I have spent some time looking at this match and to be honest I don’t have a strong opinion about it. Other than I will be cheering on Germany. It may be unpalatable to many Brits that I would rather see our biggest rivals prosper. But I am a sports fan, a football fan. Politics and all the stuff you read in the Daily Mail does not interest me in the slightest.
Before I started trading seriously I would go to as many games as I could, and watched as many as I could get away with. Once I became a Professional, I had unlimited access to watching sport. When my wife says to me on a Wednesday night “Can we nip over to my Brothers?” I say – “Sorry love, I have to work……” Champions League is a real pain sometimes. There is a downside to that. When i was a kid, the only live football was pretty much the FA Cup Final and World Cup Final. Nowadays there are 20 plus live matches a week. But watching Sport professionally takes the magic away. I cannot sit and enjoy a match anymore. My head is full of numbers and looking where prices are and what I think they should be. I am always looking for a “way in”. The days I used to sit in my Mum’s kitchen on a winters evening listening to the radio while Liverpool conquered all in the European Cup, drawing that picture in your head as the commentator described the action are long gone. Instead of hearing about Mark Lawrenson making a great last ditch tackle, I now have to listen to his inane sarcasm and snide. I long for those days from the late 70’s early 80’s sometimes.
Anyway, back to the match.
As I write (9:30am on match day) Brazil are 2.74. Germany 3 and the draw 3.25. on Betfair. The Brazil price has just made a sharp drop in the last 3 hours, at 6:30am they were 2.86. The under over 2.5 goals market has the unders at 1.63 and overs at 2.56. The stats obviously are saying it’s a tight low scoring match in prospect. All of the quarter final games were a very different animal to the free scoring group matches. Almost an anti climax in my opinion. Although the drama was of course at the highest level. Sporting Index total goals is always a decent guide to Goal Expectation. They have the spread at 2.15 – 2.35 (so 2.25 goals) Pinnacle have under 2.5 goals at 1.598. This confirms it’s 0-0 lol. The thing to remember about knock out competitions is if you are 1-0 down, you need to score. So sitting back is not an option. Any early goal may see the game open up somewhat. I suspect that the stats may be wrong, but I am not willing to bet on that at this point. A better tactic may be to see how the game starts. If it is open from the off you may see the under 2.5 goals price hold for some time. Remember the time decay will tick this down to 1.01 by final whistle if no goal. that’s only 62 ticks in 90 plus stoppage (6 minutes both halves?) There will be a sweet spot in this when it stalls. If you use software that can plot last price matched with candlesticks this may be helpful.
This is one of the grip games between Columbia v Greece. You can see on the first picture how the price has been consistent for some time, it’s not dropping hardly at all. This is a lay bet of £300 at 1,46 -A liability of £138.96. This wasn’t a straight bet. It was a trade with an exit position. I was prepared to risk no more that £11 which was at around 1.41. I hoped I would get at least 12 minutes before the time decay reached the point where I was not prepared to lose anymore.
As it happened there was a quick goal and I was able to use Gruss to “hedge” my position make an even profit, whatever the result. However, this gives you more flexibility. I took out my liability and gave myself almost £20 if under 2.5 and £177 if over. As the goal came so early there were lots of options. The result was 3-0 and the last goal came in injury time. I had “greened up” well before then.
UPDATE: This is what happened
A more interesting angle I have looked at is how the match will be played out. Brazil has a reputation for playing the “beautiful game”. Creative, exciting attacking football. Pardon? Think you are getting them mixed up with Peles’ 1070’s team. This Brazil ain’t like that. They are average as a Football team. The back 4, who are missing their captain Thiago Silva are shaky. I don’t think they have played anyone yet with the finishing ability of the German attack. I think the thing you cannot underestimate is their desire to win and their team sprit. This I believe will be their downfall.
The emotions after Neymars’ unfortunate injury are running very high. Did you see the reaction from David Luis’ when he scored? It reminded my of Maradona when he ran to the camera with 3 grams of coke falling out his nose when he scored against Peru. He was almost possessed. When you watch Luis play, he charges around the field kicking everyone. OK he can take a great free kick, but £38M PSG? Think José will be very pleased with himself!
