Persistance​​​/Support/Knowledge

As an established educator of aspiring traders, I am in the privileged position of having met hundreds of traders from every walk of life. From City bankers to emergency service workers, from armed service personnel to mum’s trying to learn to trade and juggle 3 jobs and look after a family.

There are many factors against us while we are trying to learn this difficult skill. Some can be easily overcome. Others not so.

I have a strong reputation for “saying it like it is”. So I have never positioned myself as someone with a magic wand that can miraculously turn you into a pro trader if you spend a day with me.

Now, there are lots and lots of pieces of useful information and hacks I can give you to improve facets of your trading. All have a value, and if implemented will make money. Or at least help you stop losing money.

I realise I have a skill that means I can make something that is pretty difficult to look very easy. I get told this daily. But the truth is. The nuts and bolts of pre-race trading are really not difficult to grasp. I teach them at a workshop, and due to the style of teaching, I am confident that nearly all the attendees understand the signals that drive a market. But this is just the beginning.

For the best chance of success there are a few more ingredients that are needed.

  • Screentime
  • Patience
  • Mental toughness
  • Tenacity
  • Knowledge
  • Persistence
  • Support

I can give you some of these items, but what you have inside is very important, as are constraints on your time.

All of the above are important, but I believe the 3 that you need above all else is knowledge, persistence; That never give up attitude and support. Support from someone who knows what they are talking about and can guide you down that dark and sometimes lonely road.

If you think that the person to help you on this journey is me. You are welcome to book a call with me and discuss what might be best for you. THIS IS NOT A SALES CALL
Just an opportunity to chat with me informally to see where you are at and if I can help you.

You can book 15 minutes of my time free of charge and without obligation,
calendly.com/steve_mg

Ask Steve about Betfair Trading. Overbet Runners

Question from Danny.

“Having recently read the book thinking fast and slow by Daniel Kahneman. I have literally just sat and watched a lot of pre off horse racing markets lately without entering I can’t help think that I see a pattern.
It seems to me that people are just following sheep a lot of the time and just backing for the sake of backing, therefore, horses are completely over backed.
Do you think people back more then they lay so there is an edge in laying over backed horses? I’m sure you can expand on this with your knowledge”.

This is an interesting question from Danny. Sometimes I have a very strong opinion about a certain subject and other times not so much. This is one of the latter. but I am happy to explore this and see if I can help shine some of my experiences on it.

Firstly I wanted to find out a little about the author Daniel Kahneman whom Danny referenced. I have never heard of him, so as always google was my friend. This is what Wikipedia threw up.

Daniel Kahneman is an Israeli-American psychologist and economist notable for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making, as well as behavioral economics, for which he was awarded the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. Wikipedia

What I know for sure is that there are many more backers than layers. Laying is a pretty new concept to the masses. so it will come as no surprise that Backers rule. Most horses drift, not because they are being layed. It’s because no one is backing them. There are some horses that are being actively layed. But they are vastly outnumbered by passive drifters.

Let me explore what Danny asked.
If you convert the Betfair starting price to give an implied chance of winning. So 2 would be 100/2 = 50%. A runner in a market at 2 has a 50% chance of winning. The LONG TERM accuracy of this on Betfair is around 99.8%. So if we take the assumption that 50% @ 2.0 win. Then 50% will lose. Where this becomes interesting and will fry your brain. Is what if the percentage is skewed by overbet horses. Runners, that have no right to be a 50% chance as their true odds is 66%? But have been overbet. Or is that accounted for already within the stats? What about front runners? The trend nowadays is for them to attract money based on their running style. It has nothing to do with the chances of actually winning. just the way the run and travel in a race.

I did read something a few years back that backing horses that drifted badly were more profitable than backing steamers. based on bigger odds I guess.

There is a plethora of ifs and buts within this, its fascinating and as Danny suggests may be an angle in it. I am more inclined to think that the in play market has a bigger influence on prices than many realise, and that may be a good place to start. but with something else to consider.

