Controlling A Loss

Controlling A Loss

I believe that this is the key skill in trading. Knowing when to take a loss.

It’s the 1st thing I talk about when I get the my Ladder trading part of Mentorship Program, and it’s a constant theme all the way though. “Have an Exit and Control your losses.”

If you know where your exit is then everything else will take care of itself – Put simply. If you watch many of my videos, you will notice that often I will mention where my exit is. In this style of trading getting it right every time can be a challenge. I am happy to make or lose relatively small amounts knowing that there will always be a couple of decent wins during most days to get the corn in.

Learning to Lose is part of the game. You don’t have to like it, but you have to accept it. What you cannot accept is out of controlled losses. Trades that start to go wrong, you think they will come back, they don’t and before you know it you’re in a world of hurt. So then “Fuck it” mode takes over. Next thing is you take it in play. ‘it’s the fav right? It HAS to trade lower” Er – No it doesn’t. So you end up losing 50% of your bank and it sets the tone of your trading for the next few weeks. If you can recognise yourself here, then listening to what I am saying may be a good idea.

So lecturing about what I call “Cuntishness” is all well and good. Having someone telling you what you should be doing while they sit up high. But putting this into practice is very difficult. Sometimes you are trying to break habits that span many years. Try stopping masterbating and you will see what i mean.

The best I can offer is to trust your method. If you find yourself in this position often, then re look at your method. But once you can take a controlled loss and walk away, you will find it almost liberating. Another thing to note is once you end the trade with either a profit or loss. that doesn’t have to be the end of your activity in that race. In the video example i show, There is till over 4 minutes to go before the race is scheduled off. So many more opportunities may present themselves. I don’t let the loss of the initial trade effect anything that I do afterwards. I am not chasing the loss. I find another trade and execute it as a fresh trade. No baggage.

So enough waffle. take a look at the video and see what i did. If you fancy getting involved in my mentorship program. Have a look HERE. I have limited places for 23rd September’s event.

Ascot Hangover?

The week after Royal Ascot is always an anti climax. Those huge volumes and great racing are a hard act to follow. Many of my group benefitted from a strategy that we use to take advantage of some of the big gambles that dominated Royal Ascot. But the big high profile meetings with huge fields and favourites that have odds in double figures don’t lend themselves well to swing trading. Other methods are favoured.

This week I expected a tough week. My diary’s of past years post Ascot weeks have big red lines and comments like “Have this fucking week off next year”. I usually have my annual holiday on my Motorcycle and go somewhere with Mountains. I haven’t been in the best of health this year, so this is not possible.

This week actually has been quite steady. I have picked up a few real crackers, along with the usual bread and butter stuff like you see in the majority of my video’s. I have a couple of new videos with such trades for you today. I hope you enjoy.

I also wanted to add that I have only 2 more Mentorship inductions planned for this year. At this stage I don’t know when (if any) there will be more planned. I have spaces for 28th September and 23rd November. LINK HERE

As always I welcome your questions.

 

The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

Not all trades win. So with that in mind I have a couple of videos for you today showing contrasting fortunes. What is important to keep in mind is that each time you enter and exit the market, this needs to be a separate “trade”. If your previous attempt was successful or not should not impact your decision making process. Easier said than done eh? The second video here hopefully illustrates this.

The Good

The Bad

The Ugly

GBU

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Enough said? 🙂

As always i welcome your questions and comments. My Mentorship Program places for later in the year are filling steadily. I only have a handful of places left for the July 27th date. Please email me if you you like more details. The email address is at the bottom of this page which gives detail of the program. Mentorship Program 2015

Risky Business

Time for another video……

Sometimes trading a competitive race with many “in the mix’ is a recipe for disaster. But sometimes it can work. If you are a long term follower of mine, you will know I favour situations that are obvious and give me a good chance of success. If there are several runners being supported at various times, but 1 seems to have no friends at all. I like to stick the boot in….so to speak. This is a 4 runner handicap chase from Musselburgh. The favourite is Riskier and trading at the bottom of it’s range at 3.25. Also under 4 is Habbie Simpson and Vengeur De Guye. Quito De Tresor is loitering just below the 6.

Watch the video. You can read my breakdown below.

I make a quick and as it turns out, rash assessment of the market and jump in. I lay Vengeur DG before it goes over the cross over point where the tick size changes. This gives me twice the reward to my risk per tick.

This goes against me almost immediately. Best to to dither too much here. I made the call and took the pain. I close for a £7.70 loss and forget about it.

