Racing Trades, Preview Video & Evening review: 3rd April

If you want to see how to get the best out of my trades see HERE

Back Trades

4:10 Wetherby: The Panama Kid: 7/1 8.4 stop loss 10.5 AMENDMENT 7.4 stop loss 9.2

5:30 Kempton: Silver Fawn 7/1 8.4 stop loss 10.5

Preview Video:

There are a couple of things so say about the first runner. After yesterdays great results my over confidence bought me straight back down to earth. I broke one of my own rules about chasing down prices. I amended the original 8.4 to 7.4. This was a mistake as it soon bounced back. However, in the end it didn’t make too much difference as the runner drifted back past our original stop anyway. One to forget, but a lesson retaught.

The 2nd runner Silver Fawn in the 5:30 at Kempton looked ok, but 10 minutes out stated to drift. The market was very thin at this point, it did rally and I managed to close at 8. There was a non runner in this race which reduced our price to 7.34 once the reduction factor had been applied. It went on to win the race in a photo, the 2nd placed horse being matched at 1.02 in play. It takes £27 off the total, but still £144 up for the week.

You may notice in the results table I have started to add the place SP. I did some back testing of the placed results since the beginning of March. Backing every selection in the Betfair place market at SP gave a profit of 21.29 points. The April total is within the Stats section in the bottom of the result. Currently + 0.28 pts. I am not recommending you back them or anything like that. But it’s worth keeping an eye on.

3rd april backs

Lets hope it’s better tomorrow – MG

 

 

Racing Trades / Preview Video & Evening Update 28th March

If you want to see how to get the best out of my trades see HERE

Back2Lays

2:20 Ffos Las: Pension Plan 15/2 for Arbs: 8.4 stop loss 10.

2:40 Wolverhampton: Mazij 4/1: 5.5 stop loss 6.8

3:50 Wolves: Storming 3/1: 4.2 stop loss 5.2

4:10 Ludlow: Ballywatt: 5/1 – 5.8 stop loss 7.2 – Moved down to 5 not matched. Bet cancelled – may bounce and momentum will be against us.

4:55 Wolves: Local Singer 6/1 6.8 stop loss 8.4 – Not matched: Moved to 6.4 stop loss now 8

 

Evening Review:

Well I was concerned about a poor days racing at my 2 least favourite tracks. It ended up one of the best days for the Racing trades.

First up was Pension Plan in the Ffos Las 2:20 A huge move from 8.4 right into 5.3 – It won too. A welcome profit of £55.56.
Next was Mazij at Wolves. This one only managed a couple of ticks right at the end., but a small profit is better than a loss!.

The 3:50 Wolves saw Storming come “storming in” :0 From 4.2 into 2.84 and another big pay day of £45.
The next Trade should have been Ballywatt in the 4:10 at Ludlow. Unfortunately I didn’t get matched on Betfair. Although I did on Betdaq. If you have watched the preview video, you will have seen me cancel the trade as I did not want to catch it on the bounce when the momentum was against me. It went in to 4.7.That’s the way things go. Like I say, I want my trades to be honest and fair. That’s more important than an extra few quid.
The final trade was Local Singer in the 4:55 at Wolves. I did not get matched at the advised 6.8, but I made a call based on the current market and moved my trade down to 6.4. You will see this in the video and the amended post. Apologies if you didn’t get matched.
This was another beauty and went from the 6.4 into 4.3 for another £46.

The daily total reached just over £150 and the total for the month just shy of £500. Not to bad for free!

Here’s a video from earlier. It’s a one horse market. Slow starter but got there in the end,

Racing Trades 27th March & Racing Preview Video – Evening Review

If you want to see how to get the best out of my trades see HERE

Back2Lays

Wetherby 4:30: Rebel Swing: 7/1 for the arbers: 8.6 stop loss 10.5

Southwell 5:30 Al Amaan: 3/1 4.3 stop loss 5.4

Lay2Backs

Southwell 3:35 LAY Hanna Turn @ 1.9 stop loss 1.77

 

Evening Review:

First I’ll rip though the racing trades. Hannahs Turn was a nice drifter went out to around 2.2 before coming in close to the start. I got out easily at 2.14 to make £23 profit.