The running style of a horse is sometimes critical to its chances of winning. There are animals that HAVE to lead. If they don’t get an uncontested lead, they sulk and run badly. Does the collective market take this into account when deciding the odds it will start at? You see these uneasy in the market, but then as the race unfolds, and the horses gets his lead, the odds drop more than they should by rights. Is it because the market had to see if the horse got his lead before it was prepared to get the runner to its true odds in play?

The big question is. How do you know if something is overbet or being supported quite rightly into its correct chance of winning?

Over the years I have seen many huge gambles win and seen them lose. I think that this is a topic that is not cut and dried and needs much more study before deciding if it as a viable strategy.

I’d like to thank Danny for his question, I have answered it the best I can. But I would love to hear other thoughts on this. Please comment. We can continue to explore this together


Webinar: Open Invitation

Next Thursday 20th June at 8:00pm I would like to invite you to join me in my 1st “public” webinar. This is something I have never done before. I often conduct webinars for my group of traders in MGW. I have never held one open to all. Details of how to join in will be at the bottom of this page.
Please note that this invitation is open to all and is free

This is a great opportunity for me to reach new people, perhaps people who have not really heard of me, or know what I am about. Most of my YouTube material is becoming dated (I am going to be removing a lot of it soon). A chance to showcase what I do and for some of you guys to get to hear me talk about different aspects of being a Pro Trader, the challenges I have faced, how I overcame them. What works and more importantly, what doesn’t.
I hope I will be able to give you good information, entertain and pass an hour or so with something worthwhile that you can take away. Even if you get just 1 thing that you can implement into your trading, and it makes 5% difference. Then it’s worth the effort, it’s free, so you have nothing to lose (except an hour of your life). You may have to record Emmerdale, and I hope not to run into Love Island……….

What will I be talking about?
I have a few topics that I will be covering. For this webinar, it will be “general” trading advice. I will also hope to answer a few questions too.

I am planning to cover:

  • Your Bank
  • Race Selection
  • Your Trading Operation
  • Expectations
  • Execution
  • Motivation

To be able to participate there are a couple of things you need to do. Firstly is be on my email subscriber list. I will add a subscribe box at the end of this page for you.
On Tuesday evening I will send out an invitation to everyone who is on this list. You will then need to register to join the webinar.
This is completely FREE!

So what is this all about? Why am I doing this?

So “Why”? The cynical bastards amongst you will be wanting to know what I get out of it. If you are thinking that btw. Please don’t bother signing up to come. I am increasingly frustrated with negative people that worry more about what others are getting, losing sight of what they are gaining. I don’t want these people in my life. Simple as that. If you have that attitude you will always struggle to get to where you want to be. I don’t waste my time on people like that anymore.

I do sincerely hope that can join me on Thursday evening.

As part of GDPR you will need to confirm your email to go onto my mail list. make sure you look in your spam folder to find this. it comes almost straight away after you subscribe. Any issues with this. Please get in touch at mugsgame@hotmail.co.uk so I can help you sort it.








 
 
 
 
 

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Scheduling Time

Something I have always (until recently) been crap at doing is managing my time. I always used to rock up and get on with it. This worked fine as I had nothing to do all day but trade. As I have spoken about a lot recently. This has now changed. I have a life to live and other things to do. So my time is always under pressure. I needed a way to deal with this.

I now have a diary, well 2 diaries really. One is electronic called Schedule Once other is a hardbound one from Collins in A4 size. What I do now is allocated blocks of my time. I ONLY engage in the task in my time slot. I turn off everything else. Phone, Social Media, TV etc.

So if on a given day I may have allocated 2 hours to trade between 2:00pm and 4:00pm and maybe a further hour between 7:00 and 8:00pm. So that is when I trade. I focus 100% on this task and blank out everything else. I wish I had done this years ago. I am trading less, but the quality is way higher.

