Racing Trades 21st March

If you want to see how to get the best out of my trades see HERE

Back2Lay

Chepstow 2:10 Oh Suzannah 5/1 for the Arbers otherwise 6.2 stop loss 7.8

Chepstow 4:55 Clear Mix 8/1 8.4 stop loss 10.5 – very tough market. I have some money in queue at 8.4. If I don’t get matched it will be a no bet

As tough a day as I have seen for a while. Uncompetitive races, small fields, lots of odds on chances. Very poor liquidity. I don’t put up bets for fun, they are serious opportunities to take profit. If I don’t see that I will not risk my bank just have have something to do. GL MG

UPDATE: 12:00pm Clear mix is now 7.0. I did not get ch, It goes down as no bet, I have cancelled my order, if the momentum changes we are in trouble anyway.

I have added a preview video of todays racing for those interested. I talk about how I approach each race.

Evening Review

Very poor racing today, we only had 1 bet as I said earlier in my 12:00pm update. Clear mix drifted badly and would have gone to the stop loss. Momentum is everything in these types of trades. If the price moved for us and then changes direction it rarely comes back.

Oh Suzannah looked promising for much of the morning, once the live shows came it was static before drifting a few ticks. It goes down as a loss of £6.We live to fight another day MG

Racing Trades 20th March – Evening review

If you want to see how to get the best out of my trades see HERE

Back2Lay

Warwick 4:05: Madame Allsorts: 8/1 for the arbers – 7.8 and a stop loss of 9.8

Haydock 5:20: Operatic heights 4/1 bookies. 5.0 and stop loss at 6.2

Poor day, only 2 cards and very few runners. This doesn’t suit this style of trading. I have money in the queues at these prices. It will go down as no bet if i am not matched. Gives everyone a fairer chance then. I don’t want to you to think you’re missing out !

Evening Review:

Nothing to exciting today, you may want to see the video I posted earlier where i previewed todays racing LINK. There are a couple of beauties in there. Our Joey 10-7 and I am Colin which I mentioned I wanted to Lay at 2.96 – it hit over 5. Grrrrrrrrrrrrr

Back to the trades we did have. Madame Allsorts was a nice trade, The move didn’t happen until late on, I have the video of this I may post later, it’s well boring though. 7.8 to 5.3 ain’t bad in anyones book. A profit of £42.

Our second runner was Operatic Heights, this moved in before drifting badly. It hit the stop loss and the loss was -£19.33

Our daily profit was just short of £23. Weekly goes to over £130. Monthly pushing toward £350.

Racing Trades: 16th March – Daily & weekly review

If you want to see how to get the best out of my trades see HERE

The post Cheltenham hangover has arririved. As bad a days racing on a Saturday know to man.

Back2Lays

Uttoxeter 3:50 Major Malarkey: 17/2 – 7/1 for the arbers. 9.2 can be squeezed at Betdaq. 9 on Betfair. The stop loss is at 11

Uttoxeter 4:25: Galway Jack: 11/4 for Arbers: 3.5 – Stop loss 4.4

 

The fields are devastated by Non runners. This makes many markets very hard to read. We’ll keep it tight today. MG

Daily review

A quiet day. Alot quieter than last Saturday, that’s for sure!

Two trades today. The first was Major Malarky, backed at 9.2 and steadily moved to to 8 just before the start.  Profit of £14.25. No drama

The 2nd Galway Jack was a little more exciting, very well backed, the only question was when to exit. It did the usual “jigging” about towards the end, but I managed to close at 2.92 -I did go lower, but I’m happy with 2.92, Nearly £19 on this. For a daily profit of £33

Weekly review

After a little persuasion I restarted the Racing Trades on Wednesday, so not a full week. This week we had 10 back trades, of which 8 were winning trades. The profit was £125. We only had 1 Lay trade, which was a winner too for £36. That makes the profit for the week of £161. Not too bad. Total for the Month is £240. No reason to suppose we cannot double that, considering I put in a £100 loss last Saturday when the site went down (Betfair) and we missed a few days at the start of the week. I’m going to stick in a target to aim for of £350. thanks for your support. MG

