One of the many acronyms I use when I am talking to my Mentorship groups is W.G.S.T.F or What’s Gonna Stop The Favourite?. This video is a classic example of just that.
This is a nasty looking 4 runner race on the All Weather at Lingfield or a ‘horrible Wednesday afternoon. The favourite is Deinonychus. (I Googled this name as I thought it interesting. It is a Dinosaur or a Dutch Doom Metal Band) I like the 2nd one 🙂
My mantra is as I have already said W.G.S.T.F? This is pretty much the first thing I look at when assessing any race. If there is tangible opposition to it, then it may drift. If there isn’t then it won’t. That bit isn’t exactly rocket science is it? So why does that favourite want to come in? In every market almost without exception sees most of the money traded on the favourite. The shorter the price the more acute this is. Everyone wants to back a winner. Now in Betfair land, this is clouded by traders who crave liquidity to work with. It seems most (but by no means all) opportunities revolve around the favourite in one way or another. There are lots of Bettors who just want to go in the pub and tell their mates they backed the winner in the 1:50 at Lingers.
This may well be a flawed argument, but it’s a good starting point and has served me well for many years!
So opposition. If it’s not going to move in in price, then it’s needs something to stop it. In this race there are 3 other runners. The outsider is the only one remotely putting any pressure on the favourite. It’s influence at 8.6 is not as great as if it was 3.6. This is something to bear in mind. Now before I go steaming into this I need to make sure that the price isn’t going to bounce and I have some exit plan. You hear me talk about Cross Over points often. For me there are one of the most influential aspects of a trade. They are often at the bottom of a range by no coincidence either. They can be hard to breach, so if they are it’s a strong signal.
I wait for this to breach the crossover before I enter my trade. You will see I am quite aggressive with this trade. That’s because my confidence was high that I had it right. My exit? The exit is the most important part of the trade. You always need an escape route if something goes wrong. In this case it would have been just over the crossover at 2.02. After my initial £500 stake, you will see that I am making around £2.50 a tick (greened up), but over 2 I am losing around £5 stick. That’s why the crossover is so significant. My reward is half what I am risking (per tick). So backing just beneath a cross over is not a good idea unless you think you are standing on 10 feet of concrete.
The rest is just faffing about as it goes into freefall. Nothing clever at all about it. I called it right and made a few quid.
I just want to mention that my first induction into my Mentorship Program takes place on 26th January. I have just 4 places available. If you are interested the link is HERE
Thanks for watching, as always I welcome your questions and comments.