Been a while since I had a chance to blog. Really busy with mentoring, trading and …..living!
I picked up a comment from a guy called David who asked about sharing the way I set up Gruss. I have been sharing my settings with my workshop groups for ages, but though it may help a few of you if you wanted to set up as I do. When you have a new software package it can be pretty daunting find your way around it. This video just scratches the surface of what the software can do. But these are my basic ladder settings.
Not sure if anyone gives a flying fuck what I am up to at the moment and maybe what there isn’t too much material going up. In terms of trading videos, these are pretty time consuming and to be honest I think that if you watch the material I have up you can get the guest of what I do. I have no real desire to keep repeating the same old material over and over.
My Workshops have been a massive success and my network of guys who I Mentor within what we call “MG World” are going from strength to strength. At last count we had something like 20 full time traders in the group now. So it isn’t all about me. These guys all bring their own skills and experience to the group. All have attended a workshop with me, so we all trade the same way and this is incredibly helpful to the less experienced guys. I have 2 workshops left this year, 26th Sept and 21st November. I don’t have too many places left for September, so if you were thinking of booking I would advise you to do it sooner rather than later. Having many taking up the option to join the Mentor group too which is fantastic.
Been enjoying the dry weather and a chance to get out on my Motorcycle. My illness last year stopped me getting out too much, so by time this spring came I had cabin fever and was desperate to put some miles on. Been taking advantage of the quite Monday and Tuesday afternoons to get some serious miles in. By the time Wednesday comes I am chomping at the bit to trade again.
I believe that this is the key skill in trading. Knowing when to take a loss.
It’s the 1st thing I talk about when I get the my Ladder trading part of Mentorship Program, and it’s a constant theme all the way though. “Have an Exit and Control your losses.”
If you know where your exit is then everything else will take care of itself – Put simply. If you watch many of my videos, you will notice that often I will mention where my exit is. In this style of trading getting it right every time can be a challenge. I am happy to make or lose relatively small amounts knowing that there will always be a couple of decent wins during most days to get the corn in.
Learning to Lose is part of the game. You don’t have to like it, but you have to accept it. What you cannot accept is out of controlled losses. Trades that start to go wrong, you think they will come back, they don’t and before you know it you’re in a world of hurt. So then “Fuck it” mode takes over. Next thing is you take it in play. ‘it’s the fav right? It HAS to trade lower” Er – No it doesn’t. So you end up losing 50% of your bank and it sets the tone of your trading for the next few weeks. If you can recognise yourself here, then listening to what I am saying may be a good idea.
So lecturing about what I call “Cuntishness” is all well and good. Having someone telling you what you should be doing while they sit up high. But putting this into practice is very difficult. Sometimes you are trying to break habits that span many years. Try stopping masterbating and you will see what i mean.
The best I can offer is to trust your method. If you find yourself in this position often, then re look at your method. But once you can take a controlled loss and walk away, you will find it almost liberating. Another thing to note is once you end the trade with either a profit or loss. that doesn’t have to be the end of your activity in that race. In the video example i show, There is till over 4 minutes to go before the race is scheduled off. So many more opportunities may present themselves. I don’t let the loss of the initial trade effect anything that I do afterwards. I am not chasing the loss. I find another trade and execute it as a fresh trade. No baggage.
So enough waffle. take a look at the video and see what i did. If you fancy getting involved in my mentorship program. Have a look HERE. I have limited places for 23rd September’s event.
I fondly remember watching the film “The Alamo” with my Dad when I was a mere boy. John Wayne as Davy Crockett and Richard Widmark as Jim Bowie. 2 great American heros. Backs to the wall defending a Fort called incidentally “The Alamo”. Overwhelmed by the evil Mexican forces the die defending their Fort. It reminds me of Michael Caine in Zulu. Same sort of thing. Anyway, enough of that bollocks, i doubt many of you are reading this ‘cos you know i am a nostalgic old twat………. But “The Alamo” is the horse I am trading in this video.
Many videos you may watch showing trading making money leave you wondering just WTF happened. The explanation vague if any at all. I always try to explain what I am doing, seems little point else. In this video it’s as simple as it gets. One runners is drifting and the others are all being supported. it really ain’t rocket science you know! Although sometimes it seems as hard as that. When you see something so obvious it seems rude not to have a few quid doesn’t it?
I’m looking forward to Sunday night/Monday as I have a new group of fresh faced young traders attending an induction into my Mentorship program. I only have 2 more inductions this year. If you fancy learning to trade, you can check out my mentorship Program HERE
As always I welcome any questions / comments – Cheers Steve
The week after Royal Ascot is always an anti climax. Those huge volumes and great racing are a hard act to follow. Many of my group benefitted from a strategy that we use to take advantage of some of the big gambles that dominated Royal Ascot. But the big high profile meetings with huge fields and favourites that have odds in double figures don’t lend themselves well to swing trading. Other methods are favoured.
