Trades for 20th Feb

Back2Lay Ludlow 3:45 Rowlestone Lad 11/2 bookies 5.8 betfair stop loss 7.2

Back2Lay 4.05 Lingfield – Pencombe 7/2 bookies 4.4 Betfair stop loss 5.5

Update: post race

Good steam on Rowlestone Lad down to 4.7 when I initially traded out. It wasn’t until after I had done this I realised there was a substantial delay due to an incident in the previous race. The only reason I had closed the trade was because the race was very close to off time. The price still looked like there may be a couple more ticks in in so I went back in at my original 4.7. Managed to get the trade closed at 4.2 before it bounced very close to off. A good trade but messy.

The other runner pretty much hung around at at 4.4 to 4.6 all day, the quickly drifted near the off. I hate this because it becomes a 50/50 call wether we win or lose.

Be sure to read the new guide of how to trade back2Lays that I posted this afternoon.

10 thoughts on “Trades for 20th Feb

  1. Its proving very difficult to get on at the prices you suggest but managed to get on for £50 today at 5.7 – just 1 tick below the suggestion so thought that was a small enough to still give it a go.

    • Question if i may. All of the main volume obviously comes in the last 5-7 mins before the off. When do you get out if it moves in your favour. You suggest a stoploss (15%) to limit the downside but what about maximising the upside – any guidance on that ? Do you always wait till just before the off or do you do something else ?

      • Steve, As ever you ask good questions! Good call on taking 5.7 btw. Did you see what happened yesterday? Thats why you don’t chase.Getting matched is a challenge sometimes, but it is something you will get better with with practice. I am writing a comprehensive guide to getting the best from these trades, and I have made some gig changes to what I put up. This will benefit all of you I’m sure. Deciding when to exit is very hard to advise. The stop loss if there to protect against something unforeseen happening. If when going to post our runner got loose, galloped 3 miles flat out (which everyone was watching on tv) drifts from 4 to 30, which I have seen before and then runs then we have no protection. We KNOW about the potential downside. The upside is harder to predict. My selections are chosen with the hope a steam in. Sometimes they do not move until late, the are heavily backed, other times the move is early and they drift near the off. There is no way to tell. My average profit on the runners that do shorten is around 15% – this is an average, so there are some with 2 ticks moves and some with 20 tick moves. I an hoping the guide will help. Something to note: If it hasn’t moved all day and starts to move in the live shows, there is nothing stopping you adding more money to the trade. If you have 3 ticks “in the bank” and it’s moving in this can be a good tactic to enhance profits. At your level I am sure it’s something you could look However, it’s not for new traders. Hope i have covered your question Steve

  2. thank you – that definitely helps. I’ll ask a more specific one to try and get more of a handle on it ( if my questions start to get on our nerves then just shout and i’ll be less frequent ).

    As we speak (11.49am) Rowlestone Lad has moved in by 8 ticks from your suggestion giving me a green of £5.37 ( £38 stake was all i could get on before it moved in ).

    Do i green now or do i wait ? Do i move my stop down so that worst case i scratch or do i do something else ? or is there no right answer and you just judge it on experience ?

    • There’s no right answer. It’s still moving, so while it’s still moving why exit? If it stalls and then starts to drift you have a decision to make. It may well be temp and it might then steam again. Or it might keep drifting like the one yesterday. It went form 8 to 7.4, then drifted to 23!!!! The Betfair graph nest to each runner can be your friend here. One thing to add. A steam cannot go forever, looking at the other runners in the race and how they have been trading can help. If one has moved in, the others are steady and ours moves out slightly a picture can be formed. Experience will help you. That’s the best I can do Steve

  3. most helpful – thank you very much. One of my biggest weaknesses is taking a profit too quick fearing it may reverse only to find that it keeps moving in the direction i chose and i could of got a lot more out of it. I’m working on the “sweet point” so your comments are very helpful.

  4. Is there a fixed time window when you decide to follow a horse? In other words are you all done looking for steamers by 10.15, then onto a different style of trading.

    Can the factors that make you follow a horse happen almost any time up to the race start?

      • Steve, I initially traded out at 4.7 on first, but the realised there was a long delay so i went back in at 4.7. I managed to get out at 4.2 as the money was coming for the other favs and the market had stagnated as they waited for the Doncaster race to run. The other runner hit the stop loss unfortunately. I managed a small profit. Tough trading today on these.

        • i got out at 5.0 on Rowlestone , did not have a clue about the big delay so i got out when i thought the race was about to start not knowing it was gonna be another 15 mins and on the other one i felt like it was drifting so closed at 5.2 which was short of the stop loss so saved a little there. Thanks for letting me know what you did , looks like i was not too far off your thinking so that’s encouraging

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