New Direction?

A rare post on the blog. My best intentions to post more keeps getting swallowed up with other commitments. I had another induction day for my Mentorship Program on Monday, and settling in all the new “recruits” has been my priority. My own trading has taken a real back seat, which is something I am enjoying. I always find if I take a break I come back stronger. The other thing I have made a conscious decision to do is reduce my bank to a level that many of you have. I want to “keep it real”. I want to show you how it’s possible to profit from the Betfair exchange using a level of staking that many can actually aspire to.

You may have seen me pop up on the Betfair site. I was asked to represent GRUSS in their Vendor Apps. Promotion SEE IT HERE and didn’t hesitate. My page/videos are not finished yet. (2nd Aug) There was a serious amount of photoshopping required!

What this program is about is Betfair having a real go at promoting the EXCHANGE!!!!! I’ll repeat that in case you thought you mis read it. EXCHANGE. This is very welcome, and something I am 100% behind. As many of you know using software is essential to get the best from the exchange “experience”.

GRUSS is a program I have used since the early days. I found the Excel capabilities simple to get to grips with,so all my automated, triggered betting has been done through GRUSS. I also used the multiple tabs to manage my overnight Football trades via a VPS. However, I couldn’t get on with the ladder interface.

My involvement with GRUSS has enabled me to influence some changes within the program. You will be seeing these more and more as time goes on. I have Gary Russell chained to his desk working hard to take what is already an excellent program to another level. I am working on a series of videos to show you around GRUSS and all the configuration settings I use, plus the ones I don’t.

Trading software is about visualising the information that Betfair makes available. You need to display the relevant indicators that let you understand what the market is doing, and more Importantly what it is going to do.

The video I am going to show you now has lots of the new features that are in the next version of GRUSS. This release is imminent, so keep a look out for it. (I’ll make a new post the day it is available with a video walkthrough). With the 30 day FREE trial and £6 a Month after it’s a real bargain. You can Download it HERE.

So let’s get on with it.

You will see straight away that it’s very easy to identify this as a stable market.

There are 2 indicators that I use to show this here. First is the Last price Matched Candlesticks. Each of these black bars are added when money is matched at these odds. The vast majority of these candlesticks have been matched at 2 prices – 2.04 and 2.06. The 2nd indicator is the green shading. This indicates when the money was matched. (I have my settings at the default 60 seconds, this can be changed in settings in the new version of GRUSS). The Green shading backs up what the candlesticks are saying. Shading can show you the range, but the candlesticks can be used as a volatility indicator. I really like this. The candlesticks can also be configured for thickness so you can get them looking how you want them.

What attracts me to this position is the amount of traded volume around these 3 or 4 price points. The prices between 2.0 – 2.06 on Whitey O”Gwaun account for 60% of all money matched on this horse and 44% of the TOTAL MARKET. I believe this is significant.

I have an exit. I plan to lay this horse, there is an long term trend that indicates there is pressure on it (you can see that by the traded volume beneath 2.0. The cross over is also significant, as it’s difficult to break through that. The clincher is the fact that the market is very stable and for me to lose it would need to break through the large amount of traded volume and the crossover. It hasn’t managed it yet.

My exit should the trade go against me is 1.98. I have £800 liability at the beginning of the video. My maximum loss is £20.20. That’s my line in the sand. The point I will take the loss. If I am unlucky the odds will jump past me and I may lose more. But the point of finding such a stable place is just that. It’s stable!!!!

I never felt at any time during this trade i was in danger of posting a loss. If your trading like this, it’s a good idea to keep a look out for any movers influencing the market that will change the stability of your runner.

Hope that was useful. If you have any questions to comments I am happy to help with them. As I say, the new version of GRUSS will be available very soon. I am looking forward to be able to show you around it.

The 2 dates I released for the last 2 Mentorship inductions are filling up and October does not have too many slots available. If you are interested you can see what it involves HERE and read about what people say about it HERE.

Have a great weekend – Steve

 

Big Storm Coming: Topical Trading

Although it may appear I am neglecting the blog. I can assure you it’s really not the case. I have a catalogue of excuses. A couple of “housekeeping” items to begin with.