This week I expected a tough week. My diary’s of past years post Ascot weeks have big red lines and comments like “Have this fucking week off next year”. I usually have my annual holiday on my Motorcycle and go somewhere with Mountains. I haven’t been in the best of health this year, so this is not possible.
This week actually has been quite steady. I have picked up a few real crackers, along with the usual bread and butter stuff like you see in the majority of my video’s. I have a couple of new videos with such trades for you today. I hope you enjoy.
I also wanted to add that I have only 2 more Mentorship inductions planned for this year. At this stage I don’t know when (if any) there will be more planned. I have spaces for 28th September and 23rd November. LINK HERE
I get a constant stream of emails asking for new videos. So I thought I’d stick a couple up for you guys.
The 1st one shows that if you know why a price is changing it gives added confidence. There is no graph or chart that is better than interpreting what you can see with your own eyes. The 2nd was what I thought may be a tricky race, but it turned out nicely and went exactly to plan (don’t they all??? )
I am taking bookings now for the last 2 inductions into my Mentorship Program this year in September and November
The favourite called “Sixth Sense” was well supported initially and looked like it was going to be a big steamer. It didn’t quite turn out that way.
One of my Skype Community mentioned in our room that Mark Johnson’s horses were out of form. (Cheers for that reminder Matt – btw Matt is a Pro Tennis trader who is also a very talented all rounder Trader. If you want to learn how to trade Tennis he is THE MAN). Having a little bit of extra information that may explain why something is happening in the market can be valuable. For example, if Johnson had had 3 winners that afternoon, that may also have an influence on the way the market behaves. When the numbers on the ladders are whizzing up and down with seemingly no pattern. Anything that may give you an idea why something is happening is Gold. I am not saying you need this info to trade, but as the saying goes…….”every little helps”.
The main thing to take away from this trade I think, is that I always trade the whole market. By that I mean I take into account EVERY runner. Not just the one I am trading. This isn’t entirely straightforward as there are times when I am not in the best position
Here’s the video. I welcome your questions and comments as always.
I should say that there are limited places available for my July Induction to my Mentorship Program. Only 3 more dates this year. LINK
Something you will very rarely see me do is trade more than 1 runner at a time in a race. My thinking is if you think you know which way it may go why not increase you stake on 1 horse? Sometimes though you can take advantage of more than 1 move and this is such an example. Once you watch this video you may understand why i do not trade more than 1 at a time. Basically because I am not very good at it! But it is what it is.
The front 2 in the market start off at a similar price. Although there are a couple of others that are able influence the market these are all drifting. As always my priority is to find an exit position . If the trade is not going to plan, I need to find a place that will limit my loss and protect my bank. As the other runners in the field at this point do not seem to be moving one way of the other I treat this race as a 2 horse book, My thinking is one will move in and 1 will move out.
My initial position is to place a lay bet ay 3.35 on Lacan. The key to this trade is ifWannabe breaks through the end of it’s range and the crossover. The way the market overall was shaping gave me some confidence that if either of the front 2 (if any) were going to break through the crossover it would be Wannabe.If it did I expected 2 things to happen. Firstly it would quickly move down and secondly that as a consequence of this Lacan would have to drift.
1:45 – Wannabe at last breaks through and i decide to help myself to a few quid. My lay bet on Lacan hadn’t been taken, but the breakout of Wannabe gave me added confidence that it would drift some more. So I move my position up to 3.5 and adjust my potential exit to 3.3/3.35. I take initial positions. You can always add to your position, but going in hard means it’s more painful when it goes wrong. My priory is not to make a huge total, it is not to lose. A small loss is acceptable and happens sometimes. But if it’s under control I don’t worry about it at all. With this style of trading the old saying ‘You have to kiss a lot of frogs to find a Prince” rings true.
Not doing a lot of talking during this, that’s because I am typing and I can’t do both! lol I am just giving some advice in my Mentees Skype room as to this race and potential scenarios.
4:35-4:40 – After it’s brush with the cross over at 4, Lacan looks to be peaking. I decide to take the profit and concentrate on Wannabe – This would have been a better idea from the start.
Pretty soon after I run out of time and close the trade for a combined profit of £75.
Update on Mentorship Program
We are in full swing now and my new group of guys are settling in very well. I can’t tell you how proud I feel when someone tells me they have just have their best ever day or week. Better that that even is the constant results that are being achieved. I am not saying this. They are!
There are limited places left for 28th July, my September date invitations will be sent out shortly before I release it publicly. I have not got any more dates planned after September at this time.
If you are interested all the information is HERE and my Testimonials are HERE
It is often the case that “public horses” that are heavily traded. When I say “public horses” i am talking about Pricewise or Hugh Taylors’ selections. Sometimes they steam right in, but mostly the move in odds happens very quickly after they are public. There is then a massive amount of traded volume on them up to the on course live shows, but often they do not go too far.
When the live show kicks in it is quite often that although the off course bookmakers have taken their share of bets on these horses, the on course bookmakers haven’t. So quite often are keen to lay them as the “value” price that tipsters recommended the bets at are far away from the actual price now. The market becomes unbalanced. This video shows such a horse Ashpan Sam, which was a Pricewise extra selection.
