Fresh from the third instalment of my inductions into my Mentorship program on Monday, I have just about got my voice back. After spending what seemed like 24 hours constant talking.
Back to the daily grind now, so hopefully will be putting out some new content on my blog over the next few weeks. My days are very full, but also very enjoyable, so no complaining from me!
You will notice if you are a regular viewer that I have reduced the number of ladders from 7 to 4. This is purely so you can see the odds more clearly. Ideally I would prefer to have more.
This is a race from Kempton Park involving lots of dead wood. We have what is effectively joint favourites from the same owner (Godolphin) and same stable, So when one is better supported than the other it is often a signal that “the stable knows something”. I am not too sure about this, but you know what punters are like, they love a conspiracy theory.
On the face of it, it looks like Furas is the stronger of the 2, Musaddas isn’t drifting as such yet. They are both sitting at just above the cross over at 4.0. I adjust the runners so that Hagree is in view as this is an obvious player. When you have less ladders it;s ok as long as you keep a check on the other runners not in view.
It takes about 30 seconds into the video to make a decision about what I want to do here. When you have pressure from multiple runners there must be a victim. All I need to do is identify the “victim” and see if I can find an exit and a entry.
The victim is clearly Musaddas, although it hasn’t drifted wildly yet, it is the only one without a positive trend. There are 2 other reasons that I like the look of this as a lay. First it has been trying to break through the cross over at 4 of some time without success. If it hasn’t managed it before now, why would it be capable now? Especially with the opposition to it. The other reason is I can lay it very close to my exit position which I think it will have to work hard to get too. Which is at 3.95. I open my position with a lay of £206 @ 4.2. My maximum loss here would be £13.00. I have my foot in the door and a am under control of this trade from the first seconds.
What I am looking at now if the possibility to add to my position. My first trade is always an opening gambit to see if a can create a little space to get more money matched and build my trade. There is still pressure for the other 3 runners on my screen, What would really make my runner drift is if Furas were to break out of it’s range and through the crossover point at 4. A cross over point if you was not aware is where the increment in odds change. In this case from 0.1 to 0.05.
So why don’t I just back the favourite? Well if you ever got involved in a fight when you were at school, was it better to have some back up, like a couple of mates with you? Or would you go alone? Well in this case Furas has a couple of mates, and they are heading behind the bike sheds to give poor old Musaddas a good kicking by the looks of it.
My second attempt goes in at 4.3 You will hear me remark that “I am not going to chase up the price”. Well Furas breaking though the end of it’s range made up my mind that i should chase it.
My dithering costs me 2 ticks. it goes in at 4.6. My liability is £1400 now and my exit is no longer as safe as it was. If I closed at 4.7 I could take £26 profit, I move my new exit up to 4.2 and a potential loss of £19. It is unlikely I will lose on this trade now.
As it reaches the top of it’s range, I wonder how far this will go. With some uncertainty I decide to take some profit by backing half my position at 4.9. It becomes clear that the drift still has some legs, so i try to scalp a tick at a time using drift and laying first. I manage a few extra ticks and close with a profit of £64.80.
The lessons are clear. Find a weak kid, make sure you are safe (no one looking) get a couple of mates and take him behind the bike sheds and kick ten tonnes out of him.
I am not condoning violence towards teenage boys, but you get the point I hope 🙂