It Doesn’t Always Happen

There is no doubt that if you watch all the videos on You Tube about Betfair trading, then it’s clear to see that everyone wins , all of the time. If you in fact have more than 1 brain cell, you will have worked out that this isn’t the case. This of course depends on your style of trading.

My style as a prominently swing trader means that I have losing trades. This isn’t something I am in some way ashamed of. What i am interested is in that I make long term profits consistently. To do this I lose a few along the way.

I have said many times, and i say it on a almost daily basis to my Mentorship Group, that is ok to lose. But there are caveats to losing. The main one being it has to be controlled. Out of control trades are the bane of every aspiring trader. You know the drill. It inevitably leads into some sort of in play carnage.

What I hope to show you in this losing trade, that it’s ok to take a controlled loss. You don’t have to like it!. But there is a quiet satisfaction knowing that you are in control.

I have 1 place left for my mentorship Inductions on 28th September. If you are interested in learning to trade and getting ongoing support please get in touch. mugsgame@hotmail.co.uk

See my mentorship prospectus page here

Betfair & Paddy Power to Merge

So today’s big news is the announcement that Betfair and Paddy Power are to merge. As someone who makes a living from the betting exchanges this is obviously very important news to me. So what’s my thoughts on it?

Over the years there have been many changes to the exchanges. We have seen Betdaq emerging as a serious alternative to Betfair. Betfair established the Sports exchange and did it very well for many years. Since the Company went public they have been losing their way. It seems they want to be a mainstream Bookmaker and the ship is being steered that way whatever they say. So what does this mean for us? The exchange user.

If we look back over the years and the massive changes that Betfair have introduced. Starting with Cross matching, Premium Charge and the Sportsbook. All have impacted the exchange. Some in more noticeable ways than others. But it rolls on. yes, it’s imperfect, but it still works and I am still able to operate with reasonable results. Is this the end? NO!!!!

There is lots of scaremongering going around the forums and Twitter. Many think Paddy Power are going to close the exchange down? isn’t that a bit like buying a new car and then setting it on fire outside your house? It would make no sense. My concerns lie with the longer term strategy. Whatever way you look at the betting industry moving forward into the next decade and beyond. Online gaming is where it’s at. If it’s true that most of a bookmakers profits come from F.O.B.T’s in their shops, It’s clear to see that the Government are on that gravy train and will either want a bigger piece of the action or the “outraged” lobby will have their way and get them banned or make the stakes akin to a 2p slot machine in Brighton pavilion.

Lets remember that Paddy Power have acquired Betfair. NOT the other way around, Has Paddy Power spotted that Betfair has an awesome Sportsbook? No chance. We all know that’s a joke. They offer the worse prices across the industry. But they do have a 3.9 million user database. So in effect PP will have going on 4 million new customers (minus the 1m Betfair users that they have banned 🙂 ) Did Ladbrokes close down Betdaq when they acquired it? No, No one can argue that Betdaq is in a better place now.

The exchange model is here to stay. people want it, and it makes money. The very best businesses are the ones that give their customers what they want. Not what they want their customers to have. Betfair have lost their way, no doubt about that. I don’t really care anymore what they do. One door closes and another always opens.

 

WGSTF?

One of the many acronyms I use when I am talking to my Mentorship groups is W.G.S.T.F or What’s Gonna Stop The Favourite?. This video is a classic example of just that.

This is a nasty looking 4 runner race on the All Weather at Lingfield or a ‘horrible Wednesday afternoon. The favourite is Deinonychus. (I Googled this name as I thought it interesting. It is a Dinosaur or a Dutch Doom Metal Band) I like the 2nd one 🙂

My mantra is as I have already said W.G.S.T.F? This is pretty much the first thing I look at when assessing any race. If there is tangible opposition to it, then it may drift. If there isn’t then it won’t. That bit isn’t exactly rocket science is it? So why does that favourite want to come in?  In every market almost without exception sees most of the money traded on the favourite. The shorter the price the more acute this is. Everyone wants to back a winner. Now in Betfair land, this is clouded by traders who crave liquidity to work with. It seems most (but by no means all) opportunities revolve around the favourite in one way or another. There are lots of Bettors who just want to go in the pub and tell their mates they backed the winner in the 1:50 at Lingers.

