This is a trade I recorded on a quiet Sunday afternoon at Cork. I know what you’re thinking. Why are you working on Sunday afternoon MG? Well I work pretty much every day, unless my mates are out on the Bikes, in which case I have a day off. But I am thinking about trading all the time I am riding. This is where I am at my most creative. i always come back with a new idea to try out.
Anyway, enough of my sad life and onto this trade.
This isn’t my finest hour. When I watched it back I realised how poor the trade was. But I like to show you stuff other than me building up big totals. That simply doesn’t happen every race. The whole key to having some success at trading in this style is consistency. You need to make sure your losses are tight and they don’t happen too often. In this trade it just doesn’t happen for me. There are a couple of times when it looks like it is going to “catch fire”, but it doesn’t. Meanwhile I miss another obvious trade.
Watch the video and read my breakdown afterwards. As always I welcome your comments and questions. If you haven’t noticed, I have updated my workshop page. It details what I am doing with my training program and how you can join in. LINK
00:00 We are 3 and a half minutes out , it’s a quiet Sunday afternoon at Cork. It’s a 4 runner 5f flat race. It’s a competitive affair with 3 runners within 1 point of each other. The other runner is not a no hoper and may play some part in influencing the market so cannot be discounted at this stage. I have already taken a position on the fav at 2.9 for £200. My initial assessment is that the fav may come in. Danehill Brook is drifting and Invisible Flash is “flat”. The outsider has been trading in a tight range between 10 and 12. (this goes on to win btw). Danehill Brooke is above the crossover at 3 and Invisible Flash has broken through the crossover at 4. I have a position of safety above my position where the crossover is at 3.0. As I say, this is my provisional exit position if the trade goes against me.
1:40 – Not a lot has happened, I have added another £200 to my position and then modified where my exit position now is. There is a defined step in the range at 2.92.
2:00 My position is moving against me and reaches my exit at 2.92. However, I look at the the market and the amount of slack convinces me to give it another couple of ticks. As it works out this was a good call. – Talking about slack©, which as you know is my favourite subject of the moment. I wonder how long it is before others are talking about this? I reckon I might copyright the saying ©. In a race with a shape like this you would expect the book to be tight. There has to be some space for the book to “breathe” so having an impossibly tight hold on it isn’t practical.
2:20 I make the connection between Danehill Brook and Invisible Flash. Everything is very subtle in this market. Sometimes it’s right “in your face”. You would be hard pushed to miss moves and connections. This is much more difficult (although in hindsight it’s very easy). Even at this stage I was thinking that Persian Caliph would catch fire and steam in. The fact that the drift on Danehill brook was being taken up by Invisible Flash only strengthen that opinion. My rational was that if Invisible Flash ran out of steam, then because my horses’ price had not been affected by the drift or team on the 2nd & 3rd favs, it would fly. Whenever a fav is stable while another horse is clearly moving in is usually a positive sign.
3:50 My fella has finally moved in a little. If I had been smarter I would have closed my position as the momentum slowed at 2.74. I should say that I should have also added to the trade a few seconds before this once I had identified the move on Invisible Flash had slowed and there was momentum building behind my trade. This would have probably given me a green book of around £30.
Conclusion: I end up with 12 quid.In truth not a lot happened. But that’s how it is sometimes. You don’t always get a 25 tick swing. And that my friends is exactly the point.