Back To The Daily Grind

Well, my first trading Education “event” has now finished and things will slowly return to “normal”. The amount of prep that I needed to do was immense. So it slowed everything down. Although I tried my best my blog suffered. Time to change that now. So I have a new video for you. But I thought I’d just share with you how the first event went. If this doesn’t at all interest you and you just wan to watch the video and read the breakdown there is a little bar on the right hand side called “scroll down”- Use it 🙂

I have lots of you booked up already, and many more interested so a bit of a lowdown on how it went will probably interest you. The amount of messages of goodwill from you guys wishing me good luck would bring a tear to a glass eye. Thanks so much to all of you.

As many of the guys travelled a fair distance, many stayed at the hotel venue. I opened up the Sykpe room a few days before to let the guys get to know each other a little before we kicked off. So many had arranged to meet up for “pre match” drinks. I thought I’d pop up and say hi for an hour, but it turned into a little longer and it’s fair to say we had a great night. – We all drank pop – honest. It was natural for me to be nervous, being my first event. But after meeting half the guys on Sunday night, it was less about me delivering a “product” to clients, and more like showing something to a group of mates.

The day was fantastic from my point of view, but the Skype room has taken things to another level. It’s buzzing. I can drop in video, files and screenshots of entry positions in real time. I know you guys like to look at how traded a race, then compare that to your own results and though processes. Many of you do better than me! But seeing that straight after the race makes it more relevant.

From the feedback I have received, I would say the event was a great success. You can read the growing list of testimonials HERE. I can honestly say that for me this was one of the highlights of my sad life so far. It’s something I’ll never forget.

Please don’t take all this as “hard sell” because you think I want you to book up a place on the program. I don’t need to sell it, the places are filling quickly and I have no doubt there will be a waiting list pretty soon. Mentorship is about personal help. There is a limit to how many I can help at one time. Although there are things in place to facilitate that. There isn’t going to be a never ending program of courses and admissions into the program  I just wanted to get the guys already booked “in the mood” 🙂

Right enough BS, kets get into the trade.

As always – watch the video and then read the breakdown. My voice is a bit croaky as I spent so long talking on Monday 🙂

This is a 7 runner handicap from Newcastle over 7f. It was one of the early evening races, but the market was “lively”. We are just over 5 minutes out.

The favourite was Orbit The Moon and was trading at 2.08. The 2nd and 3rd favs, Victoire De Lyphar and Royal Holiday were 6.2 and 5.2 respectively. The rest of the market were priced in double figures.

My initial assessment of the market noted that Orbit The Moon was strong and there was a pretty big drift on Victoire De Lyphar. Royal Holiday was a little uneasy and trading in a smallish range. If you look at the matched volume on Orbit The Moon, there is a more defined range of recent traded volume growing at 2.08/2.1 and the price flattening out. I note that several of the runners have positive trends and wonder if the Fav is going to bounce. The book is neither tight nor slack at this point.

0:50 – At this point Royal Holiday has moved in a little and Orbit has moved a couple of ticks out, the defined range is growing and now exist between 2.06 and 2.14. If I wanted to back it i would have an exit above this and if i wanted to Lay it I have a could strength exit position at 2.04 and again at the crossover at 2. It’s worth noting thatVictoire De Lyphar is at the crossover at 6. So one it breaches this it makes it a little harder to com e back in.

I am in no hurry to get involved. I would just be guessing at this point. My intuition is telling me it’s going to come back. The only real opposition to it is Royal Holiday. If you look at the matched volumes on that you can see that nothing too exciting happening there at this stage. remember that the favourite always wants to move in, unless there is something to oppose it. Punters love a winner, so they are drawn to the favourite naturally.

1:20 – Things have changed again. There looks like there may be some opposition after all. There are some runners moving against it. I open my initial position with a LAY of £200 at 2.14. I have a exit plan.

