Everyone has their own style of trading. I have mine and you probably have yours. Part of what motivates me to write my blog and make these videos is that I might have a positive impact on your trading.
Now when I here other traders having discussions about how many different technical indicators they use and what they all mean I often smile to myself. But it’s about finding what works best for you. I use the “whole market” approach. I assess the whole market, find out what has happened and look for a position in the market that I can exploit and then use progressive staking to build my position. There is a lot of data to process, but I use several techniques to make it as simple as possible. The charts at the bottom of the screen are purely to see how the market has formed over it’s lifetime. The majority of the information these graphs contain is pointless when making a market assessment. They can mislead you. I am more interested in the £3k that has just been matched at 3.2 now, not the £5 that was matched at 7:00am this morning at 6.2. The point on the graph carries the same value. The traded volume on the ladder gives it clarity. It’s the same piss, but a different pot.
In this video I wanted to share what is in essence the simplest type of trade. Why get stressed looking for a way into an impossible market. That old adage K.I.S.S (Keep It Simple Stupid) is so apt here. I think we are all guilty of looking deeper than we really need to.
Watch the video and see what I mean.
00:00 We have an 8 runner Handicap Hurdle over 3miles at Ayr. It’s a competitive race with 6 of the runners under 11 and the other 2 at 20 & 26. The favourite is 3.75 and has been on a steady drift throughout the lifetime of the market. Virtually every other runner has a positive recent trend. If I lay the favourite under 4 I can gain the advantage of an enhanced tick size and more reward v risk if it goes over the crossover odds at 4. I take my initial position with a 2 x£200 LAY bets at 3.8.
1:00 I dither too long and should have added more to this trade below the crossover. The 2nd and 3rd favs had broken through the crossovers at 6. Every other runner had a positive to neutral position. I identify that the favourite was not lining up in a prominent position. This is an important consideration to make when trading races without starting stalls as the traders who like to back and then lay lower in play by taking advantage of front runners may shorten the price, even though it has been drifting. Once the runners form a circle at the start you need to be aware of this. Quite often it can be used to your advantage. Or save your good trade going tits up.
1:30 If you notice that unmatched amounts LAY (pink column) above the end of the trading range is what I often call “very thin”. This is the amount of money that people have put into the market to BACK the horse. This in effect means that not many want to back it as it stands. This sometimes is a red herring, as money often seems to appear by magic. At this point I can not see any danger to the trade and think it will go much higher considering it’s position in the starting line up.
I decide to use £100 stakes and do a little scalping as the price has stabilised. I LAY first as I want to be on the right side of the drift.
2:30 It makes a bit of a rally and I was a bit too ambitious (read greedy)
I end up closing the trade for a profit of £46.51 At no point was my trade in a negative position. As always when I watch my trades back, I think I didn’t make the best of it. But hindsight is such a beautiful thing. You may think this sort of trade is a rare occurrence. Well I can tell you it’s not.
If you know how to trade these races and choose the ones that are easier. Then have the confidence to know you can make a profit from them when they arrive. Why can’t you sit and be patient and wait for the simple opportunities when they present themselves?
Trading is as simple or as complicated as you want it to be. I am a simple man, so I keep it simple as I can. (Relatively speaking 🙂 )