Racing Trades :)

My poll has shocked the hell out of me, It’s early days, but it seems you guys like my Racing trades. I pulled the plug after last Saturdays nightmare. If at the end of the week the Poll wants me to carry on, I will. In the mean time I will stick up the trades I am having a go at. You are all well aware of what happens if Betfair go down. I would encourage you to open a Betdaq account if you haven’t already. Don’t open an account just on my say so. Make your own choice. I seems a good deal to me, if the liquidity starts to increase Betfair will be a ghost town within months. Plus if you have the choice you can get the best price and work out the best trade based on commission and other offers. The 1:30 Cheltenham is commission free on both exchanges today. I am moving my operation over to them as their liquidity increases. My racing trades are perfectly tradable on Betdaq.

I hate chopping and changing about, it makes me look a prick. But there is no point in writing a blog no one wants to read. The racing trades are a good way to introduce new readers to my blog. Once they are hear they may find more stuff to read that they enjoy and come back.

Anyway, these are the trades I am having today.

1:30 Cheltenham: Champagne Fever 13/2: 7.8 (BF and BD) stop loss I have at 9.8 – if it gets anywhere near there I’m out

Hit 6.2 and went on to win £25 profit on £100 trade

3:05 Southwell: Sans Loi 4/1: 4.9 on both exchanges my stop loss is 6.2

Out at 3.75 for another £30 finished 2nd and hit 1.5 in play.

Even though it’s Cheltenham, there are lots of very short favs in and impossible handicaps where many moves are happening. Look out of late money. This week at Cheltenham if they move in they rarely drift back. Look out for news about the Racing Trades. Like I say, I need to give my audience what they want, not what I want 🙂

MG

Portfolio Bets: WE 10th March Review

Five bets for this weekends Portfolio.

1st was Freiburg v Wolfsburg on Friday night and a BTTS “Yes” trade. A great start after Freiburg scored after 2 mins, 5 mins later it was 1-1 and the bet was landed for a 1pt profit. The game finished 2-5. In my write up I made reference to Freiburgs’ “leaky” defence. Crikey, it was leaky wasn’t it?

Second match was in Serie A; Udinese v Roma and we were hoping for a Draw/Home outcome. Roma took the lead in the 21st minute. Udinese looked lack lustre and I feared we would lose this one even then. It was still 0-1 at HT and the bet lost. In the 2nd half Udinese pulled a goal back, then had a player sent off. Ended 1-1. A loss of 1pt.

Next Cagliari v Sampdoria. We had a HT/FT Home/Home and 2pts riding on it. Cagliari scored after 18 mins and held on until HT. There were plenty of changes to lock in some profit on this game, before HT and after. With half the bet in the bag the rest was downhill. After the 2nd goal after 52 minutes it seemed unlikely we would lose on this. It ended 3-1 with Sampdoria scoring a late consolation goal. A cracking 6.2 points profit.

Short after this was Hannover 96 v Eintract Frankfurt in the German Bundesliga. We were hoping for a BTTS “NO” outcome and had 1pt on it. In these matches you just keep checking live score and hope you see 0-0. Well I did, and I did. It ended 0-0. Another 1.62 points in the old satchel.

Last up on Sunday night was another Serie A match between Lazio and Fiorentina. I had this as Lazio DNB. A new one for the Portfolio.  When Fiorentina scored after 21 mins I knew we were up against it. The 2nd goal shortly after HT sealed our fate. A loss of 3pts on my banker.

