Racing Trades 27th March & Racing Preview Video – Evening Review

If you want to see how to get the best out of my trades see HERE

Back2Lays

Wetherby 4:30: Rebel Swing: 7/1 for the arbers: 8.6 stop loss 10.5

Southwell 5:30 Al Amaan: 3/1 4.3 stop loss 5.4

Lay2Backs

Southwell 3:35 LAY Hanna Turn @ 1.9 stop loss 1.77

 

Evening Review:

First I’ll rip though the racing trades. Hannahs Turn was a nice drifter went out to around 2.2 before coming in close to the start. I got out easily at 2.14 to make £23 profit.

The first Back Rebel Swing looked unlikely to get matched at one time. But even close to the start 8.6 was availablr. It flirted with that price before moving down a few ticks to make £12.

The 2nd of the backs looked promising, it went in as low as 3.85 before bouncing. I closed for a 2 tick profit as I could see the favourite was being backed in. It made £4.

Overall not too bad, the daily profit was nearly £40.

I think the preview video through up a couple of gems.The 1st one I mentioned Special mix in the 2:20 was a drifter unfortunately, but 10 – 12.5 is not the end of the world. Global Flyer in the 2:50 Weth went from 10 to 7, Neptune Equester was backed as soon as Brian Ellison had winner in the 2:20. It cam e in from 4.2 to as low as 3.45. It drifted back out before the off. But went on to win.

My fancy for Rylee Mooch in the 4:05 Lingfield was well founded. It was backed from 4.9 into 3.8.

If you think the preview videos are worthwhile, and you get something from them, please vote on the poll in the sidebar. If you think I am wasting my time, your vote to say they are not helping you would also be appreciated. The pools are a good way for me to see what my readers want to see from me. Cheers MG

 

Racing Trades & Preview Video 26th March

If you want to see how to get the best out of my trades see HERE

Back2Lays
3:30 Southwell: Rambo Will 4/1 if you want to arb. 5.2 Stop Loss of 6.4

3:40 Fontwell: Peut Etre Sivola 7/1: 7.6 : stop loss at 9.6

4:40 Fontwell: Tchang Goon 7/1: 8.2: Stop loss at 10

Video Preview:

Evening Review:

Racing trades: The first one was a beauty, which was just as well considering what came next. There was a small reduction Factor of 4.5% on Rambo Will, this meant the odds were reduced to 4.87. The late money came and an easy exit of 3.5 was achieved. A nice profit of just short of £40.
The other 2 trades were both looking good after an hour or so, but gambles on other horses later on in both races saw them hit the stop losses. They both ran decent enough races. All 3 runners today were placed. Not that that makes any difference! Miraculously we came out of today with £3 profit. More luck than judgement I think. This month is turning out to be a toughie.

Video Preview:
Here are some of the observations I made this morning. It didn’t go exactly how I thought, but I hope I pointed you in the right direction on these.
2:20 Gabriel the Duke 2.0 into 1.7
2:30 Thereabouts (Luke Morris) 3.8 into 2.9
3:00 Lay Indias Song. 2.35 out to 2.96
3:20: Abhaarth 11- 7.2
3:50 Buy Art 2.62 into 2.02
4:20: Dutch Old Master 4. 7 – 2.49
5:00: Cecily Parsley 9The Hugh Taylor horse – 1.80 to 2.08 in place market

If you pick your way through the waffle there were a few good pointers again.:)
Cheers MG

Portfolio Bets: WE 10th March Review

Five bets for this weekends Portfolio.

1st was Freiburg v Wolfsburg on Friday night and a BTTS “Yes” trade. A great start after Freiburg scored after 2 mins, 5 mins later it was 1-1 and the bet was landed for a 1pt profit. The game finished 2-5. In my write up I made reference to Freiburgs’ “leaky” defence. Crikey, it was leaky wasn’t it?

Second match was in Serie A; Udinese v Roma and we were hoping for a Draw/Home outcome. Roma took the lead in the 21st minute. Udinese looked lack lustre and I feared we would lose this one even then. It was still 0-1 at HT and the bet lost. In the 2nd half Udinese pulled a goal back, then had a player sent off. Ended 1-1. A loss of 1pt.

Next Cagliari v Sampdoria. We had a HT/FT Home/Home and 2pts riding on it. Cagliari scored after 18 mins and held on until HT. There were plenty of changes to lock in some profit on this game, before HT and after. With half the bet in the bag the rest was downhill. After the 2nd goal after 52 minutes it seemed unlikely we would lose on this. It ended 3-1 with Sampdoria scoring a late consolation goal. A cracking 6.2 points profit.

Short after this was Hannover 96 v Eintract Frankfurt in the German Bundesliga. We were hoping for a BTTS “NO” outcome and had 1pt on it. In these matches you just keep checking live score and hope you see 0-0. Well I did, and I did. It ended 0-0. Another 1.62 points in the old satchel.