You will notice that I have changed trading software. I have happily used Bet Angel for many years as you will have seen from all my videos. It has served me well over the years. To change was not a decision I made lightly.

I was offered the chance to help Gary & Mark Russell develop their Gruss- Betting Assistant trading software. GRUSS has an excellent reputation within the trading community. Some of you may know that I have been a long term user, but primarily for my triggered betting through Excel. The prospect of being involved with this project and having real influence to shape a trading platform into what think is important when trading was something quiet exciting. The version I am using is due for release very soon. Having a Pro trader (and mentorship group) on tap to try out new ideas has to be good right? Expect a constant stream of improvements and innovations over the next few months in GRUSS. I have Gary chained to his desk. 🙂

I am and will be promoting GRUSS. You will know that I do not and will not promote anything that I do not use or think is unto the job and is good value. Every tool I use makes money. If it doesn’t I don’t use it. If you want to try GRUSS (Bare in mind this version is in development, but due for release very soon) You can get a FREE 30 day trial. The cost is then £6 a month or £60 a year. You can go to the Download page HERE

Anyway, enough waffle. Here’s the trade.

The horse I was trading was called Big Storm Coming. Considering that most of the UK has been having some pretty spectacular thunders storms this weekend I had a chuckle to myself.

The race was a 1m Apprentice handicap at Haydock. Low grade and high volatility. But these are sometimes good conditions for a swing trade. As long as you are realistic with staking. It’s not always possible to create huge green positions. I am reluctant to stake aggressively as it’s not getting matched that is usually the problem. Try getting out when the market moves against you. It’s important to realise that the money offered up in the columns will disappear very quickly and leave you high and dry. These type of races are sometimes the worst for this. I think the truth is many of us would be very happy to make a modest £10 a race.

My entry was triggered by what I consider to be a strong signal. That was that Kuwait Star had moved through the cross over at 4 and had some momentum. Despite this move Big Storm Coming was holding firm against it. This is often a key signal. Added to this it was breaking though the end of it’s range. I opened a position by Backing at 2.84. As KS wobbled a little I added to the trade again at 2.84. 2:08 into the video I could have taken a profit of £17 by closing at 2.72. But why would I want to? It was going well and the others were not really opposing me.

In hindsight (trading in hindsight is a beautiful thing), the warning signs were there. I stayed in the trade longer than the Mother in law after Sunday dinner, It wasn’t until it had gone into a negative position that I closed. A loss of £5.56. Now this is something quite important. The trade was over. That’s it. No regrets (that I want to admit). No drama and no baggage moving forward. just a quick re assessment of the market and a fresh trade.

It was clear that the positive pressure against BSC may force this drift to keep going. Momentum in swing trading is very powerful. The candlesticks are a good way of gauging momentum. This is something I will be talking about over the next few weeks for sure.

As the momentum stars to build at around 3:50 on the video I take a position with a Lay bet at 2.94. Cross Overs are a powerful influence in how odds behave. Just as they are difficult for odds moving onto them to penetrate. This is the opposite for odds just below them. Behaving almost like a black hole. Often once the odds move close to a crossover point, any weakness will be exposed. it’s almost inevitable they will get sucked over into the next tick size. This is exactly what happens here. By the time it breaks though the magical “3.0” I have £600’s worth of Lay bets matched.

As always I want to protect my position and ensure I do not lose. So I place a back bet in at 3.15 for £200. This gives me a little more space to breathe. and moves my scratch position form 3.05 to 2.94. The possibility of walking away with a loss was now banished.

My next plan is to scalp another 2 or 3 ticks. You could say that if I had left my money in and not took it out at 3.15 I would have been better off. For sure. But this real and with my real money. So caution was always in the forefront of my thinking.

I now stick the back bets to close my trades in at 3.23 and 3.3. To give myself another couple of ticks ad the money starts to get taken at 3.25 I lay ay 3.2. Then again on both sides of the book. There isn’t a huge amount to get though. As you can see by the candlesticks the price is stable between 3.2 and 3.25.

