Me,me,me,me,me,me

I guess you would be thinking with a title like this, that I have decided to write a post all about………..me. So I can remind you just how great I am. A great trader, a jolly fine chap and all round good egg. Sorry. It’s not that.

One of the proudest achievements in my life time is a by product of trading. My education business. It’s what takes up most of my “working time, it’s what drives me on and it’s something I am very passionate about.

Over 5 years ago when all this started, I never imagined the effect on my life it would have. Although I would say I “fell in to it”. Once it started I put my heart and sole into it, The people who stay usually stay a long time, and when they do move on, almost without exception get a lovely message.

So when new people join us, join our “family”. They get a warm welcome and fit seamlessly into the group. I am blessed with having some amazing people with me. The enthusiasm they show keeps it all going. It never feels stale or out of touch. There is never shortage of challenging questions to answer or problems to fix.

The big benefit to new people though is they get to tap into all this experience. I often say to people thinking about joining us. “It’s not about me. It’s not all about Steve Howe”. Yeah, I set the tone, the culture. I steer the ship and provide the guidance and answers to the tough questions. BUT, and it’s a massive BUT. I genuinely feel that if you are at the start of the learning journey, picking up a new strategy. The people best placed to help you are the ones who are 2 months, 5 months or even 12 months further along that journey. the issues you will face are fresh in their minds, the challenges are raw.

I wanted to write this to pay tribute to my community. I wanted to let the World know how awesome THEY are. It isn’t, never has been and never will be all about ME.

My Online Workshop

I have been asked repeatedly over the years if I was ever going to make my workshops available online. After many false dawns, I am very proud to announce that I have created an Online Workshop that fully integrates into my existing support packages.

In the end my ill health has caught up with me. as my hearing has deteriorated over the last 12 months I am finding it harder and harder to deliver a workshop in the size room I use. I have a solution for this, I have now got a smaller room!! The Albert Hall was just too fucking big! My workshops now cater for 8 lucky individuals.

Putting together an online workshop has posed many challenges and taken a huge amount of time and effort, I didn’t want to create something half-assed. A poor 2nd best. Btw, make no mistake that actually attending a workshop with me is, of course, a much better plan. I believe you would get more from spending a day with me than doing online learning. That’s obvious.

BUT, I have tried to stay true to what I show in the classroom, although those difficult questions being fired at me won’t be missed too much……

I don’t want to bang on about what the workshop is or isn’t here. I have created a brand new site that has a state of the art LMS platform on it that is able to deliver the workshops without clogging up my own site,
You see what’s on offer HERE

The early feedback is overwhelming positive, it comes with a full money back guarantee, and is a gateway into my network. What’s to lose?

The Social Media Conundrum

I think the was Social Media has evolved over the last decade is changing society in a way I don’t think anyone expected. One one hand it’s a brilliant tool for business and consumers alike. Especially small business who want to attract new clients. If you do not have some sort of social media presence you are at a serious disadvantage.

In this post I want to have a frank discussion about Social media and sports trading/gambling/sport.

As you know, I use Twitter and to a less extent Facebook to keep in touch with people who have followed me. I need to say straight off I detest Twitter (especially) with Facebook not too far behind. In fact, I am very close to deleting Twitter completely. Not because I get abused, in the main I don’t have too much trolling. Although as a high profile trader I get my fait share.

Some of the shite that goes in is almost unbelievable. People who are trying to raise their own profile, for their own agenda follow you, the like your posts, they add your @xxxxxxx to they posts and agree with you. So it aligns then with you. Then others with an agenda, who may want to discredit you use fake accounts. Did you know many of the Trading Facebook groups are actually seeded with people who are paid to plant posts, to say negative things about competitors to drive customers their way?
Then you have people trying to impress you. They add your name to posts that are in conflict with others so that it looks like you are on their side. It’s a crock of shit. If i ever, ever have anything to say to anyone. I will say it directly to them, and they know it will be from me, as i will sign my name to it. Anything else has nothing to do with me,

I think I have a decent moral compass. I treat people with respect. Whatever their Race, religion or sexual orientation. I would not intentionally seek to offend anyone, although if I do, I would add I think it’s ok to be offended. It’s ok to take a different view to others, as long as you don’t cross the line. The way I carry myself on the internet is as in real life. If I wouldn’t say it to your face, I wouldn’t type it. I don’t hide behind different profiles. Never have and never will.

What inspired me to write this post was a discussion I was listening to on Talksport yesterday afternoon (Sunday 25th Aug). I was on a long car journey (5 hours) and as always, tune into talk sport. There was a discussion about the racist abuse that Pogba and Rashford were being subjected to for missing penalties. I just cannot get my head around this. It makes me angry, it almost makes me ashamed of my own race.
Let me say that again. It makes me almost ashamed of my own race! Why the fuck should I feel like that? Why am I letting a few lowlife scum get into my head and let them make me feel like this? I guess I am not alone. I have a voice. I have the means to communicate with lots of people. So I feel a responsibility to speak out. If we all turn the other cheek, if we cross the road when we see injustice, then how as a society do we stop it? If we do nothing if we say nothing, what will ever change?


