F.O.M.O

F.O.M.O

Fear Of Missing Out

 

The fear of missing out is one of the biggest hurdles we face as traders. We see it on a daily basis with our Mastermind Group and on all the social media platforms too. It’s a monster alright.

 

So what is FOMO? How many times have you seen the old bandwagon leaving town? The urge to jump on is sometimes just too great to overcome. So you just manage to get on as it sails on by. Just as it slams into reverse gear and makes you giddy with the pace it reverses at!

 

During the Workshops we do, the very first thing that is said is to do with finding a SAFE place to put your money. It’s almost “exit first” then see if you have an entry point. Many times FOMO takes over, and all common sense and safe entries are forgotten.

 

The secret is to learn how to get on that Band Wagon before it leaves town. In fact even better if you can drive that bastard! Then when you have got as many as possible along with you for the ride. You jump off and leave it to find its own way.

 

The alternative is when you miss the initial move, find the driver. Who is driving this Band Wagon? When I say that I mean which other runner (s) are moving in the opposite direction due to the BW move? Watch them very closely. The candlestick graphs may be a mirror as in the diagram below.

See the collation of the candlesticks?

FOMO pic

 

 

 

 

 

 

This may suggest that the drift on the fav is being primarily caused by the steam on the 2nd favourite. So who is the driver? Which is driving which?

The way we look at it is the Favourite always wants to be backed. Everyone wants a winner, don’t they? So where better to start than with the fav?

So if it’s drifting, this must be caused by another runner(s) – Usually more than 1. In this case, I take it that the “driver” is Ladder 2. I have layed the favourite. So when is the exit point? That’s either to exit the lay trade or even an opportunity to grab that reverse gear I spoke about if you missed getting on the Band Wagon.

Wait until the driver stops, there will be signs it’s slowing down. There is almost always a delay before the odds start to react on the connected runner. In this case the fav. That’s the signal we are looking for.

 

Just remember next time you jump on that Band Wagon. Here in MGW, we are waiting to get off at just about that time.

 

If you are serious about Trading and would like to learn. Please take a look at our Workshops (LINK) and Mastermind Program (LINK)

 

Add us on Twitter at @itsamugsgame and @Headgamestrader or perhaps visit the Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/ItsAMugsGame/

Account Security

One of the things I talk about on my Workshops is how to manage your accounts. Betfair is not like Lloyds.

You have had your bank account hacked and have an account with Lloyds.

You: “ Hello, is that Lloyds?. I have had £12,456 taken from my account”

Lloyds: “ Very sorry to hear that Sir, we will transfer that amount straight to your account now”

You: Cheers

Same scenario with Betfair.

You: Hello, is that Betfair? I have had £3459 taken from my account”

You: Hello? Hello?

Betfair – Sniggering heard in the background – “Er, oh. Sorry about that. But your password is your own responsibility. If it’s used and your money was taken, that’s not our fault. I can, however, offer you a £25 free bet on our Sportsbook as a way of helping you overcome this inconvenience”

Betfair, to their credit, do have another level of protection that you can activate. How successful it is I have no idea. But any extra security has to be welcomed and used.

It’s called 2 step authentication. It’s basically an app for your smartphone. When you log into Betfair, you open the app and use the 6 digit code that is provided. It’s very easy to implement.

Betfair has made an excellent series of videos that show you how it works and how to get it. I will post them below. I strongly recommend you get this if you haven’t already.

 

If you are interested in learning how I trade. I have a few places left for my Workshop on 29th January Link To Workshop Page

 

 

 

 

Gruss Settings

Been a while since I had a chance to blog. Really busy with mentoring, trading and …..living!

I picked up a comment from a guy called David who asked about sharing the way I set up Gruss. I have been sharing my settings with my workshop groups for ages, but though it may help a few of you if you wanted to set up as I do. When you have a new software package it can be pretty daunting find your way around it. This video just scratches the surface of what the software can do. But these are my basic ladder settings.

Not sure if anyone gives a flying fuck what I am up to at the moment and maybe what there isn’t too much material going up. In terms of trading videos, these are pretty time consuming and to be honest I think that if you watch the material I have up you can get the guest of what I do. I have no real desire to keep repeating the same old material over and over.

My Workshops have been a massive success and my network of guys who I Mentor within what we call “MG World” are going from strength to strength. At last count we had something like 20 full time traders in the group now. So it isn’t all about me. These guys all bring their own skills and experience to the group. All have attended a workshop with me, so we all trade the same way and this is incredibly helpful to the less experienced guys. I have 2 workshops left this year, 26th Sept and 21st November. I don’t have too many places left for September, so if you were thinking of booking I would advise you to do it sooner rather than later. Having many taking up the option to join the Mentor group too which is fantastic.

LINK to Racing Workshop page

Been enjoying the dry weather and a chance to get out on my Motorcycle. My illness last year stopped me getting out too much, so by time this spring came I had cabin fever and was desperate to put some miles on. Been taking advantage of the quite Monday and Tuesday afternoons to get some serious miles in. By the time Wednesday comes I am chomping at the bit to trade again.