Between 5:30 and 5:45 on the video there was a fraction over 6k matched on BSC. All of it was matched at 3.2 and 3.25. It’s hard to make these sorts of calculations in real time. But reading the market by using the traded volumes and candlesticks these opportunities become clearer.

On closing the trade the book stands at green of £43.07. It wasn’t all plain sailing, but trades seldom are. I think there are a couple of things that you can take away from this trade.

As always I welcome any questions or comments. Keep a look out for the new developments in GRUSS.

If you want to keep up to date with what I am doing (how exciting is that?) and get the odd exclusive video to download. Subscribe to my newsletter in the box on the right. Your email is safe with me. There is nothing I detest more that getting shite in my mailbox. Rest assured I wouldn’t be doing that to you.

Now booking for October and November dates in my mentorship program.

 

 

 

 

If Your Opening Trade Isn’t a Success – Try Again

One of the things I constant say is that if you open a trade and it hits the point where you decide it is past where you “drew the line”. You should close and take the loss. There HAS to be a point whenever you open a  trade that you have this imaginary line. The more inexperience you have, the less flexible it should be. One one gets it right every single time. But in this type of trading you need to kiss a lot of ugly girls (or boys) before you find a nice one.

Taking a loss is something I am very keen to promote among my Mentorship group. Where many traders go wrong is in their inability to “let go” of a bad trade. If you hang on too long it gets out of control. If your opening position is correct then you loss will always be under control should things go badly.

This race is from Lingfield and a maiden race. There are plenty of runners but not many serious players. The favourite is Felwah and is trading at around 2.36 Highly Excited is at 4.6 and the the next 3 runners are around 11-13. When I first assessed the race I couldn’t see a way in, but eventually talked myself into opening a trade. at 1:10 into the video I open up a back trade at 2.5. It didn’t get completely matched, so i go in again at 2.46 My exit position was 2.54 and a loss of £7.38 for my £246 stake. When it turns against me I try to close but do not get all of the stake matched. This is one of the reasons I do not go in too aggressively in markets like this. Getting money in is usually easy. It’s getting it out at a price you want is the problem. I eventually get it closed at 2.58 and decide immediately to add to the lay as there is definitely some opposition to it from at least 2 other runners. My new exit is back at 2.58, but this is by no means safe. the market here is thin, and the odds can move up and down this part of the range very easily.  I hope the price may bounce after this rapid move, so add in another lay at 2.6, it doesn’t reach this so I move it to 2.64, this gets matched.

Have at look at this graph:

felwah graph mac

Notice the huge amount of volume that I highlight at 2.5. When this sort of massive volume hits the market it can often change the direction of a trend. What we see here is that after an initial change it starts to come back before starting drift again. This may be a legacy of this money.

 

 

At 3:33 we have all 4 runners on the ladders near to cross over points. This is significant. There is a surge upwards on Felwah and I want to get some more money matched before it breached the crossover at 3. This was triggered by Highly Excited breaking though at 4.  There is plenty of slack in this book, which means the odds can move without effecting other odds. I decide to add to my trade again. When Highly Excited reverses I decide to take what I have and green up for £21.30. The move on Flawless Pink gained momentum very quickly and dropped very quickly. Highly Excited held it’s own for a while before succumbing to the gamble.

My next series of trades were poor. I had the potential to add another £20+, but managed to lose £8 by waiting too long. This phase of the market was very volatile. There are 30 seconds to go on the race countdown clock. Flawless Pink has bounced off the crossover at 6. It had come a long way in a very short space of time.

There is a big chunk of matched volume gathering at around 3 on Felwah, Flawless Pink is back at the cross over at 6 and it looks like Highly excited isn’t so exciting after all and has sulked off. It’s worth noting that Dire Straits has had some support too and is under 10 now. With 20 seconds to go, i am pretty much back to square one. But I don’t like to go down without a fight. What I recognise is that Felwah does not want to breach the matched volume at 3. If it does my exit is immediate. Both Highly Excited (has it’s mojo back) and Flawless Pink have both made a dash for their respective crossovers. This leaves Felwah a one way ticket north. I manage to add another £200 to it before it goes over the crossover at 3. At a green of 312 a tick, it doesn’t take many ticks to make a reasonable profit. Once I close the trade I spot that he is playing up a little going into the stalls and help myself to another £8.