Last up on Sunday night was another Serie A match between Lazio and Fiorentina. I had this as Lazio DNB. A new one for the Portfolio.  When Fiorentina scored after 21 mins I knew we were up against it. The 2nd goal shortly after HT sealed our fate. A loss of 3pts on my banker.

So overall a profit of 4.82 points adding to the 4.1 last week for overall total of 9.82 points. Continue reading

Portfolio Trades Week End 9/10 March

After last weeks great start I am under pressure to deliver the goods this week. The idea of having a portfolio of bets as opposed to random trades popping up all over the place is to add structure and direction. In short a “Plan”. If you have structure and are getting “value”. There is no reason why we shouldn’t see our banks increase. Here’s this weeks trades:

Match: Serie A: Udinese v Roma  K.O. Sat 9th March 19:45 GMT

HT/FT: Draw/Home My 5 season sheet has D/H at 4.5, the shorter more accurate forecast is 4. In the last 3 H2H has seen 2 x D/H results. VCbet is offering 6/1 and Betfair is 7 with a big gap to Lay price (8.8) Betdaq is best price at 7.4 with the lower rate 3% commission that’s 7.18

Bet: Draw/Udinese @ 7  in HT/FT   Stake: 1pt

 

Match: Serie A: Cagliari v Sampdoria K.O. Sun 10th March 14:00 GMT

HT/FT: Home/Home: I have this down as a 50% chance of H/H. The odds on offer are 11/4 with several bookies Oddchecker.  Betfair are 3.95 less comm (3.725) Betdaq are top price again at 4.1 (3.977 after comm)

BET: Cagliari/Cagliari @ 4.1 with Betdaq in HT/FT: Stake: 2pts

 

Match: Serie A:  Lazio v Fiorentina:  K.O. Sun 10th March 19:45 GMT

Draw No Bet: Lazio have avoided defeat in 8/10 games against similar opposition at home. While Fiorentina have won only twice in the last 10. The H2H home and away shows only 1 Fiorentina victory in the last 7, that was at Fiorentina.. The 1.8 on offer at Corals & Stan James (Betdaq are 1.8 as i write too) seem generous. You may get a better price with Betfair, but the market is gappy.

BET: Lazio DNB @ 1.8 with various in Draw No Bet Market: Stake: 3pts

 

Match: Bundesliga: Freiburg v Wolfsburg  K.O. Sat 9th March 14:30 GMT

BTTS “YES”: Freiburg have failed to score only once in last 10 against similar opposition, whilst conceding in all but 3 of those matches. Wolfsburg have scored in 6 of the last 10 away against similar grade while keeping a clean sheet in only 1. It seems certain that Freiburg will score. The bet comes down to will Wolfsburg? The odds on offer are 2.0. Even though Wolfsburg are not prolific goalscorers away from home. Freiburg’s leaky defence may give them a hand there. I am willing to risk 1pt what they will.

BET: BTTS “YES” @ 2 with Corals in BTTS Market: Stake: 1pt

 

Match: Bundesliga: Hannover 96 v Eintract Frankfurt  K.O. Sun 9th March 14:30 GMT

BTTS NO”: Hannover have managed to score in all of the last 10 home games against similar level opposition. However, they have also managed to keep 4 clean sheets.On the other hand in 7/10 of  Frankfurt’s similarly graded away games have resulted in one of the teams involved failing to score. At 2.62 Coral’s are way of the mark again.Some of the other bookies have it as low as 2.24. Betfair are 2.58 and Betdaq are 2.63. My tissue has it priced at 1.84. There is enough value to risk 1pt.

BET: BTTS “NO” @ 2.62 with Corals in BTTS Market: Stake: 1pt

A total of 8 points staked. Good luck if you decide to get involved. If you are new to the Portfolio bets you can get some more detailed help as to how these bets are structured within the “Portfolio Bets” tab at the top of the page. Each bet has a guide sheet to help. The staking and bank management advice can be found HERE

 

 

BetForm Pro

 

 

Match Odds – Potential Steamers Sat/Sun

I have a couple of potential steamers in the match odds markets for this weekend.

Man Utd away to QPR are 1.59.

WBA at home to Sunderland are 1.99

Both these kick off at 3:00pm

In the Milan derby tomorrow evening I have been tracking AC Milan all week. After a brilliant display against Barcelona and the patchy form from Inter, can anybody tell me why their price will not move in? They both played in midweek, Milan at home on Wednesday and Inter away in Romania on Thursday. Most football fans will watched the Milan v Barca game and I think this will be reflected in a steam of their price over the weekend.

Look for confirmation of a move and then help yourself.

Update: Sunday 8:45am

Man Utd: I managed to get out at 1.57. For a 2 tick profit

WBA : Took 1.87 (I actually already had some on at 2.06) 12 tick profit on this

Milan : Now into 2.2 from 2.34. A 7 tick gain so far

Make no mistake, these are BIG ticks. In a slow moving market with high liquidity you can get large amounts on for relatively low risk. These are the bread and better trades that underpin my betting.

Come back often for more trades like this.