Portfolio Bets 2nd March – Weekend Football

Here are my Portfolio bets for this weekend

Please read how I trade these markets HERE

Premier League

Man Utd v Norwich: Kick Off Sat 2nd March 3:00pm

Half Time/ Full Time (HTFT) Man utd/ Man utd

Utd have been in front in 70% of their last 20 matches of teams of a similar level to Norwich. 90% of matches have been won by utd. Powerful stats. I have utd down as a 1.5 chance. Bookies offering 2 or even money.

Additional info: 7 out of the last 19 matches of grade v grade involving these teams have produced a goal in 1st 10 mins. A 37% chance of a goal in 1st 10 mins. I will be adding a “How to guide” soon to show you how to take advantage of this. There is an example HERE if you fancy a crack at it.

BET: Back Home/Home in HT/FT market @ 2 (BetVC and Betfair) Stake: 3pts

Won: +3pts

The guide as linked above for staking plan.

SERIE A

Fiorentina v Chievo k.o Sat 2nd March  14:00

HT/FT Home/Home. I have this at around 3.7 but it’s available to LAY on Betfair at @2.36

BET: LAY Home/Home @ 2.36   Stake: 2 pts liability. 

Won: +1.4 pts

Catania v Inter k.o. Sun 3rd March 14:00

HT/FT Draw/Away.  My stats (BetFormPro) are flagging this up at around 3.45. The bookies who always know better think it’s 7 (7.4 Betfair)

BET: Back Draw/Away in HT/FT market 7 available generally with bookmakers. 7.4 on Betfair is slightly better than that after commission.(7.03) You may get even better. Stake 1pt

Lost :-1pt

La Liga

Malaga v Ath Madrid k.o Sun 3rd March 18:00

HT/FT Home/Home This is popping up at just over 11/10. The odds on offer of 5 seems huge value

BET: Malaga/Malaga in HT/FT market. @5 Stake 1pt

Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund v Hannover 96  k.o Sat 2nd March 14:30

HT/FT Home/Home  Dortmund gave probably the best team in Europe (Bayern Munich) a really good game in the German Cup an wednesday night (away), narrowly losing 1-0 Hannover won 5-1 last weekend and on the face of it are in good form. However, their away form is poor. Everything I have stats wise points to good value backing Dortmund/Dortmund.

BET: Borussia Dortmund/Borussia Dortmund in HT/FT market @ 1.85 BetVC or 1.91 Betfair Stake: 2pts

Won: +1.7 pts

Total points staked = 9

I use BetformPro to help me generate the stats I use to form a tissue price, it’s the tissue price that determines if I think there is value in the bet. What I have found here is the tip of the iceberg.

BetForm Pro

 

6 thoughts on “Portfolio Bets 2nd March – Weekend Football

  1. I use betform pro to find value bets similar to the ones you have highlighted and then try to trade them and close before the game starts, only just started looking at this strategy, so was wondering if you have any thoughts on this idea?

    • It’s a possibility for sure. What you are highlighting is value. If others spot the value the price is bound to come in. I wrote a really comprehensive article that i think they are putting out next week, about how I traded the Hannover game last weekend. It it basically highlighting all the opportunities there were to lock in profit once the game starts. I have stacks of stuff to share about this sort of thing. I spend more time typing than betting at the moment 🙂 I think it’s a mistake to overlook other ways to trade the info you find. Once your armed with the info it’s quite easy. The next stage of my portfolio bets will be showing how I use the time of goals to structure bets. I have had really good success over the last 2 or 3 weeks with this. Let me know how your getting on with this pre match trading. It’s good info. Cheers Martin

  2. ℓ̊ loved your stats and am following you on twitter ℓ̊ would L♥√ε̲ to get more on your stats yesterday ℓ̊ started following you on twitter and your pointers on man utd and dortmond α̲̅rε̲̣ excellent made some money would be grateful if you could follow back @damien7919 thank you

    • Damien, The stats are generated from Betformpro (there is a banner link on my page somewhere, you can get a 28 free trial). What I am picking out are stand outs coupled with some common sense selection processes.I have lots more different ways to use these stats. I have even wrote a couple of articles for them. http://tinyurl.com/bamnx3m and http://tinyurl.com/b3vdpmu. My next article is out next week. What I have done is created a long term view of their data base and then used the 10 match sample as confirmation. This works very well. Over the next few weeks I’ll be adding new ways to profit from them. The skys the limit really. I will only be putting up maybe 5 or 6 a week. But there are loads more. Others that were on my shortlist was Wigan /Liverpool – goal in 1st 10 mins (similar to the example in my Anatomy of a trade page) Everton v Reading BTTS @ 1.97. Sthampton v QPR CS 1-1 (could have hedged at 2.7 from 9). Stoke v WHU. No goal in 1st 15 mins (The stat was only 3 goals in 24 matches) Swansea BTTS Lay BTTS yes at 1.67 ( won). Nurnburg v Freiburg BTTS @ 1.9 (1-1 last I looked). But the best was something I have in the pipeline that is a long term match odds bet. I had Southampton @ 1.9 and traded out at 1.69. That pays £125 all green for every £1k invested at very very low risk. I have a couple of trades like this most weeks. I’ll be posting them up soon too. (I don’t use BFP for these). Anyway theres some examples of the power of the tool. It’s just a case of learning how to select the best bets. Which is what I will be doing.Once you understand what is required it’s easy to find the bets. Cheers MG

  3. I had to go out yesterday, so I did a nice double with your selections on Man utd and Borussia Dortmund, keeps the bank ticking over, cheers!

    • Nice one Craig. I stuck in the Malaga bet with those 2 in a trixie. Fingers crossed eh? (I think Malaga is a tough one to land though) The other 2 were no brainers. Although thank God for Fergie time at the end of 1st half. I though it was a loser! WD mate

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