We also need to start voting with our feet. I am so close to this now. I can’t be done with this. Will, it hurt my business? Yes, but I think this is more important than that. By walking away am I turning the other cheek? Have I as a decent member, responsible member of our society got a duty to speak out, to challenge this vile behavior?

Why can you create an anonymous account on Twitter and then use it to abuse and terrorise, to spread filth and hatred? Why cannot Twitter make you complete a “know your customer” profile before an account is granted?

This is an incredible tool, but I feel like I need to walk away from it. If you are not part of the solution, you are part of the problem. I encourage you all to speak out too.

I’ll leave you with this. If you are a racist, homophobe or cannot tolerate people who hold a different religious view to your own. Please don’t follow me. In fact, I’ll put it in stronger terms than that.
Fuck off, get the fuck away from me. I don’t want anything to do with you.

Review of my Workshop

I was both delighted and humbled by this review from someone who I greatly admire. A young lady who had a sparkling career in professional racing. She knows her stuff and is a tremendous asset to our community.

You can read the review here https://www.greenfilly.com/steve-howe-its-a-mugs-game-workshop-review/

I just want to say that I never ask people to write reviews to say positive things about me. That’s not to say I am grateful and humbled when they do!
The reason I have linked this is to give you an impartial view from “the other side of the fence”.

I strongly advise you to follow her and read her blog regularly. She writes beautifully and talks with authority and humour about something she is very passionate about. This Lady is a rising star within our trading community. You read it here first!

You can follow Green Filly on Twitter @filly_green

The blog is https://www.greenfilly.com/blog/

Cheers
Steve

13 years

27th July 2006, exactly 12 months to the day after my Dad passed away was the day that changed everything.
After the best part of 20 years in a factory, I drove out of the gates for the last time. An emotional day, a day full of trepidation but also hope and excitement. I was free at last. Free from the “chains” of a production line, free from an alarm clock. My destiny in my own hands. No boss, No timetable and no limits to what I could do.

Being forced out by redundancy was the best way it could have happened. When you are driving to work, knowing that the amount of money you will earn will almost certainly be less than what trading would make is hard to do. It’s the very best barometer to knowing when it’s time to quit your job.

My plan was to give it 6 months and see where I was. If things started looking iffy, I could get a job. after just 2 weeks it was clear that wasn’t going to be an option. Free to trade every afternoon (and evening) my restraints were lifted and I threw myself into making as much as I could. Just in case.

So July 27th is a bittersweet day. Significant as it “freed” me. But sad as I remember my Dad. One of the last things I remember him saying to me was his advice about my blossoming betting career.
“You wanna pack that betting malarky in Son, it’s a bloody mugsgame

Wish he could see me now.

I keep going in-play​……..

No not me,!!!!!!

“I keep going in-play” is something I read on a daily basis. I have some thoughts on this and if you wish to continue reading I am happy to share them with you.
However, i must warn you that you may not like what you read. This post will divide opinion for sure.

One of the things that really sticks me is the tone of the complaint.
“I keep going in play…. It’s not my fault, I can’t help it….. everything is against me…..”
What a load of cock. You can help it, but you do it. Let me give this some “meat”.

I think many who let their trades go in-play, for whatever reason do so not because of lack of discipline, although that is a big issue for many. It’s because they either have NO PLAN, or a lack of belief in their own ability to apply the strategy they have chosen to deploy. Perhaps even that strategy is not working, or they are not applying it as was intended.
But finding something/someone else to blame is always a better option than taking responsibility for yourself isn’t it?

Is it fair to say that in society we live by sets of rules? We learn these rules from birth. Some are fundamental to our safety and well being. Let’s take driving as an example.
Most built-up areas have a 30mph speed limit. Why? It’s to keep us all safe. Now there are times where you could go much faster, maybe 70mph in a 30mph zone. But we don’t. Why not if you could do it?
Because of the consequences of what may happen.
Death, injury, getting caught!
The consequences are all dire and may have life-changing impacts on you and others.
Now I am not trying to say going in-play is a matter of life & death. But the consequences are still significant,

So the question you need to ask yourself is exactly how seriously you are taking trading. Is it a bit of fun? Is it just for an “interest”? If so, then that’s fine, as that is what you are getting.
if it a little more serious or even you are aspiring to maybe build up to trading full time. Then you need to stop and take a cold, hard and long look at yourself and what you are doing.
If you cannot find the self-control to take the loss, no matter how unpalatable the loss is. Then failure is already upon you. The only variables are how long it will be before you give up and how much money it will cost you.
If this is you I implore you to STOP. STOP trading and do some deep thinking. Get some help, get some advice. Book a call with me if you like and talk to me. No charge, no strings and no obligation. https://calendly.com/steve_mg
I may be able to help, I may not. but at least you have made a start by aknoweldging the issue are are taking some action.

We are constantly bombarded by people showing us how great they are at trading, how easy it all is blah, blah, blah.
There are not many of us talking like this are there?

