Racing Video Preview: 27th April

I am having just 1 trade today. Saturday is the most difficult to find trades. But I think the video shows why this is. Sometimes NOT trading saves you money 🙂

The trade was 4:55 Sandown: Forgotton Hero 5.3 into 3.3 for a profit of £60


 

7 thoughts on “Racing Video Preview: 27th April

  1. Hi MG

    Came across your site last week. Very interesting & informative.

    Would you mind telling me at what time do you start checking the markets?

    Keep up the good work

    Andyor

    • Thanks for you comment, I start at just after 10:00am. I want to see some liquidity and have all the bookmakers prices up before I start to get involved. Cheers MG

      • Hi MG

        Thanks for getting back to me when you start checking the market.

        Great result for you yesterday…..Saturday an’ all!

        Andyor

    • I don’t look at the morning markets on Sunday, I sort of have a day off. It never ends that way and I nearly always find myself trading in the afternoon 🙂
      I can give some critique on this selection though. See if what I say makes sense.
      1) The price is too high to start with. I do select horses this high, but very rarely. They need to be exceptional. The reason is the exit position. Once you get over 10 and the 0.5 per point it reduces the amount of ticks you get until your stop loss is reached. As the prices get bigger the range gets tighter, and the potential to drift past the SL increases. This brings me on to….
      2) Using a mechanical stop loss is not a good idea. You have £2 at 9.8. £170 at 10 (this may be a roadblock and could disappear at any time) and £14 at 11.5. That’s all you have between your trade and the stop loss. The market ebbs and flows. Even if the overall trend may be in your favour, it still jumps back and forth. There is every chance your selection could have gone off at 5. But I would be amazed if the stop loss had not been triggered. I never put in the mechanical stop loss, unless I am trading a very short price when it would need to move 20 ticks to trigger, and only then in a market with huge liquidity.
      3) With the limited data I have, the fav Blazing Bull moved from 3.6 early into 3.4 at 11.00am: This would appear to be a solid fav. To oppose it you would need a huge mover with massive volume traded in the race. I always bang on about volume. Volume adds credibility to any move in odds, At 11.00 there was 7k traded on this race, so that wasn’t too bad. Only £700 had been traded on Rich Lord. Was that enough? Did it give a reliable indication? The fav wasn’t drifting. These are questions that need to have an emphatic answer before I would be willing to pull the trigger. You see my dithering over choices like this everyday 🙂

      This sounds like I have ripped apart your selection and sitting in judgement of it. Please don’t read it that way.I want to give you some clear advice about the selection criteria & some defined guidance about what I require before I trade. Hope this helps. Credit to you for having the guts to pop your head up above the parapet.I don’t get it right all the time either. It’s a long learning curve & we are all on it somewhere. MG

  2. Hi Mugs.

    Have started looking for opportunities based on your teaching and comments. Yesterday El Gran Torino, Ludlow 15:15 ticked all the boxes. In at 5.8 out at 3.8 (a bit early as it turned out). For the first time ever I really feel I have a chance now. I’m going to save a fortune not buying the Racing Post now (apart from Wednesday for the mighty Steve Palmers Golf Tips).

    Heres to the week ahead

    Nick

    • That is a humbling comment Nick. We all have it in us to be successful traders. You just need the confidence and a few nudges in the right direction. I really believe for too long people believe that there is some amazing skill level you need to make trading profitable. As I am showing you guys, this really isn’t the case. Cheers MG

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