Category Archives: Racing

Some help to deal with an outage

When this happens It’s a fact of life when trading on the Betting exchanges that sometimes things go badly wrong.

One such instance is when you have a trade in market and your screen freezes. There are a few things you can do to help yourself here.

Internet Issues:

Most people now have smart phones / tablets – Log into Betfair with 4g – If your internet goes you have a backup.

You can close a trade by phone if you are quick.

You can offset the bet on another exchange, such asBetdaq / S Markets or matchbook if you have a funded account. This isn’t as easy as it sounds.

Get friendly with your neighbour, see if you can blag their wifi password :)

Exchange Outage:

This happened on Saturday afternoon last on Betfair. When this happens your options are somewhat limited. There is one particular safeguard I regularly use; Take SP.

Take SP is a feature built into the major 3rd party vendor apps such as Gruss, Bet Angel and Geek Toy. If you enable this (I have a video, showing how to do this) it gives you some protection. It’s not perfect, but it can help save you from a huge loss.

In this video, it shows how to use guardian within Bet Angel to “Take SP”. What I would suggest is that you change the time of enabling Take SP to fit in the timeframe you are trading in. It’s no good taking SP 5 seconds from the scheduled start of the race is you have a trade in 3 minutes out and Betfair goes down. Peter makes a better fist of showing you this in his training videos.

If you Google “Using SP automation as a safety feature – YouTube” it will come up as the top answer.

My video is at the end of the post.

You may notice I have had a revamp of my Workshops for the rest of 2017. If you are interested in learning how to trade take a look HERE

Cheers Steve

 

York, The Dante and Betdaq SP

Well it’s mid May already and we are starting to get a bit of heat in the sun. The big meeting in May (apart from the Guineas meeting) is at York and includes the Dante. The Dante is usually considered the most important of all the Derby trials. In recent times the stats are impressive.Winners of the Dante have won the derby in ’94 – Erhaab, 97 – Benny The Dip, ’04 North Light, ’05 Motivator, ’07 Authorized, ’15 Golden Horn (also won the Arc).

In 2014 The Grey Gadsby won the St James Palace at Royal Ascot and back in ’95 Classic Cliche won the St Ledger, So this race has a rich history. I expect the winner to shorten significantly in the Derby Ante post betting.

Something else of note today is Betdaq announcing a new product . They are calling it XSP. I expect it to be the same as BFSP. Although I haven’t seen the way they are going to calculate it as yet.

I am a big fan of Betfair’s SP. What is important to note about these type of SP products though is they are a SAFETY NET and NOT an exit strategy. They are often inefficient and you do better by taking the price on offer to close. However, if you lost your connection, or the site goes down. They can be a godsend and adds an extra level of security.

Another workshop for me this weekend. They are something I look forward to immensely. Always fun and it’s great to set traders on the right path. Taking bookings for July and September now if interested. You can get the details HERE

Update:

The Dante: Wings of desire was 17 seconds before he won the race – as I speak it’s 6 to Lay 5.2 to back. The Dante Fav Midterm was 4.2 during most of the race 6.6 at the furlong pole and now 17.5 to back

Chester May Meeting

One of my favourite meetings of the year is held in the first week of May at Chester. With the first two Classics out of the way, and the end of the jumps season last weekend, the Flat season proper is now underway.

Chester has some incredible history, which I am going to bore you with now. It’s an incredibly picturesque course and you can see the old City Walls surrounding part of the track.

The racecourse lies on the banks of the Dee. It was a harbour during Roman times but was closed as the river silted up thus making navigation impossible. Towards the centre of the in field is a raised mound which is decorated by a small cross known as a “rood”. It is from this that the race course derives the name “Roodee”; Roodee is a corruption of “Rood Eye”, meaning “The Island of the Cross”.

Racing began on the site in 1539 and was allowed by the then Mayor Henry Gee. This is where the term “Gee-Gee” comes from. The course is an oval, akin to a Greyhound track. It is 1m and 1furlong around and runs anti clockwise. It’s tight turns and very short straight of 239 yards make it very challenging.

So enough of the history lesson. What about Trading?

