Justify Your Trade

Having some justification to enter a trade will greatly increase the chances of a successful outcome. These short videos will give you some guidance as to how I achieve this.

I hope you enjoyed these videos, and can take something away from them to add to your trading.
If you would like to learn more about I may be able to help you to improve your trading. Please click the button below to take you to my sister site.
Sportstradingschool. Where you will be able to see the incredible value for money offer I have available for my Online Workshop,

What can I do myself to help improve my trading?

Did you know that I can help you learn to trade through my online workshop? https://www.sportstradingschool.co.uk

There are some links from the above video (Measurable)
Bandicam – https://www.bandicam.com/
Snagit – https://www.techsmith.com/screen-capture.html

Download the spreadsheet – LINK

 

Links from Video

James Clear

My blog

The link for my Calendly booking app is HERE

 

Thanks so much for taking the time to watch these videos. I hope that you can take at lease one small way you can improve your trading.

Please remember to visit Sportstradingschool to see what my online workshop can do for you.
Cheers
Steve

Data Collection & Exchange Trading

I think that whatever your strategy is when it comes to trading. It will almost certainly be driven by data collection of one type or another.

Whether that is pure data as displayed in the betfair ladder columns, such as the historical amounts of money previously traded, or understanding the nuances and variations that make up the reasons why the market is moving in a particular direction. We need accurate and reliable data to make our informed decision.

I have had a great deal of success by collecting data using social media. This is a very powerful tool IF you understand it, and know how to use it. I don’t intend to drone on too much about it. But let me give you a nudge in the right direction and my own thoughts on how you can use it.

Let’s focus particularly on Twitter. Now Twitter is the arsehole of the world. It’s the most negative, vile platform that the masses frequent. it is an anonymous platform that enables the weak and angry to vent their own frustrations about their pathetic lives. It really does bring out the worst in people. You can see I am no fan.
My Twitter use has become less and less, and nowadays I just cannot be arsed to post. 

BUT, it can be useful to gauge the mood of people about any given topic. This “mood” is data, and we can use that.

Now, you may say that the actual money traded in any given market is the best data. I would agree to some extent. However, what drives that data? Opinion. Plus only a fraction of the people expressing an opinion on Twitter to Facebook would take a position on the betting exchanges. So it may be used as an “early warning” system.

So, how can we use it? There are a couple of ways.
First. Factual information. Let’s imagine that Liverpool are playing Man City in a crucial game that may decide the Premier League. Both teams are expected to play full strength teams. The market has factored this in. But then Tweets start to appear.
“Just watched the Liverpool team board the coach at the team hotel. Salah and Mane were not on the bus, but saw them in the hotel foyer on crutches”
Now that may be a wind up. But if it gets confirmed and you can get into the market before it becomes mainstream confirmed common knowledge, you have an incredible opportunity.
So substantiated rumours can be gold dust .

Another way is about public opinion. Markets such as I’m a celebrity, Big Brother etc. Where the public vote for the contestants. Even the political events are good examples.

People are more and more getting their news from Social media. Everything from current affairs, sport and celebrity gossip. Even the newspapers get much of their own news from Twitter and Instagram. they trawl though and then create stories based on things people post. Like an article about a Road Rage incident. Taken from a Facebook post that someone who videoed it posted. Or some dash cam footage. 

So it would be easy to form opinions about what is happening in the world, based on what you read on Social Media. Can you see how this may be called “data collection”? You will be reading Tweets and then use that information to form an opinion. If you keep reading similar views by different individuals. Then that may influence you too.

But there is a huge flaw with this. There is a huge negative bias at play here. We are making a massive assumption. We are assuming that Twitter is a balanced snapshot of society. It really isn’t. The recent General Election shows that perfectly, let me explain.

If I had posted a Tweet that said.

“I think Boris is a top bloke, and Corbyn is a marxist, jew hating, silly old man”

I may get a few likes. I would without doubt have 100’s of nasty, vile and intimidating replies from the Left wing digital rentamob.

is it true to say it’s far easier to be negative and angry than say something less popular? Twitter is a hotbed of anger. So if I had said

“Fuck Boris! Fuck the Government !”

