Well, my first trading Education “event” has now finished and things will slowly return to “normal”. The amount of prep that I needed to do was immense. So it slowed everything down. Although I tried my best my blog suffered. Time to change that now. So I have a new video for you. But I thought I’d just share with you how the first event went. If this doesn’t at all interest you and you just wan to watch the video and read the breakdown there is a little bar on the right hand side called “scroll down”- Use it 🙂
I have lots of you booked up already, and many more interested so a bit of a lowdown on how it went will probably interest you. The amount of messages of goodwill from you guys wishing me good luck would bring a tear to a glass eye. Thanks so much to all of you.
As many of the guys travelled a fair distance, many stayed at the hotel venue. I opened up the Sykpe room a few days before to let the guys get to know each other a little before we kicked off. So many had arranged to meet up for “pre match” drinks. I thought I’d pop up and say hi for an hour, but it turned into a little longer and it’s fair to say we had a great night. – We all drank pop – honest. It was natural for me to be nervous, being my first event. But after meeting half the guys on Sunday night, it was less about me delivering a “product” to clients, and more like showing something to a group of mates.
The day was fantastic from my point of view, but the Skype room has taken things to another level. It’s buzzing. I can drop in video, files and screenshots of entry positions in real time. I know you guys like to look at how traded a race, then compare that to your own results and though processes. Many of you do better than me! But seeing that straight after the race makes it more relevant.
From the feedback I have received, I would say the event was a great success. You can read the growing list of testimonials HERE. I can honestly say that for me this was one of the highlights of my sad life so far. It’s something I’ll never forget.
Please don’t take all this as “hard sell” because you think I want you to book up a place on the program. I don’t need to sell it, the places are filling quickly and I have no doubt there will be a waiting list pretty soon. Mentorship is about personal help. There is a limit to how many I can help at one time. Although there are things in place to facilitate that. There isn’t going to be a never ending program of courses and admissions into the program I just wanted to get the guys already booked “in the mood” 🙂
Right enough BS, kets get into the trade.
As always – watch the video and then read the breakdown. My voice is a bit croaky as I spent so long talking on Monday 🙂
This is a 7 runner handicap from Newcastle over 7f. It was one of the early evening races, but the market was “lively”. We are just over 5 minutes out.
The favourite was Orbit The Moon and was trading at 2.08. The 2nd and 3rd favs, Victoire De Lyphar and Royal Holiday were 6.2 and 5.2 respectively. The rest of the market were priced in double figures.
My initial assessment of the market noted that Orbit The Moon was strong and there was a pretty big drift on Victoire De Lyphar. Royal Holiday was a little uneasy and trading in a smallish range. If you look at the matched volume on Orbit The Moon, there is a more defined range of recent traded volume growing at 2.08/2.1 and the price flattening out. I note that several of the runners have positive trends and wonder if the Fav is going to bounce. The book is neither tight nor slack at this point.
0:50 – At this point Royal Holiday has moved in a little and Orbit has moved a couple of ticks out, the defined range is growing and now exist between 2.06 and 2.14. If I wanted to back it i would have an exit above this and if i wanted to Lay it I have a could strength exit position at 2.04 and again at the crossover at 2. It’s worth noting thatVictoire De Lyphar is at the crossover at 6. So one it breaches this it makes it a little harder to com e back in.
I am in no hurry to get involved. I would just be guessing at this point. My intuition is telling me it’s going to come back. The only real opposition to it is Royal Holiday. If you look at the matched volumes on that you can see that nothing too exciting happening there at this stage. remember that the favourite always wants to move in, unless there is something to oppose it. Punters love a winner, so they are drawn to the favourite naturally.
1:20 – Things have changed again. There looks like there may be some opposition after all. There are some runners moving against it. I open my initial position with a LAY of £200 at 2.14. I have a exit plan.
2:!5 – I think better of it and my reassessment shows that there is no substance behind the other runners opposition. I “bottle it” and reassess again. Never be afraid to close a trade – winning or losing-if you think it’s not going as well as you hoped. Just forget that and start over.
So I go back in at 2.16 and have a tight exit position at the top of the defined ranged at around 2.22. I am more aggressive here and get £538 matched at 2.16. My comments about what happens when it reaches the cross over are pertinent
3:00- As my position improves I reassess my exit position, This has now moved to what is effectively “scratch” – No profit nor loss at 2.16, it’s right at the top of the defined range. The question that lingers now is what happens at the crossover at 2?. It will need some momentum to break through this. I am not sure it has it. Our mate Victoire de Lyphar has broken through the crossover at 6, but Royal Holiday has drifted – in effect Victoire is taking up the book percentage that has been vacated by Royal Holiday.having no effect on Orbit The Moon.
3:25 – I am excited by the prospect of orbit breaking through the crossover at 2. Crossovers going downwards can be like a dam. Once breached they can see huge swings very quickly. I am prepared to go back in if this happens. Much of my style of trading is being ready to exploit situations that I suspect may happen. When something happens that you are not surprised about gives you those vital extra seconds. It’s like back in the days when Man Utd used to be a great team. A striker like Rooney would make a run and he would not be surprised when the ball arrived at his feet. He knew that he had one of the best passers of a football ever to have played providing the ball – Paul Scholes. He had the best chance of a goal because he was expecting the ball. Now he has Ashley Young. He doesn’t bother making any runs because mostly the ball is in row z. (in fact he goes and fetches the ball himself). 🙂 That one was for you Utd fans 🙂 – Bet you liked that John!
3:50 – It did breach the crossover. I did get excited lol. But by 5:00 there was a very defined little couple of ticks at 2.02 and 2.04. This illustrates why crossovers are so powerful. i start to progressively exit my position. It did come through again but never caught alight like I had hoped
As always I welcome you comments and questions