What you will see from the next 3 days is well catalogued. Races over 5 and 6 furlongs favour heavily runners drawn low. They have a huge advantage. Hold up horses always struggle here. that’s not to say it’s not impossible to be held up and win. But track position; even in longer races is very important. I think having a well balanced horse is important too. They are always turning. Pretty sure the back 2 lay boys will be out in force today. It could be a way in to piggy back some of the late money as the low runners are backed. But it’s by no means a given it will happen. Be aware of being on a low drawn drifter. It could turn quickly against you close to the off.

Look for Tom Dascombe runners too. Dascombe trains for the Ex Football Legend and Pundit Michael Owen at Manor House Stables. This huge , well financed operation is local to Chester and Owen’s favourite place being a Chester boy. I always look for his runners here, if there is money down they usual keep steaming in. As with any trade I get involved in. The most important thing I am looking for is my signals that I use to identify a trade. But if you are armed with the knowledge of perhaps why a runner is moving in a certain direction, then it gives added confidence and I can stake accordingly. Just a quick scan through sees Dascombe as the Fav in the 1st Race. The 2:10 Lily Agnes Stakes – Fiery Character. In the 3:45 he also has the favourite. It’s called Roudee (hmmmm). He also has the big 40/1 outsider in the 4:20.

The other trainer to look out for is Adien O’Brein. He likes to run some of his nicer young horses here.

There are some good races today. The highlight being the Chester Cup. Run over 2m 2f (2 complete circuits) and with 19 runners it is very competitive. Not sure of a way in yet as a trading angle.

Have a good un  – Steve

Favourite Week of the Year?

Cheltenham – A Unique and Glorious Week

 

Tried hard not to jump on the Cheltenham bandwagon. Every single person with a vested interest in making money from traders have their snouts in the trough. I don’t want to big it up at all, in fact I have a slightly different perspective,

 

Firstly, let me say that as a person who makes his living from Racing, and first and foremost is a huge fan of the sport. I love Cheltenham week. It has always held my imagination and for any Racing fan, it is the World Cup and Olympics all in one. I love everything about it and I am very excited about the week ahead.

 

Now with my trading head on I see things a little differently. Cheltenham is a fucking pain in the arse. We have had poor Racing for over a week, trainers have the better horses put away for Cheltenham, traders are keeping things tight so they have as much of a trading bank as is possible. The week after Cheltenham is another dead week too. So for the pleasure of 1 week we lose 3. Can I make as much in that one week as to make up for the poor trading on offer in the other 3? No, it’s doubtful.

 

You will know that I am pretty much a swing trader. My aim is to get involved in trades that give me more than 1 or 2 ticks. I also like to trade at the shorter end of the market. Where most of my trades are on runners with odds under or around 4.0. These types of races are at an premium at Cheltenham.

 

That’s not to say I cannot do well. On the races where I can get involved in a swing, I can add in pretty much as much money as I like, with the knowledge of a stable exit position should things go wrong. Not something I can do on a Monday afternoon at Wolverhampton.

 

I think the hype is such that many traders, especially newer ones will be thinking that you just have turn up. The promise of extra liquidity will be a licence to print money. But when you get to trade the race that has 20K sitting in front of your £25 it’s almost overwhelming.

 

One of the scariest things is the shear volume of money in the market. You might think twice about sticking in your £25 behind that £20k as I already mentioned. But imagine it like this; You have a basket of shopping and you are in your local Tesco’s. It’s Christmas and there are 100’s of people with big trolley loads at the checkouts. If this was a Tuesday when there were 7 checkouts open it would be a massive problem. But it isn’t. There are 35 checkouts open, and there are 2 members of staff on each one, helping to pack your shopping and get you through as quick as possible. So in the big scheme of things, you only have to wait a little longer than usual. Same with the fill rates at Cheltenham, big queue, but faster fill rate = quick turnaround

 

 

So a couple of tips that may help you enjoy Cheltenham

 

  • Keep your expectations in check
  • Don’t get too overwhelmed with the amounts of money in the queue in front of you
  • Know that the more traded volume that has followed into a market the slower it will react, especially before the Live shows.
  • Expect any of the Mullins/Ruby Walsh to shorten appreciably with they have winners in previous races. These like last year are ripe for accumulators.
  • Don’t get carried away by the occasion. Normal trading rules still apply.

