My main focus is racing, but I have a passion for football. I don’t often talk about football trading, as there are others better placed to do that.
This is my view on the bundesliga restart.
My main focus is racing, but I have a passion for football. I don’t often talk about football trading, as there are others better placed to do that.
This is my view on the bundesliga restart.
The FA Cup- What Happened?
Like many of you of a “certain age” the FA Cup is a magical thing. My earliest memories of Football are triggered by the Cup. The very first one I remember was the 1973 Final between Sunderland and Leeds. The magic of the FA Cup encapsulated in that one match. The mighty Leeds utd. Bremner, Hunter, Clark, Jones, Reaney, Lorimer, Giles and Harvey. Against 2nd division Sunderland. The joy of that victory from the Sunderland team and fans is something I have never forgotten, it may have been the trigger for my life long love affair with Football.
Back in the early 70’s and in fact all the way upto the early 1990’s we were treated to very few live matches on TV. The Cup Final being the main one. The build up was fabulous. They followed the teams pretty much from breakfast at the hotel all the way to wembley. They had cameras on the coach and it was no stop from 9:00am until the end of the match. The passion was captured brilliantly. The FA Cup was the trophy all teams wanted to win. Perhaps more so the the League title itself?
If I go though my early memories of those magical days I can clearly recall Liverpool dominating the game, I can’t remember Newcastle being there at all! ’75 – Bobby Moore playing against his beloved West Ham, 76′ – Another incredible match. Southampton slaying the mighty Manchester United. Then onto the 80’s trevor Brookings header in the 1980 final. Ricky Villa getting the winner in the replay for Spurs against Man City in ’81. 1986 the Merseyside final, I recall reds sitting next Blues, and them all singing together, basking in the glory of Merseyside.
We then come to the best day of my life. 16th May 1987. My City, My Team Coventry City, massive underdogs up against the might of Spurs. It was one of the greatest Cup Finals ever, and if any of you support the “little ” clubs, the unfashionable teams. The ones where no one outside they the area supports them. You may be lucky enough to know how it feels when you finally get to win something. This is why Leicester has had such amazing support from the neutrals. The people who as sick of our game being dominated by the same 5 or 6 clubs, year after year. That night in Coventry it was something so special we will never forget it. The people of Leicester experienced the same sort of joy last week.
The following year even crazier. Coventry knocked out in the 3rd round by non league Sutton Utd. (That was Sutton’s own Cup Final) The trophy won by WIMBLEDON – I still can’t believe it now!
’89 another Merseyside Cup Final and then in ’90 the fantastic 3-3 Man utd v Palace match. Which takes us nicely to today.
I can’t remember anymore Cup Finals after that. All the ones I have spoke about were easy to recall. The years, the scores, the scorers. After that nothing. I could not even tell you how won last year. Nor do I care. So what happened?
Was it that getting to Wembley is no big deal anymore? The semis are there now, even the League 2 play offs are played there. It’s the same old, same old. Is it that the top teams play shadow teams through some rounds? They are not that bothered if they win it or not.
I am not sure if the 9 -16 year olds of today watch it with the reverence that people of my age did when they were boys. For me it’s dead. They can shove it right up their arses, along with the 5:30 pm kick off.
Regular readers of my blog expect a certain style of writing when they read my stuff.
Grammatically strewn with errors and shite spelling. I left school in the early 80’s when The Specials were at Number 1 and I had a hair cut like a member of Def Leppard. If you like my writing, you come back. If you don’t then you read other stuff. No problem there.
Recently I was kindly invited by Betfair to write for them for the Betting.Betfair columns. LINK
I spent hours (literally) writing this piece, I thought it contained my usual style of humour and detailed explanations. Unfortunately there were too many words, so they took a few bits out. In fact they took a lot out. Much of it was actually relevant to the explanation.
Now the beauty of having your own blog, is that you can write as many words as you jolly well please. So that I do not get labelled as a boring c***. I have decided to give you the original. Spelling mistakes and bad grammar and all. I have no Degree in English Literature as you can see I can hardly string a coherent sentence together.