Here is a great example: I love Cheltenham. It is a special week of my year. Even going back to the early 1990’s I would take a week sick from work, Once my gaffer spotted the pattern I had to take 4 days flexible holiday I had every year to cover it. I haven’t missed a Cheltenham race since then. But this year that all changes. On Tuesday I have to be somewhere else. My Mum has a hospital appointment, it’s my responsibility to take her. Now usually I would shirk this and insist that my Brother or Sister had a day off work and I would cover their loss of wages. But that is a shit way of living I am sure you would agree. I want to sit and listen to what the consultant has to say. for myself, trying to get my Mother to explain is always a challenge!

This feels almost liberating. I am free! Now we all know that “real Pro’s” would NEVER miss a Saturday, let alone a day from the festival. Probably means I am a fake eh?

I can pack more into these shorter sessions than I used to. It also means I do not feel guilty about doing other activities. This would work really well for you guys with full-time jobs AND family life to fit in. Don’t flit from one thing to another. If you only have 1 hour to trade. That’s fine. But do ONLY that. The quality of your sessions will show improvement week on week.

Give it a go. You have nothing to lose.

On a side note. I have just 4 places left for my Workshop on 8th April. Please get in touch if you wish to come along. Or just the booking info on this page.https://www.itsamugsblog.co.uk/2016-racing-workshops/

Trading v Life

Just wanted to share my thoughts about trading and lifestyle and to let you know how it works for me, and some challenges I have faced.

When I started trading more seriously in 2004 onwards it was relentless. I lived and breathed it. If I wasn’t at work I was trading or doing something trading related. Everything else fitted in. That hard work paid off as I was able to trade full time after I was made redundant from my job in July 2006. Imagine having an ATM in your spare room, where you could help yourself to cash, without the balance of your bank account being affected. That’s how it was.

Friends call around, it’s so obvious you want them to fuck off so you can get back to trading, it makes them uncomfortable after a few visits, they stop coming. Friendships ended, Invitations dry up, family engagements become unpleasant. funerals missed, holidays forsaken, relationships destroyed, families broken. For what? This was my situation.

The pursuit of money, greed for want of another word. The question I ask myself often was was it all worth it? No, it wasn’t. if I had those 10 years again it would be very different. But at this point in my life, I can make different choices.

The expectations of what a “pro trader” is or isn’t are often open for debate on forums and Twitter. I have read some frankly ridiculous statements lately, About what constitutes a “Pro Trader”. How much they should earn to be classified as a Pro, whether or not they pay higher rate Premium Charge and even one first-class numpty trying to say that a true pro would never miss a Saturday trading. A true pro would be involved in the markets every single day, What a load of fucking shite!

You never hear me bragging about how much I do or don’t make. I have stated I am in Betfair’s’ higher rate Premium Charge bracket. You may see a few videos showing decent wins, and the odd screenshot too. But you will have also saw some videos of red screens from me. It’s all part of the game. You will have NEVER seen a Betfair PL shot of my account and you never will. Frankly, it is of no one’s business but my own. My credibility to teach other traders has nothing to do with how much money I make. My ability to explain how to do is much more relevant. Now I can wheel out 100’s of people that will happily testify that I can do that pretty well. The bottom line is this. Come to a workshop or don’t come. I hold 6 a year and that will never increase, currently, I have 20 people at a time. This is a number that works for everyone. It allows the interaction required, and I can comfortably answer every question asked. I often joke at the start of a workshop that no one is leaving until every question has been answered, even if we are still here at 9:00pm tonight! they are always full, without exception. I often turn people away.

In the last few years, I have made some pretty big changes in my personal life. I don’t want to detail them all, because they are personal. But there are some I want to share, because they may help someone reading this, both to understand a little more about me and what drives me as a pro trader.

