World Cup Trading – Tournament Winner

Like many of you we are up to our necks in World Cup fever.  So far we have found a few average trades some not so good and a cracker from one of my guys (completely without my help and I take no credit whatsoever) is in Barbados now on the back of his Brazil trade.

Every trade I attempt has to meet a set of criteria, whether that’s in a horse race or Football match. I need an escape route if it goes wrong and a reason to get involved. If these criteria I met I look for the right entry point. I like many of you were stunned by the brilliant performance from Holland against Spain. Their price in Tournament odds have quite rightly tumbled. Meanwhile Spain have gone from 7.2 to 13.5. There are two reasons for this. My exit is a bit shaky. But the reasons are compelling in my mind.

1) They were piss poor. Their heads dropped and they were out played everywhere on the pitch. The talk in the media, and this started pre Tournament was they were in decline and almost in transition.

2) They will more than likely have to play Brazil in the first knockout stages.

I advised to my group that we lay Brazil in Tournament odds at 3.95/4 after the first match. (4.2 now) They were unconvincing and the score greatly flattered them in my opinion. The home advantage my not be as good as it sounds. The side show and distractions along with massive expectation may weigh heavy. Neymar although obviously an incredible player is lightweight. I think he may be carrying a knock. he has a yellow card too. (We layed him at 4 in Golden Boot market, he is 5.2 now). Chelsea just did the best bit of transfer business since Newcastle robbed Liverpool of £50M for Andy Carrol when they off loaded David Luis for £38M to PSG. Their Goalkeeper struggled in the Premier League and was a contributing factor to QPR going down last season I’m sure. I may be way off the mark here. After all markets with upwards of £18M matched are not usually too far out.

So back to Spain. So they had a shocker. But that will have hurt. They were humiliated. They have some brilliant players in their team, they do not become average overnight. So at 13.5 I am liking that price. If you were offered that last week you would have mortgaged your house to get on. They will still qualify, and worst case play Brazil. I’m pretty sure qualification alone will see them move in a point or 2. If they dodge Brazil they will half in price. This massive hike in price is an over reaction in my book. I expect Brazil are just as worried about this game as Spain are.

My plan is to back them to win the Tournament at 13.5. The fact that Pinnacle go 10.15 is a clue here in itself. I will reduce some of my liability if I get a couple of ticks. If they beat Brazil ( I have them no bigger than 2/1 at worst)  then they will be favourites.

It is a bit of a long shot, but the reasoning is sound although you could argue about this all night in the pub. There is a substantial downside as their is no real escape route. The 2 games before Brazil will give a better idea of where we are. No one should forget what happened to France just 4 years after they won the WC in 1998. I am confident I can reduce enough of my liability before the Brazil match to reduce the downside to acceptable levels and give me a huge upside.


Didn’t see that coming. In hindsight perhaps I should have. Chile were outstanding, I still believe the reasoning behind the trade were sound. but this is one of the reasons I stick to trading mostly. I am not a gambler, I hate losing and trust me this hurts. My apologies if you followed me in here.

8 thoughts on “World Cup Trading – Tournament Winner

  1. Andrew Banthorpe

    Hiya Steve

    Hope you are well. Interesting to read your thought process and to note that the same principles apply to everything you do. ie Exit point and entry point and must admit just getting these in my head has transformed my trading. Can be hard sometimes watching a price drift that I thought would drift but I didn’t get involved because I couldn’t see an exit point but do think it has reduced my losses. Thanks again for all the hard work you put into these blogs and videos. Have a good week Andrew

  2. Gavin

    Great tips and glad I looked out for your latest blog post. I was in the same thinking about brazil. Got on the Ladbrokes OFFFER of 20-1 on neymar top goalscorer. I was contemplating laying it off and now i have done. With Holland doing so well and the messi factor. Your point about neymar on a yellow. I see Argentina winning tonight and Brazil might move a few ticks if they perform.

    Thanks Gavin

    1. MG Post author

      Hi Gavin, That’s exactly my thinking. I advised my guys to lay Brazil in Tournament odds after the first game with a view to trading out after the first round of games. Them possibly playing Spain in the next round pushed them out 2 ticks. With all the top teams to play, especially Argentina who have an easy group. If they beat the 2nd best team tonight (Bosnia) convincingly the then they will drift a little more. We then have Germany to put a little more pressure on. I am hoping they may hit 4.6. Neymar was 6 last time I looked. We will trade out before Brazil play again no doubt. thanks for your comment Gavin. Cheers MG

  3. pokerhead

    hi steve just a quick question on movement on odds in world cup when group stages are completed will all remaining teams price drop or will it only be the top teams that will do so. sorry about your spainish trade they were shocking cheers alan

    1. MG Post author

      Hi Alan -When the group stages are over the book percentage vacated by the eliminated teams will be taken up by the remaining teams. This is happening as we go, for example Spain have been eliminated and their share has been distributed. But this would have been happening during last nights match as the odds moved around in play.What is important to understand is although before kick off Spain occupied around 8 percent of the book. Not very team drops by 8%. For example Iran wouldn’t change. But the teams that potentially have to play Spain or the other qualify team may take more or even less.Brazil came in a few ticks as the market views a potential match against Chile as easier than Spain. After last night I am not so sure it is. Hope this helps Alan – Cheers Steve

  4. Danny

    I’ve had a horror show in the winners market. My trades before the tournament started were Spain, Italy and Portugal. Thought they all had their most difficult group game first so if they lost they wouldn’t move much anyway but if they won they’d steam. Cue Portugal and Spain getting hammered and doubling in price and Italy shortening from 30 into 19. Left it to run into second round of games as although I had two going against me Italy were pulling in the right direction and had Costa Rica to play next. The rest is history, out go Spain for a full stake loss and Italy back trading where they started. Not even letting it run into Portugals next game as I got to the point of a 50% red book and saw very little upside from here so redded up. In summary, total disaster but luckily more than covered from my individual match trades. Going to be treading carefully from now on, a lot of these teams came in to the tournament unexposed and no amount of research could have prepared people for what we’ve seen, despite some of the after timing cretins on twitter.


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