Anyway, here it is. Obviously the bit at the bottom is promoting my Blog and Gruss.
It goes without saying that i am pretty fed up about this. Losing my creative licence is not something that will happen again I promise you.
The Premier League – Early Season Preview
The Premier League winners market is a happy place for me. Over the years I have managed to get my snout right into this trough. A couple of weeks ago I had a good look at it and hatched a cunning plan. I have a position in this market, which I took on 18th June. I backed Manchester United at 7.2 the following ramblings will detail why, and hopefully let you inside my twisted mind.
What I want to make clear from the start is I am trading this market. Who may actually win it next May is not in my mind. This type of trade for me is incredibly satisfying, the amount it makes doesn’t really matter. It’s an enormous and complex puzzle. It has many twists and turns along 9 Month journey. It will keep me constantly alert to what is happening in the League as I look for opportunities to add to the green column in my book along the way.
I thought it might be interesting to maybe give an insight into the thinking behind 1st trade that I have opened in the 2014/15 EPL Winners Market. You could and probably will argue that writing this after events have unfolded is pointless. But in fairness most of the factors used in the decision-making haven’t really changed.
Let me lay some foundation stones here and take you back to when I placed the trade. It was 18th June. The day the fixture list was published. This was the catalyst.
We all know there are few teams with any hope of shot of the big prize. Not many would have included Liverpool in that category this time last season. My list has 5 potential candidates. Lets look at the Transfer business they have concluded so far.
Have made a couple of interesting signings since the World Cup, which I didn’t see coming to be honest. Alexis Sanchez is a top quality player, but no by means world class. But I think the well touted, but yet to be confirmed addition of Sami Khedira will add some much needed steel to their midfield. On the negative side, the have lost Bacary Sagna to Manchester City on a free transfer. Although he has been replaced by Debuchy from Newcastle. Priced at an optimistic 7.6
Chelsea did their business early in the transfer window. Snapping up Cesc Fabregas was a great signing. Not so sure about Diego Costa though. He has plenty of fans. I am not one of them. The exits? Torres’ days have to be numbered, and love him or hate him. Ashley Cole was and is a top class left back. The best piece of business in the transfer markets this summer was by José. Offloading David Luis for £38M??? A blagging this size not seen this side of the Great Train Robbery. As you may have guessed, I am not a fan of the most over rated player ever to wear a football kit. The markets have reacted positively to Chelsea’s business so far, and are favourites at 3.
Brendan Rogers’ first bit of business just before the start of the World Cup caught many by surprise. He signed Andy Carroll. Sorry, I mean Ricky Lambert. Hmmmmm, Not sure about this. Lambert is an old fashioned number 9. Gets goals for sure, but not sure where he fits in the Liverpool team. Maybe it’s to add another dimension? Adam Lallana is an exciting talent however, and fits very nicely into the Liverpool style. The other signings look to be bit part players (like Lambert I suspect) but losing probably the best striker in the World at this time has to be a massive blow. Postal workers all over Liverpool will be relieved now that the rabid Suarez has departed to Barcalona. Rumour has it he has to stay in quarantine for 30 days! Outsiders of the “famous 5” at 11.5. They are claiming to have a £100M to spend.
The Champions are going to be quiet in the transfer market this year. Their punishment for falling foul of U.E.F.A financial regulations means they can “only” spend £49M this year. Sagna on a free, a fellla called Fernando ( I have an image in my head of a gorgeous Swedish blonde sitting around a camp fire and a playing a tune on a penny whistle – I always preferred the blonde in ABBA, but I think his beard put me off J). They also bought a Keeper called Willy from Malaga. This comes to £23M leaving £26M. The days where you got a decent player for £26M have long gone. Most disturbing are the persistent rumours that Yaya Toure is being pursued by Real Madrid. As these stories all involve his agent, the warning signs are there. Yaya leaving would be a huge blow to Man City. So with no major signings possible. The odds have settled at 3.55.
Like many of you, I have enjoyed Man Utd’s fall from their perch. But my own twisted view never gets in the way of the serious business of making money from Sport. So what do I make of United’s transfer dealings?
