Racing Trades: 9th March Evening Review and Review of Site Crash

Back2Lays

1:55 Chepstow: Silver Commander 7/1: 8. stop loss 9.8 AMENDED

2:15 Ayr: Jonny Delta 7/2: 4.3 stop loss 5.4

3:25 Ayr: Netminder 9/2: 5.5 stop loss 6.8

4:50 Chepstow: Decent Lord 5/1: 6.0 stop loss 7.4

No need to chase these: I have money left in all of these prices. If it’s not taken it will go down as NO BET

To get the best out of my trades see HERE

Evening Update:

First trade Silver Commander was a wobbler, it didn’t do anything, then drifted very quickly into the stop loss. A loss of £18.

Second we had Jonny Delta. My money was not matched at 4.3. But a horse was withdrawn and I calculated the new position to be 3.8. I was lucky enough to get matched. Then another horse was taken out which reduced the price to 3.69. This was a big mover and eventually hit 2.68. Went on to win. £36.17

Then it all came crashing down. Just before 3:00pm the Betfair site crashed. Again. Not for the first time I was faced with serious amounts of money on positions I could not get out of. I cannot begin to tell you how angry I am about this. I know some of you would have lost money too. I have the 3rd trade down as a COMPLETE Loss: The whole £100. It was possible to trade out well below the price we took in running if you had access and the funds available in a Betdaq account.

The final runner once again gave us little chance and drifted into the stop loss. If Betfair had not have crashed it would have been a winning day. But there is nothing I can do about that.

This whole episode has raised some serious concerns. I am happy to take my chances with my own money. But I realise some of you new traders especially would have not come across this before and may have been exposed to a big loss. I cannot allow that. So it’s with regret I am not going to post up any more morning trades for the time being. There are plenty of tipsters out there. I am no tipster, I merely want to show what is possible with structure and discipline.

From some of the feedback I am getting I think the benefits from me passing my experience onto you is more important than a few tips. It’s certainly not the end of the blog. On the contary. I am going to spend more time on writing articles and showing other ways of making money from betting. My Portfolio trades will continue, as these are a different kind of trade with less exposure to this kind of disaster. Thanks for your support. Gutted for you if you were caught too.

MG

 

25 thoughts on “Racing Trades: 9th March Evening Review and Review of Site Crash

  1. Hi Mugs,

    I see Decent Lord has hit the stop loss almost straight away, other traders reading your blog and reverse engineering your selections to try and fleece the newbies, poker face on and lets play bitches
    ;0)

    • I doubt I have that much influence Matt. It’s very disappointing, as it has bounced back now. The market is a little thin. Not looking great today, but should still make a decent profit on the week. I have to prove myself before I have the sort of following that has real influence. If it was me who had just discovered a great blog. I would be very cautious before I started to get stuck in blindly. I hate being a tipster lol. I’m more a strategist and educator. But I need people to read my blog if it’s going to be worth my effort. If I show how to make money, that gives me credibility in the area full of scammers and dreamers.My long term aim is to give you the skills to find your own movers. By following my structure and discipline I hope that will enable many of you to follow the right path to making money regularly.

  2. without giving all your secrets away how do you go about finding your selections, for B2L and L2B, enjoying the site and videos

    • Thanks Alan. That would be giving all my secrets away wouldn’t it? Seriously, I look at every market and get a feel for the shape of it. I then use my experience to see what may be a potential drifter or steamer. It’s not an exact science, hence I often call it wrong. The real trick in all is this the bet management side.If everything is under control you can get away with some modest losses. If you have a good study of my results sheets you will see there are some really good gains, and a tight reign on the losers. This is the real secret. Some of my picks are really obvious (well they are to me). Try and apply my bet management methods to your own selections and paper trade them. You may surprise yourself.I am going to do a piece on how to work out a stop loss position soon (it’s on my LONG list). It’s pretty simple. thanks for your comment MG

  3. “.My long term aim is to give you the skills to find your own movers. By following my structure and discipline I hope that will enable many of you to follow the right path to making money regularly.”

