Racing Video Preview & Review: Bonus Video 17th April

My Daily Racing Preview video:

I am having 4 trades

3:55 Cheltenham: Eastern Meteor 7.8 stop loss 9.8
4:55 Beverley: Admiralofthesea 4.3 stop loss 5.4
5:15 Newmarket: LAY Improvisation IN PLACE MARKET @ 1.52 stop loss 1.4
5:35 Cheltenham: Nanpour 6.6 stop loss 8.2

Preview: video

Evening Review:

Firstly my apologies for forgetting to actually publish this page. It wan’t until one of my readers asked my at gone 12 that I realised it wasn’t on the blog. Sorry πŸ™‚

Let’s have a look to see what happened.
1:45 Newmarket. Jammy Guest. On the face of it this was a strong favourite which had been well backed. However,as I warned in these races with young horses, late moves and bad behaviour can really mess things up. This drifted very badly and ended up at 8.6.
2:15 Newmarket: Vodka Rock, Hugh Taylors horse continued to steam and won. There was never an opportunity to oppose it. It was obviously not drifting at any point.
2:35 Beverly. Mister Marcasite. I thought it would come in and it did. However, it was another late Hugh taylor selection, I didn’t realise this. so I would never had got involved in it.
3:30 Newmarket Emell – actually drifted a few ticks, the danger horse Alhebayeb did come in. A good call to swerve it
3:55 Cheltenham: Eastern Meteor – i backed this at 7.8 and closed at 6.6 for a Β£14 profit to Β£100 stakes
4:40 Newmarket Kerbaaj -It did come in from 8.4 to 5.8 – The other horse i mentioned Alta Lilea stayed pretty much where it was.
4:55 Beverley: Admiralofthesea 4.3 out to 4.8 when I closed. It carried on drifting Loss of Β£10 for Β£100 stakes
5:15 Newmarket Improvisation Place lay at 1.4 after the reduction factor applied by the withdrawal of Battalion – closed at 1.47 for a small profit
5:35 Cheltenham: Nampour – Backed at 6.6 and closed at3.6 for an Β£83 profit to Β£100 stakes. Not too shabby!

Hope you were able to pick a few good trades out yourself. MG

I did this trade on the huge drift on Permeate. The bloody sound failed! In truth you don’t need me to say anything. Everything was very obvious!

12 thoughts on “Racing Video Preview & Review: Bonus Video 17th April

  1. newmark 14:55 – Zanetto 11 – out
    chelten 15:55 – Easter meteor 7.6
    newmark 17:15 – space ship 8.6
    chelten 17:35 – nampour 6.8

    i was on Vodkatime and Mister … (Hugh Taylor tips) :S realised after 1h that i was mistake …

  2. hi mugs
    still enjoying and been educated by the videos,keep up the good work. i was just thinking it may be worth explaining the difference between handicaps and non handicaps to the new people. i personally find non handicaps far easier to trade than handicaps like you say {which has helped me no end} less is more.again like you say if you want to know the mentality of the average punter spend the afternoon in your local bookies. not that ive been much better over the previous year until you have shown me the obvious that has been staring me in the face

    • Peter, I have to say I don’t really notice the difference between the types of races Except…. maidens are dangerous as unexposed horses can be backed out of nowhere and mess up the trade. Young horses 1st time out and inexperienced horses once they are at the racecourse can get upset and ruin a trade. NH Flat race sand Hunter chases are difficult. The rest are fair game. At the end of the day you trade what suits your style and what your good at πŸ™‚

  3. Evening mg and great preview this morning mate real indepth analysis of the days racing and some crackers pulled out too.Only had chance to do 2 trades today and Nampour was a cracker mate i only got on at 6 and was out at 3.9 but a very nice Β£26.92 profit and the other was a 2yo race at Beverley 3.10 Captain midnight 3.75-2.66 for Β£20.48 ….Internet was down most of the afternoon and i had to run round a mates house to to keep my eye on the Nampour trade ,sick of virgin media mate such a crappy connection most of the time but can’t think of a faster internet provider so have to put up with it i guess anyway well done with yours today mate and by the way i was still laughing today about that trade you was doing on the horse with a stiffy haha nearly fell off my chair :)…Keep it up mate cheers.

    • Nice one darren. I have BT infinity and have had nothing but trouble. Nothing winds me up more! You can make serious money on “cock watch” πŸ™‚ Nampour was a beauty wasn’t it? To have 2 trades and 2 wins is better than 15 trades and 2 wins and 13 losses πŸ™‚ MG

  4. Hi Mugs ,
    The constant debate about who controls the prices was brought into focus by your trade today.
    Interesting how the SP of Permeate ( your trade ) was Even money at the bookies but Betfair SP was 3.31 ( 9/4 ) – have you ever seen a more ` out of sync ` price on such a shortie ? The horse was trading at near 4.00 ( 3/1 ) just before the off – If ever there was a good advert for BF this is it ! 3/1 for an even money shot – incredible . Any thoughts ?

    • Hi John, The bookies are quick to cut prices, but not so keen to push them out. The off course bookies manipulate the on course market, which returns SP. The SP on the fav has implications for roll ups, accas, etc. Especially when some of these bets have “unnamed fav”.
      Quiet often the bookmakers on track are slower to react to what is happening, if a horse is misbehaving the tv (Betfair) punters react instantly. The Bookies, when they are pushing horses out are in effect increasing their liability, so are reluctant. As punters we often congratulate ourselves on being “shrewd” and Savvy. We strive to get value in our bets. But the think you should always remember in the war against the Bookies, is that they are more shrewd than we are by a long way. If we remember that we should do ok. πŸ™‚ MG

  5. Darren I feel your pain, we just switched from Virgin to O2, avg speed with Virgin was 0.89mb and now we’re right up to never lower than 9MB, makes the ladders a lot easier to work with! Where are you based?

    From the last video I think I need to work on my nerve, and keeping it! I was disappointed to only get part of that drift and with hindsight I crapped out early! As always thanks for posting up and replying to me on the other vid.

    Andy

    • Andy, There is a fine line between “crapping out” and being reckless. I tread on the very edge of that line. I only stay in a bad position if I cannot see why it’s moved against me. There are a few things that can happen that you can look out for.
      1) The “slack” in the book is being taken up. We know that the book should be at around 100% or as close to it as possible. If it isn’t then this is “slack” there is a normal ebb and flow in odds. If you look at any graph of a trend you will never see a straight line. It is always zig zaging.
      2) Another runner may have moved – but watch out for that runners resistance level, if it is at a resistance level it may well bounce off it. If it breaks out you need to exit your trade.
      3) Watch out for multiple runners moving – These are trades you probably shouldn’t be involved in anyway.
      Hope this helps MG

  6. Nice trade on Permeate MG a pleasure to watch, well done.

    From my education point of view didn’t need the sound and glad to say I was understanding exactly what you were doing.

    Just a thought (I hope this isn’t cheeky as you do enough for us already) but have you thought about having a MugsGame Forum on this site for people to exchange views and ideas. (Please feel free to tell me to eff off if this is a non -runner!)

    Best Wishes,

    Mick

    • I thought most would turn the sound down anyway:) Mick, A MG forum would be my biggest nightmare πŸ™‚ tbh I just don’t have the time for it. I won’t rule it out completely as it may be worthwhile in the future Mick. Good idea though. MG.

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