New Year – Last Video from 2014

Firstly I would like to wish you all a very Happy New Year!

It’s close to 2 years since I started writing this blog. It’s taken me to a place I could have never imagined and I offer my sincere thanks to all the people who have taken the time to send messages and comment. Been so busy lately with my Mentorship program the blog gets a back seat. However, my intentions moving forward is to dedicate some time every week to posting something up. I always want to be informative and productive with what i put out. I don’t write for the sake of it to raise my profile or to sell a product. So hopefully any content will be relevant and worthwhile.

Before I post up the video and explanation of the trade I just wanted to mention that I have the first of the 2015 inductions into my mentorship program on 26th January. There are 3 or 4 places left. So hurry if you want to book. You can read about that HERE.

So here is the video from 30th December at Lingfield.

This was a competitive 5 runner race. The favourite was Beach Bar and was trading at 2.88 as the video starts. Rebellious Guest is trading at 3.4 and is moving in. The 3rd runner is Brocklebank. This has been drifting and is now at 7. The 4th horse is Tournament. It is moving in and is sitting on the cross over point at 6.

Almost straight away, while I am messing about with my Gruss settings, there is a large order filled on Beach Bar taking the odds from 2.88 into 2.78. This coincides with the bottom of it’s range and the best part of 30k of matched volume. But what else has happened in the market?

The money was around 3.5k. Before the order was placed the back book as at 101.93%. Immediately after it landed the back Book was at 100.5% The prices before and after are as follows:

Beach Bar                  2.88 – 2.8  – 4 ticks IN

Rebellious Guest      3.4 – 3.4 – No change

Brocklebank              7.2 – 7.4 – 1 tick out

Tournament             6.6 – 6.6 – No change

Sensible way          16 – 15.5 – 1 tick IN

This is great when rewetting a video where you can pause and rewind. It’s different in the heat of battle isn’t it? But what this illustrates is what I thought at the time. Nothing has caused the favourite to steam because they are drifting wildly. Plus the favourite’s move in odds has not really impacted any other runner. This leads me to believe that the move is false and may well bounce back. But I let things settle down, which they do quickly.

I assess the way the market is shaped and distinguish the range I am working with, the green shading is money traded over the last 60 seconds, the yellow the lifetime of the market. It’s easy to see that there is not a great deal of difference between the 2. I would say the range I am interested in lies between 2.76 and 2.90. At 2.78/2.80 there is 46k of traded volume. It looks like the odds are struggling to break through this resistance point. In fact if you look at the Betfair graph at the beginning of the video, you can see that clearly. By the way. All the information you see on the ladder is the same as the Betfair graph. It’s just a different visualisation of it.

So if I want to oppose this runner I need something more than a range and a resistance point. Firstly I need some opposition. This comes in the shape of Rebellious Guest and Tournament. Secondly I need an exit point. My exit point is if it breaks though the bottom of it’s range at around 2.72/2,74. That gives me a total loss position if it goes wrong of £7.36 for my £200 stake. Or around 3.7%

What I’d like to see is either R.G or Tourn breaking out of their range and going though the cross over points at 3 & 6 respectively. These must be accepted as a strong signal. As it happens they both do just that. The result of all this is a clearly identifiable weak favourite that is basically outnumbered and it drifts.

As always I welcome any questions.

If Your Opening Trade Isn’t a Success – Try Again

One of the things I constant say is that if you open a trade and it hits the point where you decide it is past where you “drew the line”. You should close and take the loss. There HAS to be a point whenever you open a  trade that you have this imaginary line. The more inexperience you have, the less flexible it should be. One one gets it right every single time. But in this type of trading you need to kiss a lot of ugly girls (or boys) before you find a nice one.

Taking a loss is something I am very keen to promote among my Mentorship group. Where many traders go wrong is in their inability to “let go” of a bad trade. If you hang on too long it gets out of control. If your opening position is correct then you loss will always be under control should things go badly.