Luke Shaw is a good start. A bright young player with a big future. The other signing is Ander Herrera for £28M. According to Nicky Butt. They are struggling to get a World Class midfielder, so he was the best they could get. Doesn’t sound too good. But that was before LvG took over. I believe that there is more business to be done for sure. They have lost their 2 main central defenders. Vidic and Ferdinand. Johnny Evans is not an international quality defender. Phil Jones isn’t much better. There is no way they will go into the new season with those 2 in pole position surely? Any big signing will move their price. They are currently 6.4.
My thinking when looking for a “way in” is what events will move the prices on these teams pre season?
Transfers for sure. But there are lots of subtle little changes that will have an overall effect. I don’t believe the masses will be getting involved in this market properly until the final few days before the season begins. As this is a lively market throughout the season, another shift maybe the end of the transfer window. Which is bizarrely is 1st September.
This is my view so far:
Arsenal: Have done the majority of their business. I cannot see anything else moving their odds.
Chelsea: A great transfer window so far. But their business you feel has been done. No reason for their odds to move in any more.
Liverpool: They are giving it “large” about “big” signings coming. But I can’t get Ricky Lambert out of my head. I don’t think the public believes they can replace the human Jack Russell that wore that famous No 7 either. Their odds may move slightly if they sign Ronaldo or Messi. But Suarez is in that bracket of player. Their chance has passed.
Manchester City: I think the challenge for Man City is keeping what they have. They do not have enough of their £49M left to sign an impact player that will move their odds. I don’t believe they will move in either.
Manchester United: Just read that LvG sanctioned the new signings. Their non appearance in the Champions League may be a barrier to a big European signing. But the Are Manchester United. Something else to consider is what happened to Robin Van Persie last season. He was AWOL for large parts of the season. The real RvP will re-emerge now he has a friendly face backing him. When he scored that incredible diving header against Spain he had a right cuddle with Louis Van Gaal. As it stands without Giggs, Ferdinand and Vidic and the addition of the 2 new boys. They are in a worst position than when the season ended. It cannot stay that way, the Red Army will not stand for that. Will they?
I haven’t finished with Man Utd yet. There are some other details that swayed my position besides their lack of transfer activity. A new manager. This guy is a very impressive individual. He has a World wide reputation and has managed both Barcelona AND Bayern Munich to Championships, although it hasn’t always been plain sailing. The Dutch run in this year’s World Cup further enhanced his reputation.
But the clincher for me was the fixture list. Lets have a quick mosey thought it.
The first week sees the top 5 all having straightforward matches. The hardest being Liverpool v Southampton, but as most of the Southampton team now play for Liverpool it should be a home win. Man City are away to Newcastle.
Week 2 (23rd Aug) is more interesting as Arsenal have a tough away fixture at Everton. On the Monday night Man City entertain Liverpool. So points will be dropped somewhere there.
Week 3 (30th Aug) The stand out is Chelsea away to Everton Spurs also welcome Liverpool to “The Lane”
Week 4 (13th Sept) Arsenal v Man City…….nice! More dropped points
Week 5 (20th Sept) Man City play Chelsea. It gets better!
Week 6 (27th Sept) The Merseyside derby at Anfield and the North London derby at The Emirates. That’s Liverpool v Everton and Arsenal v Spurs to the uninitiated.
Week 7 (4th Oct) On the Sunday Chelsea play Arsenal and Man Utd at last get some opposition form the top half of the table in Everton at Old Trafford.
By this point with many of the top 5 having played each other, it’s not impossible that Man Utd could be 6 points clear. It’s also possible that Chelsea or Man City did well against their rivals and is clear. However, that’s not the point.
I believe that people really get active in these markets right at the death. The weekend when the season starts. When all those pull outs that every newspaper publish giving you the “guide to the season” Once Joe Public starts to actually look at the fixtures. Maybe some smart assed tipster will even point this out?