This may well be a flawed argument, but it’s a good starting point and has served me well for many years!

So opposition. If it’s not going to move in in price, then it’s needs something to stop it. In this race there are 3 other runners. The outsider is the only one remotely putting any pressure on the favourite. It’s influence at 8.6 is not as great as if it was 3.6. This is something to bear in mind. Now before I go steaming into this I need to make sure that the price isn’t going to bounce and I have some exit plan. You hear me talk about Cross Over points often. For me there are one of the most influential aspects of a trade. They are often at the bottom of a range by no coincidence either. They can be hard to breach, so if they are it’s a strong signal.

I wait for this to breach the crossover before I enter my trade. You will see I am quite aggressive with this trade. That’s because my confidence was high that I had it right. My exit? The exit is the most important part of the trade. You always need an escape route if something goes wrong. In this case it would have been just over the crossover at 2.02. After my initial £500 stake, you will see that I am making around £2.50 a tick (greened up), but over 2 I am losing around £5 stick. That’s why the crossover is so significant. My reward is half what I am risking (per tick). So backing just beneath a cross over is not a good idea unless you think you are standing on 10 feet of concrete.

The rest is just faffing about as it goes into freefall. Nothing clever at all about it. I called it right and made a few quid.

I just want to mention that my first induction into my Mentorship Program takes place on 26th January. I have just 4 places available. If you are interested the link is HERE

Thanks for watching, as always I welcome your questions and comments.

Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth

Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth? What the f*** does that even mean? I take it to mean – If someone is giving you a gift – accept it gratefully. I actually googled this to see where it came from. Apparently as horses get older their teeth grow and protrude from their month, Experienced folk can tell a horses age by it’s teeth, So the saying relates to if someone is giving you a horse don’t complain if it’s very old. 🙂  What’s that got to do with this trade? It was a gift!

Got some good comments and critique from my last video where I broke down the trade, so thought I’d do that again. It’s really important not to get too hung up on this explaination. It is dissecting it into minute detail – after the event. That’s always very easy to pick apart. It’s always easy in hindsight, but not so easy when your money is sitting there!

Have a look at the video and then read the comments

00:00 The initial trade was placed as a LAY on the fav at 2.20. The 2nd fav had just broken though it’s resistance point and cross over at 4. A cross over is where the odds change in tick size. In this case below 4 is 0.05 increments and above 4 is 0.1. This is a natural barrier, so breaking though is significant. The fav had a drifting trend and had been trading in the range between 2.06 and 2.2 in had also broken through it’s upper resistance point. An outsider Shamick Boy had moved from 40 into 20. Although I don’t give as much credence to bigger prices this adds to the pressure on the fav to drift, as would any downward pressure from Kuda Huraa.

1:50 It’s ticking along nicely. I’m happy with the staking. In hindsight I could have been more aggresive. But all the time in the back of my mind was that the horse was trained by Nicky Henderson. He’s the top trainer and I didn’t have a reason to understand why the horse may be drifting. Punters are fickle, and it could soon turn.

2:!2 The back book is tight here (100.7%) – it means that something is unlike to drift without something moving in to counteract it. What I am saying is there is little room for ebb & flow – the runners are directly influencing each other. There is still downward pressure from 3 of the runners against the fav. This is why I added to the trade. I could not see it going zooming off into the distance, so attempted to take a modest 5 ticks from that £200.

2:24 I talk about the amounts of money appearing and disappearing. maybe spoof money? If it stands out and it doesn’t move up or down it probably isn’t real, If someone wants to back or lay something the money moves.

4:40 The live pictures say it all to me. At Newbury the horses are corralled in a holding area with a narrow exit. It is absolutely clear that the fav wants to leave there first . None of the other runners are putting him under any pressure for the position. A common strategy nowadays is for people to back the horse pre race and trade out once the odds have dropped as the y take a prominent position in play. A favourite with an uncontested lead (as long as he settles well in the race) is likely to have a healthy reduction in odds. As it becomes clear to all this is happening the odds tumble. irrespective of what happens in the market prior to this. This last few moments wipes all that out.

UPDATE

I have received a comment from Daz: he makes a good point about using the “Back2lay” strategy and warns of it’s danger. If you read my reply to Daz you will see that in this case I was using the fact that he was obviously lining up in front and taking advantage of the reversal in the drift as a consequence. This was a high confidence trade – because I could see what was happening.  