Like Stormzy and Harry Styles did on stage yesterday. (2 very wealthy young men)> That would have had so many more likes, and a few brave soles may have had negative comments.

Twitter is about getting noticed, you want people to like you and agree with you. So why say anything that may get you abused?  Better to keep it to yourself?

So when there is an overwhelming consensus, remember that few people would want to go against that.
The bias of Twitter users is under 40 and male (mirrored by YouTube). 

So if you are seeking data about what others are thinking. Twitter may point you in a certain direction. The populist view. You may be think that this data is representative. It is not.

The popularity on Twitter of Corbyn, saw the Conservative majority odds drift from 1.25 to over 1.5 on the morning of the election. People reading Twitter I am sure took this data, saw the Betfair odds and saw the possibility of an upset. 

We are told what to think by the media, most are wise to this and ignore it. But Twitter is harder to manipulate isn’t it? People are easily influenced and want to have their opinions confirmed by others.

So in conclusion.  When using data from Social media. take what you read with a large inch of salt. use it to your advantage.

Secret​ Sauce?

The truth about Secret Sauce

Over the years I have interacted with 1000’s of aspiring traders/bettors and read tens of thousands of forum posts and tweets. It is very clear to me there is some misconception about trading. I am right hear and now going to lay that bare.

So why do so many assume that people who are Pro traders (or profess to be) have an unlimited supply of this product? If you purchase their products they will let you have a few bottles of it, or give you that “secret” that only they know?

I think I know the answer. I will share that with you now.

Lets look at some betting history. I want to share my own experiences, but I am sure that these theories will strand up in the previous centuries also.

When i started to seriously become interested in Horse Racing back in the early 1990’s. I would faithfully buy the Racing Post every day. This was packed with pages and pages of adverts. Tipsters lines and services. Remember the internet was in it’s infancy then. Hardly anyone had access to it, and it certainly wasn’t the marketing machine it is now.

I tried a few of these services, they were frequented by some colourful characters. I was as naive as many of you reading this are, and was taken in by the romance and story behind each selection as the tipster wove his web of intrigue and mystery.

This is the sort of thing that was said.
” Good morning, it’s just after 8 and I have just got back from the heath (we presume Newmarket heath where the horses train in public view). I saw Henry’s (Cecil) string and he has a real beauty . The talk around town is all about this fella. He is running tomorrow. I am waiting for my contact in the stable to call me late tonight. He will tell me if it’s going to be “running for us”. (meaning the stable have it “laid out” to win) Call back tomorrow, we have have a MAX BET”

That is the sort of bullshit that was peddled. The “tipster” probably used Timeform and was a fair judge of form. But the used all of the cloak and dagger stuff to give himself that air of mystery and credibility. The masses were taken in. Someone HAS to know something. Right?

When you see a horse heavily backed these days. What do you assume? “Someone KNOWS something”? They know more than you, don’t they? 
THEY KNOW“?
What does that mean? That someone somewhere with access to that secret sauce, has the bottle out and is using copious amounts of it to make a load of money. YOU are missing out!!!!!!

Lets fast forward to modern times.

Human behaviour dictates that we need confirmation that we are right. We crave that.Not just in the betting sense, in EVERY sense. Do you drive the “right” car? Wear the “right” clothes. Even go to the “right” holiday destination. We are more sheep like than fucking sheep!

Here lies a massive clue to understand trading btw.

The reason that “secret sauce” exists.

Secret sauce exists because the modern version of those phone line tipsters want you to believe that it exists. The people that post on twitter showing their amazing results, or selling their tips, their ebooks, their courses, etc. Want you to think that only they can provide you with that elusive “secret sauce”.

I want to make sure that everyone knows that there is no such thing.

Are these people are the modern version of that telephone tipster?

Now they may well have a great product to sell you. They may well add real value to your trading. But the secret sauce is the “hook”.

