

Having No Exit Plan

Or even no plan at all! I am often staggered by traders’ lack of planning. A bad plan is better than no plan. One of the very first things I do when formulating my trading plan for a market is to identify a potential exit route. I have different routes for back and lay trades. But before I commit my money into a trade I want to know I can exit that trade with a minimal loss if I have got it wrong.

 

FOMO (Fear Of Missing out)

My pet hate, but a powerful emotion. Jumping on that bandwagon because you are scared to miss out is always punished harshly as I am sure many of you know. These band wagons or glory trains never last forever, and the later you get involved the more likely you will lose money. Spotting the beginning of a move and having that exit plan in place is so important. It does not matter what the twitter heroes are doing. Or any other traders you have access too. It’s important to realise that there are few that want to share their shite trades with you but are very happy to wave their cocks about when things are going well for them. It sucks you in, is destructive and I strongly advise you to do your own thing without any regard for what others say they are doing.

 

Get involved With Markets That Have Not Matured

What do I mean by this? A great indicator of a volatile market is to watch the candlesticks, what we are looking for is a smooth progression, and a build-up of money traded at each odds point. If the market is jumping up4 ticks and then down 3, then I do not consider the market safe enough to enter. If you watch the video below I hope this will make sense.

Be Affected By Previous trades

The impact of a previous trade is something we all feel. That includes a winning trade or a run of winning trades as well as losing ones. Trading can be severely affected by confidence. So when you are flying you can feel almost invincible, and when you are losing it can drag you into a dark place. This opens up a huge can of worms such as over trading, chasing losses, increasing you stakes unrealistically when you are doing well. All are destructive. Keep a calm, level head and don’t let your emotions carry you away in either direction.

5 Things you need to be a successful trader

Successful Trading: Five things you need:

 

  • Mental toughness
  • Focus
  • Toolkit
  • Process
  • Support

 

This list is by no means exhaustive, but it’s a good start. I could spend ages talking about each subject here. If I get asked enough then I probably will!

 

 

  • Mental Toughness

Let me be blunt. Trading is a real head fuck. It really gets inside your head and messes with it. Making what are normally rational decisions become very difficult in the heat of the battle. When you have your hard earned money involved it changes everything. Some people are over cautious. Others think they are invincible. It’s not until after the event and they see the result of their actions that reality kicks in. The key skill is to be able to manage your emotions, keep them in some sort of control. This enables you to apply the focus and processes you need to make a successful trade. Learning to trade is a long and arduous road. Even with a high level of training, it will take lots of practice and screen time. Lots of knock backs, false starts and disappointments. It is no coincidence that the guys I have been involved with long-term are mostly successful. The ones that lack the mental toughness to “dig in” are the ones who don’t quite get there.

 

  • Focus

Focus is something I think many of us overlook when it comes to planning a trading session. A lap top in the front room while eating your tea, listening to the days news from your partner and having a couple of excitable kids jumping all over you is not ideal conditions for a successful trading session.

Make sure you have a quiet place to trade with no interruptions. Imagine being Neo when he plugs into the Matrix – You won’t go far wrong.

BUT, do not exchange trading for spending a little time with your family.

 

  • Toolkit

What do I mean by a toolkit?  The tools of the trade. Starting with a bank. This should be money put aside specifically to trade with. Money that you can afford to lose, (who can afford to lose money????) i.e You won’t need it back to pay your rent or mortgage at the end of the month. It doesn’t have to be a huge amount. Even £50 can get you started.

 

Second on the list is hardware/internet. A mid-spec PC will be fine to trade with, as long as you have 10MB internet speed you will be fine. The most important part of a hardware set up is a decent sized screen. The bigger the better. (I use a 27”).

 

Third on the toolkit list is a third party App. This is essential. It enables you to see the signals that the market provides and find your trades. You can execute them quickly with one click mostly and enable protection systems like “Take SP”.  I am not going to recommend an App, but the most popular ones are Bet Angel, Gruss Betting Assistant and The Geeks Toy. All slightly different and all top class products.

 

  • Process

Sitting there blindly clicking away may well make you a few quid. But in general, knowing what you are doing is a good idea! The markets throw up signals that help you to work out what may happen next. Your mission is to find these signals and interpret them.

What is vital is to concentrate on the process and execution, NOT how much profit you are making. That will come with time once you have mastered the PROCESS.

Training is an excellent idea. Whether that is with me or with someone else. Going alone isn’t always the best investment in your time or bank balance. Invest in yourself!

 

  • Support

This comes into two parts really.

 

Part 1 – Partner and family

You must have the support of your partner when starting this journey. They will soon get fed up with you being away from the family unit every spare hour you have, possibly losing money too. Partners expect instant results!!!! This is very unlikely. However much you make, it isn’t worth losing your partner for.

 

Part 2 – Other Traders/Mentors

From my experience running MGW, our Mastermind Program is a great success. It brings like-minded folk together, lets them learn from each other in a friendly and creative environment. Having a shoulder to cry on. Someone who understands what you are actually talking about means a lot. It’s hugely beneficial both in terms of learning and your mental health too.