In my opinion, and I always back my opinion with real money. Manchester United were too big at 7.2. As advised to the guys in my Mentorship group. They are now 6.4/6.6 as I type. So I can be accused of blatant after timing. However I will be disappointed if I cannot see 6 or even lower pre season. I call this type of bet RvR. Or Risk v Reward. Was there any downside? Not really, the reasons well documented throughout the article. The reward is always much bigger. You could be aggressive with staking here too.
My exit is clear. Take out a lay bet equal to the stake at the best lay price I can get. I will almost certainly be asking for the back price for an extra tick. I’ll then keep all my profit on Manchester United and see how it goes. If the fixture list plays out as I hope, it may be possible to green up/cash out at around 4 or lower by the time Everton arrive at Old Trafford in October.
I can almost hearing you saying “big deal”. But bare in mind this type of trade is akin to free money. The risk is minimal; it’s a trade and not a bet. It’s very slow moving and has high liquidity. The Betfair matched volume is £756,000 and £736,000 of this matched on the top 5 at time of writing.
This is a market I will be very active in over the season. My positions will be more and more complex as it all unfolds. To help with Bet management I believe that using 3rd Party Software is a must. I recommend giving Betting Assistant form GRUSS Software a try. 30 day FREE trial and £6 a month for this powerful, but easy to use bit of kit is a no brainer really. You can download it HERE
I have spent some time looking at this match and to be honest I don’t have a strong opinion about it. Other than I will be cheering on Germany. It may be unpalatable to many Brits that I would rather see our biggest rivals prosper. But I am a sports fan, a football fan. Politics and all the stuff you read in the Daily Mail does not interest me in the slightest.
Before I started trading seriously I would go to as many games as I could, and watched as many as I could get away with. Once I became a Professional, I had unlimited access to watching sport. When my wife says to me on a Wednesday night “Can we nip over to my Brothers?” I say – “Sorry love, I have to work……” Champions League is a real pain sometimes. There is a downside to that. When i was a kid, the only live football was pretty much the FA Cup Final and World Cup Final. Nowadays there are 20 plus live matches a week. But watching Sport professionally takes the magic away. I cannot sit and enjoy a match anymore. My head is full of numbers and looking where prices are and what I think they should be. I am always looking for a “way in”. The days I used to sit in my Mum’s kitchen on a winters evening listening to the radio while Liverpool conquered all in the European Cup, drawing that picture in your head as the commentator described the action are long gone. Instead of hearing about Mark Lawrenson making a great last ditch tackle, I now have to listen to his inane sarcasm and snide. I long for those days from the late 70’s early 80’s sometimes.
Anyway, back to the match.
As I write (9:30am on match day) Brazil are 2.74. Germany 3 and the draw 3.25. on Betfair. The Brazil price has just made a sharp drop in the last 3 hours, at 6:30am they were 2.86. The under over 2.5 goals market has the unders at 1.63 and overs at 2.56. The stats obviously are saying it’s a tight low scoring match in prospect. All of the quarter final games were a very different animal to the free scoring group matches. Almost an anti climax in my opinion. Although the drama was of course at the highest level. Sporting Index total goals is always a decent guide to Goal Expectation. They have the spread at 2.15 – 2.35 (so 2.25 goals) Pinnacle have under 2.5 goals at 1.598. This confirms it’s 0-0 lol. The thing to remember about knock out competitions is if you are 1-0 down, you need to score. So sitting back is not an option. Any early goal may see the game open up somewhat. I suspect that the stats may be wrong, but I am not willing to bet on that at this point. A better tactic may be to see how the game starts. If it is open from the off you may see the under 2.5 goals price hold for some time. Remember the time decay will tick this down to 1.01 by final whistle if no goal. that’s only 62 ticks in 90 plus stoppage (6 minutes both halves?) There will be a sweet spot in this when it stalls. If you use software that can plot last price matched with candlesticks this may be helpful.
This is one of the grip games between Columbia v Greece. You can see on the first picture how the price has been consistent for some time, it’s not dropping hardly at all. This is a lay bet of £300 at 1,46 -A liability of £138.96. This wasn’t a straight bet. It was a trade with an exit position. I was prepared to risk no more that £11 which was at around 1.41. I hoped I would get at least 12 minutes before the time decay reached the point where I was not prepared to lose anymore.