So overall a profit of 4.82 points adding to the 4.1 last week for overall total of 9.82 points. Continue reading

Portfolio Trades Week End 9/10 March

After last weeks great start I am under pressure to deliver the goods this week. The idea of having a portfolio of bets as opposed to random trades popping up all over the place is to add structure and direction. In short a “Plan”. If you have structure and are getting “value”. There is no reason why we shouldn’t see our banks increase. Here’s this weeks trades:

Match: Serie A: Udinese v Roma  K.O. Sat 9th March 19:45 GMT

HT/FT: Draw/Home My 5 season sheet has D/H at 4.5, the shorter more accurate forecast is 4. In the last 3 H2H has seen 2 x D/H results. VCbet is offering 6/1 and Betfair is 7 with a big gap to Lay price (8.8) Betdaq is best price at 7.4 with the lower rate 3% commission that’s 7.18

Bet: Draw/Udinese @ 7  in HT/FT   Stake: 1pt

 

Match: Serie A: Cagliari v Sampdoria K.O. Sun 10th March 14:00 GMT

HT/FT: Home/Home: I have this down as a 50% chance of H/H. The odds on offer are 11/4 with several bookies Oddchecker.  Betfair are 3.95 less comm (3.725) Betdaq are top price again at 4.1 (3.977 after comm)

BET: Cagliari/Cagliari @ 4.1 with Betdaq in HT/FT: Stake: 2pts

 

Match: Serie A:  Lazio v Fiorentina:  K.O. Sun 10th March 19:45 GMT

Draw No Bet: Lazio have avoided defeat in 8/10 games against similar opposition at home. While Fiorentina have won only twice in the last 10. The H2H home and away shows only 1 Fiorentina victory in the last 7, that was at Fiorentina.. The 1.8 on offer at Corals & Stan James (Betdaq are 1.8 as i write too) seem generous. You may get a better price with Betfair, but the market is gappy.

BET: Lazio DNB @ 1.8 with various in Draw No Bet Market: Stake: 3pts

 

Match: Bundesliga: Freiburg v Wolfsburg  K.O. Sat 9th March 14:30 GMT

BTTS “YES”: Freiburg have failed to score only once in last 10 against similar opposition, whilst conceding in all but 3 of those matches. Wolfsburg have scored in 6 of the last 10 away against similar grade while keeping a clean sheet in only 1. It seems certain that Freiburg will score. The bet comes down to will Wolfsburg? The odds on offer are 2.0. Even though Wolfsburg are not prolific goalscorers away from home. Freiburg’s leaky defence may give them a hand there. I am willing to risk 1pt what they will.

BET: BTTS “YES” @ 2 with Corals in BTTS Market: Stake: 1pt

 

Match: Bundesliga: Hannover 96 v Eintract Frankfurt  K.O. Sun 9th March 14:30 GMT

BTTS NO”: Hannover have managed to score in all of the last 10 home games against similar level opposition. However, they have also managed to keep 4 clean sheets.On the other hand in 7/10 of  Frankfurt’s similarly graded away games have resulted in one of the teams involved failing to score. At 2.62 Coral’s are way of the mark again.Some of the other bookies have it as low as 2.24. Betfair are 2.58 and Betdaq are 2.63. My tissue has it priced at 1.84. There is enough value to risk 1pt.

BET: BTTS “NO” @ 2.62 with Corals in BTTS Market: Stake: 1pt

A total of 8 points staked. Good luck if you decide to get involved. If you are new to the Portfolio bets you can get some more detailed help as to how these bets are structured within the “Portfolio Bets” tab at the top of the page. Each bet has a guide sheet to help. The staking and bank management advice can be found HERE

 

 

BetForm Pro

 

 

Racing Trades:4th March

Have you read how to get the most from the trades? Link HERE

Kempton AW, Southwell Jumps and Ffos Las. It’s as bad as it gets on a Monday. I almost want Wolves! Still we’ll give it a crack.

Back2Lays

2:30 Southwell: That’s the deal 8/1  8.2 stop loss 10. Don’t chase this. I still have some money waiting. If it doesn’t get matched it’s NO BET

3:25 Ffos Las: Take of Shocs 7/1 : 8.4 stop loss 10.5

Lay2Backs

5:30 Kempton LAY Polar Venture @ 2.38 stop loss 2.16
5:40 Ffol Las Western Jo  LAY @ 3.2 – Stop Loss 2.74 DONT GET RUNNERS MIXED UP

Evening Review:

Back to 10:15 today. A dire afternoons racing but we came out in front.
1st up was That’s the deal. I had high hopes for this, but it was sluggish and didn’t go too far from where we backed it. Drifted initially before moving in close to where we started. I closed at 8.6 for a small loss.