The first Back Rebel Swing looked unlikely to get matched at one time. But even close to the start 8.6 was availablr. It flirted with that price before moving down a few ticks to make £12.

The 2nd of the backs looked promising, it went in as low as 3.85 before bouncing. I closed for a 2 tick profit as I could see the favourite was being backed in. It made £4.

Overall not too bad, the daily profit was nearly £40.

I think the preview video through up a couple of gems.The 1st one I mentioned Special mix in the 2:20 was a drifter unfortunately, but 10 – 12.5 is not the end of the world. Global Flyer in the 2:50 Weth went from 10 to 7, Neptune Equester was backed as soon as Brian Ellison had winner in the 2:20. It cam e in from 4.2 to as low as 3.45. It drifted back out before the off. But went on to win.

My fancy for Rylee Mooch in the 4:05 Lingfield was well founded. It was backed from 4.9 into 3.8.

If you think the preview videos are worthwhile, and you get something from them, please vote on the poll in the sidebar. If you think I am wasting my time, your vote to say they are not helping you would also be appreciated. The pools are a good way for me to see what my readers want to see from me. Cheers MG

 

Racing Trades & Preview Video 26th March

If you want to see how to get the best out of my trades see HERE

Back2Lays
3:30 Southwell: Rambo Will 4/1 if you want to arb. 5.2 Stop Loss of 6.4

3:40 Fontwell: Peut Etre Sivola 7/1: 7.6 : stop loss at 9.6

4:40 Fontwell: Tchang Goon 7/1: 8.2: Stop loss at 10

Video Preview:

Evening Review:

Racing trades: The first one was a beauty, which was just as well considering what came next. There was a small reduction Factor of 4.5% on Rambo Will, this meant the odds were reduced to 4.87. The late money came and an easy exit of 3.5 was achieved. A nice profit of just short of £40.
The other 2 trades were both looking good after an hour or so, but gambles on other horses later on in both races saw them hit the stop losses. They both ran decent enough races. All 3 runners today were placed. Not that that makes any difference! Miraculously we came out of today with £3 profit. More luck than judgement I think. This month is turning out to be a toughie.

Video Preview:
Here are some of the observations I made this morning. It didn’t go exactly how I thought, but I hope I pointed you in the right direction on these.
2:20 Gabriel the Duke 2.0 into 1.7
2:30 Thereabouts (Luke Morris) 3.8 into 2.9
3:00 Lay Indias Song. 2.35 out to 2.96
3:20: Abhaarth 11- 7.2
3:50 Buy Art 2.62 into 2.02
4:20: Dutch Old Master 4. 7 – 2.49
5:00: Cecily Parsley 9The Hugh Taylor horse – 1.80 to 2.08 in place market

If you pick your way through the waffle there were a few good pointers again.:)
Cheers MG

Racing Trades 20th March – Evening review

If you want to see how to get the best out of my trades see HERE

Back2Lay

Warwick 4:05: Madame Allsorts: 8/1 for the arbers – 7.8 and a stop loss of 9.8

Haydock 5:20: Operatic heights 4/1 bookies. 5.0 and stop loss at 6.2

Poor day, only 2 cards and very few runners. This doesn’t suit this style of trading. I have money in the queues at these prices. It will go down as no bet if i am not matched. Gives everyone a fairer chance then. I don’t want to you to think you’re missing out !

Evening Review:

Nothing to exciting today, you may want to see the video I posted earlier where i previewed todays racing LINK. There are a couple of beauties in there. Our Joey 10-7 and I am Colin which I mentioned I wanted to Lay at 2.96 – it hit over 5. Grrrrrrrrrrrrr

Back to the trades we did have. Madame Allsorts was a nice trade, The move didn’t happen until late on, I have the video of this I may post later, it’s well boring though. 7.8 to 5.3 ain’t bad in anyones book. A profit of £42.

Our second runner was Operatic Heights, this moved in before drifting badly. It hit the stop loss and the loss was -£19.33

Our daily profit was just short of £23. Weekly goes to over £130. Monthly pushing toward £350.

Racing Trades: 16th March – Daily & weekly review

If you want to see how to get the best out of my trades see HERE

The post Cheltenham hangover has arririved. As bad a days racing on a Saturday know to man.