As it happened there was a quick goal and I was able to use Gruss to “hedge” my position make an even profit, whatever the result. However, this gives you more flexibility. I took out my liability and gave myself almost £20 if under 2.5 and £177 if over. As the goal came so early there were lots of options. The result was 3-0 and the last goal came in injury time. I had “greened up” well before then.
UPDATE: This is what happened
A more interesting angle I have looked at is how the match will be played out. Brazil has a reputation for playing the “beautiful game”. Creative, exciting attacking football. Pardon? Think you are getting them mixed up with Peles’ 1070’s team. This Brazil ain’t like that. They are average as a Football team. The back 4, who are missing their captain Thiago Silva are shaky. I don’t think they have played anyone yet with the finishing ability of the German attack. I think the thing you cannot underestimate is their desire to win and their team sprit. This I believe will be their downfall.
The emotions after Neymars’ unfortunate injury are running very high. Did you see the reaction from David Luis’ when he scored? It reminded my of Maradona when he ran to the camera with 3 grams of coke falling out his nose when he scored against Peru. He was almost possessed. When you watch Luis play, he charges around the field kicking everyone. OK he can take a great free kick, but £38M PSG? Think José will be very pleased with himself!
Lets add to this. Fouls: Brazil have committed more fouls (96) than any other team in the World Cup so far (1 extra game compared to many) They have also had the most yellow cards (10). Compared to Germany’s 57 fouls and 4 yellow cards. The aggressive display of kicking lumps out of James Rodriguez in the Columbia match was a disgrace. But incredibly they got away with it. So far Brazil’s game plan if clear. Kick as many of them as you can, and rely on the only World Class player they have, to do something amazing. Neymar.- oh dear.
So what about the referee? Mexican Marco Rodriguez has officiated 2 matches so far. Belgium v Algeria, where he issued 2 yellow cards in a rather tepid affair. The other match was Uruguay v Italy. He missed Suarez chasing Italy’s Chiellini around the penalty area like a Staffordshire Bull Terrier chasing the postman down the path before sinking his gnashers into him. I think the fact even though this was bought to his attention and did nothing will bring even more focus onto his refereeing of this match. The fact FIFA has given him this match is strange. He issued 4 yellow cards and 1 red in that game.
Señor Rodriguez has in his international career before the WC had officiated in 79 matches where he awarded on average 0.37 penalties per match. 0.65 red cards (the most of all the World Cup referees) and an higher than average 4.43 yellow cards per match.
So in summary: We have bunch of thugs wanting to kick lumps out of everyone to disguise the fact they are not as good the legends before them. ed by a crazy guy with wild eyes. Playing a team that likes to fall over and a ref who cannot hide and is under intense scrutiny. With the added pressure of Herr Löw basically saying his team needs some protection form the gang of thugs that have been masquerading as a football team. Backed up by the highest percentage of red cards shown by any referee officiating at this years World Cup.
Sending Off? On Betfair is 4.2 – It’s not a serious bet, but if will keep me interested until something better pops up.
Think this shows the way I go about thinking about ways to get involved. If you think a little outside the box it can lead you to interesting theories.
Post Match Analysis:
Mixed results here. Got the Lay on under 2.5 goals bit about as right as you can and the Brazil kicking Germany about as wrong as you can get. There is a video of the under 2.5 Lay. My plan was to stay in the market until the odds started to drop again. I think that up to 10 minutes in market would have been possible for a maximum risk of £5-7 for my £100 stake.
This result will go down in history as one of the most incredible score lines in World Cup history. I wrote about the “sprit” of Brazil. I watched them sing the anthem, which I think is telling. Brazil sang their hearts out. Their chests puffed out with pride and they went for it to a man. Germany in comparison were a bit flat. They had a look of determination, where as Brazil looked like the occasion had taken over. I had it in my mind that this may happen as I said. I was confident Brazil would lose they heads. But I thought this would manifest itself in violence. The manifestation was actually capitulation. As the German attack bore down on them with relentless efficiency they turned into a pub team playing on a Sunday morning with hangovers. Instead of taking the mantle of Captain and leading by example or even doing his usual running around like a headless chicken routine, our friend David Luis went A.W.O.L. I almost felt sorry for him and the muppets that paid £38M for him.