It’s important at this point not to go on tilt. I am not chasing my loss. It’s simply a case of a re assessment of the market and see if there is an opportunity to either go in again on that horse, or maybe another opportunity has presented itself?

This is a somewhat confused market. I like to find a weak contender that is being picked on and has no mates. The added bonus of the cross over at 6 draws me toward Quito Du treasure. I place my Lay at 5.9 again looking to take advantage of the tick size cross over.

Seeing the positive pressure from the other runners I add another £200 lay to my initial £200 lay. It starts to go in my favour.

managing a trade like this is pretty straightforward. The reason I entered was because this was being opposed by more than one runner. This needs to continue. If something changes and the odds start to come in. It’s a case of finding out why. Something has to change significantly.

At around 3:20 into the video i hit a sticky patch and my position has turned. As I explained above, an investigation is needed. When i say “investigation” I don’t mean write a fucking essay about it! I mean have a very quick scan. Time is of the essence here. I didn’t bale out here. Why not? My assessment was that Riskier was still very positive, as was VengerDG. Ok Habbie had gone AWOL, but I saw enough strength in the other 2 to carry this. Plus for me to move into a negative position it would need to break back through the tick size crossover. Which is not easy to do. So I decided to tough it out. Paying particular attention at this point to how the runners were lining up at the start. If Quito had beed 4 lengths out in front, about to get an obvious uncontested lead. It would have been too much for the B2L boys to keep their grubby little snouts out of that trough :).

So thing get better, but after this minor scare i consolidate some of my position. As it goes, there is an opportunity to steal a couple of ticks by scalping a little.

It could have been better, but nothing to complain about here.

Just to say I have now only 1 place left for the January 26th induction into my Mentorship program. next date is 23rd February, then a break until mid May (18th). Places are limited.

As always I welcome your comments and questions.

WGSTF?

One of the many acronyms I use when I am talking to my Mentorship groups is W.G.S.T.F or What’s Gonna Stop The Favourite?. This video is a classic example of just that.

This is a nasty looking 4 runner race on the All Weather at Lingfield or a ‘horrible Wednesday afternoon. The favourite is Deinonychus. (I Googled this name as I thought it interesting. It is a Dinosaur or a Dutch Doom Metal Band) I like the 2nd one 🙂

My mantra is as I have already said W.G.S.T.F? This is pretty much the first thing I look at when assessing any race. If there is tangible opposition to it, then it may drift. If there isn’t then it won’t. That bit isn’t exactly rocket science is it? So why does that favourite want to come in?  In every market almost without exception sees most of the money traded on the favourite. The shorter the price the more acute this is. Everyone wants to back a winner. Now in Betfair land, this is clouded by traders who crave liquidity to work with. It seems most (but by no means all) opportunities revolve around the favourite in one way or another. There are lots of Bettors who just want to go in the pub and tell their mates they backed the winner in the 1:50 at Lingers.

This may well be a flawed argument, but it’s a good starting point and has served me well for many years!

So opposition. If it’s not going to move in in price, then it’s needs something to stop it. In this race there are 3 other runners. The outsider is the only one remotely putting any pressure on the favourite. It’s influence at 8.6 is not as great as if it was 3.6. This is something to bear in mind. Now before I go steaming into this I need to make sure that the price isn’t going to bounce and I have some exit plan. You hear me talk about Cross Over points often. For me there are one of the most influential aspects of a trade. They are often at the bottom of a range by no coincidence either. They can be hard to breach, so if they are it’s a strong signal.

I wait for this to breach the crossover before I enter my trade. You will see I am quite aggressive with this trade. That’s because my confidence was high that I had it right. My exit? The exit is the most important part of the trade. You always need an escape route if something goes wrong. In this case it would have been just over the crossover at 2.02. After my initial £500 stake, you will see that I am making around £2.50 a tick (greened up), but over 2 I am losing around £5 stick. That’s why the crossover is so significant. My reward is half what I am risking (per tick). So backing just beneath a cross over is not a good idea unless you think you are standing on 10 feet of concrete.

The rest is just faffing about as it goes into freefall. Nothing clever at all about it. I called it right and made a few quid.

I just want to mention that my first induction into my Mentorship Program takes place on 26th January. I have just 4 places available. If you are interested the link is HERE

Thanks for watching, as always I welcome your questions and comments.

New Year – Last Video from 2014

Firstly I would like to wish you all a very Happy New Year!

It’s close to 2 years since I started writing this blog. It’s taken me to a place I could have never imagined and I offer my sincere thanks to all the people who have taken the time to send messages and comment. Been so busy lately with my Mentorship program the blog gets a back seat. However, my intentions moving forward is to dedicate some time every week to posting something up. I always want to be informative and productive with what i put out. I don’t write for the sake of it to raise my profile or to sell a product. So hopefully any content will be relevant and worthwhile.

