Over the time I have been writing my blog, you may know that I struggle to maintain it as often as i should . I have the Twitter account @itsamugsgame, but 142 characters is sometimes a waste of time. Sometimes i want to make a small comment, or see something that i want to reference. The blog is a little to “serious’ for that. So I have decided to make more use of Facebook. It seems that this might be the way to go for me.
I will still be using the blog, and sometimes what I post on Facebook will be replicated on here and visa versa. i want to reach as many people as possible, I think that Facebook is much more mobile friendly, and as we all know mobile communication is the future (and present on doubt).
So if you are interested in what i have to say (oh dear oh dear) Please Like my Facebook page and you will be able to hear a bit more from me.
I just wanted to mention that I am going to be making a huge change to my Mentorship program in 2016.
As it stands I have 2 remaining inductions into the program on 28th September and 23rd November. There are limited places left for these dates. MG World has been very successful in terms of what I set out to achieve. Once you have attended the induction you have the option to stay in “MG World” and have continued Mentoring. Many have taken up this option. In truth there has to be a limit to that support. The limit I am comfortable has been reached now.
Moving forward in 2016 I will be offering a different product. This will be a day long workshop for Racing Traders. Access to my Skype rooms will not be included unless there are spaces available. Dates/Exact content and Pricing will be announced closer later in the year.
if you wish to be included in the last places of my Mentorship program LINK HERE
There are few places available so please hurry. Get in touch at firstname.lastname@example.org
I have 2 videos for you in this post that I pulled out from the last couple of weeks trading.
This video is from the 4:25 Leicester on 10th April. It was a pretty volatile market and there was one time during the trade when it looked gruesome. I was just about to take a red when it shot back out again kept going.
I am never afraid to take a loss if things are not going to plan. In this case I was confident to a point that I had it right. But as we all know there has to be a time when your belief impacts on common sense.
This 2nd one needs no explanation, other than to say I didn’t make the best of it in hindsight. Hindsight is a beautiful thing!
If you read my last post you will know I have been poorly. That hasn’t changed, but life has to go on.
I was thinking about the blog and how I started it and what it turned into. I figured that something is better than nothing. What I aimed to do was give a detailed explanation of what my thinking was as I was in the trade. For the foreseeable future I am not going to do this. It is incredible time consuming. What I am going to do is go back to posting my videos. Minimal explanation, but you should be able to pick up what is going on with my narration in the video.
Just so you know. Every video I make is unedited. I don’t over dub. I just say what I see. I make mistakes like everyone. In fact I can pull apart every single trade i have ever done and make improvements to it.
What this will mean is many more videos, which I guess is what people like. Just to say the guys in my Mentorship Group had access to this video while the race was still running. This is a great aid to compare how they traded it compared to me.
I am happy to answer your questions and welcome your comments.
I just wanted to very quickly let you know why no blog posts…….
You know that over the years i blog spasmodically. There are periods when i am prolific, and other times where there are big gaps between posts. I know that if you read my material there is a body of work that many of you relate to. Blogging is time consuming and if I don’t have anything to say, then I tend not to post just to generate interest in myself and my “products”.
So where have i been?
Since Christmas I developed a nasty cough, you may hear it on the odd video. This hasn’t gone and I have became a bit poorly. I seem to be close to some effective treatment now so i am hoping to be on the mend very soon.
I hope to be back writing and making some videos soon. I appreciate all my readers, especially the ones who take the time to message me. If you have and i haven’t replied to you. Please except my sincerest apologies.
Old General Tufto is a regular on the All Weather tracks. This was his 150th(?) race. So the old bugger knows the game. This by the way has nothing to do with how I trade him. That is irrelevant. But if you are like me, sit and watch pretty much every race, every day. You cannot but get drawn into the drama and romance of Racing. Although back on the freezing cold late January afternoon at Southwell, there was nothing to dramatic or romantic!
This was a competitive 1m Handicap. These runners race against each other week in week out and pretty much take it in turns to win. In the Generals last race he started favourite and was quite short considering the type of race. He downed tools and ran a stinker. I am concentrating on the first 3 in the market here to find a trade. But I am keeping a close eye for something to be backed in from the outsiders.
You will notice when the video starts I am mid trade and have a nice little green book. I don’t really want to comment too much on this trade. Mainly because I can’t remember it! What is important to note is we are 10 minutes from the start of the race. It is very rare you see me involved this far out. But due to the bad weather only Southwell and Wetherby survived. The race times were altered to accommodate an even gap. When this happens (only 1 or 2 meetings) the money arrives in the market differently. The best way I can try to explain it is that a certain amount will be matched prior to the off. Lets say for arguments sake £900,000. (ok I cheated and looked) When the video starts there is almost £266k matched. That means that £635k will be matched in this 10 minute timeframe. There is no other race in play. If I break this down…..
