It Doesn’t Always Happen

There is no doubt that if you watch all the videos on You Tube about Betfair trading, then it’s clear to see that everyone wins , all of the time. If you in fact have more than 1 brain cell, you will have worked out that this isn’t the case. This of course depends on your style of trading.

My style as a prominently swing trader means that I have losing trades. This isn’t something I am in some way ashamed of. What i am interested is in that I make long term profits consistently. To do this I lose a few along the way.

I have said many times, and i say it on a almost daily basis to my Mentorship Group, that is ok to lose. But there are caveats to losing. The main one being it has to be controlled. Out of control trades are the bane of every aspiring trader. You know the drill. It inevitably leads into some sort of in play carnage.

What I hope to show you in this losing trade, that it’s ok to take a controlled loss. You don’t have to like it!. But there is a quiet satisfaction knowing that you are in control.

I have 1 place left for my mentorship Inductions on 28th September. If you are interested in learning to trade and getting ongoing support please get in touch. mugsgame@hotmail.co.uk

See my mentorship prospectus page here

Controlling A Loss

Controlling A Loss

I believe that this is the key skill in trading. Knowing when to take a loss.

It’s the 1st thing I talk about when I get the my Ladder trading part of Mentorship Program, and it’s a constant theme all the way though. “Have an Exit and Control your losses.”

If you know where your exit is then everything else will take care of itself – Put simply. If you watch many of my videos, you will notice that often I will mention where my exit is. In this style of trading getting it right every time can be a challenge. I am happy to make or lose relatively small amounts knowing that there will always be a couple of decent wins during most days to get the corn in.

Learning to Lose is part of the game. You don’t have to like it, but you have to accept it. What you cannot accept is out of controlled losses. Trades that start to go wrong, you think they will come back, they don’t and before you know it you’re in a world of hurt. So then “Fuck it” mode takes over. Next thing is you take it in play. ‘it’s the fav right? It HAS to trade lower” Er – No it doesn’t. So you end up losing 50% of your bank and it sets the tone of your trading for the next few weeks. If you can recognise yourself here, then listening to what I am saying may be a good idea.

So lecturing about what I call “Cuntishness” is all well and good. Having someone telling you what you should be doing while they sit up high. But putting this into practice is very difficult. Sometimes you are trying to break habits that span many years. Try stopping masterbating and you will see what i mean.

The best I can offer is to trust your method. If you find yourself in this position often, then re look at your method. But once you can take a controlled loss and walk away, you will find it almost liberating. Another thing to note is once you end the trade with either a profit or loss. that doesn’t have to be the end of your activity in that race. In the video example i show, There is till over 4 minutes to go before the race is scheduled off. So many more opportunities may present themselves. I don’t let the loss of the initial trade effect anything that I do afterwards. I am not chasing the loss. I find another trade and execute it as a fresh trade. No baggage.

So enough waffle. take a look at the video and see what i did. If you fancy getting involved in my mentorship program. Have a look HERE. I have limited places for 23rd September’s event.

Backs To The Wall

I fondly remember watching the film “The Alamo” with my Dad when I was a mere boy. John Wayne as Davy Crockett and Richard Widmark as Jim Bowie. 2 great American heros. Backs to the wall defending a Fort called incidentally “The Alamo”. Overwhelmed by the evil Mexican forces the die defending their Fort. It reminds me of Michael Caine in Zulu. Same sort of thing. Anyway, enough of that bollocks, i doubt many of you are reading this ‘cos you know i am a nostalgic old twat………. But “The Alamo” is the horse I am trading in this video.

Many videos you may watch showing trading making money leave you wondering just WTF happened. The explanation vague if any at all. I always try to explain what I am doing, seems little point else. In this video it’s as simple as it gets. One runners is drifting and the others are all being supported. it really ain’t rocket science you know! Although sometimes it seems as hard as that. When you see something so obvious it seems rude not to have a few quid doesn’t it?

I’m looking forward to Sunday night/Monday as I have a new group of fresh faced young traders attending an induction into my Mentorship program. I only have 2 more inductions this year. If you fancy learning to trade, you can check out my mentorship Program HERE

As always I welcome any questions / comments – Cheers Steve

Ascot Hangover?

The week after Royal Ascot is always an anti climax. Those huge volumes and great racing are a hard act to follow. Many of my group benefitted from a strategy that we use to take advantage of some of the big gambles that dominated Royal Ascot. But the big high profile meetings with huge fields and favourites that have odds in double figures don’t lend themselves well to swing trading. Other methods are favoured.

This week I expected a tough week. My diary’s of past years post Ascot weeks have big red lines and comments like “Have this fucking week off next year”. I usually have my annual holiday on my Motorcycle and go somewhere with Mountains. I haven’t been in the best of health this year, so this is not possible.

This week actually has been quite steady. I have picked up a few real crackers, along with the usual bread and butter stuff like you see in the majority of my video’s. I have a couple of new videos with such trades for you today. I hope you enjoy.