2:!5 – I think better of it and my reassessment shows that there is no substance behind the other runners opposition. I “bottle it” and reassess again. Never be afraid to close a trade – winning or losing-if you think it’s not going as well as you hoped. Just forget that and start over.

So I go back in at 2.16 and have a tight exit position at the top of the defined ranged at around 2.22. I am more aggressive here and get £538 matched at 2.16. My comments about what happens when it reaches the cross over are pertinent

3:00- As my position improves I reassess my exit position, This has now moved to what is effectively “scratch” – No profit nor loss at 2.16, it’s right at the top of the defined range. The question that lingers now is what happens at the crossover at 2?. It will need some momentum to break through this. I am not sure it has it. Our mate Victoire de Lyphar has broken through the crossover at 6, but Royal Holiday has drifted – in effect Victoire is taking up the book percentage that has been vacated by Royal Holiday.having no effect on Orbit The Moon.

3:25 – I am excited by the prospect of orbit breaking through the crossover at 2. Crossovers going downwards can be like a dam. Once breached they can see huge swings very quickly. I am prepared to go back in if this happens. Much of my style of trading is being ready to exploit situations that I suspect may happen. When something happens that you are not surprised about gives you those vital extra seconds. It’s like back in the days when Man Utd used to be a great team. A striker like Rooney would make a run and he would not be surprised when the ball arrived at his feet. He knew that he had one of the best passers of a football ever to have played providing the ball – Paul Scholes. He had the best chance of a goal because he was expecting the ball. Now he has Ashley Young. He doesn’t bother making any runs  because mostly the ball is in row z. (in fact he goes and fetches the ball himself). 🙂 That one was for you Utd fans 🙂 – Bet you liked that John!

3:50 – It did breach the crossover. I did get excited lol. But by 5:00 there was a very defined little couple of ticks at 2.02 and 2.04. This illustrates why crossovers are so powerful. i start to progressively exit my position. It did come through again but never caught alight like I had hoped

As always I welcome you comments and questions


18 thoughts on “Back To The Daily Grind

  1. Another top video fella. I’ve really been enjoying these and have learned a hell of a lot.

    Nice to see you change your mind on the potential direction of a trade. For a long time before watching your videos I would see ‘changing my mind’ as a failure on my part to accurately assess what was happening, rather than feeling decent that I’d accepted I was, initially, wrong and then taken a new profitable position.

    Hopefully I’ll get a chance to get on the mentorship program soon!

    Cheers, Gav.

  2. Hi pal how’s things , a love this video I struggle with these markets were the fav is a clear downward trend and the second is a clear up ward trend and the rest are just seem weak and bobbing in small movements, I would of backed but wouldn’t of been understand why did never went through the 2 mark , and on the over hand I have backed befor around that area to see a vicious upward trend start and not understand why it has reversed so quick when it looked so strong and with part of my downside is entering a trade without a exit position I get badly burned . I’d appreciate your comments .

    • I guess it goes back to understanding the book I guess. If one runner is dominant and is steaming, and there is say 5 ticks “slack” in the book. Now if the 2nd fav started to oppose the fav and moved 5 ticks, you would spot it immediately, but what if 5 runners all moved 1 tick? It’s very hard to spot, but in effect is almost exactly the same. I tend to look for the exit before I look for the entry. You need to protect your bank at all times. It’s better not to lose than to win. My advice for what it’s worth is find the exit before you find the entry. You would’ run into a burning building unless you knew there was another way out would you? I do sometimes too lol Cheers Paul – MG

  3. Hi pal thanks for your reply, iam going to make my exit position priority over entry from now on see how that goes, if I have a fav around 2 or 3 odds I tent to ignore any of the other horses above 9 or 10 due to the small % they hold over the market plus taking into consideration slack in the book which there normally is there movement should be irrelevant on the favourite is this a incorrect view of my opinion on the market? Thanks Paul .