As I embark on my final workshop for 2019. I know that there will be at least one person in the room that will expect me to sprinkle some “secret sauce” over their lunch. On the one hand they may well be disappointed to find out that there isn’t any. On the other hand I KNOW they will be relieved to see that, in truth there is no such thing. What I will be sharing with them is a process. A way to understand each “signal’ that comes into the market. What it is. What it means, How to interpret it. How to use it in tandem with the other signals. To gain an understanding of how the market may move.

A process. Unambiguous, understandable and within reach of mere “mortals”.

There is be NO secret sauce, implied or supplied. Just a large helping of common sense and direction.

I don’t have any workshops booked at this time. If you are interested in how I can help you learn to trade. Please contact me  (mugsgame@hotmail.co.uk) and i will send you the latest availability when I have some. Alternatively you can start off with my ONLINE WORKSHOP. These workshops  mirror what I teach in my “physical” workshops and depending on the package you buy, You can get a heavily subsidised, or even FREE place to a workshop as part of the package. These are great value. 
Although there is no secret sauce included! Sorry about that!

Steve Talks Shite No 4

England 6 - Racists 0

I am walking into a minefield here. But I want to comment. My reasons will become clear as you read this.

As you may see by the disgusting image you see at the top of this page, the subject is the European Qualification match played last night between Bulgaria and England. It may be in years to come seen as “ground breaking. It is the first time U.E.F.A invoked their anti -acist protocols. This involved stopping the game twice and making stadium announcements. I don’t want to drone on too much about how bad racism is, and how outraged we should all be. (btw. If you are not outraged by this. Please stop reading and don’t come back).

I have a few observations  About the sub humans taking part in this behaviour and also about the reaction to it by the authorities.

We all knew this was coming, it’s been talked about in the press for over a week. So there was no surprise at all it happened. It was clear that there was a section of the crowd that were clearly a “gang”. They virtually had a uniform! Those black hoodies, with slogans on.

Why were they allowed in the ground?

This “gang” were asked to leave at half time. But it didn’t stop. Tyrone Mings (who I thought looked the real deal, and we may just have found ourselves a decent defender) says, “I could hear it during the warm up”. His interview was measured. I wonder what he really thought?

So I think we all saw what went on during the match. But some of the things I have seen since need a comment.

The Chairman of the English FA. Greg Clarke is obviously a huge Harry Potter fan, He borrowed his cloak of invisibility Why was that? He should have led from the front. IF they really wanted to make a statement to World Football and show that as a Nation we are serious about this. He should have got his suited brigade of old white men together, marched en-masse down to pitch side and walked to the centre circle, gathered the team and led them off. How powerful would that have been?
Instead he hid behind his seat and let Southgate call it. 

The Bulgarian manager Babakov

So before as an outraged Nation we sit here, on our moral high ground. I think that we should maybe take a look at ourselves? There are racist incidents at every Football ground in the Country. maybe more isolated. Individuals or very small factions spreading their vile views. But nothing in an organised scale such as this. But nevertheless unpalatable to the majority of decent folk, whatever your nationality.

I firmly believe Racism is cultural. I also believe that culture always evolves.  25 years ago it was perfectly acceptable for the person sitting next to you while you were out having a meal light up a cigarette. Try that now.

35 years ago it was perfectly acceptable for Love Thy Neighbour, Alf Garnett, It Ain’t Half Hot Mum and the Black and White Minstrel to be shown on prime time TV in the UK. I say “acceptable”. But it wasn’t ever acceptable was it? How could that have ever been acceptable?

While we watched Eddie Booth who played that racist bigot in Love Thy Neighbour make fun of his black neighbour Bill Reynolds. We sniggered.

While we watched Alf Garnet make weekly references to “wogs”  and “coons”. We sniggered.

While Jim Davidson did his impression of this West Indian mate “Chalky”. We sniggered.

While we watched men with black shoe polish on their faces dance and sing for our viewing pleasure. We sniggered.

While my Grandad would say to my best friend, who was black and family came from Jamaica in the 50’s. “I didn’t see you there in the dark until you smiled“. We both (my friend and I) sniggered. Very uncomfortablely I may add.