My workshops and education have been a big part of things for 5 years now. I don’t write too much these days, and rarely make videos for public consumption. But I do have a vibrant community that I look after. I don’t trade every day, in fact, I have completely changed the way I work. I now have a diary where I allocate time slots to different tasks. So when I am answering emails – I answer emails, in that time allotted. When I am trading, I trade. But in the time I have set out. No more and no less. This structure means I get much more done, and I have my life back.

The result is I am very happy with my life now, I can do the things I want. I am happy to trade when I want to, and take time off to do other things when I want to. Trading supplements my life, it doesn’t dictate it anymore. Does this mean that I am unable to articulate how to trade to others? Does this diminish my ability? have I forgotten 14 years worth of knowledge and experience? Seriously?

If you feel you cannot escape from a life that is dominated by gambling or trading. If all you can think about is trading and money, please talk to someone, please reach out for help. I am happy to give my time freely to talk things through with you and try to help or advise some professional councilling. Trading is a fabulous hobby, and even a profession if you get good at it. But please keep in mind that there are things outside of this that are more important.Please keep this in mind. Stay safe.

Steve


Failure

I just want to add a few words about failure. Why do people fail? This can be applied to just about anything and not trading specifically.

Why do people fail?

  • The wrong environment
  • They do not have a strong enough reason why.
  • They do not follow the plan
  • The going gets tough……..
  • They are thinking in the short term
  • They do not feel the pain

The importance of a reason why

  • It provides clarity and focus
  • It helps keep you focused
  • It helps to motivate you
  • It keeps you determined

Does any of this ring true? just some things to look at. The list is certainly not exhaustive

Racing Workshops 2019 Update

TODAY ONLY: VENUE HOTEL HAS A SALE: ROOMS £29 FOR THE NIGHT BEFORE. IF YOU ARE COMING BOOK THE ROOM AND GET THE DISCOUNT PRICE, PLENTY OF WORKSHOP DATE AVAILABLE. PLUS A PAYMENT OPTION TOO. LINK TO HOTEL DEAL HERE https://bit.ly/2sfJNLO

ONLY VALID FOR 7TH JAN

Everything about the Racing Workshop is designed to give you in-depth learning about trading pre-race markets. You will learn how they operate, what influences them and why, most importantly, you’ll learn how you can profit from them.

Venue

The Village Hotel, Coventry

One of the areas premier hotels and usually very reasonable room rates for the night before our Workshops, we have a social evening on the night before where you can meet up with me and usually many of the others attending and usually, a few guys from the existing community turn up of a drink with us too. I have a discount code for the hotel that will give you 20% off if you stay.

What will you learn?

To begin with, you need the foundations every successful trader has; we’ll walk you through exactly what’s necessary for:

  • Good bank management
  • The ideal trading set up
  • The importance of good discipline
  • Effective staking

What’s next?

In the next phase, you’ll explore the trading screen, learning to identify significant areas and aspects you must pay close attention to, all helping you understand the shape of a market. These are the building blocks of pre-race trading which I will go over continuously to ensure you have a full understanding of what these are and what they mean. From learning these elements and signals the course moves to the next phase…

Formulating your trading plan

All the signals and pointers lead to helping you answer the next set of crucial questions; where is your entry point? Where is your exit point? What is the likelihood of success in this trade? What can impact your trade, good or bad?

Super signals

The penultimate part of the day concentrates on learning about what I refer to as “Super Signals”. These are events in the market that force significant odds movement. Again, you will learn and understand what these signals are, how to spot them, what they mean and why they deliver such great opportunities again and again.

Q&A

The day concludes with Q & A. Because I goes over all content in such detail and because questions are actively encouraged from the very beginning, there are rarely any questions at this point. The intention has always been (and always will be) that the workshops are highly interactive.

Support

Do not be under the illusion you can turn up to the workshop and leave as the finished article – this is very naïve. It takes patience, an open mind and a great deal of commitment to achieve trading success.

The workshop will lay some very solid foundations and provide you with the knowledge to put you on the correct path. Coupled with the structure and a plan you learn on the day and, provided you take time to practice, you will give yourself every chance of achieving success in pre race trading.