I also wanted to add that I have only 2 more Mentorship inductions planned for this year. At this stage I don’t know when (if any) there will be more planned. I have spaces for 28th September and 23rd November. LINK HERE

As always I welcome your questions.

 

Couple of new videos

I get a constant stream of emails asking for new videos. So I thought I’d stick a couple up for you guys.

The 1st one shows that if you know why a price is changing it gives added confidence. There is no graph or chart that is better than interpreting what you can see with your own eyes. The 2nd was what I thought may be a tricky race, but it turned out nicely and went exactly to plan (don’t they all??? 🙂 )

I am taking bookings now for the last 2 inductions into my Mentorship Program this year in September and November

Gruss & Excel

I posted this last week on a page. But it occurred to me that most people land on the posts page and may not have spotted it 🙂

Excel integration in Gruss is something I have used for many years. The reason is it’s very straightforward and I am not to clever. I am no expert in Excel by any means, and everything I have learned is thanks to YouTube and the generosity of other people.

What I wanted to do is introduce Excel to the guys who would be scared to have a go with it. There is no doubt it’s daunting at first. But you know what? It isn’t that bad once you get into it.

So what I have done is created a “simple” sheet that will enable you to Lay, In Play once a certain price is met. Big Deal! I hear you cry. But it isn’t about the strategy (that may or may not work). It’s about getting you thinking about how you could try out something and showcase what can be done. I don’t want to turn this into a Excel lesson. I am rubbish at it. I’m sure someone will watch this and manage to do the same thing with half the formula’s that I did.  There is a guy on the Gruss Forum who is legendary with helping people with Excel related stuff. I stress again. I am a beginner. I say several times in the videos that I was unsure about sharing this sheet and how I didn’t want to spend hours helping you with Excel equations. But that’s what I do. help people. So give me a try and I’ll do my best. With no promises of success! Will I share my sheet? Well if you watch the videos, there is no reason why you cannot replicate it exactly. The only reason i can see you would ask for the sheet is if you can’t be arsed to try for yourself. I have taken the time to show you, so it’s a learning experience 🙂

So what does the sheet do?

I have set up a series of cells that will show when a certain condition you specify is met. Once all the criteria is met, then a bet is triggered via Excel to Betfair. The criteria can be adjusted easily using a “command” cell. I’ll run though all the formatting, connection to Gruss and the Excel formula required to make the sheet work. I hope that my videos explain the process in simple terms.

Please don’t ask for the sheet – I am not being “funny” or miserable about this. I want to educate and stimulate ideas. These videos are a DIY kit and hopefully opening a door into the murky world of Excel. Hope it’s of use.

Remember to TEST the sheet and ensure you have MINIMUM stakes possible BEFORE you connect the sheet. You can lose a lot of money if you get it wrong. You can test the sheet by DISCONNECTING it and typing in the data required to trigger the sheet. As I did in the videos.

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Part 5

 

The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

Not all trades win. So with that in mind I have a couple of videos for you today showing contrasting fortunes. What is important to keep in mind is that each time you enter and exit the market, this needs to be a separate “trade”. If your previous attempt was successful or not should not impact your decision making process. Easier said than done eh? The second video here hopefully illustrates this.

The Good

The Bad

The Ugly

GBU

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Enough said? 🙂

As always i welcome your questions and comments. My Mentorship Program places for later in the year are filling steadily. I only have a handful of places left for the July 27th date. Please email me if you you like more details. The email address is at the bottom of this page which gives detail of the program. Mentorship Program 2015

Sixth Sense?

A new video from 29th April that I recorded.

The favourite called “Sixth Sense” was well supported initially and looked like it was going to be a big steamer. It didn’t quite turn out that way.

One of my Skype Community mentioned in our room that Mark Johnson’s horses were out of form. (Cheers for that reminder Matt 🙂 – btw Matt is a Pro Tennis trader who is also a very talented all rounder Trader. If you want to learn how to trade Tennis he is THE MAN). Having a little bit of extra information that may explain why something is happening in the market can be valuable. For example, if Johnson had had 3 winners that afternoon, that may also have an influence on the way the market behaves. When the numbers on the ladders are whizzing up and down with seemingly no pattern. Anything that may give you an idea why something is happening is Gold. I am not saying you need this info to trade, but as the saying goes…….”every little helps”.

The main thing to take away from this trade I think, is that I always trade the whole market. By that I mean I take into account EVERY runner. Not just the one I am trading. This isn’t entirely straightforward as there are times when I am not in the best position

 

Here’s the video. I welcome your questions and comments as always.

I should say that there are limited places available for my July Induction to my Mentorship Program. Only 3 more dates this year. LINK

Risky Business

Time for another video……

Sometimes trading a competitive race with many “in the mix’ is a recipe for disaster. But sometimes it can work. If you are a long term follower of mine, you will know I favour situations that are obvious and give me a good chance of success. If there are several runners being supported at various times, but 1 seems to have no friends at all. I like to stick the boot in….so to speak. This is a 4 runner handicap chase from Musselburgh. The favourite is Riskier and trading at the bottom of it’s range at 3.25. Also under 4 is Habbie Simpson and Vengeur De Guye. Quito De Tresor is loitering just below the 6.

