Improve your productivity

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Betfair Trading Advice

If you are reading this, it means you are interested in improving your trading. But let me be very clear. To be successful as a trader. It isn’t just about graphs, ladders and market signals.

I want to discuss productivity. When I worked in a car factory whenever we heard that word “productivity” it meant we were about to get more work. But what does it really mean in our day to day lives?

The biggest barrier we face when we are striving to learn new skills or improve the quality of our lives is TIME.

Time waits for no one.

To take things to that next level. To really “kick on” with your goals and aspirations, you need a strong work ethic and the ability to think clearly and objectively.
There are many barriers in our way stopping us achieving this.

You will have heard this line from so many quarters.

“Hard work = success”.

 What about this one?

“Work smarter, not harder”.

 I prefer this line.

 “Hard work + Smart work = Success”

 

Adding Value

What I think is much more is important is how you value your time. We have all heard about the old Pareto 80/20 rule, and how it can be applied to so many situations in life.
In this situation we can say that 20% of our input leads to 80% of our outcomes.

Trimming down the excess

Over a decade ago I found Twitter. I saw it as a fabulous way to collect data and opinion. Back then it worked very well. Things have changed. I spoke a while back about the negative bias that operates within Twitter and in fact social media in general. Twitter is now an angry mob.

Not only does social media take you away from doing what you should be doing. It can also alter your mood. How many times have you spent 10 minutes on Twitter and then the next hour being annoyed with something you read? How is that adding any value to your life?

Are there any other “time sappers” in our everyday lives?

Smart phone – It’s probably the biggest drain in your life. Is it possible to have a normal conversation with anyone without them looking at their phone every 2 minutes?

Facebook/Instagram/TickTok etc

Email – I get over 100 emails a day. 95 of them add zero value to my life. The problem with email and the world we live in now is people expect an instant response. I had an email last week from someone. I didn’t reply as I was busy doing something else. 1 hour later I got another one from the same person. It said “????????????”.

Seriously?

Consider an auto responder that says something like.

“Thanks for your email. I answer my emails at xx:xx pm. I will respond in due course.”

The way I use my time and social media has changed. Let me share that with you, and also a way that will prove to you in no uncertain terms just how much time you are wasting each day.

What I would like you to do is create a journal for 30 days. I expect that after a few days you will see what I am saying is shockingly true.
I have knocked up an excel sheet you can download HERE
Fill this in (the instructions are within the sheet)

I think you will be amazed with just how much time you waste. 15 minutes here and there on your phone or Facebook/Twitter, answering pointless emails. Even if you don’t use this time to be productive,

This may sound  harsh. But if you want to be productive. To spend time educating yourself. Adding value to your life. You need to eradicate the things that are not adding value and sapping your time and energy.

Once you have freed up all of this time, and have a new energy and positive outlook. Use it wisely.

 

Bank Protection

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One of the key skills any person aspiring to be successful when trading on Betfair’s exchange or placing bets with any bookmaker is some sort of bank management. In particular keeping your bank as intact as possible.

One of the fundamental principles is you need to be able to facilitate further growth in your fund. If you lose that, or severely diminish it. It could be game over.
This video will give a few pointers on this subject.

As always i welcome your comments, and will always try to reply in a timely fashion.
If you would be interested in learning how I trade and learning from me. Please either look at my “Learn to trade with Steve” page. Or alternatively have a look at my Online Learning Portal Sportstradingschool.
Cheers Steve

Watch my latest webinar

I have added a full webinar to my Online Workshop taster course.

This is completly free and now conatins 2 full modules from the workshop, a race that I have broken down and describe exactly what is happening and why, and a complete webinar. In this very well recieved webinar I talk about how to trade jumpy markets.

If you wish to get access to this FREE preview. Just follow this link to my Online Learning Platform and register to gain access.

https://www.sportstradingschool.co.uk/shop/

Although this is a shopping cart. I want to reiterate this is FREE

Justify Your Trade

Having some justification to enter a trade will greatly increase the chances of a successful outcome. These short videos will give you some guidance as to how I achieve this.

I hope you enjoyed these videos, and can take something away from them to add to your trading.
If you would like to learn more about I may be able to help you to improve your trading. Please click the button below to take you to my sister site.
Sportstradingschool. Where you will be able to see the incredible value for money offer I have available for my Online Workshop,

What can I do myself to help improve my trading?

