I just wanted to share with you what I said to the readers of the Inside Track this weekend. This is the “heads up section”
The Weekend Heads Up Well last weekend saw some excellent results on the heads up. Here is what I have this weekend: Something has caught my eye. In Serie A Palermo v Bologna are playing on Sunday, They have the 3rd highest volume traded on any of the weekends football matches in the 4 big leagues in match odds. 3 times more than Stoke v Man Utd on same day hmmmmmm. Palermo at 2.08 is where it’s at. I am tempted to steam into this in a big way. But this stinks. Big time. So who knows what is going on. Usually on a bent game the draw is the favoured bet. Anyway thought I’d share that. The other movers i think may be. Southampton at home to West Ham Utd currently @ 1.93. The other one I like is Everton @ 1.47. I think they will drift.
Southampton moved in form the 1.93 I advised into 1.80 – 13 ticks
Everton drifted to 1.53 from 1.47 – 6 ticks
Palermo went off at 1.8. I didn’t advise this, but once the confirmation came it as a no brainer really if you were watching it. This morning it was 2.04. A 24 tick move. very strange! But I saw it coming so feeling pretty smug about that. Sorry.
So if you haven’t signed up for the FREE, NO CATCH, NO SPAM bulletin, you need to be asking yourself why not. I have gave out trades over the last 3 weekends that have made over 80 ticks!
These are BIG TICKS. In a high liquidity slow moving market, low risk market.
A very quiet weekend. As I said last week the back end of the season has so many “meaningless matches”. A bit of a set back last week after the banker Man Utd let us down.
Here’s this weeks bets:
Everton v QPR ko Sat 15:00
BTTS “YES” 1 pt @ 1.95 VCBET
Everton wins 2-0 LOSS 1pt
Levante v Deportivo ko SAT 17:00
Levante Win 2pts @ 2.25 generally or 2.3 exchanges
Deportivo win 4-0 – incredible LOSS 2pts
Lazio v Juventus ko MON: 19:45
Lazio DNB 2pts @ 3 VCBet, Hills, Bet365
Juventus win 2-0 LOSS 2pts
Schalke v Leverkusen ko SAT 17:30
Leverkusen 2-0 up until 71 minutes. Have a player sent off and a penalty 3 minutes from time ends 2-2. I traded out my liability at 0-2 so no damage but LOSS 1pt
Leverkusen win. 1 pt @ 3.2 Betdaq
Stuttgart v Mgladbach ko SUN 14:30
Over 2.5 goals 1pt @ 2.25 VCBet
2-0 after 34 minutes I took out my liability at 1.23. Ended 2-0 LOSS 1pt
Very poor weekend, how much was due to end of season results, bad luck or poor decisions when choosing the bets I don’t know. I suspect poor decisions on my behalf. A loss of 7 pts this week takes the 4 week profit down to 9.41 pts. The point of value betting is it’s a long term game. The idea is if you are consistently getting good value you win in the long term. Setbacks like this are inevitable, just like willing every match is. It’s the long term view that’s important.
f you want to see how to get the best out of my trades see HERE
Exeter 2:10 Molon Labe 9/2: 5.4 stop loss 6.8
Exeter 3:10 Quarl Ego 9/2: 5.9 – stop loss 7.2
Kempton 5:00: Homeward Strut 8/1: 8.6 stop loss 10.5
The first race was plagued with non runners. This pretty much doomed the trade. As you’ll see in the preview video not all of my bet was matched. But it goes down in the results anyway. The 3 non runners had a combined reduction factor of 31.3% – This reduced the odds on our runner to 3.71. When i got to the live shows it was 4.5. I closed at that for a loss of £17.
The second runner was interesting.3:10 exeter Quarl Ego. Even 7 mins out it was 5.2. (see pic) My trade was cancelled, unmatched. It then drifted past the 5.9 I offered. This is why I keep going on about being on the right side of the momentum. (See preview video at 11:09 I explain this again)
It goes down as no bet.
The final trade was the best trade ever advised on this blog. 5:00 Kempton had Homeward Strut at 8.6. It was 6 when the on course market opened. I closed just before the off at 3.85. It was relentless. A huge £117 profit!
