Sometimes there Just isn’t a swing – You cannot force It

This is a trade I recorded on a quiet Sunday afternoon at Cork. I know what you’re thinking. Why are you working on Sunday afternoon MG? Well I work pretty much every day, unless my mates are out on the Bikes, in which case I have a day off. But I am thinking about trading all the time I am riding. This is where I am at my most creative. i always come back with a new idea to try out.

Anyway, enough of my sad life and onto this trade.

This isn’t my finest hour. When I watched it back I realised how poor the trade was. But I like to show you stuff other than me building up big totals. That simply doesn’t happen every race. The whole key to having some success at trading in this style is consistency. You need to make sure your losses are tight and they don’t happen too often. In this trade it just doesn’t happen for me. There are a couple of times when it looks like it is going to “catch fire”, but it doesn’t. Meanwhile I miss another obvious trade.

Watch the video and read my breakdown afterwards. As always I welcome your comments and questions. If you haven’t noticed, I have updated my  workshop page. It details what I am doing with my training program and how you can join in. LINK

00:00 We are 3 and a half minutes out , it’s a quiet Sunday afternoon at Cork. It’s a 4 runner 5f flat race. It’s a competitive affair with 3 runners within 1 point of each other. The other runner is not a no hoper and may play some part in influencing the market so cannot be discounted at this stage. I have already taken a position on the fav at 2.9 for £200. My initial assessment is that the fav may come in. Danehill Brook is drifting and Invisible Flash is “flat”. The outsider has been trading in a tight range between 10 and 12. (this goes on to win btw). Danehill Brooke is above the crossover at 3 and Invisible Flash has broken through the crossover at 4. I have a position of safety above my position where the crossover is at 3.0. As I say, this is my provisional exit position if the trade goes against me.

1:40 – Not a lot has happened, I have added another £200 to my position and then modified where my exit position now is. There is a defined step in the range at 2.92.

2:00 My position is moving against me and reaches my exit at 2.92. However, I look at the the market and the amount of slack convinces me to give it another couple of ticks. As it works out this was a good call. – Talking about slack©, which as you know is my favourite subject of the moment. I wonder how long it is before others are talking about this? I reckon I might copyright the saying ©. In a race with a shape like this you would expect the book to be tight. There has to be some space for the book to “breathe” so having an impossibly tight hold on it isn’t practical.

2:20 I make the connection between Danehill Brook and Invisible Flash. Everything is very subtle in this market. Sometimes it’s right “in your face”. You would be hard pushed to miss moves and connections. This is much more difficult (although in hindsight it’s very easy). Even at this stage I was thinking that Persian Caliph would catch fire and steam in. The fact that the drift on Danehill brook was being taken up by Invisible Flash only strengthen that opinion. My rational was that if Invisible Flash ran out of steam, then because my horses’ price had not been affected by the drift or team on the 2nd & 3rd favs, it would fly. Whenever a fav is stable while another horse is clearly moving in is usually a positive sign.

3:50 My fella has finally moved in a little. If I had been smarter I would have closed my position as the momentum slowed at 2.74. I should say that I should have also added to the trade a few seconds before this once I had identified the move on Invisible Flash had slowed and there was momentum building behind my trade. This would have probably given me a green book of around £30.

Conclusion: I end up with 12 quid.In truth not a lot happened. But that’s how it is sometimes. You don’t always get a 25 tick swing. And that my friends is exactly the point.

15 thoughts on “Sometimes there Just isn’t a swing – You cannot force It

  1. Thanks for the vid

    Is it just me or have the markets been quite tricky last few days? Is it because the over lap from NH to Flat possibly or maybe I’ve just not been with it? lol

    • Hi Johnny, Yeah, they can be tricky as the change takes place. But I’m finding it not too bad. After the national run Saturday it fell off a cliff lol. Noticing your email – Do you know Steve Reynolds by any chance?

      • Bizarrely enough, my trading has gone a bit backwards so back to reduced stakes for me for the time being. I’m going to go through all your vids again as I’ve been in the process of moving so its probably that knocking my focus.