Did you know that I can help you learn to trade through my online workshop? https://www.sportstradingschool.co.uk

There are some links from the above video (Measurable)
Bandicam – https://www.bandicam.com/
Snagit – https://www.techsmith.com/screen-capture.html

Download the spreadsheet – LINK

 

Links from Video

James Clear

My blog

The link for my Calendly booking app is HERE

 

Thanks so much for taking the time to watch these videos. I hope that you can take at lease one small way you can improve your trading.

Please remember to visit Sportstradingschool to see what my online workshop can do for you.
Cheers
Steve

Data Collection & Exchange Trading

I think that whatever your strategy is when it comes to trading. It will almost certainly be driven by data collection of one type or another.

Whether that is pure data as displayed in the betfair ladder columns, such as the historical amounts of money previously traded, or understanding the nuances and variations that make up the reasons why the market is moving in a particular direction. We need accurate and reliable data to make our informed decision.

I have had a great deal of success by collecting data using social media. This is a very powerful tool IF you understand it, and know how to use it. I don’t intend to drone on too much about it. But let me give you a nudge in the right direction and my own thoughts on how you can use it.

Let’s focus particularly on Twitter. Now Twitter is the arsehole of the world. It’s the most negative, vile platform that the masses frequent. it is an anonymous platform that enables the weak and angry to vent their own frustrations about their pathetic lives. It really does bring out the worst in people. You can see I am no fan.
My Twitter use has become less and less, and nowadays I just cannot be arsed to post. 

BUT, it can be useful to gauge the mood of people about any given topic. This “mood” is data, and we can use that.

Now, you may say that the actual money traded in any given market is the best data. I would agree to some extent. However, what drives that data? Opinion. Plus only a fraction of the people expressing an opinion on Twitter to Facebook would take a position on the betting exchanges. So it may be used as an “early warning” system.

So, how can we use it? There are a couple of ways.
First. Factual information. Let’s imagine that Liverpool are playing Man City in a crucial game that may decide the Premier League. Both teams are expected to play full strength teams. The market has factored this in. But then Tweets start to appear.
“Just watched the Liverpool team board the coach at the team hotel. Salah and Mane were not on the bus, but saw them in the hotel foyer on crutches”
Now that may be a wind up. But if it gets confirmed and you can get into the market before it becomes mainstream confirmed common knowledge, you have an incredible opportunity.
So substantiated rumours can be gold dust .

Another way is about public opinion. Markets such as I’m a celebrity, Big Brother etc. Where the public vote for the contestants. Even the political events are good examples.

People are more and more getting their news from Social media. Everything from current affairs, sport and celebrity gossip. Even the newspapers get much of their own news from Twitter and Instagram. they trawl though and then create stories based on things people post. Like an article about a Road Rage incident. Taken from a Facebook post that someone who videoed it posted. Or some dash cam footage. 

So it would be easy to form opinions about what is happening in the world, based on what you read on Social Media. Can you see how this may be called “data collection”? You will be reading Tweets and then use that information to form an opinion. If you keep reading similar views by different individuals. Then that may influence you too.

But there is a huge flaw with this. There is a huge negative bias at play here. We are making a massive assumption. We are assuming that Twitter is a balanced snapshot of society. It really isn’t. The recent General Election shows that perfectly, let me explain.

If I had posted a Tweet that said.

“I think Boris is a top bloke, and Corbyn is a marxist, jew hating, silly old man”

I may get a few likes. I would without doubt have 100’s of nasty, vile and intimidating replies from the Left wing digital rentamob.

is it true to say it’s far easier to be negative and angry than say something less popular? Twitter is a hotbed of anger. So if I had said

“Fuck Boris! Fuck the Government !”

Like Stormzy and Harry Styles did on stage yesterday. (2 very wealthy young men)> That would have had so many more likes, and a few brave soles may have had negative comments.

Twitter is about getting noticed, you want people to like you and agree with you. So why say anything that may get you abused?  Better to keep it to yourself?

So when there is an overwhelming consensus, remember that few people would want to go against that.
The bias of Twitter users is under 40 and male (mirrored by YouTube). 

So if you are seeking data about what others are thinking. Twitter may point you in a certain direction. The populist view. You may be think that this data is representative. It is not.

