Portfolio Bet: Under/Over 2.5 Goals: Straight Bet

The 2.5 goals market is one of the “Big 3” markets in Soccer betting, along with Match Odds and Correct Score they pretty much form the foundations that all the other markets are connected to. 2.5 goals is one of my favourites and over the years has proved very profitable. As with most of my soccer trades I use BetFormPro to help me locate these opportunities.

As with all my trades I am interested in 2 main factors. Do I think the bet I am placing is capable of success? To arrive at this process I use every piece of information available to me. Stats, H2H, current form, past form, team news, recent matches in midweek, such as a long trip away in Europe and a good or bad result. All these factors are important in arriving in the decision to bet or not. But after all that work, the next part is more important. Can I get a price that is significantly better than what I perceive the chances of success are? You will know this as “value”. It’s an overused word used by bookies and pundits to disguise a shite bet. How many times have you heard someone on TV say “At 4/1 it’s giving great value” – What when it’s favourite in a 20 runner handicap and hasn’t won for 3 years and has a shocking draw? You have to distinguish between the odds and the actual chances of the bet being successful. That’s the trick, that’s they key to being successful in the long term. It isn’t rocket science. If you back at a higher price than the “true” odds you will win in the long term.

The best way i can illustrate this is by bringing out the old coin toss analogy. Putting aside manufacturing discrepincies. A coin which is correctly balanced has a 50/50 chance of being heads or tails. To put that into betting odds: 100% (the book) divided into 50 = 2. To convert that into old fashioned odds 2 minus (1) =1. Evens. So to toss either heads or tails is an Even money chance. Say the coin was tossed in front of you 9 times. It landed on heads very time. I say to you “heads or tails”? “If you want to bet on this I’ll offer you 2/1 tails and 1/3 heads”. The previous 9 times it has been heads, so it it bound to be heads again right? Possibly, but the true odds are Even money. The 1/3 is much lower than it should be and the 2/1 is double what it should be.

That in a nutshell is determining value. The pattern says it will be heads. The true chance is 50/50. You’re offered double that. No brainer. The bet may well fail this time. But do the same bet 10 times. 100 times, 1000 times You will be quids in for sure. But it isn’t quite that simple. Value alone will win you money in the long term for sure. But some research and profiling will enhance your chances many times over. That’s what the portfolio is all about.

F*** me, that was boring. I was even bored writing it. But it needed explaining.

Under / Over 2.5: The bet is placed in the 2.5 goals market. Every Bookmaker and exchange has this market. There are also Asian handicap versions of this bet too. I want to keep things very simple, so mostly will stick to the U/O 2.5 goals.

Bank: The bank is the 100pt bank used in all of the Portfolio Trades. See HERE for bank explanation.

Staking: The staking on this trade will usually be a straight bet, between 1 and 3 points. This means you are risking a loss of between 1 and 3% of your bank should the bet lose.

Exit Strategy: Although this is a straight bet, there may be several opportunities to lock in a profit if the scoring is going our way. This market will decay with time. If no goal the unders will come in and the overs will drift. A goal (or sending off) will change the odds on both sides dramatically. How much depends on the timing of a goal. If we are on overs and a very early goal is scored, an opportunity to lock in profit or reduce liabilities will present itself should you wish to.

Results: The results of the Portfolio trades are published HERE. The trades are posted on the main page. You can get the heads up on when I have put up Portfolio trades by subscribing to “The inside track”

There will be another part to trading under/over 2.5 goals which involves In Play, but will only be available to subscribers of the FREE bulletin “The inside track” this is something I don’t want to post publicly . So if you want to be involved in the please subscribe.

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