SPOTY

It’s early days in the BBC Sports Personality Of The Year market. But it’s worth considering and I like to take part. It has been a profitable event for me over the years, and it’s fun to work out over the year.

There are big events that dominate the winners of this event. If you look at previous winners over the years you will see what these are.

Olympic Gold medel winners – Multiple medal winners do best

The British winners of the worlds top sporting events that historically we never do well at. The Tour De France, Wimbledon, Golf Majors and Formula 1.

Now, there is no Olympics this year, and although we had a couple of good results in the Winter Olympics – this event hasn’t really caught the imagination of the public. After Andy Murray’s Wimbledon win and Brad’s Tour de France – that feat has lost some of it’s Kudos. Then we have AP McCoy’s Grand National win, and don’t forget the “freak” event of Frankie Dettori and his magnificent 7 over a decade ago. One of the things that you must factor into this market is the word “personality” – Now Chris Froome is near the top of the betting, he has an excellent chance of winning the Tour De France (again) – but unlike Bradley Wiggins does not have much of a personality

So what’s happening this year in the sporting Calendar that could give a unlikely winner?

Well the market hasn’t really got a clear favourite, Lizzy Yarnold is 2nd fav (who?) exactly…. Ronnie O’Sullivan is there too. Now Ronnie has a huge personality, but he has done it all in his sport so what makes him stand out?

There may well be someone who does something amazing that will feature in the betting. Like Rory winning all 4 majors. Or Steven Gerrard lifting the world Cup after scoring a hat rick in the final. Or Wazza crying like a baby when he misses a penalty that stops England beating Germany in the final. You get the picture.

Here is the recent winners:

spoty

 

But as it stands I have someone in mind, and have opened a position.

Lewis Hamilton. let me explain my thought process here. Now Lewis was denied the title the year he won the F1 crown by Sir Chris Hoy – and rightly so. But love him or loathe him, he certainly has a personality. I think as he has matured he is more likeable, and his gorgeous and very popular girlfriend Nicole Scherzinger does him no harm at all. But what about his chances of lifting the F1 crown this year? I am typing this up during the Malaysian GP – He is winning it very easliy. His car is obviously very strong and his rivals seem to be way behind. This happens in F1, but by the time they catch up he may be too far clear. I haven’t managed to get a load on, but has some at 9’s down to 8’s. I am sure there will be lots of chances to trade out over the summer, to at least get my stake back.

This is the sort of trading that isn’t that hard to work out. Give it a try!

Cheers

MG

spoty

 

4 thoughts on “SPOTY

  1. Nicely pointed out MG and given his race record I would imagine that he can only shorten in odds. The reasons that I stay clear of these markets is that I don’t watch much TV and have no idea where the vote is coming from i.e the public or their peers plus they are generally ‘hidden’ markets that you have to dig to find ……good shout all the same and looking forward to your May tuition day

    • Hi Nick, These are defiantly markets not to take too seriously. The year that Ryan Giggs won proves that. He came from nowhere on the back of a voting campaign then the week before, However, I plan to be all green well before if things go to plan. The reason I posted it was I was working on my material for the tuition day. I was going to talk about SPOTY, but I have so much more serious stuff I decided to take it out. What IS important though is the thought process. Whether or not he wins. It’s an example of how to structure a trade – collecting and using information that isn’t just about the event your trading to formulate a trade using the “bigger picture”. I imagine that many Racing traders sit and watch a screen full of graphs and charts relating to 1 horse. I always have the “bigger picture” in my head. Like any market – it is made up of “ordinary people” a complete cross section of the public and people who have privileged information. The really well informed are balanced by the “have no clues” and the odds are arrived at. All good fun πŸ™‚ Cheers MG

      • I often wondered if there was a way of playing the spoty market and the actual event of a front runner, hedging one against the other to guarantee a profit. Eg lay Hamilton to win his next race and back him on the spoty market or vice versa

        I am just thinking out loud, when I read this back I may regret not having that coffee this morning.

        • Hi Adrian, Your on the right track. But too early I think. Say hamilton needs to win the last 2 GP to win the title. He’s on Pole for the penultimate race and trading at 1.5. That’s the time to at Ly to ensure you have at least 30% profit. Saying that it also depends on the SPOTY market. But there will be lots of chances to hedge this I think. Good thinking – stay off the Coffee mate πŸ™‚ Cheers MG

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