The popularity on Twitter of Corbyn, saw the Conservative majority odds drift from 1.25 to over 1.5 on the morning of the election. People reading Twitter I am sure took this data, saw the Betfair odds and saw the possibility of an upset. 

We are told what to think by the media, most are wise to this and ignore it. But Twitter is harder to manipulate isn’t it? People are easily influenced and want to have their opinions confirmed by others.

So in conclusion.  When using data from Social media. take what you read with a large inch of salt. use it to your advantage.

Secret​ Sauce?

The truth about Secret Sauce

Over the years I have interacted with 1000’s of aspiring traders/bettors and read tens of thousands of forum posts and tweets. It is very clear to me there is some misconception about trading. I am right hear and now going to lay that bare.

So why do so many assume that people who are Pro traders (or profess to be) have an unlimited supply of this product? If you purchase their products they will let you have a few bottles of it, or give you that “secret” that only they know?

I think I know the answer. I will share that with you now.

Lets look at some betting history. I want to share my own experiences, but I am sure that these theories will strand up in the previous centuries also.

When i started to seriously become interested in Horse Racing back in the early 1990’s. I would faithfully buy the Racing Post every day. This was packed with pages and pages of adverts. Tipsters lines and services. Remember the internet was in it’s infancy then. Hardly anyone had access to it, and it certainly wasn’t the marketing machine it is now.

I tried a few of these services, they were frequented by some colourful characters. I was as naive as many of you reading this are, and was taken in by the romance and story behind each selection as the tipster wove his web of intrigue and mystery.

This is the sort of thing that was said.
” Good morning, it’s just after 8 and I have just got back from the heath (we presume Newmarket heath where the horses train in public view). I saw Henry’s (Cecil) string and he has a real beauty . The talk around town is all about this fella. He is running tomorrow. I am waiting for my contact in the stable to call me late tonight. He will tell me if it’s going to be “running for us”. (meaning the stable have it “laid out” to win) Call back tomorrow, we have have a MAX BET”

That is the sort of bullshit that was peddled. The “tipster” probably used Timeform and was a fair judge of form. But the used all of the cloak and dagger stuff to give himself that air of mystery and credibility. The masses were taken in. Someone HAS to know something. Right?

When you see a horse heavily backed these days. What do you assume? “Someone KNOWS something”? They know more than you, don’t they? 
THEY KNOW“?
What does that mean? That someone somewhere with access to that secret sauce, has the bottle out and is using copious amounts of it to make a load of money. YOU are missing out!!!!!!

Lets fast forward to modern times.

Human behaviour dictates that we need confirmation that we are right. We crave that.Not just in the betting sense, in EVERY sense. Do you drive the “right” car? Wear the “right” clothes. Even go to the “right” holiday destination. We are more sheep like than fucking sheep!

Here lies a massive clue to understand trading btw.

The reason that “secret sauce” exists.

Secret sauce exists because the modern version of those phone line tipsters want you to believe that it exists. The people that post on twitter showing their amazing results, or selling their tips, their ebooks, their courses, etc. Want you to think that only they can provide you with that elusive “secret sauce”.

I want to make sure that everyone knows that there is no such thing.

Are these people are the modern version of that telephone tipster?

Now they may well have a great product to sell you. They may well add real value to your trading. But the secret sauce is the “hook”.

As I embark on my final workshop for 2019. I know that there will be at least one person in the room that will expect me to sprinkle some “secret sauce” over their lunch. On the one hand they may well be disappointed to find out that there isn’t any. On the other hand I KNOW they will be relieved to see that, in truth there is no such thing. What I will be sharing with them is a process. A way to understand each “signal’ that comes into the market. What it is. What it means, How to interpret it. How to use it in tandem with the other signals. To gain an understanding of how the market may move.

A process. Unambiguous, understandable and within reach of mere “mortals”.

There is be NO secret sauce, implied or supplied. Just a large helping of common sense and direction.

I don’t have any workshops booked at this time. If you are interested in how I can help you learn to trade. Please contact me  (mugsgame@hotmail.co.uk) and i will send you the latest availability when I have some. Alternatively you can start off with my ONLINE WORKSHOP. These workshops  mirror what I teach in my “physical” workshops and depending on the package you buy, You can get a heavily subsidised, or even FREE place to a workshop as part of the package. These are great value. 
Although there is no secret sauce included! Sorry about that!