10-9mins – 32k
9-8 mins – 31k
8-7 mins – 26k
7-6 mins – 37k
6-5 mins – 56k
5-4 mins 78k
4-3 mins – 59k
3-2 mins 90k
2-1 mins 80k
1-0 mins 96k
0 – minus 38 seconds 45k
What is interesting about these numbers is how consistent the increase in volumes are. Of course this increases right before the off. But the gradual and relatively smooth increase in volume is very different to when you have a busy day with only 3 minutes between when a race ends and the next starts. This is very much something that needs to be taken into account. There is no way I would dream of getting involved with this race this far out while another race was in play. The previous race had actually finished 4 minutes before the start of this video.
I had seen an opportunity to make a few quid on Falcons Reign, that trade was coming to an end and I closed it for a profit of £15. If you look at the Last Priced matched “Candlesticks” to the left of the traded Volume Column, you will see that after moving in from 3.65 into as low as 3.25 the direction has now shifted. This may be temporary, (it was as it happens), but there was a change in opposition to this runner with pressure from different runners. I was happy to take a small profit here. There is plenty of time to go and a complete reassessment of the market was called for.
So at 1:46 into the video I open a Lay Trade for £200 on General Tufto. My reasons were that this was the original favourite, there had been plenty of time for it to be supported if that was going to happen. There was opposition to it in the market. The trainers very negative comments on TV were just the trigger that may make it drift even more. The cross over point at 6 is looming and I have my eye on some enhanced profit once it reaches 6. I need to say again. We still have 7 minutes to go here.
One of the things you will know I do is what I call “Progressive Staking”. I never go in with my full stake from the start. My aim is to “feel” my way into the market, then as my position improves I add to my stake, constantly reassessing my position. If it improves, I add more if I see the trend continuing. If I am worried things are starting to turn, then I take some out. In this case after my initial £200 which does not completely get matched at the 5.6 I requested. I leave the £61.56 in the queue and add to the trade with another £200 lay at 5.8 before moving the rest of the unmatched £61 to 5.8 too. My total stake is now £400 and my liability £1876.89 – (I have £15 green remember).
I always have an exit plan. In this case my exit would be at 5.4 for a loss of £24.51 on GT and an overall negative position of around £9. But if you keep your eye on the overall position indicator (just to the right of the countdown clock) you will see at no point does it go into a red negative book position.
As my position improves and goes towards 7 I decide that maybe I should ensure I walk away with a decent profit for my efforts here. The market is becoming a little static. I take back £100 by placing a back bet at 6.8 of £100. This is matched. The shortly afterwards another £150 at 7. I have only £150 of this trade left in the market now.
You will know if you follow my blog that I am a “greedy bastard” and cannot resist trying to scalp the odd tick as the market draws to a close. Inevitably it goes tits up, but I manage to get a scratch trade on it. My reason was I thought if Falcons reign broke the 3 if would have to drift a couple more ticks. I manage to close for £71 profit on GT for an overall Green book of £87.32
One of the many acronyms I use when I am talking to my Mentorship groups is W.G.S.T.F or What’s Gonna Stop The Favourite?. This video is a classic example of just that.
This is a nasty looking 4 runner race on the All Weather at Lingfield or a ‘horrible Wednesday afternoon. The favourite is Deinonychus. (I Googled this name as I thought it interesting. It is a Dinosaur or a Dutch Doom Metal Band) I like the 2nd one
My mantra is as I have already said W.G.S.T.F? This is pretty much the first thing I look at when assessing any race. If there is tangible opposition to it, then it may drift. If there isn’t then it won’t. That bit isn’t exactly rocket science is it? So why does that favourite want to come in? In every market almost without exception sees most of the money traded on the favourite. The shorter the price the more acute this is. Everyone wants to back a winner. Now in Betfair land, this is clouded by traders who crave liquidity to work with. It seems most (but by no means all) opportunities revolve around the favourite in one way or another. There are lots of Bettors who just want to go in the pub and tell their mates they backed the winner in the 1:50 at Lingers.
This may well be a flawed argument, but it’s a good starting point and has served me well for many years!
So opposition. If it’s not going to move in in price, then it’s needs something to stop it. In this race there are 3 other runners. The outsider is the only one remotely putting any pressure on the favourite. It’s influence at 8.6 is not as great as if it was 3.6. This is something to bear in mind. Now before I go steaming into this I need to make sure that the price isn’t going to bounce and I have some exit plan. You hear me talk about Cross Over points often. For me there are one of the most influential aspects of a trade. They are often at the bottom of a range by no coincidence either. They can be hard to breach, so if they are it’s a strong signal.
