Racing Video Preview 29th April

I am having 2 trades today
2:10 Kelso: Things Change 4.1 stop loss 5.2 INTO 2.96 for a profit of £43

3:30 Towcester: Jolly Boys outing: 4.5 Stop loss 5.6 INTO 3.95 for a profit of £13

Overall profit of £56 today 🙂

10 thoughts on “Racing Video Preview 29th April

  1. whay ou think about 20:10 Windsor – Getaway Car,now the fav steaming … i entered on 7.4 but the fav now start to come in

  2. Top trading MG!
    I missed the first one but watched with interest.

    In the interest of sharing with the group: I got the second one, In at 4.5 and out at 4.0. I am using a £500 so £50 stakes. Made £5.94. I was aiming at 15% profit but I got cold feet and got out a little early.

    Cheers,

    Dean

    • Cheers Dean,
      I never set a target as to what I want to win. That’s because I am a greedy bastard. I would say the only target I have is not to lose. The other fixed thing in my mind is my exit position. Apart from that anything goes. I make assessments of the whole market often, just like when I put the trade on to begin with, but much faster!
      Your exit position on the 2nd one was spot on. I got 3.95, but would have been happy with 4. It didn’t go a lot more and this was right at the death anyway. MG

  3. Hi Mugs,
    Had the day off today so had time to look at the early markets and game up with one trade which was Things Change, got on at 4 and out at 2.96 so happy with that.
    Spent the day trading pre race and managed to make a few quid also so all in all happy with progress.
    Still guilty of over trading though, need to find more discipline and resist trading on the not so clear cut races, anyway thanks for your help.
    How did you go in the markets today?
    John

    • Hi John, I did ok considering it’s Monday. Not my fav day. Good work on Things Change, that was a nice little trade. Over trading is something I am often guilty of. Not in trading too many races, but trying to squeeze just 1 or 2 more ticks out of a trade. The motto “Less is more” is a good guide here! Cheers MG

  4. Evening MG, good trades those today mate well done nice profit..I have not been doing much last few days too bust getting all fishing gear sorted :)…What you say about not setting a target mate is dead right as the way i see it if you set targets of how much you want to win and then you have not made that target yet with lets say 2 or 3 races left then there is a temptation to gamble to try and hit your target,i used to do that a couple of years back when betting on horses to win,had a system and set myself a £50 profit for the day but alas it went downhill pretty fast trying to up the stakes to chase that £50 profit on a daily basis and its the quickest way to lose your bank as i did on 3 or 4 occasions…Its best i think to try and just take whats available on the day and the markets will decide what that is and tomorrow is always another day of opportunities,so i would say to others to try and not set profit targets as it usually ends up with much bigger losses than you should have taken and i know each person is different and have their own ways but keeping your bank healthy for the next days racing is most important 🙂

    • My tackle is ready for action. I just need to find the time to use it now. Protecting your bank is the number 1 priority at all times. Profit comes when it comes. If you believe in yourself it will come 🙂

  5. Hi MG,
    On Sunday I backed Tricolo Dalene at 3.65 in the 1705 Huntingdon. The graph was a very strong straight line downwards for several hours to 2.8 at best, with thousands of evenly spaced stakes above this amount wanting to get on. Suddenly a good 90% of these stake vanished and the price shot up. They were not taken, just removed from the market.
    A similar thing happened today with You Know Yourself in the 1540 Kelso but this horse was by no means as strong but over a short period looked good with thousands of pounds pushing the price down, then suddenly all the money vanished.

    In both cases I got out for a very small loss.

    Is this just a single player? and are there any signs to avoid in the future.

    Another great day otherwise – thanks to you!!!

    • Jeff, I have to say that I don’t put any faith in weight of money, for the reasons you have outlined. There are some markets where WOM can be taken more seriously. Football match odds in certain circumstances is one such market. However, in racing I mostly ignore it, or at best use it as an extra signal if I have already made my decision. In my videos you may have heard me say “It looks a bit bit thin here” meaning there is no money to stop the price moving. However, I usually say “But that doesn’t mean anything as it can change in an instant”. It usually does 🙂 WOM only moves a market if there is momentum with it. WOM + Momentum = Odds change. Regarding who does this “manipulation” I have no idea. But I would look at another reason rather than the money disappearing causing the move. What if another runner (s) were being supported. The market only has a small amount of “slack” in the book. Once it reaches the 100% book Betfair’s cross matching will kick in. To be honest I am not in the “big players manipulate markets” camp. I often say when doing the previews I like lots of small bets (the volume bars) rather than 1 or 2 big bets. The “Market” is a collective of 100’s or 1000’s of individuals making a judgement.Not 1 individual. The market also has to conform to outside influences. Bookmakers prices for one, Bookmakers will shape the Betfair market, make no mistake about that. If someone wants to push the Betfair price out by holing the price up with lots of “fake” money and the bookies push the odds out. So you can get a better price in the bookies, arb city comes into play. All the guys taking the Betafir lay price have zero interest in trading out. They will take the Lay price to complete their arb. The manipulators money gets taken. I can usually stop fake money a mile away. If it doesn’t “look” right than it’s probably fake. Hope all this make sense Jeff – Cheers MG

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