Only Fools Rush In

As I am putting together my material for the upcoming Trading Education and Mentoring program Events. I find myself looking at every aspect of what I do and being more critical than usual. I am very self critical, I find it’s the best way to improve performance.

One of my big weaknesses is sometimes I make instinctive decisions. These sometimes, especially in the short term go against me. In this video I am a little more “restrained”.

Have a look at the video (it’s best watched in YouTube in HD). Then read my critique and see my thoughts about it when i watched it back.

00:00 I start by talking about how I am half asleep. This isn’t a great way to trade. I am not actually tired. I am doing other stuff at the same time. It’s a bad habit!  This is a Monday afternoon, the markets are very volatile and “slack”. There was not a lot happening so I thought I’d try and scalp a few ticks. As I say, I am not great at scalping, I am always looking for the Glory Shot and a Swing. But I have a crack anyway. Things are going ok, I don’t use huge stakes scalping, like I say, I’m not too confident at it. Stick to what you know and what you do best!

01:30 I miss the initial move on the 2nd fav, it’s moved in 5 or 6 ticks and broken through it’s cross over at 6. The 3rd fav has also sneaked in a couple of ticks and has downward momentum. This has pushed out the fav out and we have at least a 2v1 situation against the fav. Things are looking more interesting so i start to build a position.

02:39 This is a very interesting position. The fav has reached the cross over at 2. This is where there is more risk to backers as the tick size has increased. Once it goes over this it’s even more likely to drift. There is downward pressure on 3 of 4 of the other runners. If you look at the WOM there is 23% on the BACK side and 77% on the LAY side. I think many would interpret this as it will come in. You hear me say often about fill rates, and “watch how the money is being matched” – Here’s a perfect example. WOM means nothing without momentum.

04:25 –  The pleasing thing about this was I pretty much got most of my closing money matched at 2.16/2.18. 2.18 was the top price. It makes a change for hanging in too long and not getting maximum profit from the trade.

It looked like it wasn’t going to be too exciting at the start, but turned out ok. The reason I even started the video was because I wanted to show that it was ok to not get involved if there is nothing happening.

Hope you enjoyed this, As always I welcome your comments.

Just to say also that I have had an incredible amount of interest in people wanting to register their interest in the next programs I am running in June/July. If you want to find out about these before I go public. Drop me an email at mugsgame@hotmail.co.uk. There is absolutely no obligation – that goes without saying.

Cheers MG

18 thoughts on “Only Fools Rush In

  1. Hi pal, great example for me as I struggle with patients a lot, carnt seem to get it through to my head to wait for the market to present me with my opportunity . Just a quick question if you hadn’t of already taken a position when the market reached 2 would you still have layed that price or would you of stayed out? Cheers

    • Hey Paul,
      I would have layer at that price. I was scalping because the market just wasn’t doing anything. As soon as it started to kick into life I noticed the opportunity to nick a few quid. Does that make sense mate?
      Cheers
      MG

  2. Another great video Mugs…..
    As an observation, with the 1st fav drifting and the 2nd fav now steaming in, would you ever consider a double trade? getting on them both?
    I know its always easy to look back on the trade and make the assumption after, but with the downward momentum so strong on the 2nd fav did it cross your mind to do this at any point.
    cheers
    Dave

    • Hi Dave – Whenever I do this I have my pants taken down. In this instance, the reason I didn’t back the 2nd fav was if you look at the whole market, you will notice that there are 2 other runners with some positive pressure. The reason that this trade was “safe” was because if the 2nd fav had run out of steam, there was a possibility one of the other would take up the slack. I think they were all moving in because the fav was so weak, not particularly because the 2nd fav was strong. I think one of the easiest trades to execute is when you can identify one runner that can be “bullied” by most of the others. There was no need to over complicate the trade. In hindsight I should have increased my stake on the lay. But in answer to your question. No 🙂 Cheers MG

  3. Message of the month for me. I see my so often rush into a market and don´t take enough time, but i´m not as you, most of the time i leave the market with 5 ticks loss :-). Great video
    Tomorrow i will keep on thinking that and change that. Thanks

    T

    • It’s all about making small improvements Tim.The GB Cycling team head coach has this philosophy . You make tiny improvements in every aspect of what you do. together they make a huge difference. 🙂 Cheers MG

  4. Hi MG,

    another quality video plus comments. Many thanks.

    Just a quick comment re your mention of the back to lay “monkies” and that the favorite was a front runner. Did you see the in – play price after a few furlongs? Down to around 1.80. Was you tempted to jump on or are you the past in-play scene?

    May I also ask about stake sizing. I see that you mainly use £200 stakes. Is this a rigid amount or do you vary due to event etc? Also, is your staking part of a bank strategy?

