Risky Business

Time for another video……

Sometimes trading a competitive race with many “in the mix’ is a recipe for disaster. But sometimes it can work. If you are a long term follower of mine, you will know I favour situations that are obvious and give me a good chance of success. If there are several runners being supported at various times, but 1 seems to have no friends at all. I like to stick the boot in….so to speak. This is a 4 runner handicap chase from Musselburgh. The favourite is Riskier and trading at the bottom of it’s range at 3.25. Also under 4 is Habbie Simpson and Vengeur De Guye. Quito De Tresor is loitering just below the 6.

Watch the video. You can read my breakdown below.

I make a quick and as it turns out, rash assessment of the market and jump in. I lay Vengeur DG before it goes over the cross over point where the tick size changes. This gives me twice the reward to my risk per tick.

This goes against me almost immediately. Best to to dither too much here. I made the call and took the pain. I close for a £7.70 loss and forget about it.

It’s important at this point not to go on tilt. I am not chasing my loss. It’s simply a case of a re assessment of the market and see if there is an opportunity to either go in again on that horse, or maybe another opportunity has presented itself?

This is a somewhat confused market. I like to find a weak contender that is being picked on and has no mates. The added bonus of the cross over at 6 draws me toward Quito Du treasure. I place my Lay at 5.9 again looking to take advantage of the tick size cross over.

Seeing the positive pressure from the other runners I add another £200 lay to my initial £200 lay. It starts to go in my favour.

managing a trade like this is pretty straightforward. The reason I entered was because this was being opposed by more than one runner. This needs to continue. If something changes and the odds start to come in. It’s a case of finding out why. Something has to change significantly.

At around 3:20 into the video i hit a sticky patch and my position has turned. As I explained above, an investigation is needed. When i say “investigation” I don’t mean write a fucking essay about it! I mean have a very quick scan. Time is of the essence here. I didn’t bale out here. Why not? My assessment was that Riskier was still very positive, as was VengerDG. Ok Habbie had gone AWOL, but I saw enough strength in the other 2 to carry this. Plus for me to move into a negative position it would need to break back through the tick size crossover. Which is not easy to do. So I decided to tough it out. Paying particular attention at this point to how the runners were lining up at the start. If Quito had beed 4 lengths out in front, about to get an obvious uncontested lead. It would have been too much for the B2L boys to keep their grubby little snouts out of that trough :).

So thing get better, but after this minor scare i consolidate some of my position. As it goes, there is an opportunity to steal a couple of ticks by scalping a little.

It could have been better, but nothing to complain about here.

Just to say I have now only 1 place left for the January 26th induction into my Mentorship program. next date is 23rd February, then a break until mid May (18th). Places are limited.

As always I welcome your comments and questions.

7 thoughts on “Risky Business

  1. Thanks for this video Steve. You are so disciplined and I like that very much!! Accept the loss and do not chase it.
    Your method and reading the market is awesome! I’m trying every day to apply your method and now my spreadsheet has more green than red trades. I just imagine how I will start read the markets after one of your Mentorship program. I am glad that I’ll have the opportunity to attend your training course on January 26th.

    See you after few days on January 25th in The Village Hotel – Coventry.

    Best wishes,
    Jordan.

  2. Hi Steve can you please try to explain how the amounts of money on the
    Ladder effect the market movement you seem to read what’s going to happen so quickly iam just not getting it .I can watch and follow your logic in the videos no problem but can’t seem to crack it on my own .think I have a basic understanding of crossover points trading ranges slack in the book etc I just don’t have a clue about the money in the market and how it effects the movement of prices.any help appreciated cheers alan

    • Hi Alan – This is a biggy !!!!! Trying to write an explanation is almost impossible. I was thinking of writing a book, but realised it would be a thick and very boring one!
      Trying to work out every market and what every runner is doing is folly and frankly impossible. So where is a good place to start? The obvious. Look for a situation where several runners are doing the same thing and one stands out as doing something else. That could be drifting or steaming. It’s then a case of identifying an EXIT and then an Entry. I’ll try and work on some new videos that show this. I know this may not help to much, but it needs visual explanation.
      Cheers Steve

  3. Only stumbled across your blog (had BA for a few years!!!) and have been watching your videos repeatedly. I realise I now have to start at the beginning (records) and wonder if you could please mail me a copy of your spreadsheet.

    Much appreciated
    Kind Regards.

    Jim

  4. Thanks steve any help be appreciated . I keep missing the break through the cross over I have my mouse in position ready to click but my money is always just to late.the market is gone past 3 or 4 ticks .its a pain have read the market right but not taking full advantage. I can only read the really obvious markets the rest are still beyond me so I need to profit when I can cheers look at forward to your next video alan

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