Gives us £171 profit just 2 days into the month.
I hope you watched the preview video, I got more right than wrong, plus a couple of real howlers! MG
The first match to get underway was Inter v Juventus. This was always going to be a tough one. Advised at 2.45 – It drifted out to 2.8 on Betfair and 2.7 on VCBet. Juventus scored after 3mins. This put us on the back foot from the start. Inter equalised after 54 mins. I though we were in with a shout. Unfortunately this was short lived as Juve got a 2nd and held on until the end. A loss of 2 pts.
The “Banker” of the week was Bayer Leverkusen away to Dusseldorf. I said in my initial analysis that I thought we were getting 10/11 for a 4/9 shot. After taking the lead after 22 mins I was disappointed to see it 1-1 at HT. I didn’t take too long for Leverkusen to find their rhythm after the break. It ended 1-4. A profit of 2.73 points
The other Bundesliga match was Freiburg v Borussia MGB. 0-0 at HT I feared the worst. My fears were founded as it ended 2-0, with the 2nd goal coming in injury time. These bets are based on value. They sometimes lose. This is such an occasion. A Loss of 2 pts
Things move so fast in blogland. I started writing the blog in the middle of February, so this is the first full month.
The blog has had 7,500 visits and 16,500 page views in March. I launched a few new ideas into the blog this month. The Portfolio Bets, Polls and The “Inside track” bulletin. The Racing trades were stopped, and then started again after the Betfair crash on 9th March. I launched my YouTube channel and started to record some trading videos. Continue reading →
Three weeks in for the Portfolio bets and 3 weeks of profit. Currently standing at 13.15 points it’s been a great start. I am mindful that as the season draws to an end, we are coming to a point where some matches have no meaning whatsoever. Teams that have no chance of Euro qualification or are not involved in a relegation tussle. The Spanish and Italian leagues are of particular concern. We are not quite there yet, I hope to squeeze a few more weeks profit out first.
This Weekends Bets Premier League:
Aston Villa v Liverpool: K.O 13:30 Sunday
Villa have been woeful, but there have been signs of a revival. Liverpool as so inconsistent. The tipping point for this bet is the midweek World Cup matches. Most of the Liverpool squad have been spread all over the World. This travelling must have an impact. This is a value call.
Bet: Aston Villa – Draw No Bet. (DNB) Stake 1pt Corals @ 4 is by far the best price.
Freiburg v Borussia Monchengladbach K.O. Sat 14:30
I have the 3 season average for these grade of team at 1.53. The more recent last 10 games average is 1.73. The last 3 H2H matches show that 2/3 had more than 2.5 goals. I think we are getting enough advantage in value to take this on.
Bet: Over 2.5 Goals. Stake: 2 pts @ 2.12 with Pinnacle
Dusseldorf v Bayer Leverkusen K.O. Sat: 14:30
Leverkusen are very strong against the weakest grade D teams as you would expect. Only 1 defeat in the last 10 matches and 7 victories. I think we getting 10/11 for what is a true 4/9 chance.
Bet: Bayer Leverkusen Away win in Match Odds Market. 3 pts @ 1.91 Corals
Vallacano v Malaga K.O. Sat 15:00
Malaga have only been beaten twice in the last 10 matches against similar graded opposition . The re is actually value in a straight away win. But erring on the side of caution I have decided to go with a DNB call for Malaga.
Bet: Malaga DNB: Stake 1 pt @3.5 Corals
Levante v Sevilla K.O 21:00 Sat
The last 10 Levante home games against similar graded opposition has seen them lose twice. Sevilla have managed only 1 away in 10 against similar a similar grade. I think a DNB @ 2.55 is generous.
Bet: Levante DNB 2 pts @ 2.55 VCBet.
Inter v Juventus
The top game in Serie A this weekend, if not Europe. Bothe these teams are A grade. When playing Grade A teams at home Inter have won 5/10. Where Juventus have managed to win on 3/10 away. I have this at 2.12 on my 3 season sheet and 2.38 for the last 10 grade v grade matches. The match odds from Inter are 3.54. I like the DNB option as it gives a little insurance, at 2.45 we are getting the draw for free. It may not give spectacular gains, but a slow steady drip of profits while protecting your bank is smart betting.