My apologies for using “cock” and “meat” in the same sentence………




Webinar 31st July

You may know that I hosted a webinar in June. Just some basic principles that I apply to my own trading and I wanted to share.

The webinar was a great success and the feedback I received was overwhelmingly positive. This has inspired me to hold another one.

I have cleared a space in my diary for Wednesday evening 31st July 2019

What I found during the last webinar was the amount of questions that were flying at me. Mostly random. It seems that many of you have a thirst for information.

I would ask that if you wish to take part that you simply subscribe to my email list. Due to the GDPR rules Aweber who host my email subscriptions will send what is known as a opt in email to confirm you want to receive emails from me. I cannot resend these and you will need to confirm once you have subscribed. These will almost always end up in spam, so be warned.

A few days before the webinar I will email my whole mailing list and invite you to register with Zoom for the webinar. Places are limited.

I invite you to email me at steve@itsamugsblog.co.uk with any questions or topic you would like me to discuss. I will do my best to fit as many as I can in. I will as always answer with honesty and a smidgin of humour.

If this is something that interests you. Make sure you are on my mailing list by next weekend 27th July. If you are not sure if you are, simply drop me a line at the above email.

Lets get these questions/ Topics in!

Cheers
Steve

Ask Steve Question about the accu​racy​ of odds.

I have a really interesting question from Plamen.

 Do you think that the money we see in the last three odds 1 minute before kick-off / at the Betfair / can give us a guideline what are the expectations for the final result?

It’s a known fact that over the long term that Betfair closing odds (or Betfair SP BSP) are highly accurate. But this is something we discussed in the question about overbet runners. LINK

However, in Football there is a more dominant bookmaker. That’s Pinnacle.
Pinnacle claim that if you can beat their opening prices by 1.5 points you win in the long term.

My answer here may seem a bit lazy. But to be perceftly honest, if you can find reliable and well written information from someone who knows more than you about the subject in question. It would be wrong not to bring attention to that.

So first is this article may Pinnacle themselves Market Movement in Betting
The 2nd link is from Football_Data.co.uk Article I though it was very well-argued and very useful.

I hope this helps understand your question. My thanks for asking it.

Cheers
Steve

Ask Steve Question

I have a question from Chris

“If you were starting from scratch in 2019, what steps would you take
i.e. which sports would you trade, how to identify a good educator and
learning about mindset”

So 3 interesting questions, I’ll address them each in turn.

I think the first question is relatively easy for me. I think you have to trade something you are a) passionate about and b) know a little bit about the sport. I don’t think there is anything worse than spending a huge amount of time learning about something you dislike. When you hit tough times, and you will. It is another excuse to give up. So start off with trading a sport you enjoy.

Second question. How do you identify a good educator?
This is and will be a controversial question and answer. As there will be many opinions. This is only mine.
To start with, find someone who specialises in the sport you want to learn. It would be pointless asking me to teach you about football trading when my speciality is Horse Racing. Or even ask me to teach you In Play Racing. I simply do not do it.


The next part is due diligence. Find out what you can about the person in question. Are they credible? What exactly are they offering? Can they supply you with testimonials or references, From real people, not ones they have made up! Will / can they put you in touch with previous or present customers? What is their reputation like? Do they have a track record? Do they offer any support?
Just a little caveat here. Don’t listen to people who tell you how great they are. Listen to OTHER people telling you how great that person is”
If you were having a big extension built on your house, how would you choose your builder? Same piss, different pot.


There is a mostly negative vibe about Betfair Trading education. There is a good reason for that. Some are not very good! Another reason is learning to win consistently, is bloody hard. The constant bombardment by the “look at me ” merchants do not help. The making it look so easy approach raises expectations and you find that many aspiring traders will rock up, expect to spend a day at a course and expect to be at the same level as the trainer.
Not possible. Am I the only one saying this? If so there are more disingenuous fuckers around that I feared. This is why I encourage and offer long term support. It’s no coincidence that the people who stick at it make more money than the ones that go “around the houses” constantly.

Last question: Learning about mindset.
Mindset, or psychology if you like is a tough one. I believe this to be a specialised field that requires specialised guidance. So it is something I don’t say too much about. Other than to impart the bits I do know about.
There is no doubt that one of the key skills you need is discipline and patience. However, the best way to learn these skills is to understand that if you have a process to follow that works, and you trust that process. All you need to do is follow that. Trust The Process. Then it becomes clear that the controlled losses are part of the cost of doing business. They are factored in. Then they become less important and aids disipline.
What i am saying in a nutshell is. If you gain the knowledge to be able to build a little consistancy into your trading, this mindset side of trading suddenly becomes so much easier. There are many things we can work on that help with mindset. Without making it a stand alone subject. Everything you do has an influence on your state of mind.

So some tough questions there. i hope I have answered them. Please comment if you would like to discuss or disagree any of these points.
I would like to make clear that I will not publish any comments that mention other educators about. My points have been made generally based on my observations. If you have purchased educational material from someone and it has not delivered what you hoiped. Please take that up with them. I will not comment on others products I do not have experience of personally.

thanks to Chris for the questions. Please keep them coming

Cheers
Steve