Although it may appear I am neglecting the blog. I can assure you it’s really not the case. I have a catalogue of excuses. A couple of “housekeeping” items to begin with.
You will notice that I have changed trading software. I have happily used Bet Angel for many years as you will have seen from all my videos. It has served me well over the years. To change was not a decision I made lightly.
I was offered the chance to help Gary & Mark Russell develop their Gruss- Betting Assistant trading software. GRUSS has an excellent reputation within the trading community. Some of you may know that I have been a long term user, but primarily for my triggered betting through Excel. The prospect of being involved with this project and having real influence to shape a trading platform into what think is important when trading was something quiet exciting. The version I am using is due for release very soon. Having a Pro trader (and mentorship group) on tap to try out new ideas has to be good right? Expect a constant stream of improvements and innovations over the next few months in GRUSS. I have Gary chained to his desk. 🙂
I am and will be promoting GRUSS. You will know that I do not and will not promote anything that I do not use or think is unto the job and is good value. Every tool I use makes money. If it doesn’t I don’t use it. If you want to try GRUSS (Bare in mind this version is in development, but due for release very soon) You can get a FREE 30 day trial. The cost is then £6 a month or £60 a year. You can go to the Download page HERE
Anyway, enough waffle. Here’s the trade.
The horse I was trading was called Big Storm Coming. Considering that most of the UK has been having some pretty spectacular thunders storms this weekend I had a chuckle to myself.
The race was a 1m Apprentice handicap at Haydock. Low grade and high volatility. But these are sometimes good conditions for a swing trade. As long as you are realistic with staking. It’s not always possible to create huge green positions. I am reluctant to stake aggressively as it’s not getting matched that is usually the problem. Try getting out when the market moves against you. It’s important to realise that the money offered up in the columns will disappear very quickly and leave you high and dry. These type of races are sometimes the worst for this. I think the truth is many of us would be very happy to make a modest £10 a race.
My entry was triggered by what I consider to be a strong signal. That was that Kuwait Star had moved through the cross over at 4 and had some momentum. Despite this move Big Storm Coming was holding firm against it. This is often a key signal. Added to this it was breaking though the end of it’s range. I opened a position by Backing at 2.84. As KS wobbled a little I added to the trade again at 2.84. 2:08 into the video I could have taken a profit of £17 by closing at 2.72. But why would I want to? It was going well and the others were not really opposing me.
In hindsight (trading in hindsight is a beautiful thing), the warning signs were there. I stayed in the trade longer than the Mother in law after Sunday dinner, It wasn’t until it had gone into a negative position that I closed. A loss of £5.56. Now this is something quite important. The trade was over. That’s it. No regrets (that I want to admit). No drama and no baggage moving forward. just a quick re assessment of the market and a fresh trade.
It was clear that the positive pressure against BSC may force this drift to keep going. Momentum in swing trading is very powerful. The candlesticks are a good way of gauging momentum. This is something I will be talking about over the next few weeks for sure.
As the momentum stars to build at around 3:50 on the video I take a position with a Lay bet at 2.94. Cross Overs are a powerful influence in how odds behave. Just as they are difficult for odds moving onto them to penetrate. This is the opposite for odds just below them. Behaving almost like a black hole. Often once the odds move close to a crossover point, any weakness will be exposed. it’s almost inevitable they will get sucked over into the next tick size. This is exactly what happens here. By the time it breaks though the magical “3.0” I have £600’s worth of Lay bets matched.
As always I want to protect my position and ensure I do not lose. So I place a back bet in at 3.15 for £200. This gives me a little more space to breathe. and moves my scratch position form 3.05 to 2.94. The possibility of walking away with a loss was now banished.
My next plan is to scalp another 2 or 3 ticks. You could say that if I had left my money in and not took it out at 3.15 I would have been better off. For sure. But this real and with my real money. So caution was always in the forefront of my thinking.
I now stick the back bets to close my trades in at 3.23 and 3.3. To give myself another couple of ticks ad the money starts to get taken at 3.25 I lay ay 3.2. Then again on both sides of the book. There isn’t a huge amount to get though. As you can see by the candlesticks the price is stable between 3.2 and 3.25.
Between 5:30 and 5:45 on the video there was a fraction over 6k matched on BSC. All of it was matched at 3.2 and 3.25. It’s hard to make these sorts of calculations in real time. But reading the market by using the traded volumes and candlesticks these opportunities become clearer.
On closing the trade the book stands at green of £43.07. It wasn’t all plain sailing, but trades seldom are. I think there are a couple of things that you can take away from this trade.
As always I welcome any questions or comments. Keep a look out for the new developments in GRUSS.
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Now booking for October and November dates in my mentorship program.