Into our 3rd week of the Portfolio bets. Winning weeks of 4.1 & 4.82 points have set the bar high. This week I added another new bet into the Portfolio; Under / Over 2.5 goals. There is a guide to how this bet is structured HERE.
The bets are in by League, so watch out for K.O times as they are spread out all over the weekend. All match K.O. times are GMT.
Napoli v Atalanta Betfair/ Betdaq say KO is 2:00pm Sunday- Oddschecker say it’s 19:46 Sunday. I don’t know which is correct.
BET: BTTS “YES” -Stake 2 pts @ 2.15 – best price now is Ladbrokes 2.15 may get better on exchanges later on into WE
Review: Well we only had to wait 32 mins to land this one. Ended 3-2
Roma v Parma KO. 19:45 Sun
BET: UNDER 2.5: Stake 1pt. @ 2.39 Pinnacle ( A must have account) No limits, they let you win Betdaq are 2.43, but gappy so may get better
Review: An early goal had me nervous, but as the game wore on was feeling more confident, a 2nd goal at 70 mins had me sweating for 20+ mins. Finished 2-0
Torino v Lazio KO 19:45 Sun
BET: BTTS “NO” – Stake 2pts @ 1.91 Paddy Power 1.98 Betdaq (may get better)
Review: 1-0. A early red card for Lazio and a late goal for Torino
Nurnburg v Shalke KO 14:30 Sat
BET: BTTS “YES” – Stake email@example.com Stan James. 1.72 Betdaq but bigger if queue money
Review: When I was looking at this match I thought there were goals. I had BBTS at 1.73 and Over 2.5 at 1.91. I though it a safer bet to go for BTTS. I got it wrong. It was 3-0
Review: 1st Goal just before HT. The at 70 mins odds we 1.2. I considered trading some out. Missed that and at 75 mintues it went 1-1. I knew we were in danger then I stuck in a bet at 1.15 in the last 6 mins. I had 50p matched when the 3rd goal went in. Own goal at 87 minutes. Grrrrrrr. Close but no cigar
1st was Freiburg v Wolfsburg on Friday night and a BTTS “Yes” trade. A great start after Freiburg scored after 2 mins, 5 mins later it was 1-1 and the bet was landed for a 1pt profit. The game finished 2-5. In my write up I made reference to Freiburgs’ “leaky” defence. Crikey, it was leaky wasn’t it?
Second match was in Serie A; Udinese v Roma and we were hoping for a Draw/Home outcome. Roma took the lead in the 21st minute. Udinese looked lack lustre and I feared we would lose this one even then. It was still 0-1 at HT and the bet lost. In the 2nd half Udinese pulled a goal back, then had a player sent off. Ended 1-1. A loss of 1pt.
Next Cagliari v Sampdoria. We had a HT/FT Home/Home and 2pts riding on it. Cagliari scored after 18 mins and held on until HT. There were plenty of changes to lock in some profit on this game, before HT and after. With half the bet in the bag the rest was downhill. After the 2nd goal after 52 minutes it seemed unlikely we would lose on this. It ended 3-1 with Sampdoria scoring a late consolation goal. A cracking 6.2 points profit.
Short after this was Hannover 96 v Eintract Frankfurt in the German Bundesliga. We were hoping for a BTTS “NO” outcome and had 1pt on it. In these matches you just keep checking live score and hope you see 0-0. Well I did, and I did. It ended 0-0. Another 1.62 points in the old satchel.
Last up on Sunday night was another Serie A match between Lazio and Fiorentina. I had this as Lazio DNB. A new one for the Portfolio. When Fiorentina scored after 21 mins I knew we were up against it. The 2nd goal shortly after HT sealed our fate. A loss of 3pts on my banker.
So overall a profit of 4.82 points adding to the 4.1 last week for overall total of 9.82 points. Continue reading →