The 2nd of the backs was Take of Shocks, it had gone as low as 6.6 before slipping back to the price I closed at at 7.2, was happy enough with the £15.
Next was the first LAY Polar Venture. This was a beauty that made just over £40. I recorded the video of the trade. I made a real cock up of this. I have posted the video just to embarrass myself.

Last of todays trades came 10 mins later. Western Jo. I made the comment “Don’t get runners mixed up”. There other short priced horse was Western Commander. I must have got them mixed up, as our horse was a big drifter and the other one steamed. It went straight into the stop loss. Good thing about Lays is I have tightened up the stop loss, so the loss wasn’t so bad.
Overall a profit of nearly £27 – not great, but it all counts

Trades for 22nd Feb

BACK2LAY TRADES

2:20 Sandown    Lord Singer 4.5 – stop loss at 5.4

4:40 Lingfield      Sail Home 3.75 –  stop loss 4.7

LAY2BACK TRADES

2.55 Sandown – Shotavodka 1.80   stop  loss 1.67

4.10 Lingfield –  Full Swing  1.91 – stop loss 1.75

If you have not traded my back2lay trades before you may want to read THIS

Update:

The 2 Back2Lays were like yo yos, the early signs were good, but the stalled, drifted and moved up and down within a tight range during the live shows. On may occasions it becomes obvious it just isn’t going to happen, and the best cause of action is to jump ship for the best price you can. I managed to get out at scratch on both of these runners during the live shows.

The Lay2backs had mixed fortunes.

Shotavodka was a big streamer, so I got this one totally wrong. In what was in effect a two horse betting market, if your on one and it’s going the wrong way, it’s not against the law to switch sides. For the records it hit the stop loss. In Full Swing faired better. During the live show, if you are in a good position it can enhance your profit substantially if you add to the trade. I did on this one and made a nice profit. 1.91 to 2.1 was the swing. Unfortunately the horse was injured during the race and I take no pleasure from any profit on this poor animal.

Crazy day, 4 horse traded scratch on 2. loss of £20 on one and a profit of £20 on the other. Zero profit, we live to fight another day.

 

 

Trades for 20th Feb

Back2Lay Ludlow 3:45 Rowlestone Lad 11/2 bookies 5.8 betfair stop loss 7.2

Back2Lay 4.05 Lingfield – Pencombe 7/2 bookies 4.4 Betfair stop loss 5.5

Update: post race

Good steam on Rowlestone Lad down to 4.7 when I initially traded out. It wasn’t until after I had done this I realised there was a substantial delay due to an incident in the previous race. The only reason I had closed the trade was because the race was very close to off time. The price still looked like there may be a couple more ticks in in so I went back in at my original 4.7. Managed to get the trade closed at 4.2 before it bounced very close to off. A good trade but messy.

The other runner pretty much hung around at at 4.4 to 4.6 all day, the quickly drifted near the off. I hate this because it becomes a 50/50 call wether we win or lose.

Be sure to read the new guide of how to trade back2Lays that I posted this afternoon.

Trades 19th Feb

1.50 Southwell LAY Roc De Prince 2.7 – STOP LOSS is 15% at 2.38

LAY FIRST and BACK BEFORE race starts on this one

 

2:50 Southwell BACK Corn Maiden 4.2 STOP LOSS is 15% at 5.0

4:35 Southwell BACK Multi Fours at 8.0 STOP LOSS is 15% at 9.4

Update:

Well I’m afraid it’s a losing day today. Small profit on Roc De Prince, but both the Back2Lays hit the Stop Loss. I’ll update the results page after racing. Still well in front for the week. Remember it’s small profits regularly using this method.