Back2Lays

Uttoxeter 3:50 Major Malarkey: 17/2 – 7/1 for the arbers. 9.2 can be squeezed at Betdaq. 9 on Betfair. The stop loss is at 11

Uttoxeter 4:25: Galway Jack: 11/4 for Arbers: 3.5 – Stop loss 4.4

 

The fields are devastated by Non runners. This makes many markets very hard to read. We’ll keep it tight today. MG

Daily review

A quiet day. Alot quieter than last Saturday, that’s for sure!

Two trades today. The first was Major Malarky, backed at 9.2 and steadily moved to to 8 just before the start.  Profit of £14.25. No drama

The 2nd Galway Jack was a little more exciting, very well backed, the only question was when to exit. It did the usual “jigging” about towards the end, but I managed to close at 2.92 -I did go lower, but I’m happy with 2.92, Nearly £19 on this. For a daily profit of £33

Weekly review

After a little persuasion I restarted the Racing Trades on Wednesday, so not a full week. This week we had 10 back trades, of which 8 were winning trades. The profit was £125. We only had 1 Lay trade, which was a winner too for £36. That makes the profit for the week of £161. Not too bad. Total for the Month is £240. No reason to suppose we cannot double that, considering I put in a £100 loss last Saturday when the site went down (Betfair) and we missed a few days at the start of the week. I’m going to stick in a target to aim for of £350. thanks for your support. MG

Racing Trades :)

My poll has shocked the hell out of me, It’s early days, but it seems you guys like my Racing trades. I pulled the plug after last Saturdays nightmare. If at the end of the week the Poll wants me to carry on, I will. In the mean time I will stick up the trades I am having a go at. You are all well aware of what happens if Betfair go down. I would encourage you to open a Betdaq account if you haven’t already. Don’t open an account just on my say so. Make your own choice. I seems a good deal to me, if the liquidity starts to increase Betfair will be a ghost town within months. Plus if you have the choice you can get the best price and work out the best trade based on commission and other offers. The 1:30 Cheltenham is commission free on both exchanges today. I am moving my operation over to them as their liquidity increases. My racing trades are perfectly tradable on Betdaq.

I hate chopping and changing about, it makes me look a prick. But there is no point in writing a blog no one wants to read. The racing trades are a good way to introduce new readers to my blog. Once they are hear they may find more stuff to read that they enjoy and come back.

Anyway, these are the trades I am having today.

1:30 Cheltenham: Champagne Fever 13/2: 7.8 (BF and BD) stop loss I have at 9.8 – if it gets anywhere near there I’m out

Hit 6.2 and went on to win £25 profit on £100 trade

3:05 Southwell: Sans Loi 4/1: 4.9 on both exchanges my stop loss is 6.2

Out at 3.75 for another £30 finished 2nd and hit 1.5 in play.

Even though it’s Cheltenham, there are lots of very short favs in and impossible handicaps where many moves are happening. Look out of late money. This week at Cheltenham if they move in they rarely drift back. Look out for news about the Racing Trades. Like I say, I need to give my audience what they want, not what I want 🙂

MG

Portfolio Bets: WE 10th March Review

Five bets for this weekends Portfolio.

1st was Freiburg v Wolfsburg on Friday night and a BTTS “Yes” trade. A great start after Freiburg scored after 2 mins, 5 mins later it was 1-1 and the bet was landed for a 1pt profit. The game finished 2-5. In my write up I made reference to Freiburgs’ “leaky” defence. Crikey, it was leaky wasn’t it?

Second match was in Serie A; Udinese v Roma and we were hoping for a Draw/Home outcome. Roma took the lead in the 21st minute. Udinese looked lack lustre and I feared we would lose this one even then. It was still 0-1 at HT and the bet lost. In the 2nd half Udinese pulled a goal back, then had a player sent off. Ended 1-1. A loss of 1pt.

Next Cagliari v Sampdoria. We had a HT/FT Home/Home and 2pts riding on it. Cagliari scored after 18 mins and held on until HT. There were plenty of changes to lock in some profit on this game, before HT and after. With half the bet in the bag the rest was downhill. After the 2nd goal after 52 minutes it seemed unlikely we would lose on this. It ended 3-1 with Sampdoria scoring a late consolation goal. A cracking 6.2 points profit.

