Like many of you we are up to our necks in World Cup fever. So far we have found a few average trades some not so good and a cracker from one of my guys (completely without my help and I take no credit whatsoever) is in Barbados now on the back of his Brazil trade.
Every trade I attempt has to meet a set of criteria, whether that’s in a horse race or Football match. I need an escape route if it goes wrong and a reason to get involved. If these criteria I met I look for the right entry point. I like many of you were stunned by the brilliant performance from Holland against Spain. Their price in Tournament odds have quite rightly tumbled. Meanwhile Spain have gone from 7.2 to 13.5. There are two reasons for this. My exit is a bit shaky. But the reasons are compelling in my mind.
1) They were piss poor. Their heads dropped and they were out played everywhere on the pitch. The talk in the media, and this started pre Tournament was they were in decline and almost in transition.
2) They will more than likely have to play Brazil in the first knockout stages.
I advised to my group that we lay Brazil in Tournament odds at 3.95/4 after the first match. (4.2 now) They were unconvincing and the score greatly flattered them in my opinion. The home advantage my not be as good as it sounds. The side show and distractions along with massive expectation may weigh heavy. Neymar although obviously an incredible player is lightweight. I think he may be carrying a knock. he has a yellow card too. (We layed him at 4 in Golden Boot market, he is 5.2 now). Chelsea just did the best bit of transfer business since Newcastle robbed Liverpool of £50M for Andy Carrol when they off loaded David Luis for £38M to PSG. Their Goalkeeper struggled in the Premier League and was a contributing factor to QPR going down last season I’m sure. I may be way off the mark here. After all markets with upwards of £18M matched are not usually too far out.
So back to Spain. So they had a shocker. But that will have hurt. They were humiliated. They have some brilliant players in their team, they do not become average overnight. So at 13.5 I am liking that price. If you were offered that last week you would have mortgaged your house to get on. They will still qualify, and worst case play Brazil. I’m pretty sure qualification alone will see them move in a point or 2. If they dodge Brazil they will half in price. This massive hike in price is an over reaction in my book. I expect Brazil are just as worried about this game as Spain are.
My plan is to back them to win the Tournament at 13.5. The fact that Pinnacle go 10.15 is a clue here in itself. I will reduce some of my liability if I get a couple of ticks. If they beat Brazil ( I have them no bigger than 2/1 at worst) then they will be favourites.
It is a bit of a long shot, but the reasoning is sound although you could argue about this all night in the pub. There is a substantial downside as their is no real escape route. The 2 games before Brazil will give a better idea of where we are. No one should forget what happened to France just 4 years after they won the WC in 1998. I am confident I can reduce enough of my liability before the Brazil match to reduce the downside to acceptable levels and give me a huge upside.
Didn’t see that coming. In hindsight perhaps I should have. Chile were outstanding, I still believe the reasoning behind the trade were sound. but this is one of the reasons I stick to trading mostly. I am not a gambler, I hate losing and trust me this hurts. My apologies if you followed me in here.