I’d like to point out that the “B2L” trades that I talk about are NOT in play b2L’s that have become so popular now. These are trades form the Morning that I carry though to the afternoon.
I have decided to put together quite a comprehensive “How to guide” to help anyone who wants to get involved in my Back2Lay or Lay2Back trades. I’ll try to explain in the most simple terms I can. Forgive me if I am going over old ground for some of you, but I feel it’s very important judging from the questions I am getting. I hope this helps. I have decided to restructure my Back2Lay trades slightly. Before I started sharing them there we no restrictions such as price and the amount of liquidity in the market. I have come to realise since I started sharing I need to consider how many can get their bets matched and a more structured staking plan to help you guys get the best from the trades. Putting the same amount on a horse priced 2 and one priced 10 is unrealistic and frankly stupid. I report the bets to level stakes as this is the easiest way. I need to make some changes to get better accuracy and transparency. The integrity of my blog is very important to me. I need my readers to believe me when I say something, otherwise i might as well not bother. With this in mind I made some changes and have set out some guidelines for you to help you achieve maximum profit for minimum risk. The first change I am going to make is there will be no more selections for B2L under 3.5 or over 8.6, unless in exceptional circumstances. In many races where there is a short priced runner there is a possible L2B I can choose to advise instead. There will be fewer selections but the overall profit should improve. Constant tweaking keeps you ahead of the game. Standing still is not an option in this business.
The most important aspects of these trades are:
Staking – How much do I put on?
Entry Position – Get your stake matched.
Stop Loss – What do I do when things go wrong?
Exit Position – Take your profit or loss.
Staking – B2L
I am going to base all my staking and stop loss advice on a £1000 bank. I realise that most of you will be working on banks much lower than this. Here is a table to help work out stake sizes and stop loss targets. The stake is 10% of your bank, which means if the stop loss is correctly applied the maximum risk to your bank on each trade is 2%. With my strike rate in the long term (over 5 years on this type of trade) at over 70% there is very little risk involved. At the end of the day you can stake whatever you like, but protecting your bank is the key to having a long term relationship with withdrawing money from your Betfair account and not putting it in.
Entry Position – B2L
There is an old saying you may have heard that businessmen use. It goes something like “You make all your profit at the price you buy your goods at. Not the price you sell them for”. That rings true here too. If I advise a horse at 7.2 it means I think that’s an achievable price. If you read the advice 10 minutes later and it’s 6.6 walk away. If it’s 7 or 6.8 and the WOM on the LAY side is substantial and there is little on the BACK side it’s probably safe to take a tick or 2 lower. NO MORE. Chasing down the price will end in a loss I promise. You will find on most occasions if you stick your order in it gets matched after a few minutes. Remember if there are several readers all trying to get on at the same time you will be fighting amongst yourselves. Once everyone has been matched the price will bounce back and you all lose.
Stop Loss – B2L
It is inevitable that trades will go wrong. This isn’t an exact science, and things do go against us. To protect our bank we need a mechanism in place to stop things out of control. This is called a stop loss. There are software packages that you can set an automated stop loss with, and on the face of it that sounds great. However over the years I have tried to use this on many occasions. Stick the bets on early, set the SL and go fishing. Come back just in time to see every bet has had the SL triggered. There are gaps in many markets in the time leading up to the last 5 minutes of a race. Especially on a Monday afternoon in January at Wolverhampton. (Not that I go fishing in January 🙂 ) So try it if you like, but that’s my experience of it. I just try to keep an eye on my bets through out the day, it’s not often that too much happens quickly. I find you win some and lose some.
The stop loss itself should be 20% of your stake. I have increased this from 15% to give a little more flexibility. What I would say is if the horse is drifting and has been since the trade was matched it’s ok to cut your losses before the stop loss is reached. If you noticed your tap was leaking you would probably fix it before it flooded your kitchen. If it reached the 20% it’s unlikely to come back.
Exit position B2L
This is the tough one. We have a successful trade, when and how do we close it? I really wish I could give you a definitive answer. This week I have tweeted some of my exits and received many tweets back saying they did better. This comes down to experience and you will get better the more you practice. It’s rare I exit before the live show as this is when the action happens. If you run software such as Bet Angel, the exit is easy as 1 click. If you need help to do it manually please have a look at my How to Place a Back2Lay Trade page, it gives detailed instruction how to open and close a trade manually. It is important you do not let the trade go in play and then try to exit it. This is one of the routes to the poor house.
Although I have not up to now advised many of my Lay2Back trades they are very successful, but I think a little harder to manage effectively. Most of the principles apply to the L2B the same as the B2L. The main difference is obviously you execute the LAY part of the bet first. All of the L2B trades will be under 3, many at odds on.
Staking – L2B
The staking for L2B bet is slightly different. In the L2B we LAY to a liability. I use 20% of my bank with a stop loss of 10% of my liability. If your using a £1000 bank, your stake will be to a liability of £200 and your maximum loss if you exit if the stop loss price has been triggered will be £20 or 2% of your bank. Just a word on banks. There is no problem using 1 bank between the 2 types of bet. I quite often use all of my bank. It’s important to remember that your risk is not the same as your stake. You will never lose your whole stake unless you do not close the trade when the stop loss is reached or you let the bet go in play and do not trade out. The table below is to help with bank size and liability.
Now we know how much we are going to use we can execute the trade. It’s easy enough to use the Betfair interface to do this as they have a nice liability calculation function. The screenshots will help I think.
Step 1: Click on “Your Liability”
Step 2: Select the “your liability” radio button
Step 3: Insert the amount of liability you want to accept.
This is the result once you click “OK”. At this point I would advise you make sure the “Confirm all bets before placing” box is ticked. Until you are familiar with the process.
You will see that the stake required to reach the liability of £200 has been inserted into the box (£224.71). Now it’s just a case of hitting the Place bets button. You may not get matched immediately, but the same rules about chasing apply to this as to the B2L bet.
The stop loss is the same as for the B2L trade, Our maximum loss should not be more than 2% of our bank. The beauty of a L2B bet is not many runners will steam by the amount it takes to trigger our SL, but if we catch a drift it can be nice earner. This is especially true when the new flat season starts and the young horses are having their 1st runs. Bad behaviour pre race can be the trigger for some massive drifts.
Wether you are in profit or not closing the trade is the same using the Betfair interface. I strongly advise that once you have made a few quid with these trades an investment in some 1 click software is well worth while. These calculations are a pain!
This will work if you have a profit of a loss. The “what if” figure will be the same next to each runner if you have followed the calculation instructions correctly. Don’t panic if the price moves against you, but bear in mind the closer to the start the more quickly prices may move.
I hope this adds to your understanding of what we are aiming to acheiev. If you have any questions, as always I am happy to help