    Well sir, I feel confident in what I’ve absorbed from yourself already to make my own plays and at the moment with small stakes i’ve called the market right 7 times out of 10. Beginners luck or the penny’s dropped…..we shall see.

    ATB

    Matt

    • Nice work Matt. That’s exactly what I am aiming for. The way todays going I may ask you to pick them next week 🙂 I am so chuffed that something I have waffled about has helped someone. 🙂 Cheers MG

  4. Not so good today 1 from 4 markets called correctly and I lost 30% of my bank during the Betfair crash, I’m sure my mindset was affected (I sat there in complete disbelief) by the loss of my bank through no fault of my own. Everybody needs to jump ship me thinks. Betdaq en-masse here we come.

    ATB

    Matt

    • I lost a serious amount of money today.Read my review when I have calmed down enough to write it. Think your right Matt

  5. Two thoughts.

    1. re selections. I think you are quite right to stop putting up selections for trading horses. This blog and the video channel on YT should aim to educate and inform. I for one would be most interested to know on any given day which races you decided to trade and why. Same for the ones you avoided.

    2. I am a full time financial trader trying to learn the sports game. In my business you must have the facility to hedge. So traders you need access to Betdaq and two or more bookmakers. I had to cover a number of positions this afternoon on live football. Computers crash, sites crash.

    Keep up the great work Mugs. I have learnt more from watching and re-watching the videos than all other learning put together.

    • It was a bad day with the site crashing cost me the full loss on the 3rd race , which had a pre race profit before the crash, also lost on another when both my inplay prices would have been matched, think it would be a shame if you stopped posting as a newbie myself to pre-race trading pick, as I dont think anyone can blame your for a betfair crash and the losses that occurred. Betfair really need to sort it but we have heard that before did notice there fixed odds site was all ok, and did read that this was the 3rd year in a row that the site had crashed on the Saturday before Cheltenham, maybe a date for next years diary, Dont take things to bad about peoples losses will all should know we are taking a risk and these things happen and thanks for a great blog.

      • Thanks Alan, There is a comment I am about to reply to from OT. That may address some of your comment. I am looking at things a little more philosophically now (Sunday morn) We move on! Don’t worry too much about the daily trades, there are plenty of other ways to make a few quid. Keep watching for more stuff Cheers MG

    • Your 2nd point is spot on. My situation is more complex due to the high rate Premium Charge. Anyway it’s happened more than once to me 🙂 Look out for some Racing advice coming soon. I am going to put something together in respect to reading a market. This will be my most ambitious project yet. It’s complexity needs careful explanation. The football season is drawing to a close, I’ll have more time soon. You comments are very humbling and appreciated. Cheers MG

  6. Sorry to hear that mate, I’m hoping Betdaq can pick up and go on to take Betfair on after their announcement today. The information on this blog is second to none and I’m looking forward to seeing more. Hoping tomorrows portfolio bets bring some money back in to the pot, also delighted with the winner today after 6 minutes! I was late getting on and only managed 1.73 but profits profit.

    • Betdaq are like Santa to me. God I so much want to believe, but until I see it with my own eyes I can’t. Their statement today was excellent news, and great timing. I think a little more liquidity will tip the balance point over and Betfair will be full of tumbleweed. I, like everyone else have their gripes about Betfair, essentially they are a financial institution. At one time I had a substantial amount of money in my account, but because of the hacking stories (I rang BF and asked if my money was safe, they basically told me if someone logs in with my password it’s tough) I have just enough to bet with in there now, and sometimes that’s not enough.But over the years Betfair have given me a fabulous opportunity. I have made more than I could ever have though possible and I am grateful to them for that. But the Betfair who I loved passionately are no more. I don’t know them anymore. They are moving against every value that they championed when they first came onto the scene. Since the floatation they are unknown to me. The transformation from the World’s greatest gambling site into a Casino and now mainstream bookmaker is nearly complete. Their unique selling point has gone. God knows who is running this Company, but he has absolutely no idea how the majority of his clients who use the exchange daily operate. Maybe I am doing them a huge disservice. Maybe they know exactly what they are doing and their “big plan” is working very well.
      I think the exchange model they invented is not the golden egg everyone thinks it is, they have a huge customer base and if they can convert them into the Sportsbook they will make more money. As a Company they are responsible to their shareholders, they have every right to run their business as they see fit. But as customers we have every right to bet with who we choose to. It doesn’t have to be Betfair anymore.
      Did I say freiburg had a leaky defence? 5 goals is very leaky. I love it when a plan comes together. Shame about Undinese, they were poor from what I saw in 1st half. Cheers MG