I wait for this to breach the crossover before I enter my trade. You will see I am quite aggressive with this trade. That’s because my confidence was high that I had it right. My exit? The exit is the most important part of the trade. You always need an escape route if something goes wrong. In this case it would have been just over the crossover at 2.02. After my initial £500 stake, you will see that I am making around £2.50 a tick (greened up), but over 2 I am losing around £5 stick. That’s why the crossover is so significant. My reward is half what I am risking (per tick). So backing just beneath a cross over is not a good idea unless you think you are standing on 10 feet of concrete.
The rest is just faffing about as it goes into freefall. Nothing clever at all about it. I called it right and made a few quid.
I just want to mention that my first induction into my Mentorship Program takes place on 26th January. I have just 4 places available. If you are interested the link is HERE
Thanks for watching, as always I welcome your questions and comments.
Whenever I carry out an induction one of my sections is about Security. This is something that you should take very seriously indeed.
If you have a Betfair account you should without question enable 2 step authentication. Betfair explain it really well with this video. I strongly recommend this.
What has bought this into focus for me was a very unfortunate incident that happened last week. While in bed we were broken into. The low life thieving bastards took my whole trading set up (laptop/ iMac) plus iPads. Someone getting into your house while your sleeping and walking away with a very heavy iMac isn’t something you expect. As I have always worried about a hard drive corruption I had a Time Machine attached to the iMac. This is basically an external hard drive that backs up everything on the machine several times a day. To recover anything at all, you simply go back into it and choose what you want to restore. The thieving C***s unplugged this and left it. I am grateful for that! This sorry affair has not only left me with a rage and out of pocket. It has given me food for thought about future security and how important my digital life is.
I have put together some extra security measures. Both online and hardware wise to protect me if this ever happens again. I want to share this with you.
I expect we all have many accounts. These may be betting or otherwise. eBay, Amazon, etc and I suspect some of you may use the form fill features available that auto fill these fields in. Big mistake. It’s like giving them the keys to your car.
What about those of you who use 1 password for everything? I am very happy to say I don’t. Maybe have a look at that too?
What about when you go to bed? CarKeys and any small tech items such as Laptops and iPads are very easy to take with you.
Is the downstairs of your house as secure as you would like? Do you have window locks? An alarm that can be part set to go off if any doors or windows are breached.
Have you completely closed all of the downstairs windows?
Make it hard for them. I no have a Kensington iMac lock. A heavy duty cable that secures the iMac to something solid. Mine is around the table frame and radiator. Make no mistake if they want it they will take it. But they will have to make some noise and it will slow them down.
Make sure you have back ups of your important work and photos etc. Use an external hard drive or a Time Machine if you have a Mac. This saved my arse really. My new Mac is back to exactly how it was the day they took the old on. I have not lost any of my favourite er pictures Maybe get in the habit of taking the external drive out if you are leaving the PC/Mac and hiding it?
All of this stuff is so easy to do. we all think it cannot happen to us, and I sincerely hope it doesn’t. But better safe than sorry. I am really happy for any suggestions that I have overlooked to be added here.
Trading on the exchanges carries risk. When I do my induction classes to my Mentees I tell them that having money in the market is like leaving your wallet on the bar in a pub unattended. There are plenty of robbing bastards out to relieve you of your hard earned. Betfair kindly provide the platform for us to trade on. They are not the only platform contrary to what they believe. We in turn pay for this service through commission and Premium Charge. I will now refer to us as “customers”. They provide the service and we pay for it. Similar to if you hire a film on Netflix. You pay and then you download it. If you pay and they knob you off, then you complain and they will refund your money. Makes good business sense not to piss off your customers all the time I guess.
Anyway enough of that nonsense. I have a video and a cracking trade. I edited the end of the video as I swore quite a lot and I know you lot are sensitive.
I was looking for a way in on this trade. There was a bit of a gamble going on Vikehal. It looked like I had missed it and it had stalled. However, the way they were lining up showed he looked like getting a soft easy lead. I took advantage of this and managed to build up a nice position over over £100 green book before the off. My intention was to capitalise on this easy lead in play, as I knew I could get an easy 6 or 7 ticks before a fence was jumped such was his lead. I could enhance my £106.
As you will have seen in the video this wasn’t possible as Betfair failed to put the race in play. I queried this with them vis my twitter account to their help desk .
I said ” 3:00 Ling not turned in play. My £318 liability. Can I have it back please? I have it on video – would you like to see it? “
They replied; “We had a technical error which prevented in play betting. Bet placed before the race would be settled normally”
My response was: ” Hiding behind T&C’s is not acceptable when people are losing large sums of money”
The reply “We are looking to resolve this shortly, any SP bets will be settled manually”
And then “This is unfortunate, but the market did not go in play, we can only settle those taken before the race”.
Now if you take the £106 green book I had and add it to the £318 I lost. That is over £400. I realise there has to be rules. But how can you form strategies to try and profit when this sort of thing happens? Leaves a bad taste in my mouth.