Match Odds – Potential Steamers Sat/Sun

I have a couple of potential steamers in the match odds markets for this weekend.

Man Utd away to QPR are 1.59.

WBA at home to Sunderland are 1.99

Both these kick off at 3:00pm

In the Milan derby tomorrow evening I have been tracking AC Milan all week. After a brilliant display against Barcelona and the patchy form from Inter, can anybody tell me why their price will not move in? They both played in midweek, Milan at home on Wednesday and Inter away in Romania on Thursday. Most football fans will watched the Milan v Barca game and I think this will be reflected in a steam of their price over the weekend.

Look for confirmation of a move and then help yourself.

Update: Sunday 8:45am

Man Utd: I managed to get out at 1.57. For a 2 tick profit

WBA : Took 1.87 (I actually already had some on at 2.06) 12 tick profit on this

Milan : Now into 2.2 from 2.34. A 7 tick gain so far

Make no mistake, these are BIG ticks. In a slow moving market with high liquidity you can get large amounts on for relatively low risk. These are the bread and better trades that underpin my betting.

Come back often for more trades like this.

8 thoughts on “Match Odds – Potential Steamers Sat/Sun

  1. Hi,
    Thank you for the tips. I was on the AC Milan steam since Barcelona match from 2.5 now already 2.5
    Do you think Arsenal will drift due their bad performance against Bayern?

    • Good work with Milan Rijck. I have looked long and hard at Arsenal, not sure what will happen. If they were playing a decent team I would say yes, for sure. But Aston Villa are a really poor team this season. For me it’s one to leave alone.

      • Can i just ask what kind out money you can make on the Man Utd 2 tick change in price? What would you have done if they had drifted? Thanks, Simon

        • I don’t want to brag about the amount of money I make. So please excuse me if I don’t put that up. But I think I understand what your getting at. The profit on the 3 trades I advised as things stand now is an increase of 5% of whatever bank size you used. I split the trades 50% of bank on Man Utd (and left all the profit on Man U – no liability if they didn’t win) 30% on WBA and the other 20% on Milan. I have a separate bank for these trades, as it ties large amounts of money up for long periods. This may seem pointless. But this type of trade in a slow moving, high liquidity market, if managed correctly is very profitable. The downside is something that needs careful attention. I didn’t just make a wild guess about if the prices would steam or drift. It was careful calculation, market knowledge and gathering of other information. It’s really not too hard. It’s not like trading the last 5 minutes of a horse race :-). If they had drifted. I would have implemented my exit strategy to protect my bank. Keep a look out in my portfolio trades section. As The staking plan will be in there once I list this trade in the Portfolio. Please don’t confuse this type of trade with a “normal” bet you may have on a horse. Have a look at the amounts traded. It’s usually much more than even the top horse races, even for average matches.Make no mistake, these are BIG ticks.

          • Thanks for the reply. Sorry if I appeared rude when asking about the money you can make on a 2 tick movement in the Man Utd starting price. It’s just that from a beginners point of view 2 ticks doesn’t sound very much and I thought it could have been 2 ticks just as easily the other way which would have led to losses. I’ve got a lot to learn I think and will look at the rest of your blog.

            Excellent blog by the way. VERY informative and much appreciated. Keep up the good work!

          • Thanks for your comment Simon. Let me put some perspective on trades like this. These are possibly the lowest risk trades you can do. So you can put very large sums on with minimal risk. I don’t get involved in these trades on a whim or “guess” which way they will go. I use a very strong set of criteria. so the strike rate is very high. I also have a very tight stop loss mechanism in place to protect me if they go wrong. (Of course they do from time to time) If you are getting on this sort of market the liquidity is VERY high. This means an escape is also easy when you want to close the trade. If you put a large amount in a low liquidity market it is easy to get trapped with no way out. If you were to have £1000 at this price and the market moved 1 tick, that gives you around £6.30 green across all selections. So 5k would give you £31.50 per tick 2 tick = £63. I had a similar trade yesterday on Southampton v QPR. On at 1.90 out at 1.69. This was a massive move that made £130 per £1k invested. £130 x £5k = £650 green. Once the move starts you move your stop loss so it’s mostly about how much you make and your risk is quickly eliminated. What is hard to get your head around when you start out is sums like £5k sound like a lot of money (and of course they are). But your are not risking £5k. At this level your risking about £50 a tick. You are not going to let it go more than 3 ticks against you. But your upside is much bigger. You need an average 3 tick gain and a strike rate of better than 50%. With careful profiling this isn’t hard to do. The sums I am talking are secondary. I am not saying these are the amounts I use. Just using then to illustrate what’s possible. The last thing I want to do is come across as “flash”. Look at me how much I make blah blah. That isn’t at all what my blog is about. I certainly don’t want to turn it into a “cock show”. I was even worried about posting my videos. The are not to brag how great I am. That’s why there are losing ones too. It’s all about education and learning. That’s where I am going with is.Hope you come along for the ride, I hope I have explained the 2 tick gain properly. Cheers MG

    • Good work with Milan Rijck. I have looked long and hard at Arsenal, not sure what will happen. If they were playing a decent team I would say yes, for sure. But Aston Villa are a really poor team this season. For me it’s one to leave alone.

  2. I want to share this with you. I think Feyenoord will steam tomorrow. Currently at 3.25, yesterday at 3.5.
    Feyenoord is almost 2 years unbeaten at home. PSV misses her captain v. Bommel and their right wing fullback. They have no other right full backs in squad, so they will play with either a central defender or a youth player who will make his debut.
    Hope I am right, don’t blame me if I’m wrong. Join on your own risk.

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