Time for another video……
Sometimes trading a competitive race with many “in the mix’ is a recipe for disaster. But sometimes it can work. If you are a long term follower of mine, you will know I favour situations that are obvious and give me a good chance of success. If there are several runners being supported at various times, but 1 seems to have no friends at all. I like to stick the boot in….so to speak. This is a 4 runner handicap chase from Musselburgh. The favourite is Riskier and trading at the bottom of it’s range at 3.25. Also under 4 is Habbie Simpson and Vengeur De Guye. Quito De Tresor is loitering just below the 6.
Watch the video. You can read my breakdown below.
I make a quick and as it turns out, rash assessment of the market and jump in. I lay Vengeur DG before it goes over the cross over point where the tick size changes. This gives me twice the reward to my risk per tick.
This goes against me almost immediately. Best to to dither too much here. I made the call and took the pain. I close for a £7.70 loss and forget about it.
It’s important at this point not to go on tilt. I am not chasing my loss. It’s simply a case of a re assessment of the market and see if there is an opportunity to either go in again on that horse, or maybe another opportunity has presented itself?
This is a somewhat confused market. I like to find a weak contender that is being picked on and has no mates. The added bonus of the cross over at 6 draws me toward Quito Du treasure. I place my Lay at 5.9 again looking to take advantage of the tick size cross over.
Seeing the positive pressure from the other runners I add another £200 lay to my initial £200 lay. It starts to go in my favour.
managing a trade like this is pretty straightforward. The reason I entered was because this was being opposed by more than one runner. This needs to continue. If something changes and the odds start to come in. It’s a case of finding out why. Something has to change significantly.
At around 3:20 into the video i hit a sticky patch and my position has turned. As I explained above, an investigation is needed. When i say “investigation” I don’t mean write a fucking essay about it! I mean have a very quick scan. Time is of the essence here. I didn’t bale out here. Why not? My assessment was that Riskier was still very positive, as was VengerDG. Ok Habbie had gone AWOL, but I saw enough strength in the other 2 to carry this. Plus for me to move into a negative position it would need to break back through the tick size crossover. Which is not easy to do. So I decided to tough it out. Paying particular attention at this point to how the runners were lining up at the start. If Quito had beed 4 lengths out in front, about to get an obvious uncontested lead. It would have been too much for the B2L boys to keep their grubby little snouts out of that trough :).
So thing get better, but after this minor scare i consolidate some of my position. As it goes, there is an opportunity to steal a couple of ticks by scalping a little.
It could have been better, but nothing to complain about here.
Just to say I have now only 1 place left for the January 26th induction into my Mentorship program. next date is 23rd February, then a break until mid May (18th). Places are limited.
As always I welcome your comments and questions.