    • Glad you understood that 🙂 I watched it back and thought “WTF am I on about”????? Plenty more waffle to come from me 🙂 Cheers MG

  7. Hi Mate

    A very sensible approach I think.

    Your educational stuff is worth a lot more than any of your suggested trades would ever be, at the end of the day people will ultimately need to learn to “paddle their own canoe” and make their own selections to trade.

    I can fully understand how you feel as losing your own money is one thing but having the responsibility for other people money too is not a nice feeling when things that are 100% outside of your control contrive to work against you.

    Nobody will hold you responsible of course they won’t but that doesn’t stop you feeling their pain so I think you decision to stop posting the selections is a sensible one.

    I am sure you have this one on the agenda but a post on what you can do when things go belly up would be useful for the new traders.

    Anyway top work with what you have produced so far and long may it continue.

    As for Betfair…… don’t even go there.

    Regards
    OT

    • Ot – That’s a really good idea. I will be putting together a Emergency escape plan soon. Going to work more on education for sure. That was always what I wanted to do. I just need an audience.Giving away money was a great way to get poeple here. Hope that still continues. The blog is groing daily so hopefuly that will continue
      Thanks for your support, especially your help promoting my blog on Twitter. I really apprecaite that. btw if anyone reading this doesn’t follow OT on Twitter they really should. He has a great site , his Twitter is @OnlineTrader1

  8. Ez Mugs,

    Bad day at the office yesterday but keep your head high man, no-one holds you responsible for the open positions we had, we followed you in as part of our learning curve, basically I was trading the markets you traded on then watching the video’s to pick up where we did things right or went wrong.
    So keep up with the video’s mate and I for one am looking forward to some more sage advice from one so wise in the way of the trader.
    By the way does anyone trade on the NBA, in close games the swings are immense, i’ve been playing in practise mode and have made some decent money, sods law though I went in to last night game Hawks V Nets live and got stung when the Hawks gave up in the 3rd, did’nt expect that from two closely matched teams. Oh well we live and learn. Keep it up mate this site is my first port of call every day on tha intawebs.

    ATB

    Matt

    • Cheers Matt. The videos will be on the agenda for sure. I am trying to set up so I can show Betdaq in action and use the Betfair graphs to help. Will maybe wait until after Cheltenham for this. Next week is a big week. So my focus will be 100% on gathering Dollar 🙂

  9. Really enjoying the blog – I know that a lot of people (including me) will have learnt something from it.

    As for the crash yesterday, it’s incredibly frustrating losing money and especially so when it’s out of your control. After the last time it happened to me last year, I told myself never again and opened a Betdaq account. Everyone who wants to take this seriously should have a back up – there’s no point losing and not learning.

    People should do whatever they can to ensure that they arn’t in a situation where things are taken out of their hands, so a second exchange account is a must, as is having the Betfair app on your phone in case your computer crashes etc. People should think of a worse case scenario and then put measures in place to minimise the risk of it happening to them.

  10. Hey would you mind letting me know which web host you’re working with? I’ve loaded your blog in 3 completely different internet browsers and I must say this blog loads a lot faster then most. Can you suggest a good internet hosting provider at a fair price? Kudos, I appreciate it! dekdbdbbcccaeege

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