This game turned out to be just about the cleanest game in World Cup history. There were 25 fouls in the match. 11 by Brazil and 14 by Germany. This resulted in 1 yellow card. This was probably due to the score. Basically Brazil gave up at 2-0.
One of the comments I made on Twitter (@itsamugsgame) is that this could destroy Brazilian football for a generation. I think Alan Shearer read this, as he said it at the end of the match too 🙂 The M.O.T.D crew were pathetic. In fairness to Alan Hansen. He was on the money before the match in his assessment of Luis. He said he was a liability. That was spot on. But the tone and the way they spoke about the match like they were talking about the passing of someone like Sir Bobby Charlton was pathetic. Never mind poor old Brazil. Hey they have dismantled plenty of teams over the years. What about giving the proper respect to Germany? The way they handled themselves at the end of the game was a lesson in sportsmanship and humility. Huge respect to them and Big Phil Scolari. A “big man” in every respect.
The current odds in the Tournament winners market of 1.81 is a over reaction. My instinct is to get a Lay bet in. I cannot imagine them being 1.81 as they line up next Sunday, whoever they play.
Great match. A definite “I watched that game” moment in Football history.
The group stages are now over so I wanted to update you with what’s happened to this trade.
You will see from reading the original post below that I had taken a position on Holland at 14. Things have not gone exactly to plan, but due to Holland going behind in the Australia match I got a little 18’s to add to my trade. I have positions on both Betfair & Betdaq, my Betfair. I traded out my Betfair position at 10, which was a mistake as it has dropped to 9.6 to lay now. But I am sitting pretty with over £750 green on Holland with no liability.
The dream scenario now would be for Brazil to go out, which should see Holland go as low as 6 if I am lucky. Holland’s next match is against Mexico, which is no gimme. After that a quarter final against Costa Rica or Greece and then a Semi against Argentina.
Holland can be Layed against Mexico at 2.18 in match odds. I may take some of that as insurance, although it;s more likely I will see if Holland can get a goal in front, I will defiantly be laying then as I can get some low risk insurance. When I just read the original post and how I thought things would pan out, it shows what a crazy WC this has been. Which ever way it pans out I have managed too get back my loss on the Spanish fiasco and make enough for a curry. Life is good 🙂
Earlier in the week I posted up a trade I had opened in the World Cup winners market. LINK
This was to back Spain – you can read my reasons in that post. Spain have drifted slightly, but I am happy enough. From what I have seen from Brazil tonight I am even more convinced I called it right. I have decided to add another trade to this market. It is important to stress the word “Trade” here. This isn’t a straight bet and I intend to trade it as I say here.
So what is the trade and why am I getting involved? I have took a position on Holland at 14. After virtually all the big teams have played, none have been so impressive as Holland. They made the World Champions and what were considered the best national team there has been for many years look poor. Their big players, Van Persie & Robben were unplayable. Will they win the World Cup? Based on what we have seen so far? Yes. But as a trade they do not need to.
Working backwards I want to know where I can exit this trade and how much upside there will be compared to my downside. Now this may sound complex, so bear with me and I will explain it as simply as I can.
Holland have what looks like the group whipping boys Australia to play next, and then Chile. I would expect them to beat both and win the group. The next game baring a Brazilian disaster will be against Croatia or Mexico. This is no gimme, but I am confident of a victory here. There are many of the bigger teams that by this stage – Quarter finals will have been eliminated. Either Brazil or Spain will be out. Possibly Portugal. If things play out as I expect the next obstacle in the quarter finals will be England or Italy. Another winnable match. But that’s way down the line.
