It is often the case that “public horses” that are heavily traded. When I say “public horses” i am talking about Pricewise or Hugh Taylors’ selections. Sometimes they steam right in, but mostly the move in odds happens very quickly after they are public. There is then a massive amount of traded volume on them up to the on course live shows, but often they do not go too far.
When the live show kicks in it is quite often that although the off course bookmakers have taken their share of bets on these horses, the on course bookmakers haven’t. So quite often are keen to lay them as the “value” price that tipsters recommended the bets at are far away from the actual price now. The market becomes unbalanced. This video shows such a horse Ashpan Sam, which was a Pricewise extra selection.
It was facing concerted pressure form the favourite Intrinsic. My entry point was solid, but took a while for it to tip into profit. I had a firm exit position planned in case the trade went too far against me. There is a fine line between bottle and stupidity in many cases. I’d like to think this was bottle, and faith in my opening position being correct, rather than stupidity, although others will surely disagree.
Eventually the trade went into a positive trade, at one point it looked really good. But as often happens, it didn’t quite reach it’s potential due to me being over cautious and then over ambitious. I though this was an interesting trade, which is why I posted it.
My initial assessment showed me that this was essentially a 2 horse market, not a lot of activity was happening outside the front 2 in the market. This can be a dangerous game you are relying on only horse to apply pressure (or not depending if you back or lay). When I initially enter the market, my thinking is that Intrinsic looks strong against the Pricewise runner. They are both trading at the bottom of their ranges, but the biggest consideration was that Alspath Sam was struggling to break through the cross over at 4. As a “gamble” I would have expected it to easily break through this already if it was going to continue to on it’s way. I thought the fact that it hadn’t was significant. My plan then was to try to get a Lay matched under this crossover as to reduce my potential loss. Over the crossover I am gaining twice as much as I am potentially losing, so it’s an efficient place to be. It’s clear looking at the range it has traded in and the amount matched that this isn’t going to far outside of this range. The other thing to note is this is a slack book. There is plenty of space for the prices to move a few ticks within the book without having an effect on other odds.
I set my exit point to ensure I don’t lose to much if it does break through. If it had of broken through past my exit position at 3.85 there is no telling where it would end up. Sitting and hoping it would come back was not on the agenda at all. Once I got a couple of Back trades though and nicked a couple of ticks, it moved up my scratch position below my exit position, meaning a no loss trade.
Jut to add that there are limited places available for the remaining 2 Courses that will plug you into the Mentorship Program. Although I haven’t even released the date yet for the last course it is close to being over subscribed. If you are interested please make sure you book soon.
As always I welcome your questions and comments. MG