I guess that sort of cultural racism is why we have this disease. The same media who are outraged now, were the ones spreading this “culture”. Making it acceptable.

I know that this disgusting culture has been slowly changing. Not fast enough, but it has changed. But not everyone has moved on with it.

But when I think about the times when I heard my Grandad talk to my friend like that. I feel deeply ashamed. Ashamed that I didn’t speak out,

Things will never change until people who are not being racially absued speak out. It would have made more of a statement if that old white bloke, Greg Clarke took his leadership seriously. But he choose to leave it to a young black kid who was being subjected to vile abuse whilst making his England debut. Tyrone Mings, Marcus Rashford and Raheem Sterling are all 10 times the men he is.

This goes beyond football, beyond sport. It defines who we are and who we live as a society.

That’s why i am using my platform to speak out. 

If you feel the same please share this post

Steve Talks Shite No3

What's Your Number?

At the start of my coaching program, I schedule a call with my mentee and we have a discussion surrounding goal setting. I believe this to be an important part of the process. It gives focus and sets the tone of the journey ahead.

I am very keen, right from the start to manage “expectations”. Now so far everyone who I have had this conversation with has been very realistic. But as I read though social media, it’s obvious to me that in general this isn’t always the case.

So what is realistic? It is easy to get a bit carried away. Afterall if you spend any amount of time on Twitter, you will be under the illusion that trading is as easy as “pressing a few buttons” or even following one of the plethera of newish posters who all of a sudden appear and start posting their successes up. After a couple of weeks they become experts and people start fawning over their generosity to share and their amazing advice. Seen it a hundred times. Often it involves a very high strike rate, but with a very poor risk v reward factor. I don’t care to much about this, they come and go. But I do care about the people they suck in, and ultimately spit out again. Anyway I digress.

I ask again. What IS your number?
£15 a day? £50 a day? £300 a week? £500 a day? What do you want to earn?
The reality is of course, this is all unimportant. If you cannot be consistent enough to make a WEEKLY profit, II say weekly, because if  you cannot get the consistency to profit week in week out, I suggest your long term execution may need some more work.
We then get to scalability. The suggestion that it is pretty much infinite is bollocks. In most of the “bread and butter” markets. I would not feel too comfortable using more that £2 or 3k as a liability. Getting your money into a market is easy, but getting it back out when things go tits up is a different story. BUT you can do a fair amount of good with a modest bank of £1000 ( as I have been using to make some “realistic” videos for my group)

Knowing what to stake is a real conundrum, Using a tiny back is sensible, but has it’s own issues. After all, if you have a pre defined exit position (as I teach) then ideally you should take that. However, if the loss to you is 16p, but letting it m one another tick against you results in a 25p loss. Do you have the self control to take this exit? Now at a difference of 11p you will not care either way. What about £11? What about £111? see my point?
Making the right call at the beginning when you are learning the ropes, will no doubt save so much pain when you start trading with bigger stakes.I see many traders with small banks and unrealistic expectations. They expect to be able to tune in a procession of 30 tick swings every day, When I hear “I just want to make £100 a day with my £200 bank”  My heart sinks.
Make no mistake, if you want to win the bigger amounts that you see, you need bigger stakes. But before you get to that level of staking you need to:

  1. Understand exactly what you are trying to achieve
  2. Have a clear understanding of how to achieve that.
  3. Have some consistency 

If you do not have mastery of these 3 key points, you are doomed to failure for sure.
Now, I am sure you would agree that on this perilous journey into the unknown, it may be better to be cautious and if you are going to lose, then the significance is reduced. I can take it further that that though.

You need a controlled process, be able to have trust in that process, and then be able to execute that process, over and over. That in a nutshell is what we are striving for.

If you have the spectre of the fear of losing money, or the paralysing fear that can grip you that you may be missing out. The execution goes out of the window.

Take “money” out of the equation. Concentrate 100% on EXECUTION.

I hope you have enjoyed this article and it makes sense to you. If you feel that you could benefit under my tutelage. Please pop over to my “Education With Steve” page to see the options you have.

