Firstly I would like to wish you all a very Happy New Year!
It’s close to 2 years since I started writing this blog. It’s taken me to a place I could have never imagined and I offer my sincere thanks to all the people who have taken the time to send messages and comment. Been so busy lately with my Mentorship program the blog gets a back seat. However, my intentions moving forward is to dedicate some time every week to posting something up. I always want to be informative and productive with what i put out. I don’t write for the sake of it to raise my profile or to sell a product. So hopefully any content will be relevant and worthwhile.
Before I post up the video and explanation of the trade I just wanted to mention that I have the first of the 2015 inductions into my mentorship program on 26th January. There are 3 or 4 places left. So hurry if you want to book. You can read about that HERE.
So here is the video from 30th December at Lingfield.
This was a competitive 5 runner race. The favourite was Beach Bar and was trading at 2.88 as the video starts. Rebellious Guest is trading at 3.4 and is moving in. The 3rd runner is Brocklebank. This has been drifting and is now at 7. The 4th horse is Tournament. It is moving in and is sitting on the cross over point at 6.
Almost straight away, while I am messing about with my Gruss settings, there is a large order filled on Beach Bar taking the odds from 2.88 into 2.78. This coincides with the bottom of it’s range and the best part of 30k of matched volume. But what else has happened in the market?
The money was around 3.5k. Before the order was placed the back book as at 101.93%. Immediately after it landed the back Book was at 100.5% The prices before and after are as follows:
Beach Bar 2.88 – 2.8 – 4 ticks IN
Rebellious Guest 3.4 – 3.4 – No change
Brocklebank 7.2 – 7.4 – 1 tick out
Tournament 6.6 – 6.6 – No change
Sensible way 16 – 15.5 – 1 tick IN
This is great when rewetting a video where you can pause and rewind. It’s different in the heat of battle isn’t it? But what this illustrates is what I thought at the time. Nothing has caused the favourite to steam because they are drifting wildly. Plus the favourite’s move in odds has not really impacted any other runner. This leads me to believe that the move is false and may well bounce back. But I let things settle down, which they do quickly.
I assess the way the market is shaped and distinguish the range I am working with, the green shading is money traded over the last 60 seconds, the yellow the lifetime of the market. It’s easy to see that there is not a great deal of difference between the 2. I would say the range I am interested in lies between 2.76 and 2.90. At 2.78/2.80 there is 46k of traded volume. It looks like the odds are struggling to break through this resistance point. In fact if you look at the Betfair graph at the beginning of the video, you can see that clearly. By the way. All the information you see on the ladder is the same as the Betfair graph. It’s just a different visualisation of it.
So if I want to oppose this runner I need something more than a range and a resistance point. Firstly I need some opposition. This comes in the shape of Rebellious Guest and Tournament. Secondly I need an exit point. My exit point is if it breaks though the bottom of it’s range at around 2.72/2,74. That gives me a total loss position if it goes wrong of £7.36 for my £200 stake. Or around 3.7%
What I’d like to see is either R.G or Tourn breaking out of their range and going though the cross over points at 3 & 6 respectively. These must be accepted as a strong signal. As it happens they both do just that. The result of all this is a clearly identifiable weak favourite that is basically outnumbered and it drifts.
As always I welcome any questions.