Value trade – Liverpool v Swansea 17th Feb

I think I have found a value bet in the Liverpool v Swansea EPL game on Sunday

Interrogating the match using my BetformPro stats software I discovered that over the past 3 seasons teams of a similar grade have a 33% chance the Home/ Home result in the Half Time Full Time markets.

This gives implied odds of 3.04. The ACTUAL price available on Betfair is a stingy 2.54 to LAY

That means they are offering  6/4 for what should be 2/1. If you have seen either of these 2 teams play lately you will know Swansea are becoming a real force in the EPL. Playing against their old  boss with maybe a point to prove. Liverpool were playing in Russia on Thursday in a tough game on a heavy pitch. (thanks Matt for the correction on this)

 

I think there is some value in LAYING Liverpool/Liverpool in the Betfair HT/FT market at 2.54

BetForm Pro

3 thoughts on “Value trade – Liverpool v Swansea 17th Feb

  1. When do you expect to close the trade on this? Ante post? Once the game starts, if Liverpool score there will be no stop loss available will there?

    • There is value in the price now, so any time as long as it’s a similar price. I wouldn’t go bigger than 2.6 as the value is diminishing. This is more a straight bet rather than a “trade” however, there are lots of ways to reduce liability once it goes in play.
      e.g If Swansea go ahead there are options to lay them in the first half market, the match odds, the correct score , next goal etc etc. So a profit is pretty much guaranteed. But on the other side of the coin if the go ahead they still have to win the match. An equaliser will give other options.
      I just thought all things considered from what I have seen over the past few weeks from both these teams, especially Thursdays match and the way teams perform in general after an away Euro leg. PLUS the stats pointing to such poor value, it was something I couldn’t ignore.
      Liverpool’s prices are always too short. Many punters think Emlyn and Tommy Smith are still at the back and Dalglish wears the number 7 shirt and they are invincible.

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