Short after this was Hannover 96 v Eintract Frankfurt in the German Bundesliga. We were hoping for a BTTS “NO” outcome and had 1pt on it. In these matches you just keep checking live score and hope you see 0-0. Well I did, and I did. It ended 0-0. Another 1.62 points in the old satchel.

Last up on Sunday night was another Serie A match between Lazio and Fiorentina. I had this as Lazio DNB. A new one for the Portfolio.  When Fiorentina scored after 21 mins I knew we were up against it. The 2nd goal shortly after HT sealed our fate. A loss of 3pts on my banker.

So overall a profit of 4.82 points adding to the 4.1 last week for overall total of 9.82 points. Continue reading

Portfolio Trades Week End 9/10 March

After last weeks great start I am under pressure to deliver the goods this week. The idea of having a portfolio of bets as opposed to random trades popping up all over the place is to add structure and direction. In short a “Plan”. If you have structure and are getting “value”. There is no reason why we shouldn’t see our banks increase. Here’s this weeks trades:

Match: Serie A: Udinese v Roma  K.O. Sat 9th March 19:45 GMT

HT/FT: Draw/Home My 5 season sheet has D/H at 4.5, the shorter more accurate forecast is 4. In the last 3 H2H has seen 2 x D/H results. VCbet is offering 6/1 and Betfair is 7 with a big gap to Lay price (8.8) Betdaq is best price at 7.4 with the lower rate 3% commission that’s 7.18

Bet: Draw/Udinese @ 7  in HT/FT   Stake: 1pt

 

Match: Serie A: Cagliari v Sampdoria K.O. Sun 10th March 14:00 GMT

HT/FT: Home/Home: I have this down as a 50% chance of H/H. The odds on offer are 11/4 with several bookies Oddchecker.  Betfair are 3.95 less comm (3.725) Betdaq are top price again at 4.1 (3.977 after comm)

BET: Cagliari/Cagliari @ 4.1 with Betdaq in HT/FT: Stake: 2pts

 

Match: Serie A:  Lazio v Fiorentina:  K.O. Sun 10th March 19:45 GMT

Draw No Bet: Lazio have avoided defeat in 8/10 games against similar opposition at home. While Fiorentina have won only twice in the last 10. The H2H home and away shows only 1 Fiorentina victory in the last 7, that was at Fiorentina.. The 1.8 on offer at Corals & Stan James (Betdaq are 1.8 as i write too) seem generous. You may get a better price with Betfair, but the market is gappy.

BET: Lazio DNB @ 1.8 with various in Draw No Bet Market: Stake: 3pts

 

Match: Bundesliga: Freiburg v Wolfsburg  K.O. Sat 9th March 14:30 GMT

BTTS “YES”: Freiburg have failed to score only once in last 10 against similar opposition, whilst conceding in all but 3 of those matches. Wolfsburg have scored in 6 of the last 10 away against similar grade while keeping a clean sheet in only 1. It seems certain that Freiburg will score. The bet comes down to will Wolfsburg? The odds on offer are 2.0. Even though Wolfsburg are not prolific goalscorers away from home. Freiburg’s leaky defence may give them a hand there. I am willing to risk 1pt what they will.

BET: BTTS “YES” @ 2 with Corals in BTTS Market: Stake: 1pt

 

Match: Bundesliga: Hannover 96 v Eintract Frankfurt  K.O. Sun 9th March 14:30 GMT

BTTS NO”: Hannover have managed to score in all of the last 10 home games against similar level opposition. However, they have also managed to keep 4 clean sheets.On the other hand in 7/10 of  Frankfurt’s similarly graded away games have resulted in one of the teams involved failing to score. At 2.62 Coral’s are way of the mark again.Some of the other bookies have it as low as 2.24. Betfair are 2.58 and Betdaq are 2.63. My tissue has it priced at 1.84. There is enough value to risk 1pt.

BET: BTTS “NO” @ 2.62 with Corals in BTTS Market: Stake: 1pt

A total of 8 points staked. Good luck if you decide to get involved. If you are new to the Portfolio bets you can get some more detailed help as to how these bets are structured within the “Portfolio Bets” tab at the top of the page. Each bet has a guide sheet to help. The staking and bank management advice can be found HERE

 

 

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