Old General Tufto is a regular on the All Weather tracks. This was his 150th(?) race. So the old bugger knows the game. This by the way has nothing to do with how I trade him. That is irrelevant. But if you are like me, sit and watch pretty much every race, every day. You cannot but get drawn into the drama and romance of Racing. Although back on the freezing cold late January afternoon at Southwell, there was nothing to dramatic or romantic!
This was a competitive 1m Handicap. These runners race against each other week in week out and pretty much take it in turns to win. In the Generals last race he started favourite and was quite short considering the type of race. He downed tools and ran a stinker. I am concentrating on the first 3 in the market here to find a trade. But I am keeping a close eye for something to be backed in from the outsiders.
You will notice when the video starts I am mid trade and have a nice little green book. I don’t really want to comment too much on this trade. Mainly because I can’t remember it! What is important to note is we are 10 minutes from the start of the race. It is very rare you see me involved this far out. But due to the bad weather only Southwell and Wetherby survived. The race times were altered to accommodate an even gap. When this happens (only 1 or 2 meetings) the money arrives in the market differently. The best way I can try to explain it is that a certain amount will be matched prior to the off. Lets say for arguments sake £900,000. (ok I cheated and looked) When the video starts there is almost £266k matched. That means that £635k will be matched in this 10 minute timeframe. There is no other race in play. If I break this down…..
10-9mins – 32k
9-8 mins – 31k
8-7 mins – 26k
7-6 mins – 37k
6-5 mins – 56k
5-4 mins 78k
4-3 mins – 59k
3-2 mins 90k
2-1 mins 80k
1-0 mins 96k
0 – minus 38 seconds 45k
What is interesting about these numbers is how consistent the increase in volumes are. Of course this increases right before the off. But the gradual and relatively smooth increase in volume is very different to when you have a busy day with only 3 minutes between when a race ends and the next starts. This is very much something that needs to be taken into account. There is no way I would dream of getting involved with this race this far out while another race was in play. The previous race had actually finished 4 minutes before the start of this video.
I had seen an opportunity to make a few quid on Falcons Reign, that trade was coming to an end and I closed it for a profit of £15. If you look at the Last Priced matched “Candlesticks” to the left of the traded Volume Column, you will see that after moving in from 3.65 into as low as 3.25 the direction has now shifted. This may be temporary, (it was as it happens), but there was a change in opposition to this runner with pressure from different runners. I was happy to take a small profit here. There is plenty of time to go and a complete reassessment of the market was called for.
So at 1:46 into the video I open a Lay Trade for £200 on General Tufto. My reasons were that this was the original favourite, there had been plenty of time for it to be supported if that was going to happen. There was opposition to it in the market. The trainers very negative comments on TV were just the trigger that may make it drift even more. The cross over point at 6 is looming and I have my eye on some enhanced profit once it reaches 6. I need to say again. We still have 7 minutes to go here.
One of the things you will know I do is what I call “Progressive Staking”. I never go in with my full stake from the start. My aim is to “feel” my way into the market, then as my position improves I add to my stake, constantly reassessing my position. If it improves, I add more if I see the trend continuing. If I am worried things are starting to turn, then I take some out. In this case after my initial £200 which does not completely get matched at the 5.6 I requested. I leave the £61.56 in the queue and add to the trade with another £200 lay at 5.8 before moving the rest of the unmatched £61 to 5.8 too. My total stake is now £400 and my liability £1876.89 – (I have £15 green remember).
I always have an exit plan. In this case my exit would be at 5.4 for a loss of £24.51 on GT and an overall negative position of around £9. But if you keep your eye on the overall position indicator (just to the right of the countdown clock) you will see at no point does it go into a red negative book position.
As my position improves and goes towards 7 I decide that maybe I should ensure I walk away with a decent profit for my efforts here. The market is becoming a little static. I take back £100 by placing a back bet at 6.8 of £100. This is matched. The shortly afterwards another £150 at 7. I have only £150 of this trade left in the market now.
You will know if you follow my blog that I am a “greedy bastard” and cannot resist trying to scalp the odd tick as the market draws to a close. Inevitably it goes tits up, but I manage to get a scratch trade on it. My reason was I thought if Falcons reign broke the 3 if would have to drift a couple more ticks. I manage to close for £71 profit on GT for an overall Green book of £87.32
I did say it was a long video!!
As always I welcome your questions and comments
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