 

My next Workshop runs on 24thSeptember in Coventry.

There are still a few places left.

Workshop Link

 

F.O.M.O

F.O.M.O

Fear Of Missing Out

 

The fear of missing out is one of the biggest hurdles we face as traders. We see it on a daily basis with our Mastermind Group and on all the social media platforms too. It’s a monster alright.

 

So what is FOMO? How many times have you seen the old bandwagon leaving town? The urge to jump on is sometimes just too great to overcome. So you just manage to get on as it sails on by. Just as it slams into reverse gear and makes you giddy with the pace it reverses at!

 

During the Workshops we do, the very first thing that is said is to do with finding a SAFE place to put your money. It’s almost “exit first” then see if you have an entry point. Many times FOMO takes over, and all common sense and safe entries are forgotten.

 

The secret is to learn how to get on that Band Wagon before it leaves town. In fact even better if you can drive that bastard! Then when you have got as many as possible along with you for the ride. You jump off and leave it to find its own way.

 

The alternative is when you miss the initial move, find the driver. Who is driving this Band Wagon? When I say that I mean which other runner (s) are moving in the opposite direction due to the BW move? Watch them very closely. The candlestick graphs may be a mirror as in the diagram below.

See the collation of the candlesticks?

FOMO pic

 

 

 

 

 

 

This may suggest that the drift on the fav is being primarily caused by the steam on the 2nd favourite. So who is the driver? Which is driving which?

The way we look at it is the Favourite always wants to be backed. Everyone wants a winner, don’t they? So where better to start than with the fav?

So if it’s drifting, this must be caused by another runner(s) – Usually more than 1. In this case, I take it that the “driver” is Ladder 2. I have layed the favourite. So when is the exit point? That’s either to exit the lay trade or even an opportunity to grab that reverse gear I spoke about if you missed getting on the Band Wagon.

Wait until the driver stops, there will be signs it’s slowing down. There is almost always a delay before the odds start to react on the connected runner. In this case the fav. That’s the signal we are looking for.

 

Just remember next time you jump on that Band Wagon. Here in MGW, we are waiting to get off at just about that time.

 

If you are serious about Trading and would like to learn. Please take a look at our Workshops (LINK) and Mastermind Program (LINK)

 

Add us on Twitter at @itsamugsgame and @Headgamestrader or perhaps visit the Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/ItsAMugsGame/

Account Security

One of the things I talk about on my Workshops is how to manage your accounts. Betfair is not like Lloyds.

You have had your bank account hacked and have an account with Lloyds.

You: “ Hello, is that Lloyds?. I have had £12,456 taken from my account”

Lloyds: “ Very sorry to hear that Sir, we will transfer that amount straight to your account now”

You: Cheers

Same scenario with Betfair.

You: Hello, is that Betfair? I have had £3459 taken from my account”

You: Hello? Hello?

Betfair – Sniggering heard in the background – “Er, oh. Sorry about that. But your password is your own responsibility. If it’s used and your money was taken, that’s not our fault. I can, however, offer you a £25 free bet on our Sportsbook as a way of helping you overcome this inconvenience”

Betfair, to their credit, do have another level of protection that you can activate. How successful it is I have no idea. But any extra security has to be welcomed and used.

It’s called 2 step authentication. It’s basically an app for your smartphone. When you log into Betfair, you open the app and use the 6 digit code that is provided. It’s very easy to implement.

Betfair has made an excellent series of videos that show you how it works and how to get it. I will post them below. I strongly recommend you get this if you haven’t already.

 

If you are interested in learning how I trade. I have a few places left for my Workshop on 29th January Link To Workshop Page

 

 

 

 

Gruss Settings

Been a while since I had a chance to blog. Really busy with mentoring, trading and …..living!

I picked up a comment from a guy called David who asked about sharing the way I set up Gruss. I have been sharing my settings with my workshop groups for ages, but though it may help a few of you if you wanted to set up as I do. When you have a new software package it can be pretty daunting find your way around it. This video just scratches the surface of what the software can do. But these are my basic ladder settings.

Not sure if anyone gives a flying fuck what I am up to at the moment and maybe what there isn’t too much material going up. In terms of trading videos, these are pretty time consuming and to be honest I think that if you watch the material I have up you can get the guest of what I do. I have no real desire to keep repeating the same old material over and over.

My Workshops have been a massive success and my network of guys who I Mentor within what we call “MG World” are going from strength to strength. At last count we had something like 20 full time traders in the group now. So it isn’t all about me. These guys all bring their own skills and experience to the group. All have attended a workshop with me, so we all trade the same way and this is incredibly helpful to the less experienced guys. I have 2 workshops left this year, 26th Sept and 21st November. I don’t have too many places left for September, so if you were thinking of booking I would advise you to do it sooner rather than later. Having many taking up the option to join the Mentor group too which is fantastic.

