Fulham v Stoke City
23rd Feb @ 12:45 on Sky Sports 2
I have a looked at this match and see if I can find what I consider to be a good value bet. My starting point in most of my football betting is my BetFormPro software.
After a quick look though the stats available in the popular markets I find one that jumps off the page. The under/over 2.5 goals market. I like to trade this market. The reason being it is one of the 2 main markets for football betting. If you’re playing on the exchanges the liquidity is high and it’s usually very easy to get in and out of a trade.
I interrogate the last 10 matches. What this does is look back at the last 10 matches played by Fulham at home and by Stoke away against teams of the same standard (grade) as their opposition in this match. When you’re looking back at recent form why is Fulham’s match away to Man Utd relevant when we are looking at a home match against Stoke? With all respect to Stoke, they will not test Fulham at Craven Cottage anything like a trip to Old Trafford to play Manchester United would. That is one of the things that make BetFormPro so accurate. The other thing to note is I could interrogate back 50 or 100 matches or even go back to 2009/10. But I fail to see how that helps me. Fulham’s main players then were Clint Dempsey, Andy Johnson, Danny Murphy and Bobby Zamora. Stoke had Fuller and Sidibe. My point is recent form is more relevant.
This is the screenshot of the analysis.
If we zoom in on the under 2.5 goals section
As we scan across the over 2.5 goals line we see that 63% of these matches have produced over 2.5 goals, this gives the I.O or Implied odds of 1.58. That means that the “true chance” of overs is 1.58. The next figure is under BO. (Bookmakers odds) shows we can actually back overs at 2.19 giving a value advantage of 17% This figure demands attention.
So this on its own looks to be a great bet. However is there anything we can do you make it even better? Yes, of course.
Next port of call for me is the goals market. I want to see when the goals were scored. Believe it or not teams tend to score goals in patterns. Some teams are notorious poor starters, while others really go for it from the first whistle. The goals table gives some perspective to this.
This table illustrates nicely the first half goals (Fulham home and Stoke away). There are 19 matches in the sample. In the 1st 10 minutes there has been 2 goals (10.5%) and in the first 15 minutes 4 or 21% (There are 2 goals in 1 match, but for this calculation we take the match into account the amount of matches with goals, not the amount of goals). If we move a little further in to 20 minutes 47% of the matches have had a goal in them. This shows clearly that a slow start is likely. How can we now use this to enhance our bet on over 2.5 goals?
As you know the odds on under/over 2.5 goals are affected by what is known as time decay. If there is no score the odds on under 2.5 goals will shorten all the way to 1.01 if no goals. The price on overs will subsequently move out. The way I want to use this information is to wait until 10 minutes into the match before I place my bet.
The price pre kick off of 2.19 will be between 2.5-2.6 by 10 minutes. If the game is slow and few shots it will be even higher.
This gives us a bet with the price of around 2.55 for what we think are true odds of 1.58 giving a bigger margin. If do a couple of simple calculations:
1/1.58 = 64% chance
1/2.55= 39% chance
We are improving the bet by 25%. This gives a bigger margin of error. These bets are not landed every time. But if you get good value and then improve that value by another 25% you have to be on the right side in the long term.
It is possible to trade out to lock in some profit if there is a goal. I don’t see any point in this as we lose the value bet we have created. However, saying that, an opportunity to reduce some liability at short odds that may deserve consideration.
Value betting is about taking a long term view. It’s important to remember that.
If you like this bet and fancy having a go at it there are a couple of things to take into account before you “pull the trigger”
- Make sure the teams are as you expect them. If a team have made 7 changes from their last match walk away.
- We are using time delay to enhance our bet, has there been a hold up in the match that will alter the odds. You may need to make an adjustment.
Update: Saturday Morning 6:45am
Just checking prices. The over 2.5 goals on Betfair have drifted to 2.32. I’m sure this will change again. This moves our target price out after 10 mins to 2.6/2.65. The trade is even better value now.
Update: 30 minutes to kick off
Overs now 2.4 – target price after 10 mins is 2.65/2.7 – more if I’m lucky
To recap: Back Over 2.5 goals at 10 minutes if no goal scored is the bet I am hoping to get involved in.
To help you get an even better price than the 2.55 I have targeted. Have a read of this article about Asian handicap betting. This is about to become one of the biggest markets for sure Over/Under goals markets you may not have considered?
Post match review:
The fist part went well, I managed to get matched at 10 mins at 2.7. The goal just before HT gave a small profit if traded out. However, that was not the way the bet was structured. The turning point for me was when Stoke missed the penalty just after half time. Overall very disapointing. The whole point of a value bet is if you are on the right side of value to the degree of this trade, it’s very difficult to lose in the long term. Winning from betting is a long term project. The overall position is what’s important.
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