This is the first of my portfolio of bets that I will be adding over the coming weeks and months. It is a solid strategy that has consistently won money for me . In this section I will explain the mechanics of the bet. Based on the same principles as all my trading.
The market is the Half Time / Full Time market. To win this bet if you have never used it, you need to predict who, if any team is leading at half time and at full time. There is 9 different outcomes possible.
Home/Home Home/Draw Home/Away
Away/Away Away/Draw Away/Home
Draw/Draw Draw/Home Draw/Away
To discover where the value lies in this market you need to do some serious stat crunching. Statistics are what are used by every bookmaker to create their books. If you have access to a good database you can create your own prices / books. The good news is there are such databases you can get access to. The one I use is BetFormPro. The trump card in the BFP locker is it’s ability to grade teams according to league position. This means that it has excellent accuracy.
I will use BFP to generate the potential HT/FT trades. I will only advise trades that offer exceptional value. That means the odds available far exceed what I believe to be the “true odds”. This advantage is vital if you are to make money from betting. Finding value is the most boring subject in the history of the world. However, it is the most important factor in betting. More important that predicting winners. If you cannot grasp this it’s time to go back to the bookies with the other mugs
Bank: The bank is the 100pt bank used in all of the Portfolio Trades. See HERE for bank explanation.
Staking: The staking on this trade will usually be a straight 2pt bet. This means you are risking a loss of 2% of your bank should the bet lose.
Exit Strategy: Although this is a straight bet, there may be several opportunities to lock in a profit if the scoring is going our way. I’ll add this in any trade the market to lock in profit may differ depending on the trade.
EXAMPLE FORMAT: (This was a real trade I was involved in)
Date: 23rd Feb
Match: Hannover 96 v Hamburg
Summary: The forecast Home/Home has implied odds in the long term of 2.98. The H2H gives implied odds of just 1.43. H/H is available to back with BETFAIR at 4.9. This represents outstanding value and is enough to trigger a bet.
Staking: The stake will be 2 Pts. I advise you obtain the best possible price. You need to take into account any commission if betting with the exchanges.
Exit: This is a straight bet. Depending on your attitude to risk, you may want to use the match odds market to lock in some profit if the home team take the lead.
Advice: Back Home/Home in the HT/FT market @ odds of 4.9 with 2 pts of bank.
Hannover were 3-1 up at HT and went on to win 5-1. The bet was successful yielding a profit of 7.41 pts profit after comm.
Please ask if you have any questions, or something is not clear.