    • Hi Darren, Thanks for your kind words. I do bet in Play, and am happy to take advantage of the B2L angle. However. taking flat races in play has much more danger – miss the break and your dead. In general I find it riskier. It’s ok if you profile the horses throughly. I think it’s “done to death” now. It’s another one of those angles which over exposure has ruined. But still works if you know what your doing. It just takes much more effort and skill. You will see me many times take trades in play. This is in NH races where there the horse is LENGTHS ahead and is obviously going to lead uncontested. Most times this is tiding up my trade and I already have some profit. I stress this is a stand alone strategy. Not chasing money because I messed up the pre play trade. Doing that will land you straight in the poor house.
      Regarding staking – I keep it sensible on the videos – I don’t want to scare you off lol. Seriously though. I will stick as much money in as I think the market will take. There is no point having £3k on a trade and not being able to exit if things go wrong. Many of the markets nowadays are not capable of taking heavy stakes.If you were trading the fav in the 5:20 yesterday you will know what I mean. The £200 is my initial stake. It works for me as a multiple of whatever I need up putting in using my position building. My recommendation is keep it sensible. It’s easy to build up big losses very quickly if you’re too cocky 🙂 It is part of a bank strategy, but if I am honest, I have enough experience to have moved past the rigid “bank” staking. Although I will recommend that anyone with limited experience stick more rigidly to a staking plan and exit strategy. Hope this answers your question Daz – Cheers MG

  5. I am a fool. I rushed in on this race. If I remember correctly I thought the fav was going to drift 3-4 mins out, layed it and lost around 7 ticks before I cut out. Managed to get around 5 ticks back at the end but overall a loss down to my impatience.

    • Alan, The beauty about this trading business is the ability to learn from your mistakes. I make them every single day. I draw a line, file under “don’t do that again stupid”. It usually takes a few more painful experiences until it sinks in. If you know where you’re going wrong you can put it right. The hard part is not knowing what you’re doing wrong. I find my trading always improves when I take a step back. This is really tough, as it really isn’t natural for me 🙂 Cheers MG

    • It answers my question perfectly thanks. You are right about the B2L being worked to death. You can almost see the pre race traders corrupting the price on known front runners to take out any value and hence theres not too much adjustment required in play to make the animal its correct price to where it should be on a form basis. Ive noticed that the best B2L is where there is no obvious pace and some homework can pay dividends, both pre race and in-play. My version of in-play is usually up to the first fence or hurdle, by the way.

      As to the banking and stake element, I asked as to make decent money you have to play high(ish). Its just a question for me of my skill level, strike rate and overall confidence as to when I should up the ante. At present, due to self imposed restrictions on stakes, the best I seem to achieve is a small, steady profit of around 10% of my current bank per day. I need to let my trading pay for itself, so its slowly, slowly for now until I’m ready.

      Once again, many thanks for all your help and the time taken to not only post but to answer questions.

      Where will your June/July trading event take place?

      Daz

      • I think you have called the B2L spot on. The angle here is hold up horses that travel strongly – even better if they don’t find off the bridle – back2lay then use the profit to lay. like you say it’s how me work. I have a “mental notebook”. I know which travel well and help myself regularly. Also horses that play up and sweat, but always give good running. You can lay them before the race and trade out as they drift. Then go in at a falsely high price because of their antics and get out in play. Mostly all risk free as you have made the profit with the initial trade.
        A 10% return is excellent. What you will find though is it gets harder and harder the higher you go. There is a point when you reach the optimum stakes that the market can stand and you are comfortable with. it’s always very easy to get your money into a market – not so easy getting it back out again. Things can go very wrong and very quickly.
        My next course will be late June and in Coventry. I want to get a few under my belt before I think of doing a “world tour”. I’m not Bon Jovi…….:) Cheers MG

    • mg would you hold one of your courses in ireland if you had enough interest? and your thoughts on the grand national is it a good race for a newbie like me or should i leave it alone. i imagine the amount of money on the race would make things slower to happen or is it the same as any other race?cheers for another great video.

      • I would if I had enough interest. Can’t see that in the short term, maybe one day. It’s very early days though.
        The GN is just another race to me, it doesn’t suit my trading style, but there are always ways to make a few quid. Appreciate you comments about the vid 🙂
        Cheers MG

        • Am finding it hard to make a good decision initially am on the wrong side of things to often. Which of you’re video can help me out on this problem having terrible time of it last few days any help would be appreciated am lost once more thought I making small progress but now not so sure

          • Try the last one. “Only fools rush in” – My point is if you’re not sure why are you in the market? Wait and see what’s going on. Sit and just watch the market and get a feel for what’s happening. The more experience you get the easier this becomes. I can go to a market and make a judgement in 20 seconds. But if I take 2 mins my success rate increases massively. There is no one sizer fits all way to trade racing. It’s complex and difficult. But there are many small pieces that make up the bigger picture. It’s all about collecting those pieces. If you watch my videos I’m sure you will find them. But it’s then a case of putting them together and recognising pattens . When i say Patterns, I mean a pattern between what you are seeing in front of you and what you have seen me do before. Sorry I can’t give you the definitive answer, I’m afraid it’s like that. Take you time, take a step back and go steady, it’s surprising how it comes to you. – Hope this helps PH – Cheers MG

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