Three weeks in for the Portfolio bets and 3 weeks of profit. Currently standing at 13.15 points it’s been a great start. I am mindful that as the season draws to an end, we are coming to a point where some matches have no meaning whatsoever. Teams that have no chance of Euro qualification or are not involved in a relegation tussle. The Spanish and Italian leagues are of particular concern. We are not quite there yet, I hope to squeeze a few more weeks profit out first.
This Weekends Bets
Aston Villa v Liverpool: K.O 13:30 Sunday
Villa have been woeful, but there have been signs of a revival. Liverpool as so inconsistent. The tipping point for this bet is the midweek World Cup matches. Most of the Liverpool squad have been spread all over the World. This travelling must have an impact. This is a value call.
Bet: Aston Villa – Draw No Bet. (DNB) Stake 1pt Corals @ 4 is by far the best price.
Freiburg v Borussia Monchengladbach K.O. Sat 14:30
I have the 3 season average for these grade of team at 1.53. The more recent last 10 games average is 1.73. The last 3 H2H matches show that 2/3 had more than 2.5 goals. I think we are getting enough advantage in value to take this on.
Bet: Over 2.5 Goals. Stake: 2 pts @ 2.12 with Pinnacle
Dusseldorf v Bayer Leverkusen K.O. Sat: 14:30
Leverkusen are very strong against the weakest grade D teams as you would expect. Only 1 defeat in the last 10 matches and 7 victories. I think we getting 10/11 for what is a true 4/9 chance.
Bet: Bayer Leverkusen Away win in Match Odds Market. 3 pts @ 1.91 Corals
Vallacano v Malaga K.O. Sat 15:00
Malaga have only been beaten twice in the last 10 matches against similar graded opposition . The re is actually value in a straight away win. But erring on the side of caution I have decided to go with a DNB call for Malaga.
Bet: Malaga DNB: Stake 1 pt @3.5 Corals
Levante v Sevilla K.O 21:00 Sat
The last 10 Levante home games against similar graded opposition has seen them lose twice. Sevilla have managed only 1 away in 10 against similar a similar grade. I think a DNB @ 2.55 is generous.
Bet: Levante DNB 2 pts @ 2.55 VCBet.
Inter v Juventus
The top game in Serie A this weekend, if not Europe. Bothe these teams are A grade. When playing Grade A teams at home Inter have won 5/10. Where Juventus have managed to win on 3/10 away. I have this at 2.12 on my 3 season sheet and 2.38 for the last 10 grade v grade matches. The match odds from Inter are 3.54. I like the DNB option as it gives a little insurance, at 2.45 we are getting the draw for free. It may not give spectacular gains, but a slow steady drip of profits while protecting your bank is smart betting.
Bet: Inter DNB: Stake 2pts @ 2.45 with VCBet