Lets add to this. Fouls: Brazil have committed more fouls (96) than any other team in the World Cup so far (1 extra game compared to many) They have also had the most yellow cards (10). Compared to Germany’s 57 fouls and 4 yellow cards. The aggressive display of kicking lumps out of James Rodriguez in the Columbia match was a disgrace. But incredibly they got away with it. So far Brazil’s game plan if clear. Kick as many of them as you can, and rely on the only World Class player they have, to do something amazing. Neymar.- oh dear.
So what about the referee? Mexican Marco Rodriguez has officiated 2 matches so far. Belgium v Algeria, where he issued 2 yellow cards in a rather tepid affair. The other match was Uruguay v Italy. He missed Suarez chasing Italy’s Chiellini around the penalty area like a Staffordshire Bull Terrier chasing the postman down the path before sinking his gnashers into him. I think the fact even though this was bought to his attention and did nothing will bring even more focus onto his refereeing of this match. The fact FIFA has given him this match is strange. He issued 4 yellow cards and 1 red in that game.
Señor Rodriguez has in his international career before the WC had officiated in 79 matches where he awarded on average 0.37 penalties per match. 0.65 red cards (the most of all the World Cup referees) and an higher than average 4.43 yellow cards per match.
So in summary: We have bunch of thugs wanting to kick lumps out of everyone to disguise the fact they are not as good the legends before them. ed by a crazy guy with wild eyes. Playing a team that likes to fall over and a ref who cannot hide and is under intense scrutiny. With the added pressure of Herr Löw basically saying his team needs some protection form the gang of thugs that have been masquerading as a football team. Backed up by the highest percentage of red cards shown by any referee officiating at this years World Cup.
Sending Off? On Betfair is 4.2 – It’s not a serious bet, but if will keep me interested until something better pops up.
Think this shows the way I go about thinking about ways to get involved. If you think a little outside the box it can lead you to interesting theories.
Post Match Analysis:
Mixed results here. Got the Lay on under 2.5 goals bit about as right as you can and the Brazil kicking Germany about as wrong as you can get. There is a video of the under 2.5 Lay. My plan was to stay in the market until the odds started to drop again. I think that up to 10 minutes in market would have been possible for a maximum risk of £5-7 for my £100 stake.
This result will go down in history as one of the most incredible score lines in World Cup history. I wrote about the “sprit” of Brazil. I watched them sing the anthem, which I think is telling. Brazil sang their hearts out. Their chests puffed out with pride and they went for it to a man. Germany in comparison were a bit flat. They had a look of determination, where as Brazil looked like the occasion had taken over. I had it in my mind that this may happen as I said. I was confident Brazil would lose they heads. But I thought this would manifest itself in violence. The manifestation was actually capitulation. As the German attack bore down on them with relentless efficiency they turned into a pub team playing on a Sunday morning with hangovers. Instead of taking the mantle of Captain and leading by example or even doing his usual running around like a headless chicken routine, our friend David Luis went A.W.O.L. I almost felt sorry for him and the muppets that paid £38M for him.
This game turned out to be just about the cleanest game in World Cup history. There were 25 fouls in the match. 11 by Brazil and 14 by Germany. This resulted in 1 yellow card. This was probably due to the score. Basically Brazil gave up at 2-0.
One of the comments I made on Twitter (@itsamugsgame) is that this could destroy Brazilian football for a generation. I think Alan Shearer read this, as he said it at the end of the match too 🙂 The M.O.T.D crew were pathetic. In fairness to Alan Hansen. He was on the money before the match in his assessment of Luis. He said he was a liability. That was spot on. But the tone and the way they spoke about the match like they were talking about the passing of someone like Sir Bobby Charlton was pathetic. Never mind poor old Brazil. Hey they have dismantled plenty of teams over the years. What about giving the proper respect to Germany? The way they handled themselves at the end of the game was a lesson in sportsmanship and humility. Huge respect to them and Big Phil Scolari. A “big man” in every respect.
The current odds in the Tournament winners market of 1.81 is a over reaction. My instinct is to get a Lay bet in. I cannot imagine them being 1.81 as they line up next Sunday, whoever they play.
Great match. A definite “I watched that game” moment in Football history.