Watch the video. You can read my breakdown below.

I make a quick and as it turns out, rash assessment of the market and jump in. I lay Vengeur DG before it goes over the cross over point where the tick size changes. This gives me twice the reward to my risk per tick.

This goes against me almost immediately. Best to to dither too much here. I made the call and took the pain. I close for a £7.70 loss and forget about it.

It’s important at this point not to go on tilt. I am not chasing my loss. It’s simply a case of a re assessment of the market and see if there is an opportunity to either go in again on that horse, or maybe another opportunity has presented itself?

This is a somewhat confused market. I like to find a weak contender that is being picked on and has no mates. The added bonus of the cross over at 6 draws me toward Quito Du treasure. I place my Lay at 5.9 again looking to take advantage of the tick size cross over.

Seeing the positive pressure from the other runners I add another £200 lay to my initial £200 lay. It starts to go in my favour.

managing a trade like this is pretty straightforward. The reason I entered was because this was being opposed by more than one runner. This needs to continue. If something changes and the odds start to come in. It’s a case of finding out why. Something has to change significantly.

At around 3:20 into the video i hit a sticky patch and my position has turned. As I explained above, an investigation is needed. When i say “investigation” I don’t mean write a fucking essay about it! I mean have a very quick scan. Time is of the essence here. I didn’t bale out here. Why not? My assessment was that Riskier was still very positive, as was VengerDG. Ok Habbie had gone AWOL, but I saw enough strength in the other 2 to carry this. Plus for me to move into a negative position it would need to break back through the tick size crossover. Which is not easy to do. So I decided to tough it out. Paying particular attention at this point to how the runners were lining up at the start. If Quito had beed 4 lengths out in front, about to get an obvious uncontested lead. It would have been too much for the B2L boys to keep their grubby little snouts out of that trough :).

So thing get better, but after this minor scare i consolidate some of my position. As it goes, there is an opportunity to steal a couple of ticks by scalping a little.

It could have been better, but nothing to complain about here.

Just to say I have now only 1 place left for the January 26th induction into my Mentorship program. next date is 23rd February, then a break until mid May (18th). Places are limited.

As always I welcome your comments and questions.

WGSTF?

One of the many acronyms I use when I am talking to my Mentorship groups is W.G.S.T.F or What’s Gonna Stop The Favourite?. This video is a classic example of just that.

This is a nasty looking 4 runner race on the All Weather at Lingfield or a ‘horrible Wednesday afternoon. The favourite is Deinonychus. (I Googled this name as I thought it interesting. It is a Dinosaur or a Dutch Doom Metal Band) I like the 2nd one 🙂

My mantra is as I have already said W.G.S.T.F? This is pretty much the first thing I look at when assessing any race. If there is tangible opposition to it, then it may drift. If there isn’t then it won’t. That bit isn’t exactly rocket science is it? So why does that favourite want to come in?  In every market almost without exception sees most of the money traded on the favourite. The shorter the price the more acute this is. Everyone wants to back a winner. Now in Betfair land, this is clouded by traders who crave liquidity to work with. It seems most (but by no means all) opportunities revolve around the favourite in one way or another. There are lots of Bettors who just want to go in the pub and tell their mates they backed the winner in the 1:50 at Lingers.

This may well be a flawed argument, but it’s a good starting point and has served me well for many years!

So opposition. If it’s not going to move in in price, then it’s needs something to stop it. In this race there are 3 other runners. The outsider is the only one remotely putting any pressure on the favourite. It’s influence at 8.6 is not as great as if it was 3.6. This is something to bear in mind. Now before I go steaming into this I need to make sure that the price isn’t going to bounce and I have some exit plan. You hear me talk about Cross Over points often. For me there are one of the most influential aspects of a trade. They are often at the bottom of a range by no coincidence either. They can be hard to breach, so if they are it’s a strong signal.

I wait for this to breach the crossover before I enter my trade. You will see I am quite aggressive with this trade. That’s because my confidence was high that I had it right. My exit? The exit is the most important part of the trade. You always need an escape route if something goes wrong. In this case it would have been just over the crossover at 2.02. After my initial £500 stake, you will see that I am making around £2.50 a tick (greened up), but over 2 I am losing around £5 stick. That’s why the crossover is so significant. My reward is half what I am risking (per tick). So backing just beneath a cross over is not a good idea unless you think you are standing on 10 feet of concrete.

The rest is just faffing about as it goes into freefall. Nothing clever at all about it. I called it right and made a few quid.

I just want to mention that my first induction into my Mentorship Program takes place on 26th January. I have just 4 places available. If you are interested the link is HERE

Thanks for watching, as always I welcome your questions and comments.