Another World Cup Trade – Update

Update:

The group stages are now over so I wanted to update you with what’s happened to this trade.

You will see from reading the original post below that I had taken a position on Holland at 14. Things have not gone exactly to plan, but due to Holland going behind in the Australia match I got a little 18’s to add to my trade. I have positions on both Betfair & Betdaq, my Betfair. I traded out my Betfair position at 10, which was a mistake as it has dropped to 9.6 to lay now. But I am sitting pretty with over £750 green on Holland with no liability. 

The dream scenario now would be for Brazil to go out, which should see Holland go as low as 6 if I am lucky. Holland’s next match is against Mexico, which is no gimme. After that a quarter final against Costa Rica or Greece and then a Semi against Argentina.

Holland can be Layed against Mexico at 2.18 in match odds. I may take some of that as insurance, although it;s more likely I will see if Holland can get a goal in front, I will defiantly be laying then as I can get some low risk insurance. When I just read the original post and how I thought things would pan out, it shows what a crazy WC this has been. Which ever way it pans out I have managed too get back my loss on the Spanish fiasco and make enough for a curry. Life is good 🙂

 

Earlier in the week I posted up a trade I had opened in the World Cup winners market. LINK

This was to back Spain  – you can read my reasons in that post. Spain have drifted slightly, but I am happy enough. From what I have seen from Brazil tonight I am even more convinced I called it right. I have decided to add another trade to this market. It is important to stress the word “Trade” here. This isn’t a straight bet and I intend to trade it as I say here.

So what is the trade and why am I getting involved? I have took a position on Holland at 14. After virtually all the big teams have played, none have been so impressive as Holland. They made the World Champions and what were considered the best national team there has been for many years look poor. Their big players, Van Persie & Robben were unplayable. Will they win the World Cup? Based on what we have seen so far? Yes.  But as a trade they do not need to.

Structure

Working backwards I want to know where I can exit this trade and how much upside there will be compared to my downside. Now this may sound complex, so bear with me and I will explain it as simply as I can.

Holland have what looks like the group whipping boys Australia to play next, and then Chile. I would expect them to beat both and win the group. The next game baring a Brazilian disaster will be against Croatia or Mexico. This is no gimme, but I am confident of a victory here. There are many of the bigger teams that by this stage – Quarter finals will have been eliminated. Either Brazil or Spain will be out. Possibly Portugal. If things play out as I expect the next obstacle in the quarter finals will be England or Italy. Another winnable match. But that’s way down the line.

Exit Strategy

After qualification there will be 16 teams eliminated, the percentage of the book these teams occupy  will be distributed between the remaining teams. There will be a bias towards the favourite teams. Before the round of 16 match against Croatia or Mexico (as long as Brazil don’t throw their last match to avoid Spain – which would be received very badly.) Brazil will more than likely play Spain. There will be a chance to trade out either completely or take out some liability before Holland play this match. Worse case, why would they drift? Unless they lose Van Persie or Robben. But there are many variables  that you just can’t take into account.

Upside/ Downside

Lets start with downside. The dangers are Brazil do not meet Spain, that’s of course possible. At worse Holland could meet Brazil. But after the way Holland destroyed Spain, and Brazil’s lack of sparkle should see too much damage. Maybe a couple of ticks .

Upside depends on if Spain play Brazil and who wins that match. If Brazil beat Spain, but unconvincingly or on pens. punters will compare Brazil’s performance with Holland’s against Spain. Unless that hammer Spain I think this may look favourably on Holland anyway.

A price in single figures is very realistic before they play their last 16 match. I hope to take out most if not all of my liability and leave the profit running. This will depend on what happens over the next few matches, As an example. If I staked £100 @ 14and the I closed with £100 at 10 I would have 4×100 profit on Holland (£400) or could green up for £40. If we had to take a loss and closed at 16.5 the loss would be around £15. I think this very unlikely, but planning for the worst case is something you should do for every trade.

I love these sorts of trades. Just for the puzzle if nothing else. It makes a change from the daily grind of the ladder and racing.

As always i welcome your comments and questions.

Just to say my mega reliable imac has been in for repair twice over the past week or so. So i am struggling to record much. With a new induction on Monday, the World Cup and Royal Ascot, things are pretty hectic. I’ll be back on track shortly

Cheers

Steve

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