As you guys know. I have a straightforward approach to my trading. I say it how it is. If I don’t do well i say so. I don’t pretend to be the best, because I am not. I am like most of you guys. I make bad calls, use bad judgement and have bad moods. I want to share with you something that happened EXACTLY along the lines of what Daz is warning about.

I wish I had recorded this live, it was 19th December at Exeter (1:50)  I have found the video of the start of the race to show exactly what happened. The fav in the 4 runner race was Bury Parade. A smart horse trading at around 1.5. I was watching the preliminaries and at Exeter the horse (depending on the distance) have to walk down a narrow walkway. There is only room for 2 horses across max. In this case Bury Parade was a couple of lengths ahead. When the horse get to the bottom, the usual chain of events is they walk straight onto the course and off they go. I saw this as an opportunity to make some very easy money. When a favourite, especially this short leads. As long as it jumps ok and doesn’t pull. The odds will tumble very quickly. I expected to get 5-7 ticks before they saw a fence. I was very aggressive with this trade and staked a Substantial amount. Watch the video (Click the link below) and see what happened next. Lesson learned. btw. My wife got very little for Christmas this year 🙂

Bury Parade

 

Racing Video Preview & Review: Bonus Video 17th April

My Daily Racing Preview video:

I am having 4 trades

3:55 Cheltenham: Eastern Meteor 7.8 stop loss 9.8
4:55 Beverley: Admiralofthesea 4.3 stop loss 5.4
5:15 Newmarket: LAY Improvisation IN PLACE MARKET @ 1.52 stop loss 1.4
5:35 Cheltenham: Nanpour 6.6 stop loss 8.2

Preview: video

Evening Review:

Firstly my apologies for forgetting to actually publish this page. It wan’t until one of my readers asked my at gone 12 that I realised it wasn’t on the blog. Sorry 🙂

Let’s have a look to see what happened.
1:45 Newmarket. Jammy Guest. On the face of it this was a strong favourite which had been well backed. However,as I warned in these races with young horses, late moves and bad behaviour can really mess things up. This drifted very badly and ended up at 8.6.
2:15 Newmarket: Vodka Rock, Hugh Taylors horse continued to steam and won. There was never an opportunity to oppose it. It was obviously not drifting at any point.
2:35 Beverly. Mister Marcasite. I thought it would come in and it did. However, it was another late Hugh taylor selection, I didn’t realise this. so I would never had got involved in it.
3:30 Newmarket Emell – actually drifted a few ticks, the danger horse Alhebayeb did come in. A good call to swerve it
3:55 Cheltenham: Eastern Meteor – i backed this at 7.8 and closed at 6.6 for a £14 profit to £100 stakes
4:40 Newmarket Kerbaaj -It did come in from 8.4 to 5.8 – The other horse i mentioned Alta Lilea stayed pretty much where it was.
4:55 Beverley: Admiralofthesea 4.3 out to 4.8 when I closed. It carried on drifting Loss of £10 for £100 stakes
5:15 Newmarket Improvisation Place lay at 1.4 after the reduction factor applied by the withdrawal of Battalion – closed at 1.47 for a small profit
5:35 Cheltenham: Nampour – Backed at 6.6 and closed at3.6 for an £83 profit to £100 stakes. Not too shabby!

Hope you were able to pick a few good trades out yourself. MG

I did this trade on the huge drift on Permeate. The bloody sound failed! In truth you don’t need me to say anything. Everything was very obvious!

Racing Trades , Video Preview & Review 13th April

If you want to see how to get the best out of my trades see HERE

I have money in the queues at all these prices. If ALL of my money is not matched the trade goes down as no trade. If it goes significantly lower, I will cancel the trade if the momentum goes against it.

Back Trades

4:15 Stratford: Iolith 4/1 5.1 stop loss 6.4

That’s all I can find.

Please be aware (If you subscribe to “The inside track” you will already know). That I will not be putting up the racing trades from now. I will instead present an earlier preview video. Any selections I have backed while doing the preview I will post up while the video is loading. This will give you a chance to back them if you want to. I will not however be recording the bets like I do now. This is one of the areas that is taking up too much of my time in the evening. Like I have always said. I am not a tipster. i would rather help you to find you own trades. many of you are already doing this with excellent results. I realise that many of you will be at work and not able to do this. My apologies. Those who just want tips and don’t want to learn will probably be better off with a tipster site. There are plenty of them.