After you complete the course, you will receive an 8GB download link that has a huge volume of videos of races being traded. These videos are a much higher level than the ones you see on the YouTube channel. In each video, I walk you through exactly what’s being done and why.

From April 2019 I have changed the existing format to try to offer even better value for money and to increase the chances of your success. Included in the price of the Workshop will be ANOTHER 20+ GB of material. traded races, Q&A sessions, new strategies, daily reviews, stand alone masterclasses going over the key learnings from the Workshop. plus much more. Will keep you busy for days on end, plus a treasure trove of reminders and confirmation of the new skills you will be learning.

ON TOP of that I am going to give you access to my Skype community for 2 Months. let me say that 2 Months will fly by, and to get the best from the Workshop and extra help on offer, you may need longer. But it’s a good starting point to see if this is of value to you. Once the 2 months is up you can subscribe for just £25 per Month. Members get access to all new material, much of which is not public. Plus a bi weekly Q & A session.

MG Racing Workshops are £325 – Obviously there is an increase from my previous price. But you will be getting the most competitive price I have ever offered if you take into account what’s on offer. the reason I have made this change is because I feel that to give you the very best chance of success I need to give you access to everything I have from day 1. Most of my workshop attendees upgraded anyway. This just makes it easier and cheaper for you.

Do not be fooled by the competitive price, you will come away with no doubts about what is needed to become a successful pre race trader. The workshop is in no way ambiguous, there is no BS. Just honest, professional advice delivered in an informal and fun way.

2019 Workshops and payment options

April 8th 2019

May 27th (Spring Bank Holiday) 2019

July 15th 2019

You can book a place by using the PayPal buttons. Please ensure you close the correct date from the drop down menu.

To help with the cost I am happy to offer payment terms. This may be you want to pay a (£50) deposit and the balance nearer the Workshop. As long as the FULL Balance has been paid 30 days prior to the Workshop, I am happy to accommodate you. If you want to take this option, please do not use the PayPal buttons, just contact me direct at mugsgame@hotmail.co.uk

These Workshops usually sell out a Month in advance, places are sought after. Please book early to avoid disappointment.

To book a place please use the PayPal link. If you have not received a booking confirmation email with 24 hours please email me directly at mugsgame@hotmail.co.uk


Workshops



If you book and want to stay at the venue hotel, I can provide you with a 20% discount code. as with all hotels, the sooner you book the cheaper it is.

Betfair Pro Traders Event

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Pro Traders Event – In Partnership with Betfair

Announcing something that is not only exciting but unique within our community. I have teamed up with fellow well know exchange traders, Caan Berry and Mark Iverson, to offer you the opportunity to attend this groundbreaking event. This isn’t a conference; it’s so much more. We are delighted to tell you that the event will be sponsored by Betfair.

This is what we have planned.

The venue will be the Village Hotel, Coventry. On Saturday 16th February 2019. Starting at 12:30pm and running through until the lads cannot drink anymore and are removed forcibly from the bar.

You can arrive from 12:30 pm for registration, grab a coffee and take your seat. At 1:00pm we will kick off proceedings and introduce everyone.

There will be 1-hour presentations made by Caan, Mark and Steve where we give you some real strategies and tips about how to use them to make a few quid. Let us make something clear. This isn’t an hour of waffle. It’s sound, practical advice from people who know what they are talking about. In between, there will be breaks to let you get a drink, Bacon Buttie (all included in price) or a quick cigarette/loo break.

The last part of our presentations will be a Q & A session where the guys will answer your questions. There is no real time limit on this, so make sure you have a question planned. Our answers will be straightforward and honest.
At the end of the presentations, we will break for some food. We have spared hardly any expense, and have a nice little hot/ cold buffet for you.

