I like to come up with a catchy title for my videos, and earlier on I was thinking about poor Peaches Geldolf and her Dad – Sir Bob. Unless you have lived on another planet (and I know some of you lot do….. 🙂 ) You will know that Bob Geldolf’s band The Boomtown Rats had a big hit with I Don’t Like Monday’s back in 1979. In general I don’t like trading on Monday, and I usually try to influence my mates to have a day out on the bikes on Mondays as it costs me less. However, this week they wanted to go out yesterday (Sunday) – we had a great day and went up to Willingham Woods near Market Rasen. Some great roads and a top day. Best of all we all came home safe. I sat in my chair just before I started trading and started singing ‘I Don’t like Monday’s” – I had a negative head on right from the start. However, that soon changed.
As always, watch the video and read my detailed breakdown of the trade – blow by blow.
It’s the 2:30 at Hexham. A 6 runner handicap hurdle over 2m4f. The favourite is a Donald Mccain horse ridden by AP McCoy. A potent combination and one that commands respect. I usually always check out who is training and riding the horse I am trading. This sometimes has a bearing on what happens. Short Takes is a short price at 2,32. My initial assessment of the market notes that there is a jump in the matched amount, with nothing between 2.48 and 2.58. This usually denotes a non runner and the reduction factor kicking in. There is a narrow defended range between 2.28 and 2.36. I note that 4 other runners are at crossovers. In fact all 5 of the other runners are at crossovers. Bop Along and Forty Crown at 6. Vuvuzela and kent Street at 10 and Sam Lord at 20. Breaking through a crossover is a powerful signal.
Initially I am not sure what to do. I comment that there is “not a lot above” By this I mean that the WOM is light. There is not a lot of people queuing to back the horse. This may or may not be relevant. You can see with the exception of Short takes and Sam Lord, the other runners t have green bands towards the bottom of their ranges, indicating some support. I identify that Bop Along and Kent Street have intact broken through their crossovers and the fav is “weak” I take my initial position of a £200 lay at 2.34. I say that I am taking a little bit of a chance. This “chance” is actually my gut feeling based on my experience. I have strong pattern recognition based on my experience. Sometimes you mistake “gut feelings” for actual experience. You can of course get a fast track on experience. By learning from others experience rather than having to have that experience yourself. I go in with another £200 lay at 2.34.
By 1:00 into the video, 3 have broken through the crossover and Short Takes has drifted to 2.46. I have added another £140 at 2.38 and another £200 at 2.46. It has broken through the top of it’s range just as the other 3 have broken through the bottom of theirs. All plain sailing so far. I have £20 green and a 5 tick buffer to scratch.
2:10 The 2nd and 3rd favs have both reversed slightly and so has Short Takes. There is nearly £6k popped up on the lay side wanting to back this. I know this is fake, but I reduce my liability be backing £200 at 2.4.
2:19 – This is an important part. The £6k that I thought was fake moves down 2 ticks to 2.38. This changes my mind about it being fake. Someone wants to back this horses and is moving their money to get matched. In a weak market like this. this amount is enough to bully the market and I don’t want to take a risk. I close my position at 2.34 and have a red book of £7.53
3:06 I reassess the market. Forty Crown is stable at the crossover at 6. Sam Lord is not doing a lot. But the other 2 are both coming in and breaking new ground. Kent Street is now 7.6 from 10. This now needs to be taken more seriously. I go back in at 2.42 and another £200 at 2.46
3:40. By this stage the drift is gathering some momentum on the back of the gathering steams on Bop Along and Kent Street. When the good guys outnumber the bad guys it isn’t a fair fight. I alway like to look for unfair fights. They pay my bills and keep my wife in shoes and handbags.
4:40. The runners are start to organise themselves at the start. I want to make sure this isn’t going to have a negative influence on my positon.
5:00There is massive momentum and WOM is forcing the price out. There is not much money waiting to back the horse (pink side). In fact at 5:02 there sonly £111 between 2.94 and 3 and £142 between 3.1 and 3.7.
6:00. I go for an ambitious exit at £200 at 3.4. But things have slowed down now prior to the start as the back2 lay boys are shaping the market. I manage a respectable £174.62 green book.
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