    • Paul, I am going to send you a spreadsheet over. In it you can move the prices and see how the book reacts. This might change your thinking slightly.
      Cheers MG

    • Cheers Marc – I’m so glad that you guys find them of use. My style of trading isn’t the only way that works. In fact there is NO definitive way. I think the point is many of you pick up snippets of what I do and build that into what you already do to make small improvements. This can make a big difference. Whatever you take from the videos, good or bad. At least they are there to discuss and pull apart. I am grateful for your support Marc and your appreciation. It always goes a long way with me and inspires me to try and do better. Cheers MG

  4. hi steve
    when i first watched this video,my thoughts were well done, i enjoyed that. please excuse me because i am not the most educated person in the world lol, but i have been trading for the past few weeks using crossover points, quite succesfully between 80 and 90% success rate per day, until tuesday when i had a 50% success rate which resulted in a loss for the day, the reason been i did not have a clearly defined exit point and let my losses roll. for reasons, i have not been able to trade since tuesday, but it gave me time to think about this video. i traded today and had clearly defined entry and exit points and felt under less pressure when trading, all thanks to this video. exit points is something i have struggled with and entry points i have only got to grips with in the past few months. onwards and upwards. thanks for that video, it made me think

    • Hi there Peter,
      That’s exactly the point was I making in my reply to Marc’s comment. You don’t have to watch my videos and think “Ah, this is the only way there is to trade”. That’s certainly not the case. But what you see is are some of the trades that I have done, complete with all of my decision making process and waffle. I am absolutely sure that this isn’t the best way, and I am even more sure that there are other traders much better than me.
      My point is you can take what rings true for you and add it into your own style. This is a great example of that.
      What I would say to you Peter – if you don’t mind me saying. is in respect of your results on Tuesday. One of the “themes” if you like I try to teach on my Mentorship program is about “safety”. That comes in different guises. One of them is the exit point or escape route, another is about protecting what you have. Into this comes staking and strike rate. There is a simple rule that if you could apply would make a big difference. Over a period of time you should have some idea of you average win. Lest use a “ball park” figure of £10 to make it easier to understand. So if you win £10 on average and you win 80% of the time you could afford to lose £35 on a losing trade and still make money. (8 x £10 =80 and then take away 2x £35 (70) -= £10 profit over £10 trades. However, this is a bit skinny for all that work. So we need to tweak that a little. If you changed that to try to achieve a loss that is of similar size to your average win. I say AVERAGE as it’s impossible to get a definitive figure. Then as long as you win more times than you lose you will be in profit. Look at this in the LONG term. Not over an hour or maybe even a day. That just puts under pressure and may effect your thought making process. Your Tuesday results of a 50% SR and a loss would then be eliminated. So lets change that to a £10 win and a £10 loss. If you hit 80% thats 8 x 10 =80 minus 2 x 10 =20 =£60 profit.The 50% SR would see you break even. So what – There is always another day. But your bank is INTACT.
      Have an exit before you have an entry, the apply that strictly. If it’s a good sound entry then it will be very hard to get to it anyway. It should be almost dam. You should notice that dam starting to crack – at this point you should be ready to “run like fucking hell” or close the trade in normal person speak 🙂 Once “the dam” has been breached you may be overwhelmed by the force of the money and need to act quickly. I’ll be going over this in much more depth with you soon. The more experience you have the more flexibility you can apply. But while learning I think it’s important to be more ridged. This takes some of the choices away.
      I’ve done more than enough waffling for a Sunday morning. Hope this makes sense to you – Cheers Steve

  5. hi steve
    thanks for the reply, it makes perfect sense. the dam has been staring me in the face for years, and i cant believe i didnt notice the importance of it. 3 losing trades yesterday, 2 controlled perfectly, but 1 flew out 5 ticks like a fricking rocket once it breached lol. still its nice to feel a little bit more in control.
    thanks again

    • Steve,

      Congratulations on another excellent trading video.Delighted to hear that your trading day went so well, looking forward to going on your trading day in September.


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