After all this talking, we will be thirsty. So we invite you all to join us in our private bar, where we will let you buy us as many beers as you can afford. This is a great opportunity for you to meet people just like you. Traders. We all have this shared passion, but it’s hard to find people who understand what you’re talking about. Networking with others is a great way to exchange knowledge and form new friendships. The guys will be available to chat with all evening. So if you come, there is no excuse not to be able to ask those burning questions.

Betfair representatives will also be in attendance, they love to meet their customers and get their feedback too. I’m pretty sure that Betfair will be sending you away with a gift too.

How does this sound?

Make no mistake; this will be a hot ticket. Tickets are limited and will sell faster than if Led Zeppelin announced a reunion concert.

We hope you can come, and look forward to meeting you. You will be our guests, you will be treated as such. We will look after you and ensure you have a great time. We are all friendly and approachable guys and look forward to meeting and chatting with all who can come.

In Summary

  • This event will be at least 12 hours long
  • Listen to 3 Pro Traders talk you through real money-making strategies
  • A Q & A where you can ask your question
  • Lunch and Dinner Plus non-alcoholic beverages during the day inc in ticket
  • Private bar area not free unfortunately
  • A social networking event where you can meet like minded people
  • Enjoy some social time (if you want to that is) with us

How to get a ticket
There are a limited amount of tickets we can provide. We wanted to make this event as affordable as possible. So we can offer tickets at £150.

This is going to be awesome, can’t wait.

Cheers

Steve

To Book use link below

CLICK HERE

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Betfair VIP Event

A while ago Betfair kindly invited me to speak at their VIP Social event at the Emirates Stadium. So last Friday I ventured down to sunny London to take part.

There were a few other well-known traders taking part so I was in good company. I already had met Mark Iverson, who is a genius Cricket trader, and great fun to be with. But had not met the other guys. Chris Duncan, who was a founder of another exchange called Betsson. His trading is automated and he turns over £ million’s a week. Seriously impressive and thoroughly nice fellow too. The other member of the panel was someone who needs no introduction, Caan Berry. Although I have had several chats with Caan over the years, we have never actually met. I found him to be a very genuine guy who shared so much commonality with me. I immediately liked him and we spent much of the evening laughing. The other member of our group cannot be named for legal purposes or photographed. He is a bit like ‘The Stig” in trading circles. His identity a closely guarded secret. His is a software developer who’s product sounds a bit like “The Boy”. Anyway, he is a top bloke and the World’s biggest wind-up merchant.

We did a Q& A session with the guys who had attended, sharing some of our experiences and trying hard to answer the questions as honestly as possible. after the Q&A we were able to mingle with the VIP clients and get to know a bit about them. Very enjoyable.

They soon kicked us out, so we hopped back on the Tube and made our way back to the hotel. Found a pub opposite, stayed in there until they kicked us out and the retired to the hotel bar for a while longer. Was great to get to know Mark, Caan and he who cannot be named better.

Some of you may be wondering why I would be bothered to work with Betfair to put something on like this. I am very happy to share exactly why I got involved.

We all moan about things like lack of liquidity and crap markets. To trade effectively you need a product where you can put your money in and get it matched quickly. Whether that’s entering or more importantly exiting a trade. There are several exchanges operating now. But the amount traded every day is not increasing. What is happening is that money is diluted. It would be easy to argue that Betfair has bought it on themselves with their Premium Charge. I would agree with this to some degree. But to be honest, Betfair was such a great product when it started, there were always going to be other competitors who wanted to get their snout in that trough. They would find ways to entice you in. So any chance I get to help bring FRESH money into the exchange, I feel duty-bound to help if asked.

I learned a lot from this evening. I meet a lot of traders and I enjoy that part very much. Would being involved in a social evening like this be something you would enjoy? A chance to grill several Pro Traders and meet other like-minded folks where you can network and exchange ideas? Maybe something regional?

Please let me know your thoughts.

Cheers

Steve

Just to say I have limited places left for the last Workshop I am doing possibly until at least February. LINK

Read what Caan said about this in his latest blog post : https://caanberry.com/betfair-social-evening/