Before I post up the video and explanation of the trade I just wanted to mention that I have the first of the 2015 inductions into my mentorship program on 26th January. There are 3 or 4 places left. So hurry if you want to book. You can read about that HERE.

So here is the video from 30th December at Lingfield.

This was a competitive 5 runner race. The favourite was Beach Bar and was trading at 2.88 as the video starts. Rebellious Guest is trading at 3.4 and is moving in. The 3rd runner is Brocklebank. This has been drifting and is now at 7. The 4th horse is Tournament. It is moving in and is sitting on the cross over point at 6.

Almost straight away, while I am messing about with my Gruss settings, there is a large order filled on Beach Bar taking the odds from 2.88 into 2.78. This coincides with the bottom of it’s range and the best part of 30k of matched volume. But what else has happened in the market?

The money was around 3.5k. Before the order was placed the back book as at 101.93%. Immediately after it landed the back Book was at 100.5% The prices before and after are as follows:

Beach Bar                  2.88 – 2.8  – 4 ticks IN

Rebellious Guest      3.4 – 3.4 – No change

Brocklebank              7.2 – 7.4 – 1 tick out

Tournament             6.6 – 6.6 – No change

Sensible way          16 – 15.5 – 1 tick IN

This is great when rewetting a video where you can pause and rewind. It’s different in the heat of battle isn’t it? But what this illustrates is what I thought at the time. Nothing has caused the favourite to steam because they are drifting wildly. Plus the favourite’s move in odds has not really impacted any other runner. This leads me to believe that the move is false and may well bounce back. But I let things settle down, which they do quickly.

I assess the way the market is shaped and distinguish the range I am working with, the green shading is money traded over the last 60 seconds, the yellow the lifetime of the market. It’s easy to see that there is not a great deal of difference between the 2. I would say the range I am interested in lies between 2.76 and 2.90. At 2.78/2.80 there is 46k of traded volume. It looks like the odds are struggling to break through this resistance point. In fact if you look at the Betfair graph at the beginning of the video, you can see that clearly. By the way. All the information you see on the ladder is the same as the Betfair graph. It’s just a different visualisation of it.

So if I want to oppose this runner I need something more than a range and a resistance point. Firstly I need some opposition. This comes in the shape of Rebellious Guest and Tournament. Secondly I need an exit point. My exit point is if it breaks though the bottom of it’s range at around 2.72/2,74. That gives me a total loss position if it goes wrong of £7.36 for my £200 stake. Or around 3.7%

What I’d like to see is either R.G or Tourn breaking out of their range and going though the cross over points at 3 & 6 respectively. These must be accepted as a strong signal. As it happens they both do just that. The result of all this is a clearly identifiable weak favourite that is basically outnumbered and it drifts.

As always I welcome any questions.

Trading doesn’t have to be complicated.

Trading doesn’t have to be complicated. Does it?

 

First let me qualify the above statement. I am not advocating that it’s easy. I think we all know that it isn’t. But from my experiences within my Mentorship group it’s often the case that there is almost an irresistible urge to solve the most complex of puzzles.

 

In almost every race and to some degree every runner will have odds that move. Sometimes in, sometimes out and sometimes in a very tight range. What I look for is the obvious. If it isn’t obvious then I tend not to get involved.

Sometimes even the obvious goes tits up. It’s then time to take action to project your bank and take a loss. That is the essence of trading. Having the confidence to take a loss knowing that if your method is correct you can soon get back your loss. Whether that be in the same race or the next, or even the next day. I am certainly not suggesting you chase this loss. That is a different story altogether.

 

This trade is very straightforward. As I say in the video I have a saying which is “What is going to stop the favourite”? We know that everyone wants to back a winner, and the place many their faith in is the favourite. So the price will naturally want to move in UNLESS something wants to oppose it. In many occasions you will get more that one runner making up the opposition, and often they take it in turns. Sometimes there is very little or no opposition. These are often the stand out opportunities to make a few quid. Why make it hard for yourself?

My first job when assessing if there was an opportunity to take a position was to identify what was happening. The favourite was toward the bottom of it’s trading range, indicating it had been steaming positively. But there were some other runners in a similar position range wise. What is important to take into account is the bigger the price the less influence it will have. So we do have a bit of opposition, but from a horse trading at 8 (Focail Mear) and 9 (Heinrich). Even in the face of this opposition the favourite Hebesia did not drift, say the odd tick which can be expected as the book has to ebb and flow. I take this to be a strong signal that the fav is strong. It has several signals going for it.

