Having structure to my trading is something that is fundamental to my success.
This can be broken down into many parts. You could call it a checklist of sorts. If the boxes are not all checked, then the bet doesn’t happen. This is my method.
- Analysis the data
- Define an entry point
- Have a exit strategy
- Protect my bank
Analysis of data
This could also be called “have a reason to bet”. I think the number one mistake made by people is they bet without reason or discipline. If you ever enter a trade or bet on something because “you fancy it” without regard to the price your getting or the stake you are using. Then I can pretty much guarantee you are one of the people the pro’s feed off. That sort of bet is ok if you spend your time down the betting shop all afternoon, or you don’t really care if you win or lose. If you want to take your betting seriously and want to move on to a level where you actually make money from watching and betting on sport, having a reason to bet is a good place to start.
To help me explain how I structure a trade, I am going to walk though a real example of a trade I have been setting up in the game on Friday 15th Feb in the Bundesliga between Wolfsburg v Bayern Munich.I am using a bank of £1000 in this example. The most I am prepared to lose is 2% of this bank or £20. I am flexible +/- a very small amount.
I use match profiling extensively through the BetformPro soccer statistics software. My analysis of this fixture has turned up something I think is a way to profit from it. In the past 25 matches that have involved Wolfsburg at home and Bayern away against similar level of opposition has produced goals in the first 10 minutes in 13 of these matches or 52%. So the odds of a very early goal are 1.92 or 10/11. I need to find a way of exploiting this powerful statistic.
Define An Entry point
My entry point here is to back OVER 2.5 goals for the first 10 minutes of the match. Looking at the goal expectation on Sporting Index which is 3. I can work out that the expected drift in over 2.5 goals will be from 1.77 . My intention is to stay in the market for the first 10 minutes and see if an early goal is scored. According to the stats we have a 52% chance of success. If a goal is scored I expect the Over 2.5 goal odds to be 1.35 at 10 minutes.
Have an Exit Strategy
Ok, so we know we are entering the market at 1.77 and if a goal is scored we can exit in profit. What if there isn’t a goal? What is our plan? What stake do we use?
With the expectation of an early goal I think the odds will hold up well, before an accelerated decay around 8/9 minutes. By 10 minutes Overs will be at around 2.02 (if the match starts at 1.79) Sometimes some adjustment is needed. let me recap some of the things we know.
Exit if no goal: 2.02
Exit if goal: 1.35
Max loss (Stop Loss) 2% of £1000 bank = £20
I know the closing odds are 2. £20 /2 = 10. My stake needs to be around 10 times £20 = £200.
The “what if” feature on the Betfair market page helps here.
So what if there is an early goal? I expect to be able to take around 1.35. If you have trading software (Highly recommended) it’s a 1 click operation and the calculations are done for you.
This is a screen I hope to see. Two nice green numbers. A profit of £62.22 (less commission)
There are other alternatives when it comes to trading out. If you think there will be more goals, you could reduce your liability or even LAY overs at 1.35 for your total stake. This gives you zero liability and all your profit goes onto over 2.5 See below
Protect My Bank
The final, and most important part of the trade. Before I “pull the trigger” on a bet, I go over every aspect of the trade and double check all my figures.
- What is the risk?
- What is the reward?
- Is the risk worth the potential reward given the “true” chance of success?
The risk is 2% of my bank (£20)
The reward is £59 or 5.9% increase to my bank. The risk v reward ratio is 1:3. I am winning 3 times my risk. a 3/1 chance in betting odds.
What is the “true” chance of success? The stats say 52% (10/11 chance)
So I getting odds of 3/1 for a nearly an evens shot. I think this trade passes the test.
I hope you enjoyed reading this, and it helps you to understand who I put together a trade. A time of writing this on the morning of this match, the likelihood is the prices will chance slightly before kick off and the calculations be differ. However, it was not my intention to put this up as a “tip”. It was to show how a trade is constructed, and the sorts of things I go though before deciding to bet.
I welcome your comments and will do my best to give an honest and comprehensive answer to any queries.
I have received a comment on my Twitter account (@itsamugsgame) from someone with a very fair comment that I want to address/discuss. The poster asked why I don’t just back Time of 1st goal 0-10 mins for £20 at 4.7? This is of course an alternative and deserves a proper reply.
My reason for structuring the trade this way is I feel it offers me more flexibility. If there is a hold up in play using the time of 1st goal bet, the time is decaying while there is no prospect of a goal. Where as in the over 2.5 goals markets any hold ups in play see the market usually I also have more flexible trade out options regarding part or all of my stake/profits. Of course there are other options and markets that can be used. Most of the markets are connected. This is a perfect example of that. I intended this post to be an insight into how I structure a trade as opposed to a tip. It was a good point though.
Update: I have just finished trading this scenario so I can share the result with you and explain how the trade went. I have made a video of the trade. The screen is the Bet Angel ladder interface.
As expected there was action straight from the start. At the 2 minute mark Bayern had a great chance to score from a cross, the striker headed just wide. The game was open and frantic, which backs up the stats that favoured an early goal. What i want to concentrate on here is the way the price moves as you watch the video. The video is 12 minutes long as I wanted to capture how the market moves for the whole time. The video is best watched in HD 720p for clarity.
You will see i put in my £200 at 1.77 a couple of minutes before the start, it gets matched just before the match goes in play. At 2 minutes into the match the price is BELOW the 1,77 I took. At 4 minutes it was 1.8 – potential loss £3.33. At 6 minutes 1.81 a loss of £4.22. At 8 minutes in a loss of £7.61 at 1.84. Just before 10 minutes the ball went out of play and I decided to trade out. I tried for 1.9 but eventually took 1.91 for a loss of £14.66.
In these 10 minutes there were 3 chances to score. The 1st one was a sitter. I could have stayed in until 14 minutes when the price hit the stop loss trigger. But I lost 1.46% of this bank.
Is this trade about predicting what will happen or making an informed judgement on the mathematical chances of something happening, turning that into a price point and applying a strategy that can take advantage of it with minimal risk for a greater reward? I am not bothered for 1 second that this trade lost. I had a great VALUE trade.
If you are interested in the Soccer profiling software that I mentioned. BetformPro. You can get a free 28 day trial.