Why Over Complicate Your Trades? K.I.S.S

Everyone has their own style of trading. I have mine and you probably have yours. Part of what motivates me to write my blog and make these videos is that I might have a positive impact on your trading.

Now when I here other traders having discussions about how many different technical indicators they use and what they all mean I often smile to myself. But it’s about finding what works best for you. I use the “whole market” approach. I assess the whole market, find out what has happened and look for a position in the market that I can exploit and then use progressive staking to build my position. There is a lot of data to process, but I use several techniques to make it as simple as possible. The charts at the bottom of the screen are purely to see how the market has formed over it’s lifetime. The majority of the information these graphs contain is pointless when making a market assessment. They can mislead you. I am more interested in the £3k that has just been matched at 3.2 now, not the £5 that was matched at 7:00am this morning at 6.2. The point on the graph carries the same value. The traded volume on the ladder gives it clarity. It’s the same piss, but a different pot.

In this video I wanted to share what is in essence the simplest type of trade. Why get stressed looking for a way into an impossible market. That old adage K.I.S.S  (Keep It Simple Stupid) is so apt here. I think we are all guilty of looking deeper than we really need to.

Watch the video and see what I mean.

00:00 We have an 8 runner Handicap Hurdle over 3miles at Ayr. It’s a competitive race with 6 of the runners under 11 and the other 2 at 20 & 26. The favourite is 3.75 and has been on a steady drift throughout the lifetime of the market. Virtually every other runner has a positive recent trend. If I lay the favourite under 4 I can gain the advantage of an enhanced tick size and more reward v risk if it goes over the crossover odds at 4. I take my initial position with a 2 x£200 LAY bets at 3.8.

1:00 I dither too long and should have added more to this trade below the crossover. The 2nd and 3rd favs had broken through the crossovers at 6. Every other runner had a positive to neutral position. I identify that the favourite was not lining up in a prominent position. This is an important consideration to make when trading races without starting stalls as the traders who like to back and then lay lower in play by taking advantage of front runners may shorten the price, even though it has been drifting. Once the runners form a circle at the start you need to be aware of this. Quite often it can be used to your advantage. Or save your good trade going tits up.

1:30 If you notice that unmatched amounts LAY (pink column) above the end of the trading range is what I often call “very thin”. This is the amount of money that people have put into the market to BACK the horse. This in effect means that not many want to back it as it stands. This sometimes is a red herring, as money often seems to appear by magic. At this point I can not see any danger to the trade and think it will go much higher considering it’s position in the starting line up.

I decide to use £100 stakes and do a little scalping as the price has stabilised. I LAY first as I want to be on the right side of the drift.

2:30 It makes a bit of a rally and I was a bit too ambitious (read greedy)

I end up closing the trade for a profit of £46.51 At no point was my trade in a negative position. As always when I watch my trades back, I think I didn’t make the best of it. But hindsight is such a beautiful thing. You may think this sort of trade is a rare occurrence. Well I can tell you it’s not.

If you know how to trade these races and choose the ones that are easier. Then have the confidence to know you can make a profit from them when they arrive. Why can’t you sit and be patient and wait for the simple opportunities when they present themselves?

Trading is as simple or as complicated as you want it to be. I am a simple man, so I keep it simple as I can. (Relatively speaking 🙂 )

14 thoughts on “Why Over Complicate Your Trades? K.I.S.S

  1. Very Nice one Steve, think i did the same on this market. Seems my trading improves and i see thinks clearer since you back and post a few thinks. Thanks for that.
    Bad side, i think i overtrade last night and made a REAL mess with footy, a few hours horses and after that footy games is a far to bit, lesson learnt. 😉 Maybe i first stick only to one, before i will jump on the sports 🙂

    keep up the good stuff


  2. hi mugs, nice video and comments, it helps those of us who really are simple. i try to keep it simple but am guilty of over complicating things, there is too much info available and you will always see something to contradict your decision, and as you say reading other forums i am sometimes left perplexed by what other traders are talking about, i think some of these people are far more educated than myself and overcomplicate the market, which hasnt really helped me in previous years. i now just use the charts and ladder as you do, but i also have the in play trader pinned up which helps me see the full picture a little easier. i dont know if you have done this before, but could you put up a video of markets you would not touch, and explain why. i dont trade anywhere near as many races as i used to, before finding your blog. trades have been going really well lately, just need to improve my confidence. sorry to waffle
    thanks peter

    • Hi Peter,
      I’m at the stage now where I have a crack at pretty much any market. I just use different methods. I wouldn’t really attempt a swing trade where the favourite is 7 or 8. But I might make a book or try to scalp a few ticks. Once my first training day is over I will have a little more time to have a look at what you suggest. I have actually attempted to make a video like this a couple of times. But then it turns into an opportunity and goes off plan lol. Regarding the information that you need to make a decision. Whatever helps is all good.It’s about visualisation of information. I can get everything I need from the screen you see. But I have that experience I guess.There IS a lot of info to process. But my point is, just process the parts you need. If you can trim those down it all becomes simpler. less is more as they say. Keep up the good work Peter. You can waffle as much as you like. But I am the king of wafflers lol. Cheers MG

  3. hi mugs great video am learning loads for all your vids. are you going to do any video on making a book as i would be really interested to see one as i am clueless cheers ph

    • The bookmaking is something that I don’t want to make public. Sorry fella, you know I share most things, but this isn’t going to be one of them 🙂 The ladder is more productive, less danger and more lucrative. I’d stick with that and learn the ropes. Cheers MG

    • Hi Chris, Not really. I just cannot get the right visualisation. I have had some success. But I find that if I use it instead of Betfair, I can’t get the money through I want to. I tried using both but if fried my small brain. In the end I just pay the PC and suck it up and then wipe my chin afterwards.When (IF) Betdaq as promised 6 months odd ago sort out their new api to allow traded volumes. Then I’m sure it will work very well. But as it stands it doesn’t really work for me. Cheers MG

  4. Thanks for all the videos you put up mate,inspired me to give the horses another go and actually read a few markets correct today,early days but after watching your videos,i can see things ive never noticed before.

    • Nice one Terry – keep at it. A small improvement everyday will make a huge difference after a couple of weeks. Cheers MG

  5. Hi mugs, e,excellent as usual, I’ve made my living for several years now on betfair, mainly with the dead man’s handle type lay all type system, but do scalp trading ranges every day, I never considered this crossover point as support point – excellent keep it going _ neil

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