After qualification there will be 16 teams eliminated, the percentage of the book these teams occupy will be distributed between the remaining teams. There will be a bias towards the favourite teams. Before the round of 16 match against Croatia or Mexico (as long as Brazil don’t throw their last match to avoid Spain – which would be received very badly.) Brazil will more than likely play Spain. There will be a chance to trade out either completely or take out some liability before Holland play this match. Worse case, why would they drift? Unless they lose Van Persie or Robben. But there are many variables that you just can’t take into account.
Lets start with downside. The dangers are Brazil do not meet Spain, that’s of course possible. At worse Holland could meet Brazil. But after the way Holland destroyed Spain, and Brazil’s lack of sparkle should see too much damage. Maybe a couple of ticks .
Upside depends on if Spain play Brazil and who wins that match. If Brazil beat Spain, but unconvincingly or on pens. punters will compare Brazil’s performance with Holland’s against Spain. Unless that hammer Spain I think this may look favourably on Holland anyway.
A price in single figures is very realistic before they play their last 16 match. I hope to take out most if not all of my liability and leave the profit running. This will depend on what happens over the next few matches, As an example. If I staked £100 @ 14and the I closed with £100 at 10 I would have 4×100 profit on Holland (£400) or could green up for £40. If we had to take a loss and closed at 16.5 the loss would be around £15. I think this very unlikely, but planning for the worst case is something you should do for every trade.
I love these sorts of trades. Just for the puzzle if nothing else. It makes a change from the daily grind of the ladder and racing.
As always i welcome your comments and questions.
Just to say my mega reliable imac has been in for repair twice over the past week or so. So i am struggling to record much. With a new induction on Monday, the World Cup and Royal Ascot, things are pretty hectic. I’ll be back on track shortly
Like many of you we are up to our necks in World Cup fever. So far we have found a few average trades some not so good and a cracker from one of my guys (completely without my help and I take no credit whatsoever) is in Barbados now on the back of his Brazil trade.
Every trade I attempt has to meet a set of criteria, whether that’s in a horse race or Football match. I need an escape route if it goes wrong and a reason to get involved. If these criteria I met I look for the right entry point. I like many of you were stunned by the brilliant performance from Holland against Spain. Their price in Tournament odds have quite rightly tumbled. Meanwhile Spain have gone from 7.2 to 13.5. There are two reasons for this. My exit is a bit shaky. But the reasons are compelling in my mind.
1) They were piss poor. Their heads dropped and they were out played everywhere on the pitch. The talk in the media, and this started pre Tournament was they were in decline and almost in transition.
2) They will more than likely have to play Brazil in the first knockout stages.
I advised to my group that we lay Brazil in Tournament odds at 3.95/4 after the first match. (4.2 now) They were unconvincing and the score greatly flattered them in my opinion. The home advantage my not be as good as it sounds. The side show and distractions along with massive expectation may weigh heavy. Neymar although obviously an incredible player is lightweight. I think he may be carrying a knock. he has a yellow card too. (We layed him at 4 in Golden Boot market, he is 5.2 now). Chelsea just did the best bit of transfer business since Newcastle robbed Liverpool of £50M for Andy Carrol when they off loaded David Luis for £38M to PSG. Their Goalkeeper struggled in the Premier League and was a contributing factor to QPR going down last season I’m sure. I may be way off the mark here. After all markets with upwards of £18M matched are not usually too far out.
So back to Spain. So they had a shocker. But that will have hurt. They were humiliated. They have some brilliant players in their team, they do not become average overnight. So at 13.5 I am liking that price. If you were offered that last week you would have mortgaged your house to get on. They will still qualify, and worst case play Brazil. I’m pretty sure qualification alone will see them move in a point or 2. If they dodge Brazil they will half in price. This massive hike in price is an over reaction in my book. I expect Brazil are just as worried about this game as Spain are.
My plan is to back them to win the Tournament at 13.5. The fact that Pinnacle go 10.15 is a clue here in itself. I will reduce some of my liability if I get a couple of ticks. If they beat Brazil ( I have them no bigger than 2/1 at worst) then they will be favourites.
