Trading doesn’t have to be complicated. Does it?
First let me qualify the above statement. I am not advocating that it’s easy. I think we all know that it isn’t. But from my experiences within my Mentorship group it’s often the case that there is almost an irresistible urge to solve the most complex of puzzles.
In almost every race and to some degree every runner will have odds that move. Sometimes in, sometimes out and sometimes in a very tight range. What I look for is the obvious. If it isn’t obvious then I tend not to get involved.
Sometimes even the obvious goes tits up. It’s then time to take action to project your bank and take a loss. That is the essence of trading. Having the confidence to take a loss knowing that if your method is correct you can soon get back your loss. Whether that be in the same race or the next, or even the next day. I am certainly not suggesting you chase this loss. That is a different story altogether.
This trade is very straightforward. As I say in the video I have a saying which is “What is going to stop the favourite”? We know that everyone wants to back a winner, and the place many their faith in is the favourite. So the price will naturally want to move in UNLESS something wants to oppose it. In many occasions you will get more that one runner making up the opposition, and often they take it in turns. Sometimes there is very little or no opposition. These are often the stand out opportunities to make a few quid. Why make it hard for yourself?
My first job when assessing if there was an opportunity to take a position was to identify what was happening. The favourite was toward the bottom of it’s trading range, indicating it had been steaming positively. But there were some other runners in a similar position range wise. What is important to take into account is the bigger the price the less influence it will have. So we do have a bit of opposition, but from a horse trading at 8 (Focail Mear) and 9 (Heinrich). Even in the face of this opposition the favourite Hebesia did not drift, say the odd tick which can be expected as the book has to ebb and flow. I take this to be a strong signal that the fav is strong. It has several signals going for it.
- It has broken out of it’s trading range
- There were 3 different horses that at different times tried to oppose it.
- It eventually broke though the cross over point at 3. This is a natural sticking point.
I often trade the favourite as this is usually where the action is. If there is no opposition it will steam, if there is opposition it may drift. But if there is opposition AND it is still coming in, then this means to resist this opposition people really want to back it. Once it breaks the will of whichever runner(s) that are opposing it, then it usually really motors.
I though this to be a pretty good example of this.
Having a tough run of things lately. Last Thursday we were broken into while in bed and had all my PC equipment stolen. Thank God I had a Time machine back up for my Mac. I’ll be writing about this shortly. It really taught me a few lessons I can tell you.
Just to say I will be doing the last of my Mentorship inductions for this year in Coventry on Monday (24th November). Dues to popular demand I will be continuing the program into 2015. I will be releasing the first couple of dates shortly. Due to a very late cancellation I am able to offer a place on Monday’s induction. If you are interested please get in touch via email (firstname.lastname@example.org) asap.