Although I haven’t blogged too much, I do post stuff on my Facebook group. https://www.facebook.com/ItsAMugsGame/

As always, happy to answer any questions you have.

Cheers

Steve

New Year – Clean Slate

First off I want to wish you all a very Happy New Year!

Many people join in with the tradition of the ol’ New Years resolution. I’m not so much one for that. It usually involves me vowing never to eat another bacon sandwich or Pork Pie again. Ever. But by by brekkie time the Bacon finds itself lodged between 2 slices of bread and as I single handily keep Melton Mobray’s economy afloat, it would be irresponsible for me to ditch the odd Pork Pie :)

But it can be a good time to have a look at your trading and review your past results and seek improvement. My Mentorship group are well versed in me going on about reviewing past trades. A minimum requirement is good record keeping, which I have blogged about before, you can read that HERE.

Another thing you can do is record them on video, I often say that when I watch even really good trades back I am like an 8 year old watching Dr Who, with a cushion over my face. You see every little error you make. But it helps you improve for sure. If you keep making the same mistakes over and over it becomes almost reckless. So you need to find that inner strength to STOP!

If you want to record your trades you can use this great FREE software, it’s the choice of gamers that post their videos on You Tube. You can get it HERE . It’s called OBS. Configuring it is easy if you type OBS into You Tube, there are lots of videos showing how to set it up and use it. That’s how I learned :)

So this is a good time to turn over a new leaf. To leave all of those sloppy and reckless trades behind. Tighten things up and concentrate on making small improvements. I heard Dave Brailsford who is the team principle for Team GB Cycling and also the SKY Racing team talk about a concept he referred to as the “aggregation of marginal gains.” He explained it as “the 1 percent margin for improvement in everything you do.” His believed that if you improved every area related to cycling by just 1 percent, then those small gains would add up to a massive  improvement.

He looked he nutrition of riders, their training program, the ergonomics of the seat, and the weight of the tyres. They searched for 1 percent improvements in tiny areas that were overlooked by almost everyone else. They found the pillow that offered the best sleep and taking it with them to hotels, testing for the most effective type of massage gel, and teaching riders the best way to wash their hands to avoid infection. They searched for 1 percent improvements everywhere. The results are well documented.

This concept is nothing new. You may have read about my time working at Toyota and way they use Kaizen: The concept of continuous improvement. It works in the same way and lends itself very well to trading.

There is something that is used in Kaizen called PDCA – Or Plan-Do-Check-Act. Simply put….

Plan -Make a Plan

Do – Carry out your plan

Check – Check the results of your actions

Act – Carry out you corrective actions

PDCA-1

 

 

 

 

 

Hope this gives you some ideas for your trading in the New Year. If you are interested in learning how I trade have a look at my Racing Workshops!

 

Happy New Year

 

 

Visualisation Part 1

My latest Mentorship Induction has once again bought into focus how we view data.
Without doubt this is the most important tool we have in trying to understand the dark art that is the Racing market.

I have many questions about this and thought it was about time I addressed it.

As many of you will know my background is from manufacturing, specifically in the Motor Industry. I spent most of my manufacturing career at Peugeot including a 9 week spell at Toyota. The Toyota experience was particularly enlightening. They pretty much wrote the book on modern manufacturing techniques that most of the World’s blue chip Company’s use in their manufacturing processes. It is widely know as Kaizen or “continuous improvement”. This philosophy opens up a whole range of lean manufacturing techniques, which I won’t bore you with. But the one I want to talk about here is the visualisation aspect.

Within each area of the Toyota plant is a space where there are information can be displayed. Every aspect of each areas performance is measured. From staff absence to build numbers. It is heavily influenced by quality indicators and they are all displayed in a familiar pattern. The idea is anyone from the management team can walk into each area and within a few minutes get an unto date snapshot of how the area is performing and more importantly see any negative trends developing that require attention. This works very well, as Toyota produce some of the highest quality and reliable cars ever built.

So what has this got to do with Betfair/Betdaq and trading?

Visualisation. It taught me how important it is visualise what is going on. To see a bigger picture.
Now you will be familiar with my set up.It’s about as simple as it gets. There isn’t that much data that is returned from Betfair, but there are a multitude of ways we can display it. The software vendors have given us lots of options with this. So you wannabe City Traders can sit there with multiple screens filled with impressive looking graphs and charts to help you make some profit. Now although I snigger at this, let me say that for some of you I am sure it works. And that’s the point. You need to use the visualisation tools that you have to understand what is going on.

What do I need to understand the market?

How much Traded Volume?
How much was matched at what odds?
When was it matched?
What odds is being matched now?
How much money is available at each price point?
How quickly is this being matched?

These are the key pieces of information. The rest is how that is visualised.

In Part 2 I will go deeper into that.
This screenshot has all the indicators I use. Less is more for me.
Visualisation1