Bottle Job

It is often the case that “public horses” that are heavily traded. When I say “public horses” i am talking about Pricewise or Hugh Taylors’ selections. Sometimes they steam right in, but mostly the move in odds happens very quickly after they are public. There is then a massive amount of traded volume on them up to the on course live shows, but often they do not go too far.

When the live show kicks in it is quite often that although the off course bookmakers have taken  their share of bets on these horses, the on course bookmakers haven’t. So quite often are keen to lay them as the “value” price that tipsters recommended the bets at are far away from the actual price now. The market becomes unbalanced. This video shows such a horse Ashpan Sam, which was a Pricewise extra selection.

It was facing concerted pressure form the favourite Intrinsic. My entry point was solid, but took a while for it to tip into profit. I had a firm exit position planned in case the trade went too far against me. There is a fine line between bottle and stupidity in many cases. I’d like to think this was bottle, and faith in my opening position being correct, rather than stupidity, although others will surely disagree.

Eventually  the trade went into a positive trade, at one point it looked really good. But as often happens, it didn’t quite reach it’s potential due to me being over cautious and then over ambitious. I though this was an interesting trade, which is why I posted it.

Breakdown:

My initial assessment showed me that this was essentially a 2 horse market, not a lot of activity was happening outside the front 2 in the market. This can be a dangerous game you are relying on only horse to apply pressure (or not depending if you back or lay). When I initially enter the market, my thinking is that Intrinsic looks strong against the Pricewise runner. They are both trading at the bottom of their ranges, but the biggest consideration was that Alspath Sam was struggling to break through the cross over at 4. As a “gamble” I would have expected it to easily break through this already if it was going to continue to on it’s way. I thought the fact that it hadn’t was significant. My plan then was to try to get a Lay matched under this crossover as to reduce my potential loss. Over the crossover I am gaining twice as much as I am potentially losing, so it’s an efficient place to be. It’s clear looking at the range it has traded in and the amount matched that this isn’t going to far outside of this range. The other thing to note is this is a slack book. There is plenty of space for the prices to move a few ticks within the book without having an effect on other odds.

I set my exit point to ensure I don’t lose to much if it does break through. If it had of broken through past my exit position at 3.85 there is no telling where it would end up. Sitting and hoping it would come back was not on the agenda at all. Once I got a couple of Back trades though and nicked a couple of ticks, it moved up my scratch position below my exit position, meaning a no loss trade.

Jut to add that there are limited places available for the remaining 2 Courses that will plug you into the Mentorship Program. Although I haven’t even released the date yet for the last course it is close to being over subscribed. If you are interested please make sure you book soon.

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As always I welcome your questions and comments. MG

9 thoughts on “Bottle Job

  1. Thanks for posting this video. It is interesting for me because it highlights the dilemma of how far do you let a trade go into the red before exiting at a loss? In the video you state that your exit point is 3.85 can you elaborate why you chose that as your exit? Also at one point in the video (aprox 2:14) it appears that money starts to get matched at 3.85 and your mouse is hovering around that area but you did not exit. Do you wait for a certain amount of money to be matched at your exit point before entering to exit order? Or do you rely on experience to judge if the price will bounce back?

    Cheers.

    • Hi Vince – It’s my exit because if the horses breaks though the cross over and then breaks though the bottom of it’s support, there is a good chance it will carry on and my position would be out of my control.
      The reason I didn’t exit was at the point the book was very slack, nothing had changed i.e the other runners hadn’t started to drift, it’s a very quick judgement based on my experience i guess. If you cut out of a trade immediately it touches your “line in the sand” you will throw away what turn out to be green trades needlessly. Saying that, there will almost always a chance for the price to bounce back if it moves quickly past your exit, which happens sometimes. I think you need to have some flexibility built into your trades, otherwise you might as well use the mechanical stop loss. What I say to my guys in the Mentorship program is when starting out you need less flexibility, as you skills and experience grow you can afford more flexibility. There are lots of things to judge before pulling the trigger. Slack, opposition, momentum, WOM all have a bearing on your position. The more of these you can understand the more chance of getting it right I guess. Hope this goes some way to answering your question Vince – Cheers MG

  2. Steve,another great video.I very much appreciate your break down of your trade and answer to Vince’s question.Thank you Vince for your question,it was very much an area that I am very weak on.

  3. Steve,forgive me – but I forgot to ask you a question that your video prompted.

    If your trade had gone against you and you had exited your [lay] trade at 3.85, would you have considered opening a new trade in the ‘opposite direction’ of your original trade ie would you have backed the Pricewise runner or would you have just accepted your loss and moved on to the next race. Many thanks Nick.

    • Hi Nick, Thanks for your comment.
      What I am keen to say is that you need to treat each trade as a separate event. Jumping from one side of the book to another every time your trade goes against you is bad practice.
      If my exit had been properly breached, I would have closed and then made a very quick reassessment – In fact this is something I constantly do. My position is being reassessed almost constantly. In this case as I the horse had broken through the crossover and the breakout of it’s established range there is a good chance it may continue to come in. But that would depend on if there was little or no opposition and at what juncture the other runners were in their ranges. For example, had any broken though the top of their range and drifting badly. Had something happened to Intrinsic? That had broken out and was in full flow, but it’s range was now growing and it’s possible for a reversal all the way back – There is plenty of room for it to drift. If Intrinsic had been traded up and down in a tight range then the question I would have in the back of my mind is “If I back this now – how far can it go before something stops it”?
      There is a lot that you need to assess, but it isn’t as complex or difficult to do as it sounds. The best way I can think to explain it is akin to screen recording software. The way that works is every 100 frames (depends on your settings) it records every pixel on the screen, but the frames in between it only records the pixels that have changed. My point being that some of the information on your screen will not change, so you need to be understanding what HAS changed. Note that this isn’t an exact science. It is open to interpretation, we all know that when you’re making quick decisions that sometimes do not have the quality you would like. Trading is like that, but you can train yourself to get better at these assessments. Once you know what you’re looking for.
      Hope this makes some sort of sense Nick. Cheers Steve

  4. Hiya Steve
    As always a honest and easy to understand video and a great help to me so thanks for that. Just a couple of questions Why lay the pricewise horse if you are expecting it to drift as opposed to backing the fav which would give a lower liability but have the same result also a general question If you do have to take a loss would you recommend to then leave that race alone and accept the loss or do you go back in and try and get that back to at least zero, although do appreciate this maybe just chasing losses and for me at a time my head isn’t thinking as clear as it should be as I would generally be pissed off at having to take a loss. Thanks again for the hard work you put into these videos, they have really turned my trading around. Have a good weekend Andrew

    • Hiya Steve

      Think the second part of my question was answered above so thanks anyway and im guessing my first question was the fact that the pricewise horse was at the xo so giving greater return for liability to lay that horse first as opposed to backing the fav. I am abit slow lol thanks again

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