I trade littered with bad decisions. But looking back is always easier than trying to predict the future. It took many twists and turns. I close the trade completely 3 or 4 times. But you have to treat each one as a separate trade.

As always I welcome any comments or questions.

I still have some places left for the September date for induction into my Mentorship program. June and July are both full now. You can read about it HERE

New Date For Mentorship Program Induction

I can now release the latest date for my Mentorship Induction Classes.

It is Monday 22nd September 2014

When I started this project I had absolutely no idea where it would lead. I booked 2 dates and dared to hope that I might fill enough places to at least not lose any money. These were quickly filled and I decided to book 3 more, June. July & September.

The whole project has changed direction slightly since it’s inception. It started out as a course where I could show how it’s possible to make money from trading on the exchanges. I realised that I would need to offer support to cement the learning, hence the Skype support. Once This was up and running it came clear exactly what was required to support the guys in my group. Everything I do now is designed to aid that.

After each event I ask for feedback about what the guys liked and what they didn’t. So each subsequent day has the benefit of that feedback. The project has now evolved from a day with support into a mentorship program, the day with me is almost an induction. I show you the methods and lay out the plan. I show you how I make my living. No hidden “secrets”, no ambiguity. You are then hooked up into my support package. I am available most days though out the day. I have a live “webinar type” broadcast where I take anyone in the program who wants to join in though the morning racing. Yesterday we had 2 picks. The first was 5.3 into 3.35, the second was 7 into 4.3. There were another couple I gave positive mentions 2 that also steamed in. I record this and make it available immediately afterwards in case anyone who missed it wants to catch up. This daily routine is something that anyone in the program can do for themselves. They are caught the criteria on the induction day, The daily broadcast is extra learning until they are confident enough to go it alone. Still it’s great to catch up with the guys, we always have the craic anyway.

During the afternoon there is always plenty of the guys about to support each other through the bad times and cheer you on when you’re doing well. Banter is plentiful and always in the right spirit.

There is a limit to how many I want in the Skype room, and how many I can realistically help all at once. Obviously as the experience level grows people need less support. The other fabulous thing is the guys who have it cracked help the other less experienced. I am at hand and very active in this especially though out the afternoons and evenings. What is also fantastic is so many of the guys involved here are good traders who have come to me to learn about Racing. They are already successful in other sports such as Football, Tennis and Cricket. They have been incredible generous in sharing their experience too. As have the guys who are wizards with Excel and programming. I am incredibly lucky to have such a fantastic group of individuals with me.

Over the past couple of weeks we have been working on a strategy for the World Cup. Although it will not directly benefit anyone coming after the World Cup, I have plans to role out the format into the new Football season if successful. We will be having a live session every evening to look at the following days matches. Highlight where we feel opportunities may lie to open trades. Then I’ll put together a bulletin and distribute that amongst everyone else. They then have a sheet with everything they need to open any positions if they meet the criteria.

One of the things I have always been keen to stress is I am not and never will be a tipster or sell information of that nature. I want to educate. So many of the techniques I use are designed to “hold you hand” while you find your own way. You can watch how I find my morning trades, you can watch how I find my football trades. When the penny drops for you and you gain confidence, the you can go it alone with confidence. So instead of paying for a “service” that feeds you tips and constantly tries to “up sell” other products from either themselves or their mates, you get the skill to do it yourself.

Will there be anymore inductions?

I am sure there will be at some point. But only if the Sykpe room membership drops below my maximum figure. I realise that the Sykpe “thing” isn’t for everyone. But there is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that the £25 per Month fee can be repaid over and over with the advice in there. the Sykpe room is only available if you pass though the induction first.

If you want to come and cannot make either the last 2 places on 28th July or 22nd September, please get in touch mugsgame@hotmail.co.uk and I will add you to my waiting list.

You can get all the details about the Mentorship Program HERE

If you want to read about what the guys in the Program think you can read the TESTIMONIALS