I am not getting to write too much at the minute. But rest assured that I am still battling away with Trading and running my community of Traders  – MG World as we call it.

In respect of the Racing Workshops, they are a great success. I have just 1 place left for March 28th and a handful for May 16th. I will be releasing some new dates in the next week or so for the rest of the year. Racing Workshops

Hope you get a nice green week,

Cheers

Steve

 

 

 

Bit of a Mess!

Hi Guys,

Thought it was time I stuck a video up. I still record lots of video, but have been going though some changes behind the scenes in MG World. My Mentorship program is full and i am working on my new Racing Workshop content. It goes without saying that these videos are at a much higher level than what I can post up on You Tube, Saying that no one can accuse me of not helping aspiring traders by giving them a nudge in the right direction.

I have changed my trading set up too and now am back to using a Windows PC, my recording software has also changed and I have been trying to find ways of getting my video and screen to the highest quality I can. Not quite there yet, but hope it’s ok. I hope to be able to throw out a few more videos again now.

If you fancy attending one of my Racing Workshops, they are fantastic value and of the highest quality. I’ll show you exactly what I do and why I do it. LINK to Racing Workshop

Hope you enjoy – I made a real hash of this!

Racing Workshops – Booking Now

If there is one sport that the majority of traders want to master it’s Horse Racing. Specifically UK Pre Race. Those last few frantic and seeming impossible minutes where the market is at it’s peak. There are usually at least 30+ races per day, so lots of opportunities to profit from moves in the market.

For 2016 I can offer you the opportunity to join me for a day long Racing Workshop.

I will show you how to…..

  • Assess the Market
  • Find an Entry Point
  • Find an Exit Point
  • Understand why the prices are moving
  • Gain confidence
  • Understand how a book works and it’s significance.
  • Stop guessing which way the odds will move.

This type of trading is notoriously difficult to master. I believe this will give you the tools you need to take your trading to another level.

To compliment the Workshop you will be supplied with not only the material we reviewed during the Workshop, but many more examples of my pre race trades, all with my “unique” style of commentary.

The Workshop will be intense and FUN. It will be interactive and you will be involved throughout. My teaching style is informal and unique. While you are with me at the venue you will be very well looked after. All beverages and snacks (Muffins and biscuits) are provided Free of charge. Along with a very nice hot/cold buffet lunch. The facilities are top class.

Pricing – Booking – Availability – Venue

Price is an incredible £225. 

Booking via email mugsgame@hotmail.co.uk

Presently there are 3 dates

January 25th 2016

March 28th 2016

May 16th 2016

The Workshops will be held at The Village Hotel – Coventry

I have a specific page about the Workshops WORKSHOP It will give you all the information  If there is anything specify you wish to know please get in touch.

 

It Doesn’t Always Happen

There is no doubt that if you watch all the videos on You Tube about Betfair trading, then it’s clear to see that everyone wins , all of the time. If you in fact have more than 1 brain cell, you will have worked out that this isn’t the case. This of course depends on your style of trading.

My style as a prominently swing trader means that I have losing trades. This isn’t something I am in some way ashamed of. What i am interested is in that I make long term profits consistently. To do this I lose a few along the way.

I have said many times, and i say it on a almost daily basis to my Mentorship Group, that is ok to lose. But there are caveats to losing. The main one being it has to be controlled. Out of control trades are the bane of every aspiring trader. You know the drill. It inevitably leads into some sort of in play carnage.

What I hope to show you in this losing trade, that it’s ok to take a controlled loss. You don’t have to like it!. But there is a quiet satisfaction knowing that you are in control.

I have 1 place left for my mentorship Inductions on 28th September. If you are interested in learning to trade and getting ongoing support please get in touch. mugsgame@hotmail.co.uk

See my mentorship prospectus page here

Controlling A Loss

Controlling A Loss

I believe that this is the key skill in trading. Knowing when to take a loss.

It’s the 1st thing I talk about when I get the my Ladder trading part of Mentorship Program, and it’s a constant theme all the way though. “Have an Exit and Control your losses.”

If you know where your exit is then everything else will take care of itself – Put simply. If you watch many of my videos, you will notice that often I will mention where my exit is. In this style of trading getting it right every time can be a challenge. I am happy to make or lose relatively small amounts knowing that there will always be a couple of decent wins during most days to get the corn in.

Learning to Lose is part of the game. You don’t have to like it, but you have to accept it. What you cannot accept is out of controlled losses. Trades that start to go wrong, you think they will come back, they don’t and before you know it you’re in a world of hurt. So then “Fuck it” mode takes over. Next thing is you take it in play. ‘it’s the fav right? It HAS to trade lower” Er – No it doesn’t. So you end up losing 50% of your bank and it sets the tone of your trading for the next few weeks. If you can recognise yourself here, then listening to what I am saying may be a good idea.

So lecturing about what I call “Cuntishness” is all well and good. Having someone telling you what you should be doing while they sit up high. But putting this into practice is very difficult. Sometimes you are trying to break habits that span many years. Try stopping masterbating and you will see what i mean.

The best I can offer is to trust your method. If you find yourself in this position often, then re look at your method. But once you can take a controlled loss and walk away, you will find it almost liberating. Another thing to note is once you end the trade with either a profit or loss. that doesn’t have to be the end of your activity in that race. In the video example i show, There is till over 4 minutes to go before the race is scheduled off. So many more opportunities may present themselves. I don’t let the loss of the initial trade effect anything that I do afterwards. I am not chasing the loss. I find another trade and execute it as a fresh trade. No baggage.

So enough waffle. take a look at the video and see what i did. If you fancy getting involved in my mentorship program. Have a look HERE. I have limited places for 23rd September’s event.

Backs To The Wall

I fondly remember watching the film “The Alamo” with my Dad when I was a mere boy. John Wayne as Davy Crockett and Richard Widmark as Jim Bowie. 2 great American heros. Backs to the wall defending a Fort called incidentally “The Alamo”. Overwhelmed by the evil Mexican forces the die defending their Fort. It reminds me of Michael Caine in Zulu. Same sort of thing. Anyway, enough of that bollocks, i doubt many of you are reading this ‘cos you know i am a nostalgic old twat………. But “The Alamo” is the horse I am trading in this video.

Many videos you may watch showing trading making money leave you wondering just WTF happened. The explanation vague if any at all. I always try to explain what I am doing, seems little point else. In this video it’s as simple as it gets. One runners is drifting and the others are all being supported. it really ain’t rocket science you know! Although sometimes it seems as hard as that. When you see something so obvious it seems rude not to have a few quid doesn’t it?

I’m looking forward to Sunday night/Monday as I have a new group of fresh faced young traders attending an induction into my Mentorship program. I only have 2 more inductions this year. If you fancy learning to trade, you can check out my mentorship Program HERE

As always I welcome any questions / comments – Cheers Steve

Ascot Hangover?

The week after Royal Ascot is always an anti climax. Those huge volumes and great racing are a hard act to follow. Many of my group benefitted from a strategy that we use to take advantage of some of the big gambles that dominated Royal Ascot. But the big high profile meetings with huge fields and favourites that have odds in double figures don’t lend themselves well to swing trading. Other methods are favoured.

This week I expected a tough week. My diary’s of past years post Ascot weeks have big red lines and comments like “Have this fucking week off next year”. I usually have my annual holiday on my Motorcycle and go somewhere with Mountains. I haven’t been in the best of health this year, so this is not possible.

This week actually has been quite steady. I have picked up a few real crackers, along with the usual bread and butter stuff like you see in the majority of my video’s. I have a couple of new videos with such trades for you today. I hope you enjoy.

I also wanted to add that I have only 2 more Mentorship inductions planned for this year. At this stage I don’t know when (if any) there will be more planned. I have spaces for 28th September and 23rd November. LINK HERE

As always I welcome your questions.