 

  • It has broken out of it’s trading range
  • There were 3 different horses that at different times tried to oppose it.
  • It eventually broke though the cross over point at 3. This is a natural sticking point.

 

I often trade the favourite as this is usually where the action is. If there is no opposition it will steam, if there is opposition it may drift. But if there is opposition AND it is still coming in, then this means to resist this opposition people really want to back it. Once it breaks the will of whichever runner(s) that are opposing it, then it usually really motors.

I though this to be a pretty good example of this.

Having a tough run of things lately. Last Thursday we were broken into while in bed and had all my PC equipment stolen. Thank God I had a Time machine back up for my Mac. I’ll be writing about this shortly. It really taught me a few lessons I can tell you.

Just to say I will be doing the last of my Mentorship inductions for this year in Coventry on Monday (24th November). Dues to popular demand I will be continuing the program into 2015. I will be releasing the first couple of dates shortly. Due to a very late cancellation I am able to offer a place on Monday’s induction. If you are interested please get in touch via email        (mugsgame@hotmail.co.uk) asap.

“Unfortunate”

Trading on the exchanges carries risk. When I do my induction classes to my Mentees I tell them that having money in the market is like leaving your wallet on the bar in a pub unattended. There are plenty of robbing bastards out to relieve you of your hard earned. Betfair kindly provide the platform for us to trade on. They are not the only platform contrary to what they believe. We in turn pay for this service through commission and Premium Charge. I will now refer to us as “customers”. They provide the service and we pay for it. Similar to if you hire a film on Netflix. You pay and then you download it. If you pay and they knob you off, then you complain and they will refund your money. Makes good business sense not to piss off your customers all the time I guess.

Anyway enough of that nonsense. I have a video and a cracking trade. I edited the end of the video as I swore quite a lot and I know you lot are sensitive.

I was looking for a way in on this trade. There was a bit of a gamble going on Vikehal. It looked like I had missed it and it had stalled. However, the way they were lining up showed he looked like getting a soft easy lead. I took advantage of this and managed to build up a nice position over over £100 green book before the off. My intention was to capitalise on this easy lead in play, as I knew I could get an easy 6 or 7 ticks before a fence was jumped such was his lead. I could enhance my £106.

As you will have seen in the video this wasn’t possible as Betfair failed to put the race in play. I queried this with them vis my twitter account to their help desk .

I said ” 3:00 Ling not turned in play. My £318 liability. Can I have it back please? I have it on video – would you like to see it? “

They replied; “We had a technical error which prevented in play betting. Bet placed before the race would be settled normally”

My response was: ” Hiding behind T&C’s is not acceptable when people are losing large sums of money”

The reply  “We are looking to resolve this shortly, any SP bets will be settled manually”

And then “This is unfortunate, but the market did not go in play, we can only settle those taken before the race”.

Now if you take the £106 green book I had and add it to the £318 I lost. That is over £400. I realise there has to be rules. But how can you form strategies to try and profit when this sort of thing happens? Leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

Ah well, it was just “unfortunate” I guess.

Behind The Bike Sheds

Fresh from the third instalment of my inductions into my Mentorship program on Monday, I have just about got my voice back. After spending what seemed like 24 hours constant talking.

My September Induction only has a handful of places left. If you would like know more about it the details are HERE – The Testimonial page is HERE

Back to the daily grind now, so hopefully will be putting out some new content on my blog over the next few weeks. My days are very full, but also very enjoyable, so no complaining from me!

You will notice if you are a regular viewer that I have reduced the number of ladders from 7 to 4. This is purely so you can see the odds more clearly. Ideally I would prefer to have more.

This is a race from Kempton Park involving lots of dead wood. We have what is effectively joint favourites from the same owner (Godolphin) and same stable, So when one is better supported than the other it is often a signal that “the stable knows something”. I am not too sure about this, but you know what punters are like, they love a conspiracy theory.

On the face of it, it looks like Furas is the stronger of the 2, Musaddas isn’t drifting as such yet. They are both sitting at just above the cross over at 4.0. I adjust the runners so that Hagree is in view as this is an obvious player. When you have less ladders it;s ok as long as you keep a check on the other runners not in view.

It takes about 30 seconds into the video to make a decision about what I want to do here. When you have pressure from multiple runners there must be a victim. All I need to do is identify the “victim” and see if I can find an exit and a entry.

