Back2Lay Trades – 18th Feb

2 Back2Lay trades today on this quiet Monday.

2:10 Wolverhampton Farandooney 8.4 Stop Loss is 10.5

3.05 Carlisle Yesyoucan 5.6 Stop loss is 6.6

Place bets now and trade out pre race to lock in profit

There is a guide on the site here https://www.itsamugsblog.co.uk/education-how-to-guides/how-to-guide-how-to-place-a-back2lay-trade/

UPDATE:
Farandooney into 5.2 for a profit of £58 after commission
Yesyoucan into 4.1 for a profit of £35

3 thoughts on “Back2Lay Trades – 18th Feb

  1. Morning Mugs, Any chance you can say the reason why you have singled out these two horses for a price move.

    Is it down to the charts, money movements, NAPS etc. I see Faranadooney’s trainer rarely has horses run in the UK – is that it? Nothing is leaping out at me with Yesyoucan apart from the going being positive.

    I often see horses with loads of stats in their favour, but then the move is opposite or does not come. For example today Oscar Bernadotte at Southwell 1700 has highly positive stats for Sire NHF distance, Jockey/Trainer and Trainer/Debut but the total volume traded so far is £142. What is it that makes them canditates for a move???

    • I’m sure you will understand that I don’t want to be giving my reasons for my selections. It has taken many years, a huge investment in terms of time and effort to get to where I am with these. It’s a combination of many factors. Some signals are obvious, others less so. It seems to work for now. But what i can say, is you have to constant refine ANY method or strategy you use and need to stay one step ahead of the pack chasing you. If you stand still you will wake up one day and find you cannot win anymore. What i used to do 7 years ago has no chance of making a penny now. I am constantly looking for new angles. When one closes another opens somewhere else. This is especially true in Football markets, as there are only really 2 markets that matter. The rest are derived from these prices. back to the selections and the horse you mentioned in the Southwell race. You have found some information about it and have thought it out well. The amount of money matched is a big signal. You need to think about the things that move a price in any market. Weight of money , momentum, market confidence. The form can be left to the clever guys who understand all that stuff. You can drill down into the finest detail of every run, collateral form, trainer from, jockey form etc etc. But when the horse wakes up in the morning and doesn’t fancy it, or he has a terrible journey in the horse box on a boiling July afternoon, stuck in a traffic jam for 4 hours on the M4. Or the owner says to the trainer “not today mate, we want to get the price higher for his next run”. We are not privy to any of this info. So all the work is a waste of time. It’s a dark art. Hope this gives a clue Jeff, but thats all ya getting 🙂

      • I know what you mean about constantly changing after writing loads of BOTs that work brilliantly for a week, then never win again…..and I mean never!!!

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