LINK to Racing Workshop page

Been enjoying the dry weather and a chance to get out on my Motorcycle. My illness last year stopped me getting out too much, so by time this spring came I had cabin fever and was desperate to put some miles on. Been taking advantage of the quite Monday and Tuesday afternoons to get some serious miles in. By the time Wednesday comes I am chomping at the bit to trade again.

Although I haven’t blogged too much, I do post stuff on my Facebook group. https://www.facebook.com/ItsAMugsGame/

As always, happy to answer any questions you have.

Cheers

Steve

New Year – Clean Slate

First off I want to wish you all a very Happy New Year!

Many people join in with the tradition of the ol’ New Years resolution. I’m not so much one for that. It usually involves me vowing never to eat another bacon sandwich or Pork Pie again. Ever. But by by brekkie time the Bacon finds itself lodged between 2 slices of bread and as I single handily keep Melton Mobray’s economy afloat, it would be irresponsible for me to ditch the odd Pork Pie :)

But it can be a good time to have a look at your trading and review your past results and seek improvement. My Mentorship group are well versed in me going on about reviewing past trades. A minimum requirement is good record keeping, which I have blogged about before, you can read that HERE.

Another thing you can do is record them on video, I often say that when I watch even really good trades back I am like an 8 year old watching Dr Who, with a cushion over my face. You see every little error you make. But it helps you improve for sure. If you keep making the same mistakes over and over it becomes almost reckless. So you need to find that inner strength to STOP!

If you want to record your trades you can use this great FREE software, it’s the choice of gamers that post their videos on You Tube. You can get it HERE . It’s called OBS. Configuring it is easy if you type OBS into You Tube, there are lots of videos showing how to set it up and use it. That’s how I learned :)

So this is a good time to turn over a new leaf. To leave all of those sloppy and reckless trades behind. Tighten things up and concentrate on making small improvements. I heard Dave Brailsford who is the team principle for Team GB Cycling and also the SKY Racing team talk about a concept he referred to as the “aggregation of marginal gains.” He explained it as “the 1 percent margin for improvement in everything you do.” His believed that if you improved every area related to cycling by just 1 percent, then those small gains would add up to a massive  improvement.

He looked he nutrition of riders, their training program, the ergonomics of the seat, and the weight of the tyres. They searched for 1 percent improvements in tiny areas that were overlooked by almost everyone else. They found the pillow that offered the best sleep and taking it with them to hotels, testing for the most effective type of massage gel, and teaching riders the best way to wash their hands to avoid infection. They searched for 1 percent improvements everywhere. The results are well documented.

This concept is nothing new. You may have read about my time working at Toyota and way they use Kaizen: The concept of continuous improvement. It works in the same way and lends itself very well to trading.

There is something that is used in Kaizen called PDCA – Or Plan-Do-Check-Act. Simply put….

Plan -Make a Plan

Do – Carry out your plan

Check – Check the results of your actions

Act – Carry out you corrective actions

PDCA-1

 

 

 

 

 

Hope this gives you some ideas for your trading in the New Year. If you are interested in learning how I trade have a look at my Racing Workshops!

 

Happy New Year

 

 

Visualisation Part 1

My latest Mentorship Induction has once again bought into focus how we view data.
Without doubt this is the most important tool we have in trying to understand the dark art that is the Racing market.

I have many questions about this and thought it was about time I addressed it.

As many of you will know my background is from manufacturing, specifically in the Motor Industry. I spent most of my manufacturing career at Peugeot including a 9 week spell at Toyota. The Toyota experience was particularly enlightening. They pretty much wrote the book on modern manufacturing techniques that most of the World’s blue chip Company’s use in their manufacturing processes. It is widely know as Kaizen or “continuous improvement”. This philosophy opens up a whole range of lean manufacturing techniques, which I won’t bore you with. But the one I want to talk about here is the visualisation aspect.

Within each area of the Toyota plant is a space where there are information can be displayed. Every aspect of each areas performance is measured. From staff absence to build numbers. It is heavily influenced by quality indicators and they are all displayed in a familiar pattern. The idea is anyone from the management team can walk into each area and within a few minutes get an unto date snapshot of how the area is performing and more importantly see any negative trends developing that require attention. This works very well, as Toyota produce some of the highest quality and reliable cars ever built.

So what has this got to do with Betfair/Betdaq and trading?

Visualisation. It taught me how important it is visualise what is going on. To see a bigger picture.
Now you will be familiar with my set up.It’s about as simple as it gets. There isn’t that much data that is returned from Betfair, but there are a multitude of ways we can display it. The software vendors have given us lots of options with this. So you wannabe City Traders can sit there with multiple screens filled with impressive looking graphs and charts to help you make some profit. Now although I snigger at this, let me say that for some of you I am sure it works. And that’s the point. You need to use the visualisation tools that you have to understand what is going on.

What do I need to understand the market?

How much Traded Volume?
How much was matched at what odds?
When was it matched?
What odds is being matched now?
How much money is available at each price point?
How quickly is this being matched?

These are the key pieces of information. The rest is how that is visualised.

In Part 2 I will go deeper into that.
This screenshot has all the indicators I use. Less is more for me.
Visualisation1