This race is from Lingfield and a maiden race. There are plenty of runners but not many serious players. The favourite is Felwah and is trading at around 2.36 Highly Excited is at 4.6 and the the next 3 runners are around 11-13. When I first assessed the race I couldn’t see a way in, but eventually talked myself into opening a trade. at 1:10 into the video I open up a back trade at 2.5. It didn’t get completely matched, so i go in again at 2.46 My exit position was 2.54 and a loss of £7.38 for my £246 stake. When it turns against me I try to close but do not get all of the stake matched. This is one of the reasons I do not go in too aggressively in markets like this. Getting money in is usually easy. It’s getting it out at a price you want is the problem. I eventually get it closed at 2.58 and decide immediately to add to the lay as there is definitely some opposition to it from at least 2 other runners. My new exit is back at 2.58, but this is by no means safe. the market here is thin, and the odds can move up and down this part of the range very easily.  I hope the price may bounce after this rapid move, so add in another lay at 2.6, it doesn’t reach this so I move it to 2.64, this gets matched.

Have at look at this graph:

felwah graph mac

Notice the huge amount of volume that I highlight at 2.5. When this sort of massive volume hits the market it can often change the direction of a trend. What we see here is that after an initial change it starts to come back before starting drift again. This may be a legacy of this money.

 

 

At 3:33 we have all 4 runners on the ladders near to cross over points. This is significant. There is a surge upwards on Felwah and I want to get some more money matched before it breached the crossover at 3. This was triggered by Highly Excited breaking though at 4.  There is plenty of slack in this book, which means the odds can move without effecting other odds. I decide to add to my trade again. When Highly Excited reverses I decide to take what I have and green up for £21.30. The move on Flawless Pink gained momentum very quickly and dropped very quickly. Highly Excited held it’s own for a while before succumbing to the gamble.

My next series of trades were poor. I had the potential to add another £20+, but managed to lose £8 by waiting too long. This phase of the market was very volatile. There are 30 seconds to go on the race countdown clock. Flawless Pink has bounced off the crossover at 6. It had come a long way in a very short space of time.

There is a big chunk of matched volume gathering at around 3 on Felwah, Flawless Pink is back at the cross over at 6 and it looks like Highly excited isn’t so exciting after all and has sulked off. It’s worth noting that Dire Straits has had some support too and is under 10 now. With 20 seconds to go, i am pretty much back to square one. But I don’t like to go down without a fight. What I recognise is that Felwah does not want to breach the matched volume at 3. If it does my exit is immediate. Both Highly Excited (has it’s mojo back) and Flawless Pink have both made a dash for their respective crossovers. This leaves Felwah a one way ticket north. I manage to add another £200 to it before it goes over the crossover at 3. At a green of 312 a tick, it doesn’t take many ticks to make a reasonable profit. Once I close the trade I spot that he is playing up a little going into the stalls and help myself to another £8.

I trade littered with bad decisions. But looking back is always easier than trying to predict the future. It took many twists and turns. I close the trade completely 3 or 4 times. But you have to treat each one as a separate trade.

As always I welcome any comments or questions.

I still have some places left for the September date for induction into my Mentorship program. June and July are both full now. You can read about it HERE

Racing Preview Video 30th May

Firstly a couple of bits of info.
I have added Part 2 to the “Reading a Market” series. It can be found HERE

Due to pressure from my fan club 🙂 I have stuck up a trading video from yesterday. HERE

Todays business:
I am having 2 trades:
2:20 Lingfiled: Vandross 6.4 stop loss 8
4:40 Hamilton: Assohil 8.2 stop loss 10

Preview Video:

Racing Preview Video

Guys I find myself being affected badly to what I have been watching on Tv over the past hours about the young Soldier who was slain in Woolwich. I am feeling very emotional, sad and extremely angry. I cannot stop thinking about it and have decided to take the day off.

This is key in trading. If you cannot concentrate 100% on what you are doing you will lose.

I just want to say if any of you reading this has a family member or friend in the Armed Forces, please let them know that we appreciate all they do for us so much. I hold them in the highest regard possible. I also want to say that I don’t think this has anything to do with the vast majority of the decent British Muslims who live in peace and respect alongside us.

If any of you have made any money from taking my advice or learning anything from my blog, and want to contribute something back, please donate a couple of £ to Help For Heros. I will be donating whatever I make tomorrow to them.

Sorry about the video, I am sure you understand.

MG