Cheers
Steve 

Steve Talks Shite No 2

Growing up in the 1970’s /early 80’s I looked forward more than anything to the annual end of season Internationals. The “Home Internationals” were a 4 Nation tournament contested by the 4 Nations that make up the United Kingdom. England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. They were very competitive and always exciting.

The match I always looked forward to was of course against the “Auld Enemy”, Scotland. It seemed we took it in turns to win, home advange being huge. They started in 1883/84 all the way through to 1983/84. Some notable matches had taken place during the history nof this tournament. The tragedy at Ibrox in 1902, where 25 were killed and 100’s injured when the stand collasped due to overcrowding.

In 1967 after Scotland had beaten the World Cup winners 3-2 at Wembley, the Scots invaded the pitch and then declared themselves the new “World Champions”.

The 1981 tournament was declared void after England and Wales refused to travel to Belfast to play because of the civil unrest.

The 1984 Home Internationals wewre the last after England and Scotland declared they would no longer take part. Due to waning interest in these games, crowded fixtures and hooliganism. The thing that springs to my mind is; “You don’t know what you’ve got ’til it’s gone”

The memory I have from these games is how hard it was to beat Scotland, and the pitch invasion in ’77.
The Scots beat England 2-1 at Wembley, they invaded the pitch, dug up the turf and snapped the crossbar. That showed what these games meant.

 

Scotland and Manchester United centre-half Gordon McQueen (who scored the first goal) summed it up nicely:
“It seemed like the whole of Scotland had turned up to see us beat England, it was crazy… we could smell whisky fumes as we walked out at Wembley”.

Scotland and Manchester United centre-half Gordon McQueen (who scored the first goal) summed it up nicely:
“It seemed like the whole of Scotland had turned up to see us beat England, it was crazy… we could smell whisky fumes as we walked out at Wembley”.

2019

  • David Marshall (Wigan)
  • Liam Palmer (Sheff Wednesday)
  • Michael Devlin (Aberdeen)
  • Charlie Mulgrew (Wigan)
  • Andrew Robertson (c) (Liverpool)
  • Callum McGregor (Celtic)
  • John Fleck (Sheff Utd)
  • Ryan Fraser (Bournemouth)
  • John McGinn (Aston Villa)
  • Robert Snodgrass (West Ham)
  • Oliver Burke (Alavés)

1982

  • Alan Rough (Hibs)
  • Willie Miller (Aberdeen)
  • David Narey (Dundee Utd)
  • Alan Hansen (Liverpool)
  • Frank Gray (Leeds Utd)
  • Gordon Scrachan (Aberdeen)
  • Graeme Souness (c) (Liverpool)
  • John Ward (Ipswich)
  • Steve Archibald (Spurs)
  • Joe Jordan (AC Milan)
  • John Robertson (Nott Forest)

Some context. The 2019 team has 1 world class player, possibly the best left back in Europe. Andy Robertson. 1 Celtic player and McGinn from Villa who is highly rated.
The fact that I don’t know too much about the rest speaks volumes. 

The 1982 team is full of leaders. Miller, describers as Sir Alex Ferguson as “the best penalty box defender in Europe” SAF knows a good player when he sees one.
Hansen (Liverpool) 3 European cups, 4 titles, 2 FA cups and 4 league cups. Frank Gray, (Leeds Ltd) European Cup. Souness (Liverpool) 3 x European cups, 5x titles, 3 x league cups. John Walk (Ipswich) European Cup in ’84. Steve Archibald 2 x FA Cups, UEFA Cup in ’83 before going to Barcelona. Joe Jordan (legend),. John Robertson (mainstay of the European champions Notts Forest)

Then these was the subs bench ; McGrain, Brazil (big Al that is), McLeish. Sturrock.

In 1982, This squad was highly decorated. look at the players and the honours that had amassed in their careers. Remember too that Aberdeen were under Sir Alex considered one of Europes top sides. 