        I don’t I’m afraid, the name doesnt ring a bell. If he works in the film industry I’ve probably bumped into him somewhere along the line. 🙂

        • Whenever things are not going so well, reducing stakes and starting again is a great idea.
          Steve Reynolds is a mate of mine. He’s a writer and director. He just directed Danny Dyer in Vendetta. Thought you may have picked up my Twitter from him 🙂

  2. Didnt see a lot wrong with that at all. In your early market synopsis you picked out (in your opinion), which was the most likely mover. As youve previously stated, you tend to stick to one horse per race to trade. So, I’m guessing if you’d have chosen another of the three then you would have had a similar result?
    Having three horses in the market at very similar prices can be awkward. I tend to jump on and off different participants once Ive (I think) worked out their trading range and act on bounces and drifts etc. Mostly works but I’m using relatively piddling stakes so it may be that these bets are just easily absorbed.

    At the end of the day you made £12. So whether you consider that a failure or not, I’d be happy and move on.

    Great vid and superb critique. Keep up the great work!

    P.s, my dad trademarked the word “slack” but he used it in regards to certain women!!

    Pps, will be looking back at your old vids re the early morning trades. I remember watching them on Youtube yonks back but didnt realise until now they were yours.


    • Daz you absolutely right about making £12. I’ll take 12 quid over losing 12 quid any day. What I wanted to show was some perspective. I don’t think it’s helpful that anyone that aspires to be successful at trading sees “Pros” post up what are perceived to be unobtainable totals. I think it turns people off. When my readers see that I make mistakes, just like they do. That I make less in some races that they do. It keeps it all “real”
      Loving the “slack” meaning. I remember Slack Alice – ask your Dad lol. The old vids are still valid, I may do some more of them. But not everyday! – Cheers MG

  3. Cool video thanks for posting it give me renewed hope broke even on that race couldn’t figure it out lol was delighted to come away from it with my bank intact cheers PH

  4. Mugs
    Ive been waiting for your vids this week and was happy you posted this one, great viewing as always, but I was even more happier to look at my trading diary for that day and I also traded that race, I made £25 on the 1st horse as it was drifting, why did I make this trade?
    OK I will tell you………because you explained about break points ie…going thro 2.00 or 3.00, so I waited for the move and took advantage of it, so to top it off you made more than just £12, you made me some money too.
    ive just lit up a cigar and opened a beer now.

  5. I didn’t trader this one, but would probably not had the bottle to get in as soon as you. When I see 3 horses at a similar price dominating the market, I look for 2 against 1 situations. I would have traded this differently. To start with you had a 1 v 1 with one drift and 1 steamer. I was waiting for invisible flash to break that tight range before placing a trade (around 2 mins 19 sec into the vid). When it broke downwards and joined Persian Caliph I looked to jump on the drifter Danehill Brook (around 3.40/3.35). I didnt really drift much though, only 2/3 ticks. I should give a masterclass in hindsight trading, I’d be awsome.

    • Quality comment Adrian. SWC is the saying…..Shoulda Woulda Coulda. But seriously, there is more than one way to skin a cat. The other option at the beginning was to lay Danehill Brook and use the crossover as a safety net. I guess my thinking was that Invisible Flash just didn’t seem to be going anywhere. Markets like this are some of the toughest to trade. Quite often I just leave them. I thought it good to show that sometimes they just don’t give anything. Good critique mate. If it gets you thinking, that’s the idea. 🙂 Cheers MG

  6. mugs what in your all opinion does the average swing last in terms of tick movement i know it different for every trade but i having problems exiting at the right time when i get out it keeps going when i dont it turns and i lose couple of ticks know this probably a silly question but i had to ask it annoying me cheers ph

    • Your right, it varies every trade. Sometimes it doesn’t happen at all, other times you can get 23 ticks one way and then 25 back the other. If you are struggling with this i suggest you use caution and if you get 5 ticks – then take them. You can always go back in again. Break the trade up into sections. Almost mini trades within a trade. That means as your position moves you are trading with money you have won and your scratch position moves with you. You will see me do this when i use progressive staking. Watch how I stick £200 in, and if it’s going well I add to it. When I think it may move against me I take some back out. Try splitting you stale into 5 and trying it that way. – Does this make any sense? Cheers MG

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