The victim is clearly Musaddas, although it hasn’t drifted wildly yet, it is the only one without a positive trend. There are 2 other reasons that I like the look of this as a lay. First it has been trying to break through the cross over at 4 of some time without success. If it hasn’t managed it before now, why would it be capable now? Especially with the opposition to it. The other reason is I can lay it very close to my exit position which I think it will have to work hard to get too. Which is at 3.95. I open my position with a lay of £206 @ 4.2. My maximum loss here would be £13.00. I have my foot in the door and a am under control of this trade from the first seconds.

What I am looking at now if the possibility to add to my position. My first trade is always an opening gambit to see if a can create a little space to get more money matched and build my trade. There is still pressure for the other 3 runners on my screen, What would really make my runner drift is if Furas were to break out of it’s range and through the crossover point at 4. A cross over point if you was not aware is where the increment in odds change. In this case from 0.1 to 0.05.

So why don’t I just back the favourite? Well if you ever got involved in a fight when you were at school, was it better to have some back up, like a couple of mates with you? Or would you go alone? Well in this case Furas has a couple of mates, and they are heading behind the bike sheds to give poor old Musaddas a good kicking by the looks of it.

My second attempt goes in at 4.3 You will hear me remark that “I am not going to chase up the price”. Well Furas breaking though the end of it’s range made up my mind that i should chase it.

My dithering costs me 2 ticks. it goes in at 4.6. My liability is £1400 now and my exit is no longer as safe as it was. If I closed at 4.7 I could take £26 profit, I move my new exit up to 4.2 and a potential loss of £19. It is unlikely I will lose on this trade now.

As it reaches the top of it’s range, I wonder how far this will go. With some uncertainty I decide to take some profit by backing half my position at 4.9. It becomes clear that the drift still has some legs, so i try to scalp a tick at a time using drift and laying first. I manage a few extra ticks and close with a profit of £64.80.

The lessons are clear. Find a weak kid, make sure you are safe (no one looking) get a couple of mates and take him behind the bike sheds and kick ten tonnes out of him.

I am not condoning violence towards teenage boys, but you get the point I hope 🙂

Trading More Than 1 Runner

Something you will very rarely see me do is trade more than 1 runner at a time in a race. My thinking is if you think you know which way it may go why not increase you stake on 1 horse?  Sometimes though you can take advantage of more than 1 move and this is such an example. Once you watch this video you may understand why i do not trade more than 1 at a time. Basically because I am not very good at it! But it is what it is.

 

Breakdown:

The front 2 in the market start off at a similar price. Although there are a couple of others that are able influence the market these are all drifting. As always my priority is to find an exit position . If the trade is not going to plan, I need to find a place that will limit my loss and protect my bank. As the other runners in the field at this point do not seem to be moving one way of the other I treat this race as a 2 horse book, My thinking is one will move in and 1 will move out.

My initial position is to place a lay bet ay 3.35 on Lacan. The key to this trade is ifWannabe breaks through the end of it’s range and the crossover. The way the market overall was shaping gave me some confidence that if either of the front 2 (if any) were going to break through the crossover it would be Wannabe.If it did I expected 2 things to happen. Firstly it would quickly move down and secondly that as a consequence of this Lacan would have to drift.

1:45 – Wannabe at last breaks through and i decide to help myself to a few quid. My lay bet on Lacan hadn’t been taken, but the breakout of Wannabe gave me added confidence that it would drift some more. So I move my position up to 3.5 and adjust my potential exit to 3.3/3.35. I take initial positions. You can always add to your position, but going in hard means it’s more painful when it goes wrong. My priory is not to make a huge total, it is not to lose. A small loss is acceptable and happens sometimes. But if it’s under control I don’t worry about it at all. With this style of trading the old saying ‘You have to kiss a lot of frogs to find a Prince” rings true.

Not doing a lot of talking during this, that’s because I am typing and I can’t do both! lol I am just giving some advice in my Mentees Skype room as to this race and potential scenarios.

4:35-4:40 – After it’s brush with the cross over at 4, Lacan looks to be peaking. I decide to take the profit and concentrate on Wannabe – This would have been a better idea from the start.

Pretty soon after I run out of time and close the trade for a combined profit of £75.

Update on Mentorship Program

We are in full swing now and my new group of guys are settling in very well. I can’t tell you how proud I feel when someone tells me they have just have their best ever day or week. Better that that even is the constant results that are being achieved. I am not saying this. They are!

There are limited places left for 28th July, my September date invitations will be sent out shortly before I release it publicly. I have not got any more dates planned after September at this time.

If you are interested all the information is HERE and my Testimonials are HERE

As always I welcome your questions and comments