There will be no video on Monday: I am having a day off!!!!!!! Wooooohoooo

Preview Video:

Review:
As the live show started our runner was trading at 4.3. My trade still had a small amount matched, as in the video. I cancelled the remaining stake. Unfortunately this goes down as a “no trade”. I have explained the reasons for cancelling many times. But briefly, if it now drifts (which it did) the momentum of the trade is against us. By the time my money is taken it would have drifted 7 or 8 ticks. As it proved it kept on drifting and hit over 6.

Racing Trades & Video Preview 12th April

If you want to see how to get the best out of my trades see HERE

I have money in the queues at all these prices. If ALL of my money is not matched the trade goes down as no trade. If it goes significantly lower, I will cancel the trade if the momentum goes against it.

Apologies for the delay: The blog server was offline. Hopefully you got the info via Twitter/YouTube.

Back Trades

3:00 Lingfield: Copperwood 5/1 5.7 stop loss 7

3:15 Chepstow: Bailey’s Concerto  5/1 5.8 stop loss 7.2

Preview Video:

Evening Review:

A horrible day in the markets as I suspected this morning. Our first trade was looking good early on, even when the live show began it was a tick or 2 below where I had backed it. It started to drift as support came for a couple of the other runners. I soon closed as I didn’t see it going anywhere apart from drifting. It is important if you see a drift begin you don’t blindly sit there and wait for it to hit the stop loss. If someone at a bar in a pub was taking tenners out of your wallet you would stop them after the first one, not wait until it was empty before saying “Oi! Fuck off” 🙂 I closed at 6.2 for a £10 loss.
The 2nd runner Bailey’s Concerto was much better, pretty strong all day and I closed at 4.9 for a nice £17
A small profit, but profit is profit!

 

Racing Trades, Preview Video, Evening Review AND a Trading Video!: 11th April

If you want to see how to get the best out of my trades see HERE

I have money in the queues at all these prices. If ALL of my money is not matched the trade goes down as no trade. If it goes significantly lower, I will cancel the trade if the momentum goes against it.

Back Trades

3:30 Wincanton: CeePeeGee:  9/2 – 5.3 stop loss  6.6

3:40 Ludlow: Fiendish Flame: 5/1 – 6.2 stop loss 7.8

5:30 Kempton: Warbond: 5/1 6.2 stop loss 7.8

Lay Trades

2:50 Fontwell: Seebright LAY @2.5 stop loss (10%) 2.28

Thats all the trades

Preview Video:

Evening Review:
The first trade was a Lay on Seebright. This went against us and the tight stop loss limited the loss to only £12
The 2nd trade was a back trade on CeePeeGee. This was a nice straightforward mover and I closed at 4.1, I caught it after it bottomed out a couple of ticks below that. A nice £27 profit.
Next was Fiendish Flame. It was evident straight away this wasn’t moving. I closed for scratch – no harm done. Last up was the 5:30 Kempton and the back trade on Warbond. It turned out to be a beauty as it traded from 6.2 into below 4. I closed at 4.1 and it drifted a few ticks more to around 5. A really nice £48 profit and a daily profit of over £60.

Video Preview: Highs and Lows

Racing Trades, Preview Video & Evening Review 10th April

 

If you want to see how to get the best out of my trades see HERE

I have money in the queues at all these prices. If ALL of my money is not matched the trade goes down as no trade. If it goes significantly lower, I will cancel the trade if the momentum goes against it.

Back Trades

2:40 Nottingham: Moviesta: 4/1/ 4.7 stop loss 5.9

4:00 Lingfield: A Ladies Man: 3/1 4.0 stop loss 5.0

5:20 Catterick: Knightly Escapade 7/2 4.7 – Stop loss 5.9

See todays trading videos HERE

That complets the trades:
Preview Video

Evening Review:

I cannot tell you how frustrated I am today, first up was Moviesta at Nottingham, in truth it didn’t do much. I closed at scratch. No harm done.

The 2nd runner was A Ladies Man at Lingfield. This drifted badly, straight past the stop loss at 5 and even hit 6!. Then  was aggressively back right in to fav and 3.6 at the off. What should have been a profit ended in a max loss.