What about Dalglish, McCoist. Jimmy Jonestone, Law, McQueen, Gemmill, Billy Bremner?  And I know I have missed a few out too. That production line of gear players was almost endless. But it stopped and it stopped abruptly. The reason to me is obvious.

The influx of players from overseas mean the opportunities and the development of young talent from North of the Border is very limited. I for one regret that.

There is no trading angle here, just some observations that may bring back happy (or sad) memories from a time gone by. as I get older the nostalgia kicks in. I fear the worst for Scotland, I can’t see it ever coming back. I hope I am wrong.

Cheers
Steve

Steve Talks Shite No1

In my very first “Steve talks shite” post I feel the need to comment on something I heard in the car this morning. Now I have to say that I am a big Talksport fan. I love sport and I can usually be found watching, listening, trading or talking about it. (Never playing it though unfortunately!).

I do a fair amount of driving these days, and Talksport is always on in the car. This morning I was listening to Alan Brazil’s sports breakfast. He has a different guest presenter on each day. My favourites are Ally McCoist and Ian “Ollie” Holloway. Both have some great stories and offer a good informed opinion. One of my least favourite people is “Big Sam” Allardyce. This man is out of work for a reason, and football fans all over Britain are grateful of that. We all fear when our manager goes that he will get the job of making our team play fucking boring football from the 1990’s.

Over the past couple of weeks there have been “callers” on AB’s show. Supposedly Man Utd fans, saying they would welcome Big Sam taking over. Are these genuine? Brazil is big mates with Sam, I think he may have an agenda to get his mate a job. i may be wrong, but it seems like that. They seem to wheel Big Sam out every time there is a manager under pressure, and he takes great delight in sticking the knife in, in a snide way.
This morning he sneered over Everton’s dilemma, taking great delight in Marco Silva’s’ poor stats in the EPL. As Everton got rid of Sam because their poor beleaguered fans we fed up of watching crap football. He cannot seem to grasp that modern Football is an entertainment business. I think most of us would rather watch great entertaining matches rather than our team winning trophies “ugly”. Of course, we want both!

Brazil was also making mischief about Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. Saying he thought that the Manchester United job was too big for him. Another caller then pops up (Manc) and demands that Big Sam be given the biggest job in football. He kept citing that Mold to Cardiff to Man U was a step too far.

According to the ex England manager; (Did I fucking dream that???. The England fans singing the “Great Escape” tune are actually directing that at Allardyce. Fuck me, we really did have a great escape there!) The once mighty Man Utd are “in danger of relegation”. 

Yes, they have been poor and yes they have some average players. I have never thought Ashley Young being of a high enough standard to play for Man Utd, in fact there are a few not up to the standard of any top 6 team. Ashley Young? Fred? Dalot? Lingard? Shaw?

I feel sorry for Ole, there is no question that the man who has presided over the mess that Man Utd have become is of course with former accountant and investment banker with no background in Football and no clue. Mr Ed Woodward. He is no doubt very good at making money. But no so good at the most important aspect of running a football club. Having a decent team that excites the fans and wins matches.

So is there a way to make money out of this situation?

The market relating to EPL managers is “next manager to leave”
Ole has stiff competition from the afore mentioned Marco Silva at 1.8. Ole GS is 4.3 for small money with Betfair. Poch at Spurs is next in line, but Spurs chairman Levy is too shrewd and too tight to pay the severance pay.
The next fixture is a home match v Liverpool after the international break, followed by away to Norwich and then away to Bournemouth before meeting Brighton at home. I think he heeds 9 points from those matches. Can you see them getting that? I certainly can’t. I think even if the do not sack Ole, the pressure and rumours will only get worse and this price shorter.

Everton on the other hand have a home match v West Ham, then away to Brighton, home to Watford. Think Marco may get away with these kinder fixtures.
Ole is 4.5 with Paddy Power in the next EPL manager to go market
Marco Silva at 2.1. I think Ole may be odds on pretty soon. Problem is lack of liquidity at this stage.
Maybe a trade is too risky and not enough liquidity, but interesting to see how this plays out. Like I say. It’s a game of opinions.

Cheers Steve