It is a bit of a long shot, but the reasoning is sound although you could argue about this all night in the pub. There is a substantial downside as their is no real escape route. The 2 games before Brazil will give a better idea of where we are. No one should forget what happened to France just 4 years after they won the WC in 1998. I am confident I can reduce enough of my liability before the Brazil match to reduce the downside to acceptable levels and give me a huge upside.
Didn’t see that coming. In hindsight perhaps I should have. Chile were outstanding, I still believe the reasoning behind the trade were sound. but this is one of the reasons I stick to trading mostly. I am not a gambler, I hate losing and trust me this hurts. My apologies if you followed me in here.
Peter Webb from Bet Angel posted up a fantastic piece of information about the very short prices that are being found on the draw in some of the Serie A matches towards the end of season.
I recommend a read HERE It’s good stuff.
There are 2 matches in Serie A this weekend where the draw price is very short. Parma v Atalanta (again) is 2.12 and Chievo v Cagliari is 2.3. I think these prices speak for themselves. I have cut down the amounts staked to the minimum to reflect my confidence.
Bor. Monchengladbach v Schalke ko FRI 19:30 LOST -1pt
Monchengladback WIN 1pt @ 3.6 BETVC
Nurnburg v Bayer Leverkusen ko 14:30 SAT WON + 1.2pts
UNDER 2.5 Goals 1pt @ 2.2 Corals
Bor Dortmund v Bayern Munich ko 17:30 SAT
DORTMUND WIN 1pt @ 3.2 BETVC LOST -1pt
Manchester Utd v Chelsea ko SUN 16:00
MAN UTD WIN 2pts @ 2.25 Generally available
Napoli v Inter ko 19:45 SUN
UNDER 2.5 Goals 1pt @ 2.38 BETVC
Great week last week with 6 out of 7 winners and 9 pts profit.
As we come to the end of the leagues where I but up my bets I am planning to wind it down for 2 reasons. Firstly, it’s silly season. There are too many games that mean nothing, so it becomes dangerous. Secondly, I don’t think many of you use these selections. I hardly get any feedback about them, except for a couple of you. It takes a lot of effort to post them. So I am asking what’s the point? Over the past couple of months they stand at 18.49 pts profit from 43 bets. At the odds I use I reckon that’s very good. Anyway, here’s my bets
Hoffenheim v Nurnberg ko SAT 14:30
Nurnberg DNB 1 email@example.com BetVC
Dusseldoff v Bor Dortmund ko SAT 17:30
Bor Dortmund WIN in Match Odds 2pts @ 1.73 William Hill
Levante v Celta Vigo ko SAT 15:00
Levante WIN in Match Odds 1pt @ 2.2 Paddy Power
Espanyol v Granada ko SUN 11:00
Espanyol WIN in Match Odds 1 pt @ 2 William Hill
Sociedad v Valencia ko SUN 20:00
Sociedad WIN in Match Odds 1pt @ 2.38 Stan James
Chelsea v Swansea ko SUN 15:00
Under 2.5 goals firstname.lastname@example.org BetVC
Cagliari v Udinese ko SAT 17:00
Cagliari WIN in Match Odds 1pt @3.6 BET365/BetVC
Chievo v Genoa ko SUN 14:00
Chievo WIN in Match Odds 1 pt @ 2.62 William Hill
Palermo v Inter ko SUN 14:00
Inter WIN in Match Odds 1pt @3.3 BetVC
Frustrating week that gave a small loss of 1.8 points. I should have added the bent game of Atalanta v Bologna to guarantee a couple a couple of points profit 🙂
My mate just rang me with something he had spotted in a Serie A match.
Serie A – Atalanta v Bologna
The draw is 2.58 – which is very short. Out of £83,361 traded in the match odds on Betfair £79,354 of it is on the draw. 95.2% of the amount traded in match odds In from 3.2
The correct scores as you would expect as they are all connected have similar patterns as have unders/overs
0-0 has 68% of the amount traded in the CS market matched on it.
I don’t know what you guys think. But I think it stinks. Whatever the trading opportunities it throws up I won’t be adding to it.
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