The 3rd runner should have been a real flyer once it’s main danger Annas Arch was withdrawn. It moved in a few ticks for a small profit. A disappointing and frustrating day overall.

Video Preview: Highs and Lows

2:00 Lingfiled: Archeloa: Caught my eye but wasn’t strong enough. 7.8 into 4.8 WON
2:10 Nottingham: Elhaame: 1.62 weak out to 2.1 Stepping Ahead 5.8 into 3.5 WON
2:20 Catterick: Ridgeblade 11.5 – 8.4 (2.22 in play)
2:30 Lingfield: Custom House: 6.8 – 11. I managed to get out with a small profit before it started to drift – Qeethaara went from 4.3 into 4 WON
2:50 Catterick: Polar Kite The strongest horse in the race by far. 2.9 into 2.35 WON
3:00 Lingfield: Dark Lane: I expected this to be strong. It wasn’t 2.84 out to 3. I though Desert Strike might be the danger. 5 out to 6.8 WON
3:20 Catterick. I spoke about Glennridding being a front runner. He was taken on an never got to the front.
3:30 Lingfield: King Bertie 2.84 “An uneasy favourite” out to 4.6! Lionheart “interesting runner” 7.2 into 5.1 2nd
3:40 Nottingham. “The 2nd and 3rd fav may be pushing Sir Graham Wade out : 2.64 out to 3.4
4:20 Catterick: I talked about Hugh Taylors selections drifting. 5.9 out to 8.8 – place market followed Place SP 2.57 so very tradable.
4:30 Lingfield: Another Cocktail was the Richard Hughes runner, he had had a previous winner, my thoughts were there would be doubles and trebles rolling up on him so be aware of it. I said he was strong and could see no opposition. 1.94 into 1.58 WON. A massive move.
4:40 Nottingham Singersongwriter. I though this would stay strong 1.86 – 1,95/ But traded well below 1.86 as it went up and down several times pre race.
4:50 Catterick: Another Hugh Taylor runner Arizona John 5.4 – 9.4 Place SP 2.42
5:00 Lingfield: Refreshtheparts. Another Hughes runner – 2 winners so far 2.52 – 2.04 WON. I said Yojojo was weak. that went from 2.68 out to 2.9
5:10 Nottingham: Standing Bear 9.8 but only £400 traded drifted like it had no legs at all to 17. The “popular” jockeys were backed in. Ryan Mooores’ horse went from 3.5 into 2.84

A pretty successful day I reckon for the preview video.

 

 

 

Racing Trades & Preview Video: 9th April

If you want to see how to get the best out of my trades see HERE

I have money in the queues at all these prices. If ALL of my money is not matched the trade goes down as no trade. If it goes significantly lower, I will cancel the trade if the momentum goes against it.

Back Trades

Pontefract 4:45 Macaabra 11/4: 3.75 stop loss 4.7

LAY Trades

2:30 Southwell: Another Claret/ LAY @ 1.85 stop loss 1.73

That completes the trades:

There is a video from todays trading HERE
Video Preview:

Evening Review:
GRRRRRRRRR
Didn’t get matched on Another Claret so it goes down a s a no bet. It did however hit 2.7.
The other runner as you will see in the preview video didn’t come back from it’s drift. The stop loss was hit and we lose £20

Lets have a blast through the preview video and see what we have.
2:00 Southwell Livia Drusilla 8 into 6.6 – I didn’t want to get involved did I?
2:20 Carlisle Drill Sergent 3.1 out to 4.8 – Good decision to swerve
3:!0 Pontefract: Queen Aggie 18 – the move in didn’t materialise and it drifted near the off.
3:30 Southwell: Mary’s Pet/ Hold The Pin. Mary’s Pet did drifted from 5.5 to 6.3. Hold The Pin was the strongest runner. It carried on moving in from 4.3 to 3.7 The result in the race was 1st Hold The Pin – 2md Mary’s Pet
3:40 Ponte: Marmas drifted out from 11 to 15
4:25 Carlisle: Rebel Swing 5.4 out to 6 – but I managed to get out unscathed.
4:35 Southwell Stentorion did drift. Anna’s Arch came in from 4.1 into 3.6 and won