It was facing concerted pressure form the favourite Intrinsic. My entry point was solid, but took a while for it to tip into profit. I had a firm exit position planned in case the trade went too far against me. There is a fine line between bottle and stupidity in many cases. I’d like to think this was bottle, and faith in my opening position being correct, rather than stupidity, although others will surely disagree.
Eventually the trade went into a positive trade, at one point it looked really good. But as often happens, it didn’t quite reach it’s potential due to me being over cautious and then over ambitious. I though this was an interesting trade, which is why I posted it.
My initial assessment showed me that this was essentially a 2 horse market, not a lot of activity was happening outside the front 2 in the market. This can be a dangerous game you are relying on only horse to apply pressure (or not depending if you back or lay). When I initially enter the market, my thinking is that Intrinsic looks strong against the Pricewise runner. They are both trading at the bottom of their ranges, but the biggest consideration was that Alspath Sam was struggling to break through the cross over at 4. As a “gamble” I would have expected it to easily break through this already if it was going to continue to on it’s way. I thought the fact that it hadn’t was significant. My plan then was to try to get a Lay matched under this crossover as to reduce my potential loss. Over the crossover I am gaining twice as much as I am potentially losing, so it’s an efficient place to be. It’s clear looking at the range it has traded in and the amount matched that this isn’t going to far outside of this range. The other thing to note is this is a slack book. There is plenty of space for the prices to move a few ticks within the book without having an effect on other odds.
I set my exit point to ensure I don’t lose to much if it does break through. If it had of broken through past my exit position at 3.85 there is no telling where it would end up. Sitting and hoping it would come back was not on the agenda at all. Once I got a couple of Back trades though and nicked a couple of ticks, it moved up my scratch position below my exit position, meaning a no loss trade.
Jut to add that there are limited places available for the remaining 2 Courses that will plug you into the Mentorship Program. Although I haven’t even released the date yet for the last course it is close to being over subscribed. If you are interested please make sure you book soon.
There is an old saying used by shopkeepers that goes something like “You’re profit is determined at the price you buy in your stock”. As you all know, I love a saying
So what has this got to do with trading on Betfair? Well more than you would imagine. Something that is debated at length and many seems obsessed with when looking for an entry point is ‘which way is the market going to go”. This is easy to get swept up with. After all if you can predict the direction of a odds move if it pretty much a licence to print money. But it isn’t that easy as many of you know. As odds move they take many twists and turns along they way, it’s easy to bottle it and be over cautious or be too “hung ho” by which time the old “well I might as week wait to see if it comes back now as I am up to my neck in shit here” thoughts start to creep in.
There are many signals that show a price may be about to move, depending on the volume and odds coupled with fill rate, these are sometimes more subtle that others. But there are simpler ways of making money than the almost impossible “which way will it go” game. Which brings me back to my shopkeeping adage.
When the Greengrocer is knocking out his bananas at less than half price as they reach the end of their shelf life do you suppose he is making a loss? Unlikely, He was smart when he bought them, he knew when he ordered that extra 6 boxes he was taking some risk, but the weather has been nice, and when that happens he usually sells more. Shame the weather changed mid week ! But they were a great price and he got a good discount for the extra volume he bought. He factored in that he may be stuck with some if the weather turned, that at some point he may have to discount some stock.. But the discount he got when he bought them will offset this potential risk. If he doesn’t sell the extra boxes, he will be able to sell them at just below cost price for sure, but he may sell them all at full price and make a handsome profit. Realistically he will be some where in between.
So why can’t we do the same? When we open a position, should we not factor in what happens if we get stuck? i.e The odds turn against us. But if we enter at a price that has an exit point “just below cost price” – I am not talking purely about a tight stop loss position, I am taking about a position where something needs to force the odds somewhere it doesn’t naturally want to go. Then it’s completely likely if we judge our position well then we can make some if not considerable profit if the odds move in our favour.
This is what this video is about. Not a banana in sight.
My opening position is based on 2 factors. 1) I have a good exit plan. There is a step in volume just below at 3.75 – This isn’t rock solid, but it’s a long way from the start of race. I judged it enough though. 2) There was pressure on it from the favourite.
You may be asking “Why didn’t you just back the favourite”? – Well there are a couple of reasons. Firstly I have the possibility of my lay bet going over the cross over in odds at 4. This will have the effect of doubling my profit per tick for no extra risk. So it is basically leveraging your investment. The other factor is, that if I am backing a runner, in a market like this I am relying on no other runner being supported. By Laying Satanic Beat, I have a chance of back up if the odds move on Gabriel The Great reversing. As proves the case. Although there are lots of mistakes in this trade. The point of me showing you it is hopefully make my point. If you entry potion is sound, there is room for some error. This wasn’t too difficult to spot., but it had control and the exits well covered. The added safety of enhanced